Election Manifestos Research Articles

Semantic temporality analysis: A computational approach to time in English and German texts

Temporality is an important aspect of political discourse. Politicians and policymakers attempt to construct the past and the future to gain power, legitimize their policies, claim success for themselves and blame others. To make computational analysis of temporality more accessible, we develop a new methodology using a semisupervised machine-learning algorithm called Latent Semantic Scaling. Only with a set of common verbs in the past perfect and future tense as seed words, the algorithm estimates the temporality of all other words. We demonstrate that it can identify temporal orientation of English and German sentences from election manifestos around 60–70% accurately, which is comparable to the results from a recent study based on supervised machine-learning algorithms. We also apply it to Twitter posts by German political parties to reveal temporal orientation of policy issues.

Sticking to the core or going beyond? The Austrian freedom party’s educational approach in a longitudinal perspective

ABSTRACT Although populist radical right parties (PRRPs) are actively studied in recent years, few research has addressed their approach to education policy. Previously not considered one of their signature issues, this paper argues that education has become important for PRRPs too. In a case study of the Austrian Freedom Party (FPÖ), one of the most longstanding and successful PRRPs in Western Europe, we explore key pillars of the FPÖ's educational positions and their development over time. Drawing on qualitative content analysis of party programs, election manifestos and plenary debates from 1990 to 2020, our analysis shows that the policy area of education has indeed become an ideological battleground for the FPÖ. Its educational positions are largely grounded in the ideological core of PRRPs and comprise a fundamental critique of mainstream parties’ dominance in educational institutions (anti-mainstream); a nativist division on all levels of education (nativism); the advocacy of merit-based educational institutions coupled with authoritarian instruments of schooling (merit); and a plea for more liberalisation and competition in schools (liberalisation). Over time, positions become more nuanced, albeit only within the already established traits. These findings corroborate theoretical arguments for the influence of growing party age and government experience on PRRPs’ positions.

From opposition to government: how populist parties change their political communication in Northern Ireland

ABSTRACT Political communication is central to the electoral ascension of populist parties across the world. Several studies investigate how communication is used by populists to gain power, but we know very little about how the communication varies when moving between opposition and government office. The few studies on the topic focus exclusively on right-wing populist parties and neglect left-wing populism. This article addresses this gap in the literature and analyses the political communication of left- and right-wing populist parties by comparing their periods in opposition and in government. It focuses on the Northern Ireland case and compares Sinn Féin and the DUP and uses deductive thematic analysis for each election manifesto for the Northern Ireland Assembly between 1998 and 2022. The analysis includes four themes: people-centrism, anti-elite bad manners, crisis talk and volonté générale solutions. Contrary to theoretical expectations, we find that the right-wing populist DUP has changed more substantively its political communication than the left-wing Sinn Féin when moving from opposition to government.

“Language” as Part of Education Policies: Pre-analysis of the 2023 Political Communication Text in Türkiye

The present research notes aim to discuss how political communication text shapes education policies in Türkiye: How does political communication make education policy a political product based on ideology? What is the education policy topic that bears ideological traces? What is the part of language in the context of education policies? The election manifesto related to the Turkish General Election that is scheduled to take place on May 14, 2023, is pre-analyzed as the recent political communication text in Türkiye.

Ideological drivers of participatory democracy in Europe: disentangling the different approaches of populism and post-materialist politics

Empirical literature regarding which actors support the most participatory democracy is surprisingly scarce. Discussing the core ideological features of populist and post-materialist-centred parties, we expect that these parties emphasise participatory democracy more than their competitors. Additionally, populist parties should embody a monist demand for greater participatory democracy, while post-materialist-centred (PMC) parties should advocate a pluralist understanding of it. Drawing on party electoral manifestos, we verify these assumptions in several national elections across Europe. Our findings show mixed support for the theoretical expectations. Both post-materialist and populist parties support participatory democracy more than other parties, and their principles diverge. More precisely, our data confirm that PMC parties advocate a pluralist understanding of participatory democracy. Yet populist parties show a fuzzier picture. While populist radical right parties exhibit a monist profile, radical left populist parties are much more in line with post-materialist arguments.

Main Features of the Climate Change Agenda of the Party of European Socialists

This article is devoted to the climate change agenda of the Party of European Socialists. In order to identify its current main features, the author characterizes the development of the climate discourse of the party under the influence of socialist, workers and social-democratic ideological foundations, as well as the political situation in the European Union at various historical stages. Through comparative analysis and discourse analysis, the general evolution and main principles of the Party of European Socialists and its political group, the Progressive Alliance of Socialists and Democrats, as well as the actual development and current priorities of the climate agenda are investigated. Comparative analysis and discourse analysis are carried out through the prism of election manifestos and the top officials’ rhetoric. The relevance of the study lies in the primacy of climate change for the European Union and its citizens, as well as the substantial modernization of supranational legislation under the leadership of Frans Timmermans, a member of the Party of European Socialists and Executive Vice-President of the European Commission for the European “Green Deal”.

