Electricity Consumption In Nigeria Research Articles

Household electricity consumption determinants in major Nigeria cities

The increasing epileptic electricity supply, mainly in the residential areas of Nigerian cities, has been linked to the incorrect knowledge of the numerous socio-economic and physical indices that influence household electricity usage. Most of the seemingly identified explanatory factors were done at macro level which does not give a clear estimate of this electricity demand. The thrust of the study is to analyse empirically the household electricity determinants in Nigerian cities with a view to evolving a more informed and sustainable energy policy decision. Multistage area cluster sampling method was adopted in the study where 769 copies of structured questionnaire were distributed to electricity users of prepaid meters in five major Nigerian cities. The research hypothesis was tested using the multiple linear regression statistical tool. The result revealed that nine variables which include age (r = 0.05, p-value: 0.05), household income (r = 0.00, p-value: 0.05), number of hours that people stay outside the house (r = 0.043, p-value: 0.05), number of teenagers at home, (r = 0.006, p-value: 0.01) number of electrical appliances (r = 0.016, p-value: 0.01), type of house (r = 0.012, p-value: 0.01), hours that the electrical appliances are used (r = 0.043, p-value: 0.05), weather condition, (r = 0.011, p-value: 0.05) and the location of the building (r = 0.045, p-value: 0.05) were significant in determining the household electricity consumption. Policies based on the findings will give energy and urban planners an empirical basis for accurate and robust forecasting of the determinants that influence household electricity consumption in Nigeria that is devoid of any speculation or unfounded predictions.

Modeling and forecasting electricity consumption in Nigeria using Arima and Arimax time series models

This study compared the extrapolation strengths of two models: Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) and Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average with an Exogenous Variable (ARIMAX) in the forecast of Nigeria's electricity consumption. Annual data on power generation and consumption from the Central Bank of Nigeria statistical bulletin for 2006 and 2016 over a 51-year period (1970-2020) was used. Industrial and residential electricity consumptions were examined for possible unit roots (non-stationarity) using the Augmented Dickey-Fuller test approach. The ADF test result showed that the time series achieved a stationary state for the variables under consideration at first difference. Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) and Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) were used to assess the performance of each models. Comparing the ARIMA and ARIMAX forecast models, ARIMA(0, 1, 1) emerged for modelling and forecasting industrial electricity consumption in Nigeria while ARIMAX (1, 1, 1) with installation capacity as exogenous variable was suitable for modelling and forecasting residential electricity consumption in Nigeria. The study recommended that for optimal residential electricity consumption in Nigeria, installation capacity and the total power generation in Nigeria should be enhanced.

IMPACT OF PETROLEUM ELECTRICITY AND HYDROELECTRIC AND CONSUMPTION ON ECONOMIC GROWTH IN NIGERIA

The study examined the impact of hydroelectric and petroleum electricity consumption on economic growth in Nigeria. The research design adopted for the study was ex-post-facto. The data used for the study were drawn from secondary sources. The sources of data were from World Bank statistical database and CBN Statistical Bulletin (2020) for a period of between 1990 and 2019. Based on the research objectives and unit root test of the study, the Autoregressive Distributed Lagged (ARDL) and the Error Correction Model (ECM) were used to determine the relationship between hydroelectric and petroleum electricity consumption variables and economic growth indicators in Nigeria and the impact of hydroelectric and petroleum electricity consumption on economic growth in Nigeria. The Error Correction Model (ECM) of the study and after examining the long-run impact of the independent variables in the model of the impact of hydroelectric and petroleum electricity consumption on economic growth in Nigeria. The result shows that the ECM parameters were negative (-) and significant which are given -0.546. This means that 55 percent disequilibrium in the previous period is being corrected to restore equilibrium in the current period in the respective models. The ARDL long-run results on the impact of hydroelectric and petroleum electricity consumption on economic growth in Nigeria revealed that hydroelectric and Petroleum Electricity Consumption have positive and significant impact on real gross domestic product in Nigeria. Therefore, the study recommended that the government should increase the hydroelectric and petroleum electricity consumption in Nigeria by reducing the unit price of the petroleum electricity consumption in Nigeria in other to increase the household and industrial usage for increase economic activities through the household and industrialisation in Nigeria through the firms and young industries in Nigeria which in turn increase the sustainable economic growth in Nigeria.

Nexus among electricity consumption, foreign direct investment and aggregate economic activity towards Nigeria's economic performance: evidence from a trivariate causality model.

