Electricity Demand Forecasting Research Articles

Forecasting Electricity Demand in Greece: A Functional Data Approach in High Dimensional Hourly Time Series

Forecasting Electricity Demand in Greece: A Functional Data Approach in High Dimensional Hourly Time Series

A Deep Learning Approach for Short-Term Electricity Demand Forecasting: Analysis of Thailand Data

Accurate electricity demand forecasting serves as a vital planning tool, enhancing the reliability of management decisions. Apart from that, achieving these aims, particularly in managing peak demand, faces challenges due to the industry’s volatility and the ongoing increase in residential energy use. Our research suggests that employing deep learning algorithms, such as recurrent neural networks (RNN), long short-term memory (LSTM), and gated recurrent units (GRU), holds promise for the accurate forecasting of electrical energy demand in time series data. This paper presents the construction and testing of three deep learning models across three separate scenarios. Scenario 1 involves utilizing data from all-day demand. In Scenario 2, only weekday data are considered. Scenario 3 uses data from non-working days (Saturdays, Sundays, and holidays). The models underwent training and testing across a wide range of alternative hyperparameters to determine the optimal configuration. The proposed model’s validation involved utilizing a dataset comprising half-hourly electrical energy demand data spanning seven years from the Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand (EGAT). In terms of model performance, we determined that the RNN-GRU model performed better when the dataset was substantial, especially in scenarios 1 and 2. On the other hand, the RNN-LSTM model is excellent in Scenario 3. Specifically, the RNN-GRU model achieved an MAE (mean absolute error) of 214.79 MW and an MAPE (mean absolute percentage error) of 2.08% for Scenario 1, and an MAE of 181.63 MW and MAPE of 1.89% for Scenario 2. Conversely, the RNN-LSTM model obtained an MAE of 226.76 MW and an MAPE of 2.13% for Scenario 3. Furthermore, given the expanded dataset in Scenario 3, we can anticipate even higher precision in the results.

The Role of Forecasts in Planning for Energy Infrastructure: A Historical Look at Past Futures in Postwar Quebec

The Role of Forecasts in Planning for Energy Infrastructure: A Historical Look at Past Futures in Postwar Quebec

Long-term electrical energy demand forecasting by using artificial intelligence/machine learning techniques

Long-term electrical energy demand forecasting by using artificial intelligence/machine learning techniques

The Dynamics of Electricity Consumption in the Economic Prosperity of Nepal

The paper examines the relationship between the dynamics of electricity consumption and Nepal's economic prosperity. Descriptive methodologies and statistical tools are used in this quantitative study that gathers data from secondary sources. The patterns of power consumption are influenced by population increase, urbanization, government regulations, and technical developments, all of which affect Nepal's economic development and social well-being. This paper uses an interdisciplinary approach to show how crucial it is to address energy-related issues to realize socioeconomic potential. Economic growth is the main factor driving the dynamic of power consumption. The finding reveals that the autonomous electricity consumption is 4.13 kilowatt hours shows if income increases by USD 100, the estimated increase in average electricity consumption is 54 kWh. Indicates that increase in per capita income, increases the consumption of electricity, and economic growth are strongly correlated. The result from the forecast analysis shows that the unrestrained demand for electricity is projected to increase from an estimated 7,888 million kilowatt-hours (million kWh) in 2019–2020 to 13,831 million kilowatt-hours in 2029–2030 which seems closer and validates the Electricity Demand Forecast for 2014 to 2040 by Government of Nepal. The result shows that the dynamics of electricity consumption and economic prosperity are strongly correlated. Policymakers, energy planners, investors, and other stakeholders must acknowledge the issue and make a call to action to support initiatives that enhance economic growth, access to energy, and sustainable energy use.

