Electoral Environment Research Articles

The Brexit Cleavages in the 2017 and 2019 General Elections

The EU referendum of 23 June 2016 revealed new cleavages among British voters, based on age, values and geography rather than social class or centre/periphery. This paper examines how the main parties have responded to the challenge in the following general elections in 2017 and 2019, and whether a realignment has taken place along the Brexit faultlines. It argues that both Labour and the Conservatives managed to partially adjust to the challenge and made some electoral gains by reconfiguring their political strategy to adapt to the new electoral environment. But the Conservative party proved better able at attracting the pro-Brexit voters than Labour was with the - divided - Remain voters. It remains to be seen whether these developments will be short-lived or will endure.

The Best at the Top? Candidate Ranking Strategies Under Closed List Proportional Representation

Under closed-list proportional representation, a party's electoral list determines the order in which legislative seats are allocated to candidates. When candidates differ in their ability, parties face a trade-off between competence and incentives. Ranking candidates in decreasing order of competence ensures that elected politicians are most competent. Yet, party lists create incentives for candidates that may push parties not to rank candidates in decreasing competence order. We examine this trade-off in a game-theoretical model in which parties rank their candidate on a list, candidates choose their campaign effort, and the election is a team contest for multiple prizes. We show that the trade-off between competence and incentives depends on candidates’' objective and the electoral environment. In particular, parties rank candidates in decreasing order of competence if candidates value enough post-electoral high offices or media coverage focuses on candidates at the top of the list.

Особенности партийной системы Словакии в контексте парламентских электоральных циклов 2016–2020 гг.

The article considers the structural changes in the party system of the Slovak Republic, taking place in 2016– 2020 due to the strengthening of parties of anti-systemic populist orientation. The author researches the causes and factors of evolution of the party landscape in the EU countries towards institutionalisation of antisystem policy. The development of the Slovak party system reflects the key trends in the political development of the EU countries with the weakening position of the systemic party establishment and the strengthening role of populist parties. The complexity of the phenomenon of antisystemicism in modern conditions is emphasized, since mainstream parties, seeking electoral support, use the rhetoric of populist parties, and populist parties, haveing obtained parliamentary mandates, weaken their radicalism and start working in the mainstream format. As a result of the 2016 parliamentary elections, the breakdown of the “structural nucleus” of Slovakia’s party system took place, which for two decades had been the basis of its stability and predictability of development. The weakening influence of “traditional” (Christian-Democratic, Conservative, Social-Democratic) parties freed up electoral environment for “new” populist, anti-systemic, right-wing extremist forces. Electoral statistics demonstrates that the influence of mainstream parties weakens at the regional and local levels of Slovak politics. The results of the 2020 parliamentary elections demonstrate that the party system of Slovakia in the continuum between mainstream and populism comes even closer to the populist format. The electoral triumph of populists and their convergence with programmatic parties within the parliamentary-governmental coalition raises new challenges for Slovakia’s political system. Among the main reasons for the rise of populism in Slovakia are the following: disappointment of citizens with the activities of the ruling elites; mediation and personalisation of policy; denationalisation of politics and increasing importance of global governance structures at European and world levels; increasing populism in Slovakian election campaigns; low level of institutionalisation of political parties and the party system as a whole. Attention is drawn to the destructive tendencies in the development of the modern party system of Slovakia. The collapse of the “structural core” of the Slovak party system and the further pluralisation of parliamentary representation of parties do not contribute to the stability and predictability of parliamentary-governmental activity. Increased electoral influence and parliamentary representation of political subjects of populist, anti-systemic and right-wing extremist orientation cause political risks for the stable democratic development of the Slovak Republic.

Análise dos liberalismos clássico e socialista a partir de suas origens, fins e medos dos seus entusiastas

A pesquisa trata da distinção entre os dois principais modelos de liberalismo, o Clássico e o Socialista. Através de uma análise de suas origens, fins e medos de seus defensores poderemos diferenciar de maneira concreta e precisa um do outro. O método é o hipotético-dedutivo e fazemos uso de análise bibliográfica para desenvolver os raciocínios e construir os contextos históricos. Visamos dar precisão ao termo liberalismo de modo a esclarecer o seu uso em debates eleitorais e como elemento de simbologia partidária, muito comum no Brasil. Em um ambiente eleitoral tão desinformativo, um artigo que busque dar solidez a baluartes políticos se justifica em si mesmo. Concluímos distinguindo as duas doutrinas com base na liberdade negativa e positiva de suas respectivas teorias de Estado.

