Electoral Behavior Research Articles

The Underpinning Determinants of Voting Behavior: The Case of Sudan

This article tries to examine the underpinning determinants of voting behavior in Sudan. It adopts a descriptive method and an inter-disciplinary approach with empirical explanation to verify the hypothesis that “voting behavior in Sudan is a function of religious sectarianism and ethnicity more than other determinants, such as ideology, class or socio-economic status.” It discusses the interrelationship between voting behavior and other relevant concepts, such as political behavior, electoral behavior, and political culture. It explains how several determinants/factors converge on influencing the voting behavior. The article notes that the vigorous influence of ethnicity and religious sectarianism over the political behavior in Sudan resulted in apparently irrational voting behavior. These two determinants have marked the political behavior in Sudan since it regained independence in 1956. However, the Uprising of 2018 ushered in an emergence of a new conscious generation that might lead to a paradigm shift for political and voting behavior. The article proposes the adoption of Consociational democracy with proportional representation and parliamentary system to guarantee the representation of minorities and sustain a fair share of power and wealth to put an end to instability and wars. In the case of Sudan, it is advisable that more attention should be paid to the development of political culture and efficacious civic engagement in politics should be boosted to increase conscious political participation to pave the way for sustainable democracy.

Wählen in der Polykrise: Die türkische Präsidentschafts- und Parlamentswahlen vom Mai 2023 in Deutschland

Erdoğan’s success in the May 2023 presidential election came as a surprise to many . It masks long-term changes in Turkey’s party system . One constant, however, is the strong support for Erdoğan in many Western European migration societies . The article first sum- marizes the explanatory factors for the deviating electoral behavior of the Turkish electorate in Germany and then outlines the interest-driven reform of Turkish electoral law under AKP governments . In the empirical part, the results are analyzed cross-sectionally at the level of the 17 locations of polling stations in Germany and long-term developments are summarized . The regional strongholds of the parties across Germany are also stable in the long term .

Локальные этнические сообщества и политика: восприятие власти у сойотов

The issues of electoral behavior and the interaction of the electorate and power among the indigenous small people of the soyots, who live in one of the most remote regions of Russia – the Okinsky rayon of Buryatia, are covered. According to the results of a statistical analysis and sociological surveys conducted by the authors in 2021 and 2022 (n = 279) the characteristic features of the political culture of the soyots were revealed. With the framework of theory of motivation to vote of A. Blais and J.-F. Daoust, soyots tend to participate in elections mainly because of a sense of obligation and fear of being seen as asocial by their society. Soyots are characterized by a higher level of support for pro-government candidates and the ruling party, which is based on a sense of non-participation in the federal agenda due to their geographical remoteness, which implies their conformist behavior. In the Okinsky district, there is a high activity of local authorities and a variety of non-trivial political practices, which are described in the article. A pronounced ethnic feature is the high level of political influence among religious actors (buddhist lamas and shamans), that is low researched yet, as well as the presence of public institutions that defend the issues of legislative initiatives at the federal level, which in perception are equated with government.

Відносини по лінії центр-периферія в Україні: ресурси підвищення стійкості держави

This article identifies key factors that helped reducing the conflict potential in centre-periphery relations in Ukraine and enabled their contribution to state resilience in 2022–2023. The analytical framework is based on rational choice institutionalism and cleavage theory. The article argues that the conflict potential of center-periphery relations in the past was triggered by political competition between key central political actors for a subordination of subnational political actors, in order to strengthen their own positions in the Center. The article specifies two factors that helped reducing the conflict potential of centre-periphery relations and enabled a positive input from them into Ukraine’s state resilience in 2022–2023. The first factor is an institutional one, i. e. the decentralization reform (2014–2020), which strengthened duties and resources of local self-government rather than regional administrations. The second factor is a non-institutional one; it is a „nationalization” of electoral behaviour in democratic contests that led to the emergence of a dominant central political actor and turn away from competitive struggles between central political actors with the help of subnational actors. A shift in the pattern of center-periphery relations was visible in changing interaction of the dominant central political actor with subnational actors during the 2020 regional elections. Still, the article acknowledges that such institutionalized and non-institutionalized changes cannot automatically neutralize clan or oligarchic structures at the local level. Finally, the article identified three types of concrete contributions of Ukraine's new center-periphery relations to increasing state resilience in 2022–2023. They happened via enabling the input of local self-government into territorial defense, the support of internally displaced persons, and Ukraine’s recovery from the Russia’s war.