Electricity demand forecasting at distribution and household levels using explainable causal graph neural network

Forecasting electricity demand is an essential part of the smart grid to ensure a stable and reliable power grid. With the increasing integration of renewable energy resources into the grid, forecasting the demand for electricity is critical at all levels, from the distribution to the household. Most existing forecasting methods, however, can be considered black-box models as a result of deep digitalization enablers, such as deep neural networks, which remain difficult to interpret by humans. Moreover, capture of the inter-dependencies among variables presents a significant challenge for multivariate time series forecasting. In this paper we propose eXplainable Causal Graph Neural Network (X-CGNN) for multivariate electricity demand forecasting that overcomes these limitations. As part of this method, we have intrinsic and global explanations based on causal inferences as well as local explanations based on post-hoc analyses. We have performed extensive validation on two real-world electricity demand datasets from both the household and distribution levels to demonstrate that our proposed method achieves state-of-the-art performance.

Strengthening energy transition through effective urban electric demand prediction: A multidisciplinary exploration of AI, policy, and administrative strategies

This research endeavors to strengthen energy transition in urban management through the enhanced accuracy of electric load demand forecasting within a multi-faceted approach considering legal and policy decision making associate with the proposed problem. Firstly, a prediction model is devised utilizing an evolving Peephole LSTM (PLSTM). This sophisticated architecture incorporates peephole connections, allowing for enhanced information flow within the network. Subsequently, a hybrid evolutionary algorithm is introduced for fine-tuning the parameters of the peephole LSTM (PLSTM). This hybrid approach amalgamates the whale optimization algorithm (WOA) and cultural algorithm (CA), harnessing their complementary strengths for optimal parameter configuration. The study extends beyond model development to address the practical implications of real-time electric load forecasting. A comprehensive stability analysis is conducted on datasets sourced from an urban area, offering insights into the model's reliability and performance under dynamic conditions. This tripartite investigation not only contributes to the advancement of predictive modeling in electric load demand forecasting but also underscores the significance of robust parameter optimization and stability assessments for real-world applicability in urban energy management. The simulation results on the practical dataset clearly show the high robustness and capabilities of the proposed model. By combining cutting-edge model architecture, hybrid evolutionary optimization, and thorough stability assessments, this study not only contributes to the forefront of predictive modeling in electric load forecasting but also emphasizes the critical importance of parameter optimization and stability evaluations for the seamless integration of such models into the dynamic landscape of urban energy management.

Research on Short Term Prediction of Electricity Demand in Hubei Province

The balance of electricity supply and demand is the basic condition for promoting the economic development of our country and improving the living standards of the people, and scientific forecasting of electricity demand is the premise of ensuring the balance of electricity supply and demand. Hubei Province is superior in geographical location, and its electricity demand and economic aggregate both rank high in the country, but due to the direct impact of the epidemic, its electricity demand has been affected. This paper uses OLS regression to obtain the linear regression equation of the three indicators of GDP and the proportion of the secondary industry structure before the epidemic from 2005 to 2018, and uses the Gray Forecast Model-assisted scenario analysis method to analyze the electricity consumption of Hubei Province under the influence of multiple factors, and predicts the electricity consumption of Hubei Province from 2019 to 2021 after removing the impact of the epidemic, and makes a short-term forecast of the electricity demand of the province from 2024 to 2029.

Hybrid LSTM-Graph Convolutional Neural Network with Wavelet Transform and Correlation Analysis for Electrical Demand Forecasting

Hybrid LSTM-Graph Convolutional Neural Network with Wavelet Transform and Correlation Analysis for Electrical Demand Forecasting

Load Balance Forecasting Based on Hybrid Deep Neural Network

Load forecasting is the foundation of utility design, and it is a fundamental business problem in the utility industry. Load forecasting, mainly referring to forecasting electricity demand and energy, is being used throughout all segments of the electric power industry, including generation, transmission, distribution, and retail. In this paper, a long short-term memory network with a hybrid approach is improved with a dense algorithm and proposed for electricity load forecasting. A long short-term memory network is designed to effectively exhibit the dynamic behavior of load time series. The proposed model is tested for Panama study including historical data and weather variables. The prediction accuracy is validated by performance metrics, and the best of the metrics are attained when mean absolute error is 5.262, mean absolute percentage error 0.0000376, and root mean square error 18.243. The experimental results show a high prediction rate for load balance forecasting of electric power consumption.