It is evident that there is nexus among electricity consumption, foreign direct investment and aggregate economic activity. Unfortunately, the causal relationship among the three variables in Nigeria based on modern econometric methods, recent time-series data and ways that sufficiently cater for inflation and population growth has not been adequately investigated. This study, among other things, used a trivariate vector error correction model, autoregressive distributed lag bounds test for cointegration and Granger causality test to analyse the causal relationship among electricity consumption, foreign direct investment and aggregate economic activity based on time-series data from 1970 to 2018. The study found the presence of neutral causality between electricity consumption and aggregate economic activity in the short run as well as unidirectional causality from aggregate economic activity to electricity consumption in the long run. The study also found the presence of unidirectional causality from foreign direct investment to electricity consumption as well as neutral causality between foreign direct investment and aggregate economic activity in both the short run and the long run. It is therefore recommended that steps should be taken to adequately increase foreign direct investment and aggregate economic activity in ways that will guarantee an optimal increase in electricity consumption in Nigeria.

Effect of Inadequate Electrification on Nigeria’s Economic Development and Environmental Sustainability

In this study, the impact of the electricity crisis on the economic growth of Nigeria is presented. Unlike other existing studies that checked the effect of electricity consumption on economic development or environmental sustainability for different countries, the present study will further present a techno-economic analysis of a proffered solution to the imminent electricity crisis. Time-series regression models are used to analyze the effect of electricity consumption on economic development and environmental sustainability while RETScreen professional software is used to perform a techno-economic analysis and determine the feasibility of a 500-kW microgrid Solar Photovoltaic (PV) system integrated for electricity generation. From the analysis results, a strong positive correlation effect is evident between electricity consumption and GNI, as well as a strong negative correlation between electricity consumption and gross domestic savings. Also, strong positive correlation effects are evident in the case of carbon emissions by buildings, by the power industry, and by other combustion industries on electricity consumption in Nigeria. Considering the net present value, internal rate of return and payback periods, the use of solar PV systems for electricity generation is feasible in the 12 different locations in Nigeria studied in this research. The most feasible area for solar PV installation is the northern part of Nigeria as Gombe and Kaduna recorded a simple PBP and an equity PBP are 6.3 years and 7.4 years respectively.

Fraud Detection in Customers’ Electricity Consumption in Nigeria Using Support Vector Machine and C4.5 Decision Tree Algorithms

Over the years, Electricity theft has been estimated to cost billions of Naira per year in Nigeria. To reduce electricity theft, electric utilities are leveraging data collected by using data analytics to identify abnormal consumption trends and possible fraud. In this study, use of data analytics in detecting electricity theft, and a metric that leverages this threat model in order to evaluate and compare anomaly detectors. Data mining technology have helped several industries and sectors in improving their various forms of technology, this study therefore employ machine learning algorithms for the classification of fraud detection in the electricity consumption of costumers. In this project, Support Vector Machine (SVM) and C4.5 Decision tree classification algorithms were employed for fraud detection using customer electricity consumption data. SVM and C4.5 achieved 63.4% and 65.9% accuracy respectively. Thus, C4.5 outperformed SVM based on the dataset experimented in this project. Keywords: Active databases, distributed processing, intelligent processing, optimization, query processor

Causality Nexus Between Electricity Consumption and Growth in Nigeria Manufacturing Sector

The study examined the causal relationship between electricity consumption and manufacturing sector’s growth in Nigeria using time series data covering the period 1986 – 2017. Multiple least square regression method was used to capture the effect of electricity consumption and other variables on manufacturing sector’s growth, with the aid of Eview software. Granger causality test was conducted to examine the direction of causality between electricity consumption and manufacturing sector’s growth. The study found that electricity consumption has positive and significant effect on the growth of the manufacturing sector. Also, the study revealed an evidence of unidirectional causality from manufacturing sector’s growth to electricity consumption. It was also infered from the trend analysis that Electricity Consumption in Nigeria has a positive and direct impact on the growth of Nigeria Manufacturing Sector. Since the study shows how electricity is vital to manufacturing sector, any impediment to electricity will grossly affect manufacturing sector’s growth. To enhance sustainable growth in manufacturing sector, appropriate reforms must come up to ensure stable electricity in Nigeria. Keywords: Electricity consumption, Causality, Trend analysis, Manufacturing sector. DOI: 10.7176/RHSS/10-6-04 Publication date: March 31 st 2020

Low Carbon Transition of Residential Electricity Consumption in Nigeria: A System Dynamics Modeling Approach

