Election Campaign Research Articles

Unpacking Public Satisfaction: An Analysis of the 2024 Lok Sabha Elections

Voters’ perception of how satisfied they are with the work of the incumbent government is decisive for their voting decision, with satisfaction in most cases leading to support for the incumbent government and dissatisfaction leading to votes against it. This article is not about exploring the relationship between satisfaction with the incumbent party’s performance and voting for it. The main objective is to identify the factors that contribute to voter satisfaction. What aspects of the incumbent government’s performance or policy influence their positive assessment? Considering the election campaigns and prominent issues leading up to the elections and drawing insights from existing literature, this analysis examines the potential determinants of voter satisfaction. It aims to identify how these factors explain voter satisfaction or dissatisfaction. The findings reveal that voter satisfaction with the incumbent government during the 2024 Lok Sabha election was mainly influenced by recent and visible accomplishments rather than long-term factors. The construction of the Ram Mandir and positive evaluations of the government’s performance on economic issues played a significant role in increasing satisfaction.

The Infrastructure of Domestic Influence Operations: Cyber Troops and Public Opinion Manipulation Through Social Media in Indonesia

Coordinated influence campaigns on social media have become an increasingly important tool for political and economic elites to sway public opinion in their favor. As the study of this phenomenon has so far largely focused on traces of such campaigns on social media itself, we know relatively little about the people and networks implementing them. Furthermore, existing literature offers limited analytical handles to delineate and analyze different forms of influence operations. To address these challenges, we employ interviews with fifty-two members of the “cyber troops” implementing such operations in Indonesia. On the basis of this material, we propose that three key features—being secretly funded, highly coordinated, and involving mostly anonymous accounts—distinguish cyber troops from other types of domestic influence operations. In Indonesia cyber troops involve transient, project-based collaborations among freelancing individuals, not coincidentally mirroring the character of the country’s election campaigns. This rapidly growing industry is cementing the already oligarchic character of Indonesia’s democracy.

The Use of AI by Election Campaigns

The Use of AI by Election Campaigns

Analisis Bahasa Anies-Muhaimin pada Tayangan “Usai Putusan MK Anies-Muhaimin Menghormati dan Beri Selamat Ke Prabowo Gibran” di Channel Youtube Kompas TV Sukabumi

In political campaigns, rhetoric plays an important role to attract public attention. The Anies-Muhaimin candidate pair utilised the Youtube social media platform to campaign and discuss with the people through the "DESAK ANIES" and "SLEPET, IMIN" programmes, which aimed to deliver political messages and increase popularity. The programmes include interviews, panel discussions and vlogs. This research uses qualitative methods to understand the dynamics of their political campaigns. The research revealed that the rhetoric of the Anies-Muhaimin pair had a significant impact on public acceptance during the 2024 election campaign. The combination of ethos, logos, and pathos used in their speeches succeeded in creating a space of acceptance and trust that the constitutional process had been completed with the results of the final Constitutional Court decision. The ethos rhetorical technique was also used by Anies to recognise Prabowo's credibility as president-elect. As a result, Anies-Muhaimin's rhetoric was able to create a fair and peaceful democratic atmosphere, and restore the divisions that occurred during the election process, making the community back in harmony and order during the election

A bibliometric analysis of web 2.0 in election campaign

A bibliometric analysis of web 2.0 in election campaign

Reaching the Voters: Parties’ Use of Google Ads in the 2021 German Federal Election

Election campaigns during the pandemic showcased the increased use of costly digital campaigning by parties. While many studies focus on the use of Facebook, X (formerly Twitter), and other social networking sites during elections, parties’ use of Google Ads remains widely unstudied. This is surprising given that parties spend a substantial proportion of their budget on Google Ads and Google reports on this spending and other details of the ads in its <em>Transparency Report</em>. Based on the equalisation vs. normalisation thesis, we identify party factors (size, age, government/opposition status, and electoral strongholds) that affect parties’ use of this instrument to a different degree in their campaigns. We aim to highlight parties’ use of Google Ads during the campaigns for the 2021 German Bundestag election, relying on the official data provided via Google’s Ad Library. We discuss both empirical work on the factors that determine the use of Google Ads and conceptual work on the merit and perils of such ads in democratic elections, and we present descriptive and exploratory findings of our deep dive into the archive of Google Ads.

