Electoral Contests Research Articles

Greece: The Return of the Right

AbstractNew Democracy (ND), the centre‐right party founded by Constantine Karamanlis in summer 1974 and currently led by Kyriakos Mitsotakis, scion of a powerful political family, won the twin electoral contest of May/June 2023 with a landslide. The victory was comprehensive both in terms of the votes received—over 40 per cent of those who cast their vote (abstention was over 45 per cent)—and because of the near collapse of Syriza (17.83 per cent) and the weak recovery of the other centre‐left party, PASOK (11.46 per cent). Moreover, far right and conservative parties, three in total, entered parliament, amassing some 12 per cent of the vote. We argue that two interlinked phenomena account for these developments. The first was the eclipse of conditions that created the Syriza phenomenon in Greece (the 2010–15 debt crisis); the second was the lack of a credible programmatic alternative that spoke to the middle classes on behalf of both centre‐left parties.

Gazing Homeland Politics: A Case Study of The Political Engagement of The Indonesian Diaspora Group Manila

As per the data provided by KPU, the 2019 Election witnessed the participation of 2,058,191 voters amongst the Indonesian Diaspora. This number marks an increase of 19,480 voters from the previous Presidential Election held in 2014, wherein 2,038,711 registered voters across 130 Indonesian representatives abroad had cast their votes. The surge in Indonesian Diaspora voters indicates their significant role in election contests. The involvement of the Indonesian Diaspora in homeland politics is significantly impacted by their ability to stay informed about current events and maintain solid familial ties with their home country. Online platforms and social media play an essential role in keeping the Diaspora apprised of political developments and expanding their understanding of the issues. This article explores the political engagement of Indonesian diaspora communities residing in Metro Manila, Philippines, in the lead-up to the 2019 elections. The research centers on a church member group in ICF Makati, which is conventionally regarded as a non-political organization. The study employs a blend of observations and interviews to investigate how the Indonesian diaspora community participates in political affairs. Specifically, the research scrutinizes how they deliberate on topics concerning their homeland's politics and exchange their perspectives on current political events. Findings indicate that the Indonesian Diaspora is becoming more discerning of the political landscape in their homeland. This is primarily due to the widespread political discourse taking place online. Social media platforms have made it effortless for people to remain actively informed about political developments in their home country. Additionally, the Indonesian Diaspora has demonstrated a heightened interest in homeland politics, particularly in the lead-up to elections, to express their imagined nationalism. Keywords: Diaspora group, Presidential Election 2019, Political Engagement, Social Media usage

The Evaluation of Alleged Defamation: A Forensic Linguistics Analysis

Defamation remains a prevalent occurrence on a global scale. In Indonesia, the fervor surrounding the outcomes of the 2014 presidential election contestation has led to a noticeable escalation in the level of fanaticism among supporters of the respective presidential and vice-presidential candidates. Frequently, the act of posting tweets on the social media platform Twitter can result in the author becoming entangled in a legal dispute pertaining to defamation. The objective of this research is to investigate the potential occurrence of defamation committed by Natalius Pigai, the former National Human Rights Commission (Komnas HAM) member. The analytical framework employed in this study to assess the linguistic techniques employed in the data, with the aim of identifying potential instances of defamation, was Appraisal Theory as proposed by Martin and White (2005). The data was extracted from a Twitter post authored by Natalius Pigai (@NataliusPigai2) on October 1, 2021. The findings indicated that Jokowi and Ganjar were subjected to poor evaluation in relation to their treatment of the Papuan population. The presence of this adverse evaluation also gives rise to the possibility of defamation in accordance with the provisions outlined in the Criminal Code and the ITE Law. The presence of credible factual evidence supports the assertion that Natalius Pigai's tweet can be classified as hate speech, which has the potential to result in defamation. The findings derived from this study could potentially facilitate the application of law enforcement strategies in the Indonesian police investigation, as well as in other nations that are undertaking comparable reforms to those observed in Indonesia.