Formación cívica, estructura fundamental de la participación ciudadana

México ha transitado por diferentes estrategias educativas, en las cuales la importancia de la formación cívica se ha reacomodado en la jerarquía. La cultura cívica forma parte de la formación ciudadana, se adquiere en el ámbito educativo; y se practica en el ámbito social. Tema importante de esa educación cívica es la democracia, concebida esta como una forma de gobierno en la que el poder político se ejerce por los ciudadanos y no solo por el grupo que ostenta el poder en un tiempo y espacio determinado. En México el abstencionismo se presenta en el entorno electoral, como respuesta de ciudadanos a quienes no les interesa el quehacer de los políticos y del gobierno. Tampoco participan de forma activa en la solución de problemas que aquejan a su comunidad. Este suceso identifica la ausencia de formación cívica en los jóvenes mexicanos, y resalta la importancia de incluir en los procesos educativos de todos los niveles de educación pública a la educación cívica. Las instituciones de educación superior tienen una misión educadora; son formadoras de ciudadanía, y sobre todo de personas íntegras que generen desarrollo en sus comunidades, fomenten la cohesión social, promuevan la formación de la identidad nacional y actúen con conciencia en la resolución de problemas contemporáneos.

Charismatic Leaders in a New Perspective: Reality in Estonia and Italy

The purpose of this explorative study is to put the existing theories on charismatic political leadership in a current post-web media context. It also seeks to better understand why “charismatic politicians” seem to have success in present-day cyber politics. The paper considers political charisma in a Weberian perspective and aims to explain what elements it includes in a current electoral environment characterized by a fast-changing media landscape. The paper places the existing theoretical models in the context of two European societies, by comparing Estonia and Italy as case studies. Estonia, a small ex-Soviet country has emerged in recent years as an advanced e-society with highly “internetisized” media. At the same time, Italy became known by the phenomenon of the “Berlusconization” of the media, a popular subject of study in political communication. The analysis considers existing research, mostly based on the work of Max Weber, and aims to test the index of charisma, developed by Pappas (2011), in the two observed countries. The paper concludes with a discussion on if and how charismatic political leaders fit a deliberative democracy. Finally, attention is drawn to the need for further systematic comparative research to better understand the phenomenon of charismatic leadership in the post-web media environment.

Election, International Election Monitoring Groups and Nigeria’s Fourth Republic

A representative democracy can be achieved through a free and fair electoral environment. It is at the instance of ensuring free and fair election that observation has emerged as a fundamental principle in restoring people’s confidence, trust and appraising electoral integrity for democratic development. The participation and involvement of international election observers in electoral matters aim to ensure that elections are conducted in accordance with conventional democratic ethical standards across the globe. Premised on this background, this paper seeks to examine the role of international election observers in major elections conducted in Nigeria’s fourth republic. Six international election observation bodies were sampled: National Democratic Institute (NDI), The Commonwealth Secretariat (CS), European Commission (EC), International Republican Institute (IRI), Human Right Watch (HRW) and Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS). The study unravels the essential roles of international election observers in 1999, 2003, 2007 and 2011 elections in Nigeria. The paper therefore avers that international election observers have performed more than expectation in correcting previous electoral malfeasances through their dynamic reports and recommendations. Their monumental roles discerned the 2011 general election from the preceding 1999, 2003 and 2007 elections which were marred by miscellaneous electoral flaws in Nigeria. Thus, the paper recommends ultimate cooperation of Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), civil society, security agency and electorate with International Electoral Observers for the realization of sustainable democracy in Nigeria.

Which women win? Partisan changes in victory patterns in US House Elections

ABSTRACT A long line of research has shown that “when women run, they win,” but we know little about which women win. Based on a new dataset of US House candidates, this article examines partisan victory patterns among female candidates from 1980 to 2012. The relationship between party and election outcomes changes over time, yet Republican women face a much more difficult electoral environment than Democratic women. In addition, the electoral situation of Republican women has worsened in recent years, whereas that of Democratic women has improved. Democratic women candidates now dramatically outnumber Republican women candidates, and prospects for gender parity are further hindered by the dearth of Republican women who run. The partisan gap in women’s representation is likely to persist in light of the multiple ways in which Republican women are disadvantaged compared to Democratic women.

Author's response

Moving beyond the analytical characteristics of apportionment methods or election systems, this article focuses on their outcomes in practice. We illustrate how apportionment and partisan biases working with a high threshold created an electoral environment conducive to the establishment of a predominant party system. We use the historical example of the Turkish experience. We trace the historical development of disproportionality for the entire multi-party elections for the 1950–2015 period. Focusing on the five most recent elections of this period since 2002, we demonstrate how the biases introduced by the apportionment method in use and the 10% threshold have advantaged the leading Justice and Development Party (Adalet ve Kalkınma Partisi, AKP). Our study suggests that a partisan bias favoring AKP still continues to exist at a lower level even after correcting the apportionment and the threshold biases. We underline how these biases form the foundation for a conservative over-representation and emphasize the path-dependent dynamics that keep challengers to the AKP away from the electoral scene, effectively helping to continue its hegemonic position in the system.