Advancing electric demand forecasting through the temporal fusion transformer model

This research paper introduces a cutting-edge approach to electric demand forecasting by incorporating the Temporal Fusion Transformer (TFT). As the landscape of demand forecasting becomes increasingly intricate, precise predictions are vital for effective energy management. To tackle this challenge, we leverage the sequential and temporal patterns in an extensive electric demand dataset spanning from 2003 to 2014. Our proposed Temporal Fusion Transformer model combines attention mechanisms with the transformer architecture, enabling it to adeptly capture intricate temporal dependencies. Thorough data preprocessing, including temporal embedding and external features, enhances prediction accuracy. Through rigorous evaluation, the TFT model surpasses existing forecasting techniques, showcasing its capacity for accurate, resilient, and adaptive predictions. This research contributes to the advancement of electric demand forecasting, harnessing the TFT’s capabilities to excel in capturing diverse temporal patterns. The findings hold the potential to enhance energy management and support decision-making in the energy sector, bridging the gap between innovation and practical utility.

Msf, a forecasting library to predict short-term electricity demand based on multiple seasonal time series

Transmission system operators have a growing need for more accurate forecasting of electricity demand. Current electricity systems largely require demand forecasting so that the electricity market establishes electricity prices as well as the programming of production units. The companies that are part of the electrical system use exclusive software to obtain predictions, based on the use of time series and prediction tools, whether statistical or artificial intelligence. However, the most common form of prediction is based on hybrid models that use both technologies. In any case, it is software with a complicated structure, with a large number of associated variables and that requires a high computational load to make predictions. On many occasions, the resources to reach these predictions are not available to researchers. In this paper we present a MATLAB® toolbox created to predict electrical demand. The toolbox implements multiple seasonal time series forecasting methods such as new generalized multiple seasonal Holt–Winters exponential smoothing models and neural network models, among others. The models presented include novel discrete interval mobile seasonalities (DIMS) to improve forecasting on special days. The paper also describes the computational analysis conducted to apply the toolbox in various electrical systems in Europe, where the results obtained can be seen. The use of this library opens a new way of research for the use of models with discrete and complex seasonalities in other fields of application.

Forecasting electricity demand of municipalities through artificial neural networks and metered supply point classification

This study develops a methodology to characterise and forecast large consumers’ electricity demand, particularly municipalities, with hundreds of different metered supply points based on the previous characterisation of facilities’ consumption. Demand forecasting allows consumers to improve their participation in electricity markets and manage their electricity consumption. The method considers a classification by different types of metered supply points combined with artificial neural networks to obtain hourly forecasts using well-known parameters such as day types, hourly temperature, the last hour of electricity consumption, and sunrise and sunset time. We apply the methodology to the municipality of Valencia using over five hundred hourly load profiles for a year during 2017 and 2018. Our results present aggregated forecasts with a maximum Mean Absolute Percentage Error of 3.8% per day, outperforming the same forecast without classifying Metered Supply Points. We conclude that a correct electricity demand forecast for a consumer with different types of consumption does not need submetering, but characterising Metered Supply Points is an option with lower costs that allows for better predictions.

Optimization path of China’s energy industry structure under low carbon economy situation

The study discusses the main aspects of optimizing the structure of China’s energy industry in a situation with a low-carbon economy. To build a model for forecasting electricity demand, the method of partial least squares regression is used. The basic scenario and the scenario with restrictions are set taking into account the peculiarities of the development of a new normal economy. Based on the baseline scenario and the restricted scenario, the total energy demand, energy consumption structure and CO2 emissions in China are projected. Taking into account energy, economic and environmental factors, a multi-purpose optimization model of the energy consumption structure was built and the structure of China’s energy consumption and the corresponding CO2 emissions under optimization scenarios were obtained. This research describes revise the energy consumption structure in China, should reducing energy consumption and carbon dioxide emissions is very helpful.