Die Berliner Abgeordnetenhauswahlen vom 26. September 2021 und vom 12. Februar 2023: Von Rot-Rot-Grün über Rot-Grün-Rot zu Schwarz-Rot

From the beginning, the red-red-green coalition formed after the election of 2016 had to fight against severe problems . Especially the SPD lost public support, which led to the replacement of Michael Müller by Franziska Giffey as leading candidate for the 2021 elec- tion . The SPD won the election, however with the worst of her results after World War II . The Greens, which scored second, the CDU and the FDP gained votes, the Left Party and especially the AfD had to cope with losses . While Giffey pleaded for a government formation with the Greens and the FDP, in her party the preference for a red-green-red coalition prevailed, which was also clearly preferred by the Greens . In addition to the governing mayor Giffey, the new government consisted of three members from each of the three coalition parties . However, because the election was improperly prepared by the administration and a multitude of mistakes occurred, the Berlin Constitutional Court in November 2002 declared the election void and ordered to repeat it, which was done on February 12, 2023 . By a considerable margin, this election was won by the CDU . All governing parties had to cope with losses, the AfD gained a little bit whereas the FDP failed to overcome the five percent hurdle . In both elections, the electoral behaviour of the social groups did not change considerably . In all kinds of relevant candidate orientations of the voters, Giffey scored best in comparison to her competitors Kai Wegner (CDU) and Bettina Jarasch (The Greens), although her support declined in 2023 and the distance to Wegner decreased . Concerning political contents, the data showed a very pessimistic climate of opinion, which was reflected in the bad evaluation of the government . Although the CDU was not really a convincing alternative for many voters, the party had the best policy competences in most of the relevant issues . Even before the CDU-led exploratory talks to form the new govern- ment ended, the SPD leadership surprisingly, and to the annoyance of the Greens and the Left Party, decided to seek a coalition with the CDU . The coalition negotiations of the party leaderships flowed smoothly; the SPD, however, was divided and the members only narrowly voted for the coalition treaty . The start of the new government was problematic, because Wegner needed three ballots to be elected as new governing major . In addition to Wegner, the government consists of five members of each of the two parties .

Локальные этнические сообщества и политика: восприятие власти у сойотов

The issues of electoral behavior and the interaction of the electorate and power among the indigenous small people of the soyots, who live in one of the most remote regions of Russia – the Okinsky rayon of Buryatia, are covered. According to the results of a statistical analysis and sociological surveys conducted by the authors in 2021 and 2022 (n = 279) the characteristic features of the political culture of the soyots were revealed. With the framework of theory of motivation to vote of A. Blais and J.-F. Daoust, soyots tend to participate in elections mainly because of a sense of obligation and fear of being seen as asocial by their society. Soyots are characterized by a higher level of support for pro-government candidates and the ruling party, which is based on a sense of non-participation in the federal agenda due to their geographical remoteness, which implies their conformist behavior. In the Okinsky district, there is a high activity of local authorities and a variety of non-trivial political practices, which are described in the article. A pronounced ethnic feature is the high level of political influence among religious actors (buddhist lamas and shamans), that is low researched yet, as well as the presence of public institutions that defend the issues of legislative initiatives at the federal level, which in perception are equated with government.