From “bush bureaucracies” to electoral competition: what explains the political success of rebel parties after civil wars?

ABSTRACTIn this paper, we examine the factors that explain the political success of former rebel parties in electoral competition after the end of civil wars. We develop a theoretical framework derived from the existing literature on the “new” political parties. This literature emphasizes three dimensions that have been cited as affecting party success – (1) the characteristics of the party organization as an “agent”; (2) the “supply” of political support; (3) the “structure of opportunities” or openings provided to political parties by the political environment. In particular, we examine the hypothesis that rebel groups that have developed organized wartime bureaucracies are more likely to succeed politically in the post-war electoral environment. Using a data set that includes 27 countries that experienced a civil war, with a total of 42 rebel groups over the period 1996–2013, we examine whether relatively more bureaucratized groups are more electorally successful than less bureaucratized groups. This study sheds light on the characteristics of rebel groups that are more likely to politically succeed following conflict.

Partisan and apportionment bias in creating a predominant party system

Moving beyond the analytical characteristics of apportionment methods or election systems, this article focuses on their outcomes in practice. We illustrate how apportionment and partisan biases working with a high threshold created an electoral environment conducive to the establishment of a predominant party system. We use the historical example of the Turkish experience. We trace the historical development of disproportionality for the entire multi-party elections for the 1950–2015 period. Focusing on the five most recent elections of this period since 2002, we demonstrate how the biases introduced by the apportionment method in use and the 10% threshold have advantaged the leading Justice and Development Party (Adalet ve Kalkınma Partisi, AKP). Our study suggests that a partisan bias favoring AKP still continues to exist at a lower level even after correcting the apportionment and the threshold biases. We underline how these biases form the foundation for a conservative over-representation and emphasize the path-dependent dynamics that keep challengers to the AKP away from the electoral scene, effectively helping to continue its hegemonic position in the system.

Do immigrant-origin candidates attract immigrant-origin voters in party-centred electoral systems? Evidence from Germany

A burgeoning literature on minority representation asks whether immigrant-origin voters are more likely to vote for candidates of immigrant-origin (CIOs) than for native candidates, thus giving parties incentives to nominate CIOs. At present, however, evidence of such a link comes exclusively from candidate-centred electoral systems. The present study intends to narrow this gap by examining the influence of CIOs on the voting behaviour of immigrant-origin citizens in Germany, a more party-centred electoral environment. An empirical analysis of opinion survey and candidate data from the 2013 Bundestag election suggests that the electoral link between voters and CIOs is considerable. This paper is thus the first one to show that CIOs are a significant factor for the electoral mobilisation of immigrant-origin citizens in a party-centred electoral system.

Party organization and gender in European elections

Political parties often monopolize the flow of politicians into elected office making it important to understand when, and under what conditions, parties are more or less likely to promote gender equality in representation. This article argues that party choices to nominate women in elections are conditional on the centralization of candidate selection within the party. Gender quotas and characteristics of the electoral environment have differential effects on candidate lists across party types. Leveraging data at the party level, I test when it is electorally feasible and organizationally possible for parties to nominate women for office. I find that candidate selection procedures condition the effects of party strategy and characteristics of the electoral environment on the percentage of women on electoral lists. The results provide insight into how strategic party choices, attenuated by electoral considerations and organization, impact the diversity of representation in political institutions.

States Testing the Legal Limits: The Effect of Electoral Competition on the Constitutionality of State Statutes

AbstractWhen the U.S. Supreme Court decides to exercise judicial review on a law passed by a democratically elected institution, it can have a profound and critical impact on public policy. Furthermore, recent research shows that the Court more frequently declares state statutes unconstitutional than federal statutes. However, only a limited number of studies have extensively explored this political phenomenon. One aspect of a state that has not been considered in connection with the Supreme Court's use of judicial review over state legislation is the electoral environment in which the laws are produced. We argue that because electoral competition affects the legislative output from a state, it could also influence the likelihood that a state has a statute invalidated by the U.S. Supreme Court. When examining all states between 1971 and 2010, we find evidence in support of our theoretical expectation. Specifically, we find that an increase in electoral competition corresponds to an increased likelihood that a state has a statute invalidated by the Supreme Court. This finding contributes to our understanding of the Supreme Court's use of judicial review, and it also suggests that electoral pressure can incentivize states to craft unconstitutional public policy.