It is imperative that Nigeria reduces wastage in residential electricity consumption and motivate energy saving behaviors through energy efficiency measures. These strategies aim to minimize frequent power sheds, which in turn increase reliability, thus benefiting the environment and electricity consumers. This article examines the effects of such innovative approaches to electricity savings in Nigeria through: 1) prepaid electricity metering systems and 2) fast replacements of inefficient and aging appliances. Relationships between residential electricity consumption, energy efficiency, and carbon footprint were also assessed vis-a-vis the replacement of old energy appliances and analogue electricity billing systems with more efficient devices and through prepaid metering systems, respectively. These techniques intend to promote energy saving behaviors. A System Dynamics model built on Stella platform, is used to analyze the implication of energy efficiency policy implementation on residential electricity consumption based on a simulation period of 41 years (2010 - 2050). Secondary data were sourced from the Bureau of Statistics, published articles, Nigerian power sector, World Bank, and primary data using cross sectional surveys of residential electricity consumers. Results, not only revealed that availability and utilization of prepaid electric meters and efficient appliances would motivate electricity saving behaviors, but also showed that efficient technologies could be the main drivers to future energy savings. Results also showed that carbon emissions were cut down by 45% in 2050. In addition, changes in electricity tariffs did not have any consequential effect on electricity consumption, but would rather influence electricity demand. Also, large number of occupant per house might have a negative impact on the Nigerian economic growth. Finally, results suggest that subsidies should be used on new household appliances as an effective energy policy measures. The developed model can be replicated in similar sectors in other emerging economies.

Energy efficiency in housing and socio-economic development in Nigeria

Energy efficient houses consume less energy while maintaining or improving the comfort conditions of occupants. Energy efficient buildings result in less environmental impact and are economically and environmentally sustainable. Residential buildings account for the majority of electricity consumption in Nigeria. Because of the poor state of energy generation and transmission in Nigeria energy efficiency measures are necessary to reduce the energy required in houses. This would substantially reduce the dependence on the grid electricity supply. Energy efficient buildings have tremendous benefits in social, economic, and environmental terms. In economic terms the production of energy-efficient buildings result in growing market demand with higher quality and innovative buildings, and in social terms it leads to improved urban space and local climate, and liveable buildings. Energy efficient buildings also ensure resource efficiency, and reduction of Green House Gas emissions. Energy efficiency in buildings starts from the design of buildings, and through to construction and operation. The objective of this paper is the examination of energy efficiency in housing in Nigeria and its impact upon socio-economic development in the country. The paper focuses on energy-efficient design strategies, and initiatives to achieve low carbon emission in housing in Nigeria The paper examines the housing situation in Nigeria and the phenomenon of urbanisation which has led to unplanned urban growth, grievous housing poverty, slum formation, and near collapse of urban services and infrastructure particularly electricity supply. It affirms the need to adopt energy efficiency in housing and it examines passive design strategies and low carbon initiatives in housing construction. It takes a critical look at the adoption of sustainability practices in housing. The paper asserts that energy efficiency would enhance the growth of electricity consumption and boost the socio-economic development of the country. The paper concludes that energy efficiency is capable of engendering socio-economic development of the country particularly productivity and income growth.

Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) Model for Forecasting and Predicting Industrial Electricity Consumption in Nigeria

The main aim of this paper is to model the industrial power consumption in Nigeria with the Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) model and then forecast the industrial power consumed for the next five years beyond the available data. About 45 years (1970 to 2015) dataset was obtained from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) and other relevant organizations. The data includes population, rainfall, electricity connectivity and temperature which are the explanatory variables. Matlab was used along with the dataset to train and evaluate the ANFIS model which was then used to forecast the industrial power consumption in Nigeria for the years 2016 to 2020.The prediction performance of the ANFIS model was compared to those of Autoregressive Moving Average model and Moving Average model. From the result obtained, ANFIS gave R-square value of 0.9977 (99.77%), SSE value of 395.3674 and RMSE value of 2.9641. The regression coefficient of 99.77% shows that about 99.77% of the variations in the industrial power consumption in Nigeria for the years 1970 to 2015 are explained by the selected explanatory variables. The forecast result showed that the Nigerian industrial power consumption would be about 374.7 MW at the end of 2020 which is about 73.1% increase from the industrial power consumption in 2015. As such, based on the industrial power consumption in 2015, over 73% increment in power supply to the industrial sector will be required to satisfy the industrial sector's power demand in 2020.