The Political Parties Coalition Behaviour in Election: A Meta-Analysis

The formation of political party coalitions can be applied productively to patronage democracy, but this requires a broader comprehensive study and the addition of new conceptualizations. Therefore, this study aims to determine the development of research on the theme of political party coalition behavior from 2015 to 2021 indexed by Scopus. This study uses a scoping review method. The source of this research data comes from the Scopus database. The findings in this study that the coalition behavior of political parties will not be separated from the topic of voting behavior and the electoral system, this is evident in this study. The political parties in building coalitions must consider the level of electability by looking at behavior in the voters. Moreover, the electoral system will determine whether political parties need to form coalitions or not if they want to participate in electoral contestation. Furthermore, parliamentary elections and proportional representation are topics that have opportunities as novelties for future research related to this themes. Furthermore, Indonesia (southeast asia), Spain, Norway (Europa), Uruguay and Colombia (South America) have recently paid great attention to research on the political parties coalition behavior. The implications of the findings of this study are as a form of a reference for knowledge regarding the study of political parties. More than that, it is important to describe these findings because they can classify world research which so far has only been limited to individual findings.

Pelaksanaan Hak Pilih Masyarakat Baduy di Desa Kanekes Kabupaten Lebak Pada Pemilihan Umum 2019

This research aims to find out how the implementation of voting rights and the challenges faced in the implementation of voting rights of the Baduy community in Kanekes Village, Lebak Regency in the 2019 general election. The research uses a juridical-empirical method with data collected through document study and interview by using purposive sampling and snowball technique which is done directly through a list of questions and conducted on a rolling basis. All data obtained from the research will be compiled and analyzed qualitatively which includes data reduction, data presentation, and conclusion drawing. This study concludes that the Inner Baduy community has stricter rules in carrying out customary law it results in a prohibition on the establishment of polling stations in the Inner Baduy area, in addition to the existence of the Lunang customary value or Milu Kanu Meunang which is believed by the Baduy community, namely following the winner, this is an attitude of accepting and obeying government rules regardless of whoever the candidate or party wins the electoral contestation, this makes some of the Baduy community, especially the Inner Baduy, do not use their voting rights.

Utilizing Media Network and Big Data on Presidential Election’s Winning: A Case Study

Background: Media and big data can be used as a political communication tool to win the presidential election, as in the case study of the Jokowi-Ma'ruf Amin pair who made optimal use of these two tools to win the 2019 presidential election contest. With big data, the successful team moves more efficiently and on target in attracting potential voters in the 2019 Presidential Election. Aim: To analyze the use of media networks and big data by the Jokowi-Ma'ruf Amin pair in the 2019 Presidential Election. Method: This study uses a qualitative descriptive approach with a literature study method. Self-study review dipakai penulis dalam menyajikan topik yang dibahas dengan pemahaman atas subjek penelitian. Findings: In the case study of the Jokowi-Ma'ruf Amin candidate pair, the utilization of media networks and the use of big data to map the battle areas in the 2019 Presidential Election contestation, has brought the candidate pairs Joko Widodo and Ma'ruf Amin (as political actors supported by party institutions) bearer politics) to be the winner in the political contestation. This is none other than because the success team of the Jokowi-Ma'ruf Amin candidate pair has paid attention to all aspects to win in the political contest, and took steps to involve media both digital and non-digital to the fullest, and utilized big data analysis in determining steps in the campaign.

A Shift of Typology the Nuro’ulama’ KE PA PE’SSE’AN: Voter Typology Study of Madura Pandalungan Society in the 2019 Simultaneous Elections in Bondowoso Regency

Democracy which is synonymous with the exercise of power from the people, by the people, and for the people is realized by electing representatives of the people through general elections for members of the DPR, DPD, President and Vice President, and Provincial and Regency/City DPRD. For political purposes, it is known that there are typologies or characteristics of voters and these typologies are important in winning election contests. This study aims to identify the typological characteristics of the Madurese Pandalungan voters in the 2019 simultaneous elections in Bondowoso Regency as well as to obtain scientific information on the factors that influence them. The method used in this research is descriptive. The results of this study found that (1) The typology of Madurese Pandalungan voters in the 2019 simultaneous elections in Bondowoso Regency consisted of (a) typology of penter voters, (b) typology of nuro’ ulama’ voters, (c) typology of focal voters, (d) typology of ta’ro’nuro’ voters, and (e) typology of pa pe’sse’an. The domination of the nuro’ulama’ typology is greater, but there is a shift in typology from the nuro’ulama’ typology to the pa pe’sse’an voter typology. (2) The typology is influenced by factors (a) voter characteristics with variables of socio-cultural conditions and value systems, educational and economic factors, and kinship or family factors, (b) mass media factors, (c) characteristics of political parties and legislative candidates, and (d) amae’n pe’sse’ factors.