European Politics Behind Closed Doors: The Origins of Euroscepticism in Slovenia

Euroscepticism is a common political problem in many EU member states or potential candidates. There is a general belief that the EU is a giant bureaucratic structure and as such distant, colossal and suspicious, which creates a growing distance between the EU and its citizens. Such ambivalent sentiment towards the EU could be noticed also in Slovenia after it gained independence from Yugoslavia and started the process of joining the EU. The general public opinion about the EU was rather low – people were generally sympathetic about the EU but never completely enthusiastic about it. What attributed to such attitude was also the fact that politicians adopted several regulations without properly informing the public therefore leaving people uninformed about potentially important issues. In this paper, we argue that the threat to representative democracy is not so much in politicians not keeping their promises but rather in politicians not telling their constituents what they are working on and adopting more regulations than communicated with public. Our analysis of election manifestos, public opinion and press releases uncovers two fundamental problems of the Slovenian government between 2000 and 2004. The first one is an almost routine adoption of EU regulations without serious public debates and the second government’s failure to communicate relevant matters with public in a timely manner, problematize them and bring them closer to people. Although the analysis focuses on events that happen around 20 years ago, we believe that our findings are highly relevant also for the state of Slovenian politics today.

Mainstream parties and global warming: What determines parties’ engagement in climate protection?

AbstractGlobal warming is not only a serious threat for humanity but increasingly structures political competition in Western Europe. The rise of green (niche) parties and public awareness of the issue pressure mainstream parties to emphasise climate protection. Yet, while scholars reflect on the factors influencing mainstream parties’ environmental agendas, we know little about what triggers climate standpoints and about the role public opinion plays in this process. This study measures the salience of climate protection in 292 election manifestos of mainstream parties in 10 Western European countries since the 1990s and estimates the impact of different factors on their climate agenda using OLS regressions. The findings suggest that green parties are not the driving factor, and that it is the public salience of environmental issues and pressure from the Fridays for Future movement influencing mainstream parties’ agendas. Accordingly, mainstream parties seem to be responsive to public opinion pressure adopting climate protection stances. The study further proposes a different measure of niche party success than that used in previous studies.

Philo-Semitic Civilisationism or Anti-Semitic Nationalism? The Ambivalent Stance of the Alternative for Germany Towards Judaism, Jews, and Israel

ABSTRACT This article follows up on assumptions of Rogers Brubaker and Benjamin Moffitt, according to whom, some Western and Northern European right-wing populist parties use ‘civilisationist’ and liberal-illiberal narratives that are, for instance, characterised by a ‘philo-Semitic stance’. The paper analyses to what extent the German right-wing populist party Alternative for Germany (AfD) fits into this concept, considering the party’s ambivalent attitude towards Judaism, Jews, and Israel. Using qualitative content analysis, the study is based on an examination of AfD electoral manifestos and parliamentary documents from the federal level as well as from states such as Berlin, Baden-Württemberg, and Thuringia between 2014 and 2019. Our results reveal differences that range from open anti-Semitic statements to self-definitions as a ‘pro-Jewish’ party. We argue that different positions can be explained by regionally divergent discursive opportunity structures as well as personnel heterogeneity across the party sections under study. Furthermore, we reason that a combination of anti-Semitic and pro-Jewish/Israeli statements fits into the AfD’s strategy of addressing both voters from the radical right with anti-Semitic prejudices and more moderate, conservative voters that reject open hostility towards Jews and Israel. We conclude that the AfD fulfils Brubaker’s and Moffitt’s concepts only to a rather limited extent.

Jair Bolsonaro and the defining attributes of the populist radical right in Brazil

Abstract The presidential candidacy of Jair Bolsonaro in Brazil in 2018 was the Populist Radical Right’s (PRR) first one to be electorally successful in Latin America. Although it is possible to assert that Bolsonaro belongs to the PRR given his political career, few studies have focused on the supply-side and Bolsonaro’s ideas and discourses. This article analyzes the relevance of the three defining attributes of the PRR – nativism, authoritarianism, and populism – in Bolsonaro’s ideological and programmatic platform. Based on an analysis of the 2018 electoral manifesto, campaign and government speeches, and social network posts, three arguments will be made: (i) authoritarianism is the primary defining attribute of Bolsonaro; (ii) populism only exists in the country associated with a solid negative political identity, an anti-Workers’ Party sentiment known in Brazil as antipetismo; and (iii) neoliberalism must be considered a fourth ideological element of the Brazilian PRR.

