Electoral Authoritarianism Research Articles

The conflict within: the politics of parliamentary election management in Iran

ABSTRACT Scholars of comparative politics have long been interested in understanding conflicts that arise among elites within authoritarian contexts. Such conflicts are particularly puzzling when they occur in the context of authoritarian elections and within state administrative institutions like the electoral management body (EMB). Using previously unanalysed primary sources provided by Iran’s Ministry of Interior, which document the inner workings of Iran’s 2000 parliamentary election management, this study investigates intra-elite conflict associated with this important election. I found that within the dual EMB structure, where elected and unelected members coexist, elected administrative members can access information on irregular activities by unelected members more than those outside of this body. These information resources encourage elected members to take the risk of accusing more powerful elites – the unelected members of the regime – of electoral fraud. This is particularly evident during the reformist (moderate opposition) Presidency. My findings suggest the importance of examining intra-elite conflict within administrative institutions – EMBs – for a better understanding of political contestation within otherwise opaque authoritarian regimes.

When you come at the king: Opposition coalitions and nearly stunning elections

AbstractOpposition coalitions under electoral authoritarianism have been associated with greater likelihood of opposition victory and democratization. I argue, however, that coalitions also entail significant downside risks with implications for longer term prospects for democracy. Where coalitions produce strong electoral outcomes but fail to force turnovers, regimes are left with both the incentive and capacity to repress and reconsolidate power. I show cross‐nationally that opposition coalitions are associated with stronger opposition performance overall, but that when oppositions fail to take power, exceptionally strong performance is associated with greater autocratization in the subsequent years, including increased repression and poorer electoral quality in future contests. Probing the case of Cambodia, I demonstrate how the very features that make opposition coalitions a useful tool in strengthening performance also invite new threats from regimes. I argue that this makes coalition formation a particularly risky proposition.

Brilliant tragedy? Electoral effects of environmental protest cycle in autocracy

ABSTRACT When and how does an environmental protest cycle affect election outcomes under electoral authoritarianism? Drawing on the case of the Bashkortostan republic, a Russian ethnic region, I leverage the spatial proximity to the protest site to identify its effects on parliamentary elections. The environmental protest cycle peaked in Bashkortostan around the regional government’s decisions to extract minerals from shikhans – mountains composed of limestone. Employing a difference-in-differences (DiD) design, I show that precincts exposed to the environmental protest cycle experienced a significant drop in United Russia vote share, while voting for systemic opposition increased in the affected precincts. To explain the dynamics, I propose treating non-political protests, such as environmental ones, as an information revelation mechanism. The mechanism identified through a causal mediation analysis indicates that the environmental protest cycle conveys information on regional malperformance to voters. Their updated preferences, in turn, heavily undermine the electoral mobilizing capacity of local elites.

From Cooptation to Violence: Managing Competitive Authoritarian Elections

From Cooptation to Violence: Managing Competitive Authoritarian