Особенности протестной активности в городах-миллионниках на примере Екатеринбурга

The article attempts to use the example of a large Russian city (Yekaterinburg) to reveal two components of protest: “real” and electoral. The features of large cities that cause protest activity are analyzed. It is estimated how the political history of Yekaterinburg influenced the formation of the political culture of the city's residents and the format of their political activity. The analysis of protest activity of Yekaterinburg residents over the past two years is carried out, as a result of which protest activity is classified into four categories: urban planning protest; protest against restrictive measures imposed in the region in connection with the spread of COVID-19; protest against the increase in tariffs for housing and communal services, and other protest topics. Based on electoral statistics, including the presidential elections of the Russian Federation (2018), the All-Russian vote on the approval of amendments to the Constitution of the Russian Federation (2020), the elections of deputies of the State Duma of the Russian Federation (2021), the elections of deputies of the Legislative Assembly of the Sverdlovsk region (2021), the elections of the Governor of the Sverdlovsk region (2022) are made conclusions about the peculiarities of electoral behavior of Yekaterinburg residents. The strategies and forms of electoral protest are determined. As a result, the proven methodological approach can be used to analyze the specifics of the electoral protest of individual territories and regions of the Russian Federation.

The link between subjective well-being and electoral participation: Cross-national perspective

The article examines the relationship between subjective well-being and elections turnout. The purpose of the article is to determine how subjective well-being affects turnout. To achieve the purpose, the link between subjective well-being and electoral participation should be studied along with the influence that political regime has on this link. The majority of previous research papers indicate that there is a positive relationship between the studied variables. Most of these studies were based on data from specific democratic countries. Little attention has been paid to cross-national comparison and to countries with less developed democratic institutions. According to the theory of retrospective voting, voters tend to use elections to reward or punish the incumbent. Thus, it can be hypothesized that subjective well-being increases the likelihood to participate in elections, and that the democratic context strengthens the link between subjective well-being and voters turnout. The joined dataset of the European Social Survey and World Values Survey is used for the empirical analysis. Multilevel binary logistic regression is used as the main method of analysis. The results of the study show a statistically significant relationship between the high level of subjective well-being and voter turnout. People with higher levels of subjective well-being are more likely to vote in elections. In democratic countries, this relationship is stronger. These findings support the conclusions of previous research and confirm a modified version of the retrospective voting theory, which uses subjective well-being as a predictor of electoral behavior.

The Russian Army in the Electoral Battles of 1993–1999

The formation of electoral democracy in Russia coincided with the entry of the state into a crisis phase of systemic transformation. The position of the military became especially difficult, which turned into an impoverished “military electorate”, for whose votes various parties fought. The purpose of the article is based on the study of specialized literature, as well as the analysis of a wide range of sources (periodicals, sociological research, electoral legislation) to consider the electoral behavior of military personnel in an extremely difficult situation that has developed both in the army and in the country. The relevance of the topic is an attempt to identify contradictions between the true electoral sympathies of soldiers and officers and the desire of the high command to influence the process of the free expression of their subordinates, as well as to distort the voting results in a more favorable light to convince the authorities of the loyalty of the Armed Forces. The scientific novelty consists in conducting a comprehensive study using an interdisciplinary approach (formal legal, historical, sociological, etc.). The article examines the norms of electoral legislation that regulated the process of implementing the electoral and political rights of military personnel, reveals the socio-political phenomenon of the “military electorate”, examines the federal election campaigns of 1993–1999. Since 1993, genuine election results in the army environment have been characterized by a high level of protest voting. But as soon as in the late 1990s there were trends to improve the situation, as well as a leader who put defense and security issues at the forefront, the army immediately felt and supported these changes. At the same time, the Russian army itself in the 1990s did not try to act as a consolidated electoral force to influence the crisis.