The Effects of Granting the Right of External Voting to the Diaspora Policies of AKP and CHP

By granting the Turkish diaspora the right to vote in general elections in 2014, Turkish political parties’ diaspora policies have gained crucial importance, especially considering that votes from abroad constitute five percent of the total votes. In this study, I will try to answer the question of how granting of the right to vote to citizens abroad affected the main Turkish political parties’ (Adalet ve Kalkınma Partisi, Justice and Development Party– AKP and Cumhuriyet Halk Partisi, Republican People’s Party - CHP) diaspora policies. First of all, I start by introducing the Turkish diaspora. Then, I review the history of the Turkish diaspora’s right to vote from abroad. Next, I analyze the parties’ election manifestos published before the general elections in 2011, 2015, and 2018. The reason for selecting these specific elections is to reveal the alteration of these two main parties’ diaspora policies since the 2011 elections were the last election before the granting to vote externally and 2015 and 2018 were the first two general elections afterward. Within the scope of this literature review and document analysis, the issue is analyzed using two perspectives within the framework of the concepts of external voting, election districts, foreign policy, diaspora institutions, culture and integration, political participation, and education. This study establishes that the provision of external voting rights had a substantial influence on the policies of Turkish political parties towards the diaspora, as evidenced by the significant increase in the number of election manifesto articles and the remarkably diverse promises.

Brexit as a critical juncture in the politics of UK devolution: a comparative analysis of the effects of Brexit on parties’ territorial strategies

ABSTRACT In this paper, we theorize the 2016 Brexit referendum as a critical juncture in UK politics and analyse its effects on devolution using the concept of regional authority. We argue that Brexit raised the option of re-balancing the self-rule and shared rule dimensions of regional authority present in UK devolution. We generate hypotheses regarding parties’ territorial strategies and test them against a content analysis of 2015 and 2017 UK general election manifestos. We demonstrate that proposals dealing with shared rule grew between 2015 and 2017, within the context of consistency in parties’ overall territorial positioning. The governing Conservatives also offered more proposals on shared rule but not ones that increased devolved influence. Overall, they moved from favouring an increase in regional authority in 2015 to the cusp of maintaining existing regional authority and somewhat reducing it in 2017. This helps to explain whypost-Brexit UK government policy in practice maintained a primary focus on self-rule within a general approach of limiting the further growth of regional authority.

THE 2019 ELECTIONS IN THE CONTEXT OF EVOLUTION OF THE WOMEN's AGENDA IN BRITISH POLITICAL PARTIES

The article attempts to determine the role of the women's agenda in the activities of political parties and the place of women in the parliamentary factions of the leading parties of Great Britain. Based on the analysis of the policies of Labour, Conservatives and Liberal Democrats to the problem of women's promotion in politics, the role of gender quotas as a tool for attracting the female electorate is analyzed. The 2019 General Elections and the tasks political parties were faced with in terms of women's agenda are described in the broad historical context of the evolution of women's politics of the Labour, Conservative and Liberal Democratic parties in the late 20th – early 21st centuries. The author analyzes the election manifestos of the parties in the 2019 elections and concludes about the differences in the approaches to solving women's problems by the right and left parties. In addition, the author reveals the relationship between the women's agenda in the manifestos, the participation of women in the parliamentary factions of parties and women's voting in General Elections.

Evaluation of Election Manifestos in Terms of Social Policy: Comparison of Center-Local

Çalışmada seçim bildirgeleri yerel sosyal politika açısından değerlendirilmiştir. 31 Mart 2019 tarihinde gerçekleştirilen yerel seçimlerde CHP Genel Merkezi ile CHP İstanbul Büyükşehir Belediye Başkan Adayının seçim bildirgelerinin sosyal politika açısından analiz edilmesi araştırmanın amacını oluşturmaktadır. Araştırmada MAXQDA 20 programı kullanılarak betimsel içerik analizi yapılmıştır. Sosyal politika tedbirleri toplumsal yapıdaki sosyal sorunlara göre değişiklik gösterebilmektedir. Bu açıdan yerel seçim bildirgesinin aynı partinin genel merkezi tarafından açıklanan seçim bildirgesi ile benzerlik durumu değerlendirilmiştir. Engelliler, kadınlar, yaşlılar ve işsizler, çevre, ulaşım ve trafik açısından merkez-yerel seçim bildirgelerinde benzerlik olduğu görülmektedir. Bununla birlikte göçmenler, yoksulluk ve kentsel dönüşüm ile ilgili konularda seçim bildirgelerinde farklılık olduğu ifade edilebilir.