Impact of Deregulation on Residential Electricity Consumption in Nigeria: 1980-2017

This study is an assessment of the impact of deregulation of the electricity market on the residential consumption of electricity in Nigeria from 1980 to 2017.Among the specific objectives set for the study are to examine the impact of deregulation on residential demand for electricity in Nigeria and to investigate if the residential demand for electricity in Nigeria responds to change in tariff (pricing)regime; Annual time series data on residential electricity consumption (REC), electricity tariff (ETA); income (ICM) and deregulation (a dummy variable) were collected from national electricity regulation council (NERC) and central bank of Nigeria (CBN) respectively and were analyzed using augmented dickey-fuller (ADF) and Philip-peron (PP) unit root test, co-integration test and vector error correction model (VECM),the result of the analysis shows the long run relation among the variables and the estimated long run elasticity values are:0.25 on income GDP and electricity price was -0.431 on the coefficient of deregulation (dummy) has negative sign and statistically significant suggesting that deregulation leads to a slight decline in electricity consumption. It is therefore recommended that, sustainable development of the electricity power industry should be ensured. Higher energy efficiency standards for electricity appliances, organized appropriate pricing policy and introduction of enlightenment campaign to educate people to be efficient in using electricity.

Dynamics of Residential Electricity Consumption in Nigeria

An important issue facing energy planners and policy makers in the energy industry is obtaining a better understanding of the drivers of residential energy consumption over the last decades. In Nigeria, the strong dependence on fossil fuels has been recognized as a security threat and the continuous residential electricity supply problems that have been noticed has been linked to the inability of energy planners to give proper analysis and predictions of the influence of the various socio-economic and physical factors on the residential electricity consumption across the country. Most of the predictions made have been speculative and devoid of empirically basis. Hence, this study was aimed at empirically determining the various factors that affect the residential electricity consumption rate in Nigeria. The study span was from 1985 to 2016 using time series data which were collected through secondary sources. The study covered the six geopolitical zones of the country and the multiple linear regression statistical technique was used to analyze the data. The study showed that residential electricity consumption rate in Nigeria was significantly influenced by the eight out of the nine socio-economic and physical explanatory variables that were considered in the study (p < 0.05; R 2 = 0.92). The eight significant variables were per capita income, degree of urbanization, population density, Number of households per capita, Price of Kerosene, number of households with electricity, Temperature, and employment rate. These factors should be taken in consideration in the formulation of policy measures to that pertains to electricity consumption in Nigeria.

An Examination of the Impact of Power Sector Reform on Manufacturing and Services Sector in Nigeria: an Empirical Analysis

&lt;p&gt;&lt;em&gt;The main objective of this study is to empirically examine the impact of Power Sector Reform on Manufacturing and Services Sector in Nigeria between 1999-2016. The study employed secondary annual time series data sourced from World Bank database (2016). The methodology adopted for the study was Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF); a test for long-run relationship using ARDL Bounds Testing approach with analysis of long-run and short-run dynamics in the model. A striking revelation from the study is the inverse relationship that exists between manufacturing output and electricity consumption in Nigeria within the period referenced. &lt;/em&gt;&lt;em&gt;This negative relationship is not unconnected with widespread allegation of misappropriation of budgeted funds for the Power Sector by successive administrations in Nigeria since 1999. It must be stated in clear terms that constant and consistent electricity generation, transmission and distribution is sine-qua-none for the growth of the national economy. Virtually all sectors of the economy depend on the supply of electricity to do business and so the lack of this vital ingredient of growth contributes in no small measure in stagnating economic growth and development. Efforts at reforming the power sector can only be fruitful when ALL stakeholders in the power sector including the political class put away their personal agendas and take the bull by the horn towards rescuing the nation from the looming danger of stagnant economic growth. Furthermore, &lt;/em&gt;&lt;em&gt;there is the need for the Nigerian government to come up with new, better and alternative ways of improving energy generation and supply, as well as proper maintenance of electricity infrastructure in the country.&lt;/em&gt;&lt;/p&gt;

Assessment of the Governance System Regarding Adoption of Energy Efficient Appliances by Households in Nigeria

The adoption of energy efficient electrical appliances by households has a great potential to reduce electricity consumption in Nigeria. A well-formulated and implemented policy (mix) to spur adoption is said to be required to drive this process. This article presents an assessment of policies that aim to spur adoption among households, and the related governance system. The analytical framework used for this analysis is the Governance Assessment Tool (GAT). Data collection involved semi-structured interviews, a review of policy documents, and secondary quantitative data. The results show that policies in Nigeria had little effect in meeting pre-set goals. The governance system was found to be weakly developed due to a lack of policy, the overlapping work of different governmental organizations, a lack of appropriate resources, and a lack of householders’ involvement in agenda-setting and decision-making processes. Current actions mostly depend on local programmes that run via donor aid. They include the free exchange of CFL bulbs and metering studies of end user energy consumption. The results add further insight in the fields of governance and policy on energy efficiency issues in developing countries. This article also provides suggestions for the design of policies that target the adoption of energy efficient electrical appliances among households in Nigeria.