Commodification of Celebrities in the 2024 General Election Contestation

Commodification of Celebrities in the 2024 General Election Contestation

Extending contestation: opposition party strength and dissenting civil society engagement with autocratic elections

ABSTRACT How does the strength of political-party opposition affect government-critical civil society organisations (CSOs)’ engagement with autocratic elections? The question is particularly pertinent in the current context of deepening autocratization and repression of civic dissent. In this article, I explore the argument that strong opposition parties or coalitions facilitate CSOs’ acts of dissent by offering robust dual electoral contestation: they credibly compete for power and forcefully politicise electoral regulation. Strong opposition parties thereby change the incentives for dissent and make civic activism more possible and meaningful. The article investigates this through a qualitative comparison of two cases of autocratisation: Kenya with a strong opposition, and Uganda with a weak one. The analysis largely supports the argument. However, the comparison also demonstrates that even with a strong opposition, autocratisation makes CSO dissent a dangerous activity that requires a careful balancing between rewards and risks.

Electoral contests in the aftermath of military coups: how domestic constraints motivate praetorian conduct

ABSTRACT Inspired by recent studies about the effects of coups on future regime trajectories, the article examines the conduct of praetorian armies in electoral contests that occur in the aftermath of military coups. In some countries, putschist militaries refrain from interfering in post-coup elections and withdraw from executive power. In others, they rig elections in favour of their preferred candidate and become entrenched in executive power. In each outcome, coup makers play a different role in subsequent regime dynamics. To explain these different outcomes, the article designs an integrative framework and applies it to countries displaying different post-coup electoral outcomes over time. The findings reinforce skepticism about the democratisation potential of militaries and highlight the importance of intra-military factionalism on praetorian leaders. The article encourages scholars to engage in case-based and processual research linking coup makers to long-term regime dynamics and provides hypotheses guiding such research agendas.

SYNERGY OF INCLUSIVE GROUPS AS AN EFFORT TO RESOLVE IDENTITY POLITICS IN ELECTIONS

The practice of identity politics by exploiting the issue of SARA in the 2019 simultaneous election contestation has damaged the essence of democracy. This raises problems that threaten the unity and integrity of the Indonesian nation so it has implications for constituents in exercising their right to vote. Factors of diversity, structure and legal culture that are still weak are the main problems that demand to be resolved. This research focuses on efforts to gather and strengthen inclusive groups, namely active participation by the government, mass media, students and the community through a series of strategic steps in carrying out their functions. This study uses a type of normative research with secondary data types. Based on a philosophical, statutory and conceptual approach. From the research conducted, it was found that the synergy of internal (government) and external (community) roles based on the legal system in an inclusive manner is a step to overcome and resolve the problem of using SARA issues in attracting the votes of sympathizers, to create quality democracy.The practice of identity politics by exploiting the issue of SARA in the 2019 simultaneous election contestation has damaged the essence of democracy. This raises problems that threaten the unity and integrity of the Indonesian nation so it has implications for constituents in exercising their right to vote. Factors of diversity, structure and legal culture that are still weak are the main problems that demand to be resolved. This research focuses on efforts to gather and strengthen inclusive groups, namely active participation by the government, mass media, students and the community through a series of strategic steps in carrying out their functions. This study uses a type of normative research with secondary data types. Based on a philosophical, statutory and conceptual approach. From the research conducted, it was found that the synergy of internal (government) and external (community) roles based on the legal system in an inclusive manner is a step to overcome and resolve the problem of using SARA issues in attracting the votes of sympathizers, to create quality democracy.

Electoral Violence and Political Instability in Nigeria: Implication for National Cohesion

Nigeria had her first election in 1922 under the Clifford’s Constitution. Since then, under different dispensations, elections are held to fill various positions in both the legislative and executive arms of government. Elections in Nigeria are largely characterized with violence leading to loss of lives and wanton destruction of properties. Also, political parties are adorned with ethnic and regional colouration. Consequently, voters are largely ethnically and regionally biased in an attempt to put into office “one of their own.” This is the principal basis for the widespread electoral violence witnessed since independence in 1960. Successive governments have made frantic efforts to de-ethnicize and de-regionalize political contests and consequently achieve violence free and credible elections, particularly since the commencement of the Fourth Republic. These efforts have not achieved much in terms of stemming the occurrence of electoral violence. The corollary is fragmentation of the polity along ethno-religious and regional lines, thereby creating political instability and attendant inhibition of national cohesion since independence, six decades ago. Thus, the main objective of this paper is to show that electoral violence and the resultant political instability negatively affect national cohesion. The study adopted the State Compromise Paradigm to explain the need for sincerity among the political leaders of the different ethnic groups in the discharge of their duties and responsibilities in order to achieve national cohesion. The study relied mainly on secondary data focusing on political instability and weak national cohesion in the country. The study revealed that efforts at de-ethnicizing and de-regionalizing political contests as well as discouragement of violence in political contestation with ethno-religious bias had not yielded much positive results in the country. The paper concludes that unless and until electoral contestation in Nigeria is violence free, enduring political stability and national cohesion may remain unattainable. The study recommends, among other things, that state institutions should function for the benefit of all citizens, political leaders should avoid fanning the embers of ethnicity during elections and government should put in motion a sincere policy and programme for national cohesion.