We don’t need no education? Education policies of Western European populist radical right parties

Populist radical right parties (PRRPs) have become more mainstream, increasing their relevance in European politics. While a lot is already known about them, there are still gaps in our knowledge. This article addresses one such gap by studying Western European PRRPs’ positions on education policy. It focuses on the salience of education in election manifestos, substantive positions that parties hold, and in how far these positions reflect their core ideology. Constructing a novel framework based on core ideologies and three dimensions of education policies, including an often-neglected content dimension, the article presents results from a qualitative content analysis of 15 manifestos. The results show that education policy is relevant for PRRPs, albeit to varying degrees, and that their policies are informed by their core ideologies. The findings have important implications for understanding education policy dynamics in liberal democracies as PRRPs fundamentally challenge normative foundations of Western European education systems.

When Correlation Is Not Enough: Validating Populism Scores from Supervised Machine-Learning Models

AbstractDespite the ongoing success of populist parties in many parts of the world, we lack comprehensive information about parties’ level of populism over time. A recent contribution to Political Analysis by Di Cocco and Monechi (DCM) suggests that this research gap can be closed by predicting parties’ populism scores from their election manifestos using supervised machine learning. In this paper, we provide a detailed discussion of the suggested approach. Building on recent debates about the validation of machine-learning models, we argue that the validity checks provided in DCM’s paper are insufficient. We conduct a series of additional validity checks and empirically demonstrate that the approach is not suitable for deriving populism scores from texts. We conclude that measuring populism over time and between countries remains an immense challenge for empirical research. More generally, our paper illustrates the importance of more comprehensive validations of supervised machine-learning models.

Labour early years policy

The Labour Party has recently made a series of announcements about its plans for the early years sector, which will be considered for inclusion in its next General Election manifesto. Sue Cowley looks at recent Labour policy announcements, including a report from the Council of Skills’ Advisors, which made recommendations about skills and learning under a future Labour government.

МАСШТАБНЫЙ ТРАНЗИТ ВЛАСТИ В КАМБОДЖЕ КАК РЕЗУЛЬТАТ ПАРЛАМЕНТСКИХ ВЫБОРОВ 2023 Г.

This article analyses the results of the July 2023 parliamentary election in Cambodia, election manifestos, and the structure of political forces. The author shows that a confident electoral victory of the Cambodian People’s Party accelerated the process of power change and the retreat of previously dominant politicians headed by Hun Sen. Key positions are now occupied by the younger generation led by Hun Manet. The article concludes that a clan-based, familial mechanism of power transition has been formed in Cambodia.

ОСОБЛИВОСТІ РОЗВИТКУ ОПОЗИЦІЙНИХ ПАРТІЙ В ЯПОНСЬКІЙ ПАРТІЙНІЙ СИСТЕМІ НА СУЧАСНОМУ ЕТАПІ

The article analyzes the peculiarities of the development of opposition parties in the context of transformation processes in the party system of Japan at the present stage. The author characterizes the peculiarities of the formation of the Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) after the reform of the electoral law and the establishment of a mixed electoral system in Japan in 1994. The author identifies the miscalculations of the DPJ's activities during the period of its stay in power, in particular, the causes and peculiarities of the development of centrifugal tendencies in the Democratic Party since 2017. The key factors of the success of the right-wing populist "Japan Reform Party" in the 2012 House of Representatives elections are outlined. It is concluded that one of the main reasons for the divergence in the political programs of the leading parties is the attitude to the pacifist Article 9 of the Constitution. Based on the analysis of the results of the elections to the lower house of parliament in 2017 and 2021, and to the upper house of parliament in 2019 and 2022, the election manifestos of the main political forces are characterized. Attention is focused on the phenomenon of the electoral coalition, which was formed by the left-wing opposition forces. The author concludes that the modern Japanese opposition is characterized by the absence of any basis for cooperation between the right and left poles of the opposition forces. The author outlines, on the one hand, the prospects for the potential formation of a temporary coalition between the ruling bloc and the right-wing opposition center to pass certain bills, including constitutional amendments, and, on the other hand, the impossibility of consolidating the left-wing center of the opposition in the near future. Key words: party system, party, elections, opposition party, right-wing populism.

Frames and political choice in Scottish election campaigns

The paper presents interdisciplinary research using the framework of cognitive linguistics based metaphor theory and nationalism studies of political science. Frames of movement are placed under scrutiny during the discourse analysis of the 2016 and 2021 election manifestos of the Scottish National Party and social media posts. In relation to metaphors of movement, images describing the future of an independent Scotland are also detected. The authors attempt to analyse and interpret findings both from the perspective of cognitive linguistics and ethno-symbolism. Apart from the texts of the manifestos, the timeframe of the research involved social media posts two months preceding and two months following the elections in both cases. Methodology was issue-driven and computer assisted but supervised: key words linked to movement were extracted from the manifestos and clustered. Their occurrence and frequency in the social media posts was checked. In the qualitative analysis phase, messages of the manifestos and of the posts were contrasted in order to answer our research question what kind of persuasive political discourse was used when options for the citizens were outlined.