A global analysis of how losing an election affects voter satisfaction with democracy

In this article, we argue that a deeper understanding of citizen satisfaction with democratic elections requires a global perspective. Regional research found that a gap in satisfaction with democracy emerges after an election, between those who supported winning parties and those that did not, and also, crucially, that this gap can be reduced under proportional electoral institutions. In this article we argue instead that these theories of the winner–loser gap actually apply to only a narrow set of countries. We use a comprehensive global dataset to show that the predictions of this theory about the effects of proportional institutions are accurate for Western Europe, but not outside it. Beyond a small cluster of established democracies in Western Europe, the electoral environment is characterized by more fundamental uncertainty. This uncertainty alters the incentives created by proportional institutions. We conclude that the winner–loser gap and ‘losers’ consent’ are concepts that vary systematically around the world. We discuss the implications of this for democratic stability.

Dynamic estimation of ideal points for the US Congress

Theories of candidate positioning suggest that candidates will respond dynamically to their electoral environment. Because of the difficulty of obtaining “bridge votes”, most existing approaches for estimating the ideal points of members of Congress generate static ideal points or ideal points that move linearly over time. We propose an approach for dynamic ideal point estimation using Project Vote Smart’s National Political Awareness Test to construct bridge votes. We use our dynamic estimates to measure aggregate change, to measure individual-level change, and to study the institutional and structural factors that explain the changing positions of House candidates and members of Congress. We demonstrate that while the Republican Party has been selecting increasingly extreme candidates, Democratic incumbents have become more extreme while in office. We also find that the congruence between elected members of Congress and their constituents is mostly explained by the selection as opposed to the responsiveness of the candidate. Nonetheless, we find evidence of dynamic responsiveness of incumbents in specific circumstances. We find that competitiveness, midterm elections, and sharing the president’s party affiliation are associated with greater responsiveness. Conversely, retirement is not associated with a change in responsiveness. We find no evidence of responsiveness of challengers. Finally, we find that close elections draw challengers who are more in line with the district’s ideology.

COATTAILS AND MIXED ELECTORAL SYSTEMS: EVIDENCE FROM TAIWAN'S 2016 ELECTION

AbstractTo what extent do presidential candidates influence voting in mixed member legislative elections? A sizable literature addresses presidential–legislative coattail effects in the American context, with less attention given to this interaction in non-Western democracies. Nor is the role of past voting behavior adequately assessed in the literature. Taiwan's historic 2016 election allows for an analysis of the extent in which the popularity of presidential candidates influences coattail voting in the more complex electoral environment of two-vote mixed legislative systems. Evidence finds that, controlling for partisanship and previous voting behavior, voters who supported a presidential candidate were more likely to also support the party's legislative candidates, although this influence is stronger in regards to Democratic Progressive Party's Tsai Ing-wen.

Black Candidates and Black Turnout: A Study of Viability in Louisiana Mayoral Elections

What effect does a candidate’s race have on coracial voter turnout? Recent studies have found mixed results, largely because it is difficult to separate the effect of candidate race from other factors that drive voter turnout. We argue that viability is a key element in the theory of turnout among coracial voters that has been overlooked in the extant literature. We develop a broad-based concept of candidate viability that is dependent on both the candidate and the electoral environment. To test this hypothesis, we make use of the unique runoff structure of mayoral elections in the state of Louisiana between 1988 and 2011. We argue that runoff elections heighten viability in ways rarely seen in most elections. We find that while there is an effect of candidate race on black turnout in general elections, the effect is much more robust in runoff elections.

Resisting the Opportunity for Change

This article explores congressional campaigning on the web in 2016. What impact did the unique nature of the 2016 election have on those involved with the creation and maintenance of congressional campaign websites? Did it cause them to alter their approach to online campaigning? Using data from a survey of campaign insiders, we find that the factors that influence how congressional campaigns view and use their websites were largely impervious to the unique electoral environment. Results show that, consistent with previous election years, campaigns maintained a fairly uniform view of likely visitors and target audiences, and they tended to see their campaign websites as digital hubs, best used for capturing the campaign’s overall message. We also find that, as in other years, nonincumbents continued to use their websites to campaign more aggressively than incumbents. Overall, the results suggest that congressional campaigning on the web is primarily driven by stable factors that transcend technological advancements and shifts in the political environment.

The Pseudoparadox of Partisan Mapmaking and Congressional Competition

AbstractWhy are fewer congressional elections competitive at the district level when the national electoral environment is at its most competitive? This article explores this “pseudoparadox,” and argues that the answer can be found in partisan redistricting. Through an analysis of 40 years of congressional elections, I find that partisan gerrymanders induce greater competitiveness as national tides increase, largely due to unanticipated consequences of waves adverse to the map-drawing party, particularly in seats held by that party. The phenomenon anecdotally coined by Grofman and Brunell as the “dummymander” is thus actually quite common and has significant effects on rates of congressional competition nationally. In contrast, bipartisan maps are shown to induce lower competition, while nonpartisan maps induce higher competition, under all electoral conditions and competitiveness measures. But the effects of partisan gerrymanders on competition, though strong, can only be seen in interaction with short-term national forces.