Taiwan’s November 2022 Mid-term Election

In late 2022, Taiwan held its every four years mid-term election that was comprised of almost all of its local electoral contests; the ruling Democratic Progressive Party lost. President Tsai Ing-wen was blamed for the defeat for having focused excessively on tension with China while ignoring local problems. She was also seen to depend too much on the Biden administration’s China’s policy. After the election, observers predicted the election would give the opposition Nationalist Party (or Kuomintang, KMT) momentum to win the national presidential, vice-presidential and legislative election in January 2024. Subsequent events and polls, however, indicated a close contest.

Mendayung di Permukaan: Kritik Narasi Politik Jelang Pilihan Presiden 2024

The battle for political narratives ahead of the 2024 presidential election still leads to negative narratives such as issues of SARA, identity politics, hoaxes, black propaganda which cause polarization and division. The research intends to criticize this narrative so that the implementation of the 2024 election will run in a conducive and peaceful manner. The research method is a literature study on several articles that discuss political messages contained in narratives, campaigns or other political communication activities. Based on the findings, it seen that negative narratives have the potential to be reused in future contests. Elites need to be encouraged to work together and build a shared commitment to conduct political education, offer ideas and programs, reduce hoaxes, create new positive jargon and hashtags and design creative campaigns on social media. It creates politeness, mutual respect and foster civility as well as to reduce negative narratives in the public sphere upcoming presidential election contest.

Models and Political Attitudes of Fundamentalist Groups in Indonesian Presidential Elections

Islamic fundamentalist groups played an important role in Indonesia's 2019 presidential election. They openly sided with the number 2 candidate, Prabowo Subianto-Sandiaga Solahudin Uno. Even today, the presidential election was marked by polarization and religious sentiments that are very strong and sharp. This study examined the model of presidential election contestation that will likely take place in 2024, the position of fundamentalist groups in political contestation, and its relation to religious polarization trends. This qualitative research used a case study approach to explore political models and attitudes in presidential election contestation. Interest group theory was placed to analyze the issue. The results showed that the map of contestation that will occur in 2024 will still be the same as the 2019 presidential election contestation. Second, the division between religious groups will still occur in the 2024 presidential election. Third, the alignment of religious fundamentalist groups in the 2024 presidential election will lead to figures willing and able to accommodate their groups.

Aspiration Versus Apprehension: Economic Opportunities and Electoral Preferences

AbstractRecent studies take increasingly refined views of how socioeconomic conditions influence political behaviour. We add to this literature by exploring how voters' prospective evaluations of long-term economic and social opportunities relate to electoral contestation versus the stabilization of the political-economic system underpinning the knowledge society. Using survey data from eight West European countries, we show that positive prospects are associated with higher support for mainstream parties (incumbents and opposition) and lower support for radical parties on all levels of material well-being. Our results support the idea that ‘aspirational voters’ with positive evaluations of opportunities (for themselves or their children) represent an important stabilizing force in advanced democratic capitalism. However, we also highlight the importance of radical party support among ‘apprehensive voters’, who are economically secure but perceive a lack of long-term opportunities. To assess the implications of these findings, we discuss the relative importance of these groups across different countries.

EDUKASI PEMILIH MUDA DALAM PILKADA DI OGAN ILIR SUMATERA SELATAN

At present, especially in Ogan Ilir District, the COVID-19 pandemic conditions had triggered a food war between candidates in the 2020 Ogan Ilir Regional Election (pilkada). Although social media, particularly Facebook, facilitates voter participation in various political issues in the regional elections, voters had the potential to became political victims because they consumed fake news, slander, and hate speech. One of the layers of the population that was vulnerable to becoming victims was youth voters (17-23 years old). As youth voters will continue the political leadership relay in Ogan Ilir District, there should be a systematic effort to increase their thinking and political awareness. Even though every day they was presented with patronage practices and emotional political relations, youth voters should be given the opportunity to understand and elaborate election contestation from a different perspective. Money politics may not be prevented, but the young generation must still be introduced to the concept of the ideal pilkada. This service activity was designed to increase the political knowledge of the officials/members of the Karang Taruna in Ogan Ilir District with the tutorial lecture and group discussion methods. The contribution of this service activity to the increase in knowledge and political insight of the participants was proven statistically, t(52) = 11.25, p <0.001. This article recommends that similar activities be carried out in a sustainable manner by various parties with an interest in the process of empowering the younger generation.