Електоральна активність як індикатор суспільної консолідації

The article is devoted to the analysis of the level of electoral activity of Ukrainian citizens in the national elections during the years of independence. A statistical analysis of voter participation in presidential, parliamentary elections, local self-government elections, and nationwide referenda held over the past decades has shown significant differences in the indicators of electoral activity. The dependence of the level of indicators of this activity on the urgency of the socio-political situation at the time of the elections was revealed. It is shown that the key factors in increasing the level of electoral activity are voters’ awareness of challenges and threats to the processes of state formation, as well as the desire to influence the vectors of the country’s civilizational development, the choice of ways and forms of state policy implementation.The thesis about the determinism of the level of electoral activity during the national elections by the public demand for the correction of the domestic and foreign political directions of further development is substantiated. It is shown that the low level of electoral activity during local self-government elections is an evidence of awareness of the priority of reforming power relations at the central level and a demonstration of the dependence of local authorities on them. The need to strengthen the decentralization reform, as well as the development of potentially effective forms of direct democracy – nationwide and local referendums as effective tools for studying and taking into account public opinion, fulfilling the needs and interests of citizens, is emphasized. Mobilization is defined as a key aspect of citizens’ electoral activity – as a form of public reaction to the aggravation of political situation in the country. It is shown that the level of electoral activity largely depends on motivational and meaningful prerequisites – a set of motives, values, beliefs, attitudes, interests and other factors that influence the electoral behavior of citizens.A significant increase in the level of electoral activity against the background of threats to democratic development and state-building processes indicates the rooting of democratic values in the mass consciousness, the attitude to the realization of not only personal or group, but also socially significant interests. It is argued that the level of social consolidation increases in the conditions of challenges to the democratic progress of the country, the emergence of threats to its independence or the strengthening of foreign political influences. It has been proven that precisely in such key periods of state formation, electoral activity becomes an evidence of social consolidation, a peculiar indicator of it.

Changing Patterns in Electoral Behaviour: Electoral Volatility in Hungary and Slovakia

The aim of this paper is to update knowledge about voting patterns and electoral behaviour in Hungary and Slovakia based on data from the last elections in 2018 and 2020. Political studies of electoral behaviour across Central and Eastern Europe with new democracies established shortly after fall of authoritarian regimes have found several findings, unique for this area. One of them is a specific type of electoral volatility, typical for political systems which follow longer periods of authoritarian regime. This electoral volatility correlates with high party system instability with new parties emerging every electoral term and old political parties vanishing from political competition. While political scientists studied relationship between electoral volatility and increasing number of political parties, party switching presents considerable threat to stability of party system in CEE. Therefore, this paper studies socioeconomic, demographic, and value factors that determine a specific type of electoral behaviour. This study shows that certain voters’ characteristics increase the likelihood of voters’ behaviour and confirms their relevance in eradicating electoral volatility. The results of this article prove that while voters’ volatility is “natural” for Hungary and Slovakia, age, and education correlate with specific types of behaviour. Additionally, the main reason for abstaining from voting is minimal trust towards democratic principles.

Foreign Policy Orientation and Electoral Behavior: Analyzing Opinion Polls in Belarus, Georgia, and Kazakhstan

In the post-pandemic years of 2021–2022, the post-Soviet space has entered a stage of decisive transformation, which will test the maturity of the state institutions formed 30 years ago for the region’s countries. The study captures a snapshot of public sentiment in these countries on the eve of this wave of transformation it is based on a series of largescale opinion polls in Belarus, Georgia and Kazakhstan, conducted immediately after the last elections to the lower houses of the parliaments of these countries in the pre-crisis era. The main research question of the sociological study was to identify demographic and geographical patterns in determining the attitude of voters toward the prospects for relations with Russia. Countries with traditionally different strategies of relations with Russia were taken: Belarus is a strategic ally, Kazakhstan is friendly but pursues a multi-vector policy, and Georgia is generally hostile at the level of the political class. The analysis showed that in matters of orientation towards positive relations with Russia, the voters of these countries nevertheless had more in common than differences. Based on the analysis results, several lines of delimitation can be distinguished. Firstly, the “macro-regional, geopolitical” line runs between Belarus and Kazakhstan, on the one hand, and Georgia, on the other. The second split along the “center-periphery” line takes place within states, i.e., Such a demarcation was singled out by many researchers, singled out concerning Russia; however, we found the same demarcations in Belarus (“Minsk and the rest of the country”) partly in Georgia and Kazakhstan. Finally, the authors admit to it the possibility of delimitation along the north-south lines: in Georgia and, to some extent, in Kazakhstan, as a result of territorial differentiation in the residence of Russians in the northern regions of the republic, where sympathy for Russia is more clearly manifested than in the southern regions remote from it; and this demarcation is less pronounced in Belarus, where it refers to the regions bordering Russia and Ukraine.