Sensitivity analysis and comparative assessment of novel hybridized boosting method for forecasting the power consumption

This research focuses on the crucial task of accurately forecasting electricity consumption, a key concern in modern societies where electricity is essential for industries, healthcare, and transportation. The study explores the complex factors influencing electricity usage, aiming to improve the accuracy of consumption forecasts. Recognizing the limitations of current forecasting techniques, which often fail to account for the detailed interplay of variables affecting consumption, it introduces innovative methods to address these challenges. By employing sensitivity analysis and advanced hybrid boosting algorithms, such as LightGBM and CatBoost optimized with Arithmetic Optimization and Fruit Fly Optimization Algorithms, the research analyzes time-series data on electricity use, weather conditions, and usage timing across three power distribution networks. The sensitivity analysis reveals the significant impact of customer behavior and temperature on consumption patterns. The predictive models, especially the optimized LightGBM, demonstrate remarkable accuracy, with rates of 0.9996 and 0.9968 for training and testing datasets, respectively. These results highlight the effectiveness of the proposed methodologies in providing accurate and reliable forecasts of electricity demand, offering valuable insights for the energy sector to manage resources more efficiently and meet consumption needs effectively.

Electricity Load Demand Prediction for Microgrid Energy Management System Using Hybrid Adaptive Barnacle‐Mating Optimizer with Artificial Neural Network Algorithm

In recent years, one of the primary causes of high electricity consumption is the growing global population and the availability of power‐demanding smart devices. As a result, accurate load forecasting tools are required for effective energy conservation in microgrids. Various simulation tools and artificial intelligence (AI)‐based methods have been used to make the best forecasts of electricity demand. Furthermore, conventional systems are static and based solely on historical data. To address this practical need, this work aims to create a machine learning (ML) model for short‐term load forecasting based on feature selection and parameter optimization. This research proposes a hybrid short‐term load demand prediction approach that combines an adaptive barnacle‐mating optimizer (ABMO) and an artificial neural network (ANN). When compared to the regression tree (RT), support vector machine (SVM), ANN, and particle swarm optimization‐based ANN (PSO‐ANN) algorithms, the proposed ABMO‐ANN algorithm reduces mean absolute percentage errors by 67.69%, 64.58%, 59.18%, and 42.02%, respectively. Compared to conventional RT, SVM, ANN, and PSO‐ANN algorithm, the hybrid ABMO with ANN outperforms them based on mean absolute percentage error, root mean square error, correlation coefficient , symmetric mean absolute percentage error, and agreement index (d).

A novel outlier calendrical heterogeneity reconstruction deep learning model for electricity demand forecasting

The development of an accurate electricity demand forecasting model is of paramount importance for promoting global energy efficiency and sustainability. Nonetheless, the presence of outliers and inappropriate model training can result in suboptimal performance. To tackle these challenges, this study explores the potential of Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) and active learning theory as forecasting solutions, offering high efficiency and advantages for long time series. In this study, a hybrid model that combines Isolation Forest (IF), Outlier Reconstruction (OR), CNN and Random Forest (RF) is conducted to mitigate computational complexity and enhance the accuracy of electricity demand forecasting in the presence of outliers. IF is employed to detect outliers in electricity demand time series, while OR is used to reconstruct subsequences based on calendrical heterogeneity for training. CNN is applied for both training and forecasting, and the final output is combined using RF. The effectiveness of the proposed IF-OR-CNN-RF model is validated using electricity data collected from recent sources in Australia at different sampling frequency. The experimental results demonstrate that, in comparison with other popular CNN-based electricity demand forecasting models, IF-OR-CNN-RF model outperforms with significantly improved performance metrics. Specifically, Mean Absolute Error (MAE), Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE) and R-squared values are 77.92, 179.18 and 0.9769 in 5-minute frequency; 162.67, 353.96 and 0.9775 in 10-minute frequency; 841.27, 1374.79 and 0.9622 in 30-minute frequency; 2746.01, 3824.00 and 0.9262 in 60-minute frequency; 9106.08, 12269.04 and 0.8044 in 120-minute frequency. IF-OR-CNN-RF model represents a valuable framework for future electricity demand forecasting, particularly in scenarios involving outliers.