Understanding layered dominance of political dynasties in India: A de-hyphenated reading of dynastic representation and dynasty-led parties

India has witnessed the dominance of a plethora of political dynasties, both at the national as well as the state level, since independence. The post-colonial Indian state adopted a liberal constitutional democracy premised upon modern representative institutions. However, the primordial principle of hereditary succession of power resiliently co-existed in the form of powerful political families that have continued to impact the nature of Indian democratic political discourse till today. The political parties are an instrumental driver of political life in all modern representative democracies including India. Hence, it is crucial to study how the Indian party system has consolidated the prominence of political dynasties especially from the 1970s onwards, in the realm of both party organisation and the representative institutions. In this context, the article attempts to problematise the nature of dynastic politics in India and offers a framework to analyse the causes of its dominance to understand how it impacts the right to equal political opportunity and electoral competitiveness. The article makes three arguments. First, to better understand the amorphous nature of dynastic politics, two elements – dynastic representation in elected institutions and dynasty-led parties – need to be studied distinctively, despite some commonalities. Second, dynastic representation is largely ubiquitous in most political parties (in both dynasty-led and non-dynasty-led parties) due to the party's preference for legacy candidates and their higher chances of electoral winnability. Third, the article offers two typologies of dynasty-led parties, explaining why the dynasties’ grip over their parties, particularly in recent times, appears to be mostly performance-immune and in what circumstances some dynasty-led parties not only perform better in electoral contests than others but also face tough competition for retaining their dynastic control over the party. Lastly, the article concludes with some reflections on how dynastic representation and dynasty-led parties impact the form and substance of the Indian party system and democratic politics.

The political benefits of student loan debt relief

Are people likely to reward politicians who support canceling student loan debt? This paper draws on original conjoint and survey experimental data to assess the effects of student debt relief proposals on voter behavior. Using data collected 3 months prior to Biden’s announcement of a specific plan for broad-based student debt relief, the paper addresses two interrelated questions: How do policy details—such as eligibility restrictions and the amount of debt canceled—shape voter support for candidates who embrace student loan cancellation? And second, will executive action by President Biden increase Democrats’ chances of winning in 2022 or 2024? We find evidence to suggest that candidates who support student debt relief plans offering generous debt cancellation while minimizing eligibility restrictions get the largest boost in support from voters, especially for key Democratic constituencies. We also find that executive action on student debt increases the likelihood that key groups would support Democratic congressional candidates in upcoming electoral contests. These results offer the first systematic evidence exploring the potential political ramifications of enacting student debt relief.

The United States, Great Britain, and the Chilean Presidential Election of 1942

Scheduled for February 1, 1942, the election of the successor of Chilean president Pedro Aguirre Cerda, who passed away on November 25, 1941, confronted the United States and Great Britain with an unexpected challenge and forced their governments to reassess their policies toward Latin America amidst a war that, after the Japanese attack on Pearl Harbor, had become a truly world affair. Until then, the United States and Great Britain had not openly taken sides in Chilean electoral contests. Economic interests had been a significant concern of U.S. and British diplomats stationed in Chile, but no strategic alliance with national political forces had come about as a result of those interests. In the case of the United States, moreover, the implementation of the Good Neighbor policy by U.S. President Franklin D. Roosevelt’s administration had stood on the principle of non-intervention in the domestic affairs of Latin American countries. The policy was more germane to U.S. hegemony over Central America and the Caribbean than to relations with South American countries, but it still operated as a framework for U.S. foreign policy decisions regarding the latter, including Chile. The election of February 1942, in which U.S. and British diplomats and intelligence agents identified one of the candidates as an ally of the Axis countries, forced the U.S. foreign policy apparatus to ponder the possibility of intervention in the race in a way that had no direct precedent and, more importantly, required a significant reappraisal of the principles and pertinence of the Good Neighbor policy in the new reality imposed by a war in which the United States was directly involved.