Integration of survey data and digital footprints: an overview of the main methodological approaches

The main purpose of current study is to review the main existing methodological approaches to the integration of survey data and digital traces that are used in sociological research. The paper examines key arguments in the current methodological discussion about the place of big digital data in contemporary social science research. The authors make an attempt to scrutinize the practice of integrating survey data and digital traces through the concept of “reactive – nonreactive” measurement. The possible functions of digital traces in the design of the study are indicated (on the example of social media data). On the example of three research areas (the study of media consumption, media effects and electoral behavior) general methodological principles for integrating data of different nature are demonstrated and possible prospects for the development of these approaches is described. The article discusses a wide range of methodological issues: problems of the data linking validity; potential threats to the validity of digital traces; opportunities to improve survey questionnaire, to enrich data, to search for new valid indicators of socio-political processes and to provide cross-validation of research results. The current practices of integrating administrative data are considered as well.

The Enduring Effect of Immigration Attitudes on Vote Choice

Abstract Immigration attitudes have long been critical in predicting electoral behavior in Western Europe. Whether such attitudes will continue to motivate political behavior in the current pandemic environment is yet to be seen. This article addresses this topic by exploring immigration's prevalence and impact on Germany's 2021 Bundestag election. Combining evidence across multiple German election surveys, I find that immigration remains consequential in shaping political behavior throughout the country. In spite of immigration's reduced political salience, voters continued to view immigration as one of the most important political problems facing Germany. Moreover, immigration-minded voters were significantly more likely to support the Alternative for Germany on the far right and punish the Greens on the left. The article concludes that reducing immigration's salience will not necessarily change its influence over modern German elections.

Uma revolução silenciosa: França, 2017-2022

This article shows a profound change in French electoral behaviour, revealed in 2017 and confirmed in 2022. This change can be better explained by structural drivers that replaced traditional left-right cleavages by new cultural and social cleavages, also experienced in other liberal democracies. The consolidation of these new cleavages brings new opportunities to liberal centrist movements but poses serious threats to the traditional social-democratic left in its relation to the working classes. Additionally, this is a favourable political battleground for the far-right electoral growth.

The Political Legacy of Forced Migration: Evidence from Post-WWII Germany

Do refugees reshape long-term political behavior in receiving areas? I argue that forced migration can foster a strong group identity among refugees, which can mobilize them toward political parties that champion their identity-based grievances. To test this argument, I examine how one of the largest forced migrations in modern history, the expulsion of ethnic Germans from Eastern Europe into Germany after WWII, shaped their electoral behavior over time. Using an original database of district-level data from 32 elections spanning a century, I find that communities which received greater shares of expellees remain more supportive of the expellees’ political champions—the radical right—over time. This relationship is particularly manifested when identity-based grievances are unresolved and politically salient. Mechanism evidence, including novel data on expellee monuments and associations, suggests that a durable expellee identity helps account for these results. My analysis reveals an enduring behavioral legacy resulting from forced migration.

