Modelling and Forecasting of Residential Electricity Consumption in Nigeria Using Multiple and Quadratic Regression Models

Isaac Amazuilo Ezenugu

doi:10.11648/j.ajsea.20170603.17

Abstract

In this paper statistical analysis of the residential electricity demand in Nigeria is presented Particularly, multiple regression model with one period lagged and quadratic regression model without interactions were used to estimate residential electricity consumption and to forecast long- term residential demand for electricity based on annual data over the period 2006–2014. For the regression models’ explanatory variable, population which is a socio economic variable is used along with temperature which is a climatic variable are used. The results showed that the quadratic regression model without interactions was more accurate due to the fact that it has the highest coefficient of determinant of 93.87 and the least value of Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) of 52.77as compared to the multiple regression model with one period lagged of the dependent variable with coefficient of determinant of 93.50 and RMSE of 53.16. The quadratic regression model was then selected and used to forecast the residential electricity demand in Nigeria for the years 2015 to 2029.

Highlights

Electricity is one of the most important commodities for the development of any nation [1-3]
Econometric Views (EViews) statistical package is used to perform the regression from which the values of the intercept α0 and the regression coefficients α1, α2 and α3 are obtained for the multiple regression model
Econometric Views (EViews) statistical package is used to perform the regression from which the values of the intercept α0 and the regression coefficients α1, α2 α3 and α4 are obtained for the quadratic regression model with interaction

Summary

Introduction

Electricity is one of the most important commodities for the development of any nation [1-3]. Electricity shortage still remains one of the main challenges facing the Nigeria nation [4-8]. This problem has been attributed to the inability of the electricity supply to meet the consumer demand [9-11]. The phenomenal increase in the population, economic activities as well as lack of maintenance of the existing power stations has contributed to this problem [12-17]. With privatization at the power generation sector, more independent power generation stations are being installed. Available studies have focused on the integrated power demand for Nigeria. Such model is not suitable for planning in many cases since there are different tariff for different power consumer sector

Methods

Findings

Discussion

Conclusion