Editorial: Data-Driven Campaigning in a Comparative Context—Toward a 4th Era of Political Communication?

Contemporary political campaigning takes place both online and offline, and can be data-driven. In this piece, we review existing knowledge around data-driven campaigning (DDC) and introduce the new contributions made by the pieces within this thematic issue. We reveal how the studies included in this thematic issue of <em>Media and Communication </em>contribute to this existing knowledge by providing an up-to-date account of how DDC in general, and political microtargeting in specific, have been employed in election campaigns between 2021 and 2023, in a range of countries: France, Germany, the Netherlands, Sweden, and the US. As a collection, these studies highlight the variance that exists in the degree to which DDC is practiced, the range of DDC tools used, and attitudes toward DDC. In recent election campaigns, DDC takes many forms, and disapproval of DDC varies depending on how it is implemented.

Political Breakthrough in a Rural Community during the 2011 Sarawak State Election: An Ethnographic Perspective

This article draws on empirical data and ethnographic evidence as a springboard to explore issues affecting narratives and observations made during the 2011 Sarawak State Election. It throws light on ways in which communities and cultures at the periphery of the Malaysian nation state grapple with the potentials and consequences of elections in the process of economic, political and social transformation. Eschewing aspects of candidates’ selections, electoral campaign process and actual voting behaviour of individual voters, the main analysis is of the formulation of local understandings and meanings of the state elections in two rural settlements of Ba’ Kelalan and Bario located close to the border between Sarawak and Kalimantan. This article suggests that an account of their experiences is a necessity in order to understand what functions and whose interest elections serve, and most importantly what election actually does and means within particular circumstances of local history. As a political phenomenon, elections can look different from the perspective of those close to the centre of power in contrast to those with little power within a political hierarchy.

The Role of Misogyny in the 2022 Korean Presidential Election: Understanding the Backlash against Feminism in Industrialized Democracies

Abstract Despite increasing scholarly attention to backlash against feminism, little is known about anti-feminist movements in East Asia. This study examines the 2022 South Korean presidential election campaign, in which the political parties sought to capitalize on political resistance to the perceived advance of feminism. This embrace of male grievance as a political force was arguably led by former People Power Party (PPP) chairman Lee Jun-seok, leading commenters to argue that support for Lee is rooted in misogyny. We examine this claim empirically by drawing on a novel survey to estimate the association between misogynistic attitudes, measured through devaluation, perception of women as manipulative, and distrust, and support for Lee. We find that misogynistic attitudes are positively correlated with support for Lee, but not with presidential vote choice. We interpret this as suggesting that the association between misogyny and support for Lee is a manifestation of the desire for symbolic representation. We discuss the implications of how this association can further influence the gender divide, both in Korea and beyond, and conclude with recommendations for further research.

Data-Campaigning on Facebook: Do Metrics of User Engagement Drive French Political Parties’ Publications?

Research on data-driven campaigning has mostly focused on the strategies of central campaign teams. However, there is a lack of evidence explaining how parties and supporters use data-driven campaigning techniques to organise their social media campaigning. Do user engagement metrics influence the choice of campaign themes by encouraging political parties to concentrate their communication on issues that are most liked, commented on, and shared? Our study focuses on the use of Facebook by French political parties and their supporters during the 2022 presidential election campaign. We conducted a supervised content analysis based on machine learning to examine their Facebook posts (<em>n</em> = 17,060). Our results show that the issues prioritized by parties on Facebook may be different from those that are most prominent in their broader communications. In most cases, however, these themes are not chosen based on user engagement, even for parties that claim to have developed their base through digital channels. Instead, the choice of themes seems influenced by more traditional campaign strategies, such as the desire to capture the electorate of their closest rival. In our conclusion, we discuss the implications of these findings for the adoption of data-driven campaigning in digital election communication across Europe.

Linguistic Landscape and Cultural Approach through Minangkabau and Malay Language as Election Campaign Strategies

Linguistic Landscape and Cultural Approach through Minangkabau and Malay Language as Election Campaign Strategies

Perceived political incivility and trust in government: the moderating roles of election news exposure and favorability of election outcomes*

ABSTRACT While extensive research has shown that political incivility can lead to unfavorable democratic outcomes, our understanding of the dynamics in election campaigns is limited. The current study investigates the effects of perceived political incivility on trust in government by taking into account both informational and motivational factors during elections: the distinct channels through which individuals receive election news (institutional, social media, and messaging applications) and whether the election outcome is (un)favorable to the individual. Drawing from the literatures on online incivility and motivated reasoning, we argue that both election news exposure and favorability of election outcomes could moderate the effects of perceived incivility. We conducted a two-wave panel survey (pre- and post-election) during the 2022 Malaysian General Election (Wave-1 N = 1800; Wave-2 N = 901). We found that increased incivility perceptions over time and unfavorable election results diminished trust in government, and there was evidence that increased exposure to election news from institutional news sources increased trust in government from pre- to post-election. For those who found the election outcome unfavorable, increased social media exposure resulted in a greater loss of trust in the government in response to increased perceptions of incivility during the campaign. These results underscore the importance of both informational (news media) and motivational (favorability of election outcome) factors, as well as their combined effects on individuals’ responses to political incivility during elections.

Immigration in the 2024 US presidential election campaign: policy stalemate, disinformation, and a call for mass deportation

Immigration has been one of the most contentious and defining issues of the 2024 presidential election, rivaled only by economic policy and national security. The Republican candidate, former President Donald Trump, has largely succeeded in setting the terms of the debate – hammering away at his Democratic rival, Vice President Kamala Harris, with hyperbolic claims that she supports “open borders” and false accusations that the US is experiencing a wave of violent crime committed by migrants. Trump’s immigration rhetoric relies increasingly on lies, misinformation, and racist stereotypes. But his claim that immigration is “out of control” – and his insistence that firm measures are needed to address it – have become central to the Republican platform, and one of Trump’s most frequently repeated campaign promises is that he will deport millions of undocumented immigrants soon after taking office. Why is immigration such a controversial issue in the US? How have the different administrations dealt with it? Is it an overused issue in this campaign?

How does the consent model in Australia’s Privacy Act 1988 (Cth) undermine our human right to privacy?

ABSTRACT Cambridge Analytica was a political consulting business that became known for its use of personal data obtained from social media platform Facebook, to drive election campaigns on behalf of its clients. Their most famous client was the winner of the 2016 US Presidential election. When it was realised that Cambridge Analytica had acquired Australian Facebook users’ data, the Australian privacy regulator started litigation against Facebook to enforce the Privacy Act 1988 (Cth). This article examines how the Facebook litigation and subsequent law reform activities shed light on the central, yet fictitious role of the consent model. A historical and cultural analysis reveals how consent to surrender private information is a symptom of social conditions in which we take it for granted that individuals, rather than business, will bear the costs of poor privacy outcomes. Our collective ‘consent realism’ not only constrains the imagination of policy makers but interferes with a person’s autonomy in forming and developing opinions. However, a right to privacy can be more viably re-asserted, at least in response to the Cambridge Analytica incident, within the framework of Australia’s implied freedom of political communication. Consent realism can thus potentially be overcome in favour of human rights principles.

Reducing Racial Asymmetries in the Survey Overestimation of Voter Turnout

Abstract Research has consistently demonstrated that Black respondents are more likely than their White counterparts to overstate their plans or previous decisions to vote. We propose that by using a single question regarding turnout intention and candidate preference (rather than the typical approach of using two separate questions), survey researchers can reduce these racial asymmetries. The reason, we suggest, is that doing so encourages Black respondents to consider the turnout question through the lens of candidates and parties, rather than as a civic responsibility they have toward other Black Americans, which therefore mitigates the social desirability bias that leads to overestimation. We evaluate this argument using a survey experiment that randomly asks a control group of survey respondents to answer two voting questions—one about turnout and one about vote choice—and asks the other half of the sample, the treatment group, a single question that combines the two. Using original data from a nationally representative survey, we find that using the single turnout/preference question reduces the racial asymmetry in turnout overestimation substantially. We further observe that the decrease is concentrated among respondents with relatively high levels of campaign indifference and especially racial civic consciousness, a condition that is much more common among Black respondents than among White respondents. We believe these findings are particularly relevant to election scholars and campaign professionals, given their focus on understanding the thought processes of survey respondents and prospective voters, as well as improving the validity of self-reports in survey research.

The Meaning of Political Messages in Carousel Posts on @ganjar_pranowo’s Instagram Account during the 2024 Electoral Campaign Period

The Meaning of Political Messages in Carousel Posts on @ganjar_pranowo’s Instagram Account during the 2024 Electoral Campaign Period

Social media homophily among women and men political candidates

Abstract This paper assesses differences between women and men political candidates in their likelihood to interact with peers who share the same gender, political affiliation, electoral district, incumbency, age, and the governmental status of their party. Using Twitter (currently X) data from Finland’s 2019 election campaign, we find a tendency towards homophily—a tendency to interact predominantly with similar others—among all candidates across the various studied characteristics. However, some gender differences in the tendency towards homophily emerge. Notably, women are more inclined than men to retweet candidates from their own party but are less likely to retweet peers with the same incumbency status and the same gender. Our multivariate analyses further show that retweet tendencies based on age, shared electoral district and party governmental status exhibit no significant gender disparities. These nuanced variations in homophilous relations highlight the complex interplay between gender and other characteristics in candidates’ social media interactions during electoral campaigns.

Using social media to communicate competence, ordinariness, and authenticity in political leadership

Abstract Understanding how political leaders use social media during election campaigns is a growing area of research, with existing literature focussing on single-election examinations of platform usage (Smith 2021). This paper instead conducts a longitudinal examination of political leadership on Twitter/X at the 2015, 2017, and 2019 UK general elections, focussing on the different ways in which leaders portray their competence, ordinariness, and authenticity. In analysing 2,694 posts during the short campaign period by the various leaders of the Conservatives, Labour, Liberal Democrats, and the Scottish National Party, enables the examination of both changing social media behaviours and individual constructions of leadership under the same party label.

Gerindra Party's Legislative Election Campaign Communication Plan

The Gerindra Party's communication tactics during parliamentary elections are examined in this article. It emphasizes how the party has adjusted to the changing media environment by combining digital strategies on sites like Facebook and Twitter with more conventional techniques like town hall meetings. The study points to a knowledge gap regarding the creation and consumption of political messaging in Indonesia's ever-changing digital landscape. The study attempts to evaluate the efficacy of these tactics through a combination of media content analysis, interviews, and documentary reviews. The findings show that, despite difficulties with crisis management, Gerindra's strategy was effective in attracting a varied electorate. Political parties that are adjusting to internet communication and voter mobilization may find this study useful.

Political Labeling on Social Media: a Netnographic Study of “SDM Rendah” in Indonesia’s 2024 Presidential Election on X (Twitter)

The 2024 presidential election campaign in Indonesia has produced various unique phenomena, including the emergence of the "Low Human Resources'' (SDM Rendah) label directed at the supporters of candidate pair 02 by the supporters of candidate pairs 01 and 03. The existence of this label has become a spotlight because it reflects the dynamics of politics and social interaction within the community. In conducting the netnographic research strategy in this study, the primary focus is on gaining a deep understanding of the underlying reasons for this labeling, as well as how it affects public perception and the overall political dynamics. The social media platform X was selected as the research subject due to its crucial role in facilitating communicative interaction, including the labeling process. It is expected that the results of this research can provide deeper insights into the phenomenon of labeling in the political realm on the X social media platform, as well as provide a better understanding for politicians and the public regarding the importance of using social media platforms wisely in the political context. This research also has significant academic implications in the field of communication science, particularly in the theory of Computer-Mediated Communication (CMC), which can contribute to a deeper understanding of the role of social media in contemporary politics. The practical implications cannot be overlooked either, especially in the efforts to raise awareness of the power and impact of social media platforms in the political context during the 2024 presidential campaign in Indonesia.