Using free-listing technique to develop measures of group consensus: the case of language choice in Ukraine

Free-listing is a useful qualitative technique suitable for exploring how groups of individuals think about a cultural domain and define its focal features. This tool is also well-adapted for identifying shared collective priorities which makes free-listing a helpful tool for ethnographers and students of culture who are often lacking this important information at the beginning of the project or have no fast way of acquiring it by other ethnographic means. One of its advantages includes its ability to elicit emic categories in the data at the early stages of fieldwork, thus securing the data quality in addition to its richness. The present study (N = 1253) conducted in January 2021 is part of a larger project merging cultural characteristics and electoral behavior. The data fragment presented in the paper showcases the utility of a free-listing technique for studying consensual beliefs relevant to language-based cultural identity in a sample of Ukrainian- and Russian-speaking Ukrainians. The study this data was collected for explores whether the territorial cleavage in electoral behavior and language divide as a part of it (Russian vs. Ukrainian) in Ukraine signal consistent differences in underlying shared collective beliefs about success and prestige. The preliminary analysis of free-listed items and emerging categories suggests that there are no substantial differences between the language-based groups regarding the beliefs about success and prestige that lie outside the territorial cleavage whereas substantial differences were identified within cleavage-related categories.

Hubungan Pengetahuan Lingkungan Hidup dengan Perilaku Pemilihan Plastik Biodegradable pada Mahasiswa Biologi Universitas Negeri Jakarta

The use of plastics which tend to increase in turn can have a negative impact on the environment. Students as young people are required to overcome these problems. One solution is to implement the electoral behavior of biodegradable plastic. To election of biodegradable plastic, students needed environmental knowledge. This study aimed to determine the association between environmental knowledge with electoral behavior of biodegradable plastic students of Biology UNJ. This research was conducted at the Biology Education Studies Program and Biological Studies Program UNJ in November-December 2016. The research used descriptive method through correlational study. Sampling by technique sampling was done through simple random sampling technique with 79 students of Biology branch of 2014. Data showed in normal distribution and homogeneous. The regression model obtained was Y= 88,124 + 0,223X. The correlation coefficient obtained was 0.223, which means there is a positive corelation between environmental knowledge and electoral behavior of biodegradable plastic in students of Biology UNJ. This research can provide guidance the students to use biodegradable plastics and protect the environment from the ravages of conventional plastics.

Place and Policy Preferences – Spatial Divides in Attitudes towards Social Policies in Germany

AbstractThe rise of the knowledge economy has led to a bifurcation between prosperous, often urban, areas and “left‐behind” regions. While the literature has started to analyse the political implications of these developments for electoral behaviour and socio‐cultural attitudes, the structuring of social policy preferences by place remains unclear. Distinguishing between an economic (booming‐declining) and a geographic (urban–rural) dimension, I argue that differences in material self‐interest and ideological predispositions explain spatial divides in support for different types of social policies. Combining original survey data on voters' preferences with municipal‐level data in Germany, I show that general support for social policy is higher in declining than in booming regions. However, social investments (e.g., active labour market policies) are preferred over consumption policies (e.g., unemployment benefits) in booming and, to a smaller degree, in urban than in declining and rural regions. These findings contribute to a bigger discussion on compensating “left‐behind” regions.

Electoral Reforms in Russia’s Regions: An Equilibrium between Disproportionality and Legitimacy

Abstract This study examines the dynamics of electoral reforms in the constituent entities of the Russian Federation and their influence on the disproportionality of parliamentary representation since the electoral system experienced major changes in 2003. We suggest that some characteristics of the electoral system may be highly instrumental in ensuring and maintaining United Russia’s influence in legislative bodies. This makes it possible to classify them as forms of institutional manipulation typical of electoral authoritarianism. Based on the statistical description and regression analysis, the study demonstrates the impact of some elements of electoral reforms on disproportionality during the periods at issue. At the same time, we can identify the methods of cementing the dominant party’s hold on power that the authorities find the most effective. In this regard, we make the conclusion that certain elements of the electoral system function as a balanced mechanism, which is evidenced by how they have been used during the different periods. Additionally, the study analyses the impact of disproportionality on electoral behavior, with the hypothesis about its negative influence on the electoral turnout being supported. Yet we regard the lower turnout as a consequence of the voting behavior of both the opposition’s supporters and loyalists. Finally, the electoral reforms in Russia seem to have put limits on disproportionality of parliamentary representation due to the issue of legitimacy.