Time Series Analysis of Industrial Electricity Consumption in Nigeria Using Harvey Model and Autoregressive Model

In this paper time series modeling and forecasting of industrial electricity consumption in Nigeria is presented. Specifically, Harvey Model and Autoregressive Model, (AR) are used. The data used are obtained from Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) Statistical Bulletin for industrial electricity consumption ranging from 1979 – 2014. The results shows that Harvey Model has (r 2 ) = 80.1% and RMSE = 65.2513 whereas Autoregressive Model has (r 2 ) = 50.1% and RMSE = 71.3985. Obviously, Harvey model has better prediction accuracy than the AR model. The Harvey model was then used to forecast industrial electricity consumption in Nigeria for the next 15 years (from 2015 to 2029). According to the forecast result by the year 2029 the industrial consumption of Nigeria will stand at 539.65 MW/h as against 468.18 MW/h in 2015.

Evaluation of Moving Average Model and Autoregressive Moving Average Model (ARMA) for Prediction of Industrial Electricity Consumption in Nigeria

In this paper, evaluation of moving average model and autoregressive moving average model (ARMA) for prediction of industrial electricity consumption in Nigeria is presented. Industrial electricity consumption data obtained from Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) Statistical Bulletin for the year 1979-2014 is used to determine the model parameters and prediction performance in terms of Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) and Coefficient of determination r2 values. The results show that the Autoregressive Moving Average (ARMA) model with coefficient of determination value of 66.0% and RMSE value of 68.628 gives better prediction performance than the Moving Average with coefficient of determination value of 42.6% and value of 84.749. However, coefficient of determination value of 66% is not particularly adequate for acceptable prediction accuracy. In that case, for better prediction accuracy for the industrial electricity consumption in Nigeria, other models may need to be examined apart from the two models considered in this paper.

Modelling and Forecasting of Residential Electricity Consumption in Nigeria Using Multiple and Quadratic Regression Models

In this paper statistical analysis of the residential electricity demand in Nigeria is presented Particularly, multiple regression model with one period lagged and quadratic regression model without interactions were used to estimate residential electricity consumption and to forecast long- term residential demand for electricity based on annual data over the period 2006–2014. For the regression models’ explanatory variable, population which is a socio economic variable is used along with temperature which is a climatic variable are used. The results showed that the quadratic regression model without interactions was more accurate due to the fact that it has the highest coefficient of determinant of 93.87 and the least value of Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) of 52.77as compared to the multiple regression model with one period lagged of the dependent variable with coefficient of determinant of 93.50 and RMSE of 53.16. The quadratic regression model was then selected and used to forecast the residential electricity demand in Nigeria for the years 2015 to 2029.

Nigeria electricity forecast and vision 20: 2020: Evidence from ARIMA model

ABSTRACTThis study employs autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model to forecast electricity consumption in Nigeria, as a way to investigate the condition under which the country could achieve the target of twentieth top-ranked economy in 2020. The study finds that given the current trend, Nigeria will only attain the 2011 level of electricity consumption in Italy (the current twentieth top economy) in the year 2671. However, with a consistent annual increase of 10% or 20%, taking 2012 as base year, it will be achieved in 2050 or 2032, respectively. But, if the consumption level is to be achieved in 2020, the annual increase of 57% will be required.

Determinants of the dynamics of electricity consumption in Nigeria

AbstractThe persistent electricity supply problems in Nigeria are attributable to the inability of energy planners to accurately forecast the effect of the various socioeconomic and physical factors that influence the electricity consumption across the country. The major problem with the existing forecasts of electricity consumption is often assumed to be associated with poor identification of these socioeconomic and physical factors upon which they are based. The goal of this study is to empirically determine the various factors that affect the electricity consumption rate in Nigeria. The study covers an annual time series data from 1985 to 2005. Data for the study were collected through secondary sources. Multiple linear regression was used to test the research hypothesis. The result suggests that electricity consumption was significantly related to 6 of the 12 socioeconomic and physical factors of this consumption rate studied at 0.01 level (R2 = 0.992). These are degree of urbanisation, population density, number of manufacturing industry, number of households with electricity, employment rate and distance to nearest power generating station. These six variables are significantly in determining the electricity consumption in Nigeria. Policies based on the outcome of this study will produce positive and sound policy actions.

Electricity consumption in Nigeria: a spatial analysis

Electricity consumption in Nigeria: a spatial analysis