Enhancing Electrical Power Demand Prediction Using LSTM-Based Deep Learning Models for Local Energy Communities

The pursuit of accurate electrical power demand forecasting has led to the application of deep learning algorithms, notably demonstrating promising outcomes despite the prerequisite of substantial training data. This study pioneers a new learning paradigm, employing sophisticated deep learning models specifically, Long Short-Term Memory networks and recurrent neural networks (RNNs). Leveraging historical load data, temperature, wind speed, and day-ahead predicted spot prices, this approach follows a structured flow involving data preprocessing, sequence generation, model training, and subsequent prediction of future load demand using LSTM-based RNN variants. The study’s paramount findings underscore the substantial advancement achieved by this proposed methodology over prevailing techniques. The method significantly improves prediction accuracy by over 11%, demonstrating the efficacy of deep learning models and a significant leap forward in forecasting precision. Beyond its superior predictive capabilities, this novel strategy serves as a catalyst for enhancing energy distribution management in local energy communities. Its effectiveness lies not only in its precision but also in enabling the optimization and cost-effective control of energy distribution, vital for sustainable energy management in these communities. Ultimately, this pioneering approach presents a robust solution poised to revolutionize the landscape of electrical power demand forecasting and its practical application in local energy systems.

Electricity demand error corrections with attention bi-directional neural networks

Reliable forecast of electricity demand is crucial to stability, supply, and management of electricity grids. Short-term hourly and sub-hourly demand forecasts are difficult due to the stochastic nature of electricity demand. To improve the electricity demand forecasts, artificial neural networks are combined with attention-based bi-directional neural network as well as Error Correction methods, and Bayesian hyperparameter optimizations. As part of the hybrid VMD-CABLSTM-ANN-EC model, the intrinsic mode functions, representing distinct predictive features, are separated from electricity demand data using variational mode decomposition algorithm. For predicting each intrinsic mode function and respective error time series, convolutional neural networks-bi-directional long short-term memory algorithms are applied. In a second stage, error time series are split, followed by a model to predict the error series’ intrinsic mode functions, and a final integration stage to predict the error. The results of the proposed VMD-CABLSTM-ANN-EC model are benchmarked against decomposition-based and standalone models at substations in Queensland, Australia. The proposed VMD-CABLSTM-ANN-EC model outperformed all benchmark models. By splitting the predictor and target variables, it will be shown that the variational model decomposition method improves error corrections by revealing key features of historical demand data. Using error correction method in short-term electricity demand modelling can provide greater confidence in the prediction of electricity demand. The models can be used by energy providers for market analysis and insight research, to manage power failure risk, and make financial decisions.

A Multitask Integrated Deep-Learning Probabilistic Prediction for Load Forecasting

Spinning reserve without accurate load forecasting can lead to automatic disconnection of critical loads by under-frequency load shedding devices. Such a predicament poses a grave threat to the economic and social welfare of the affected region, and in extreme scenarios, can result in a debilitating grid collapse. However, existing models lack the deep feature extraction capability and cannot accurately predict the uncertainty of electricity demand. Thus, a multitask integrated deep-learning probabilistic prediction with multidimensional feature extraction based on granularity information and quantile regression is explored in this study to solve the insufficient feature extraction problem in probabilistic prediction. In the proposed scheme, we designed a multi-layer feature extraction framework, which information granularity based on fuzzy rough sets to extract time-domain features, multilayer Laplace operators to extract features globally, and quantile regression recurrent neural network variants to extract time context information. In addition, the Pareto integration method is extended to capture better individuals. The experimental results demonstrate that the proposed system can effectively improve deterministic forecasting and uncertainty analysis of electricity demand and manage daily fluctuations.