Reducing Racial Asymmetries in the Survey Overestimation of Voter Turnout

Abstract

Abstract Research has consistently demonstrated that Black respondents are more likely than their White counterparts to overstate their plans or previous decisions to vote. We propose that by using a single question regarding turnout intention and candidate preference (rather than the typical approach of using two separate questions), survey researchers can reduce these racial asymmetries. The reason, we suggest, is that doing so encourages Black respondents to consider the turnout question through the lens of candidates and parties, rather than as a civic responsibility they have toward other Black Americans, which therefore mitigates the social desirability bias that leads to overestimation. We evaluate this argument using a survey experiment that randomly asks a control group of survey respondents to answer two voting questions—one about turnout and one about vote choice—and asks the other half of the sample, the treatment group, a single question that combines the two. Using original data from a nationally representative survey, we find that using the single turnout/preference question reduces the racial asymmetry in turnout overestimation substantially. We further observe that the decrease is concentrated among respondents with relatively high levels of campaign indifference and especially racial civic consciousness, a condition that is much more common among Black respondents than among White respondents. We believe these findings are particularly relevant to election scholars and campaign professionals, given their focus on understanding the thought processes of survey respondents and prospective voters, as well as improving the validity of self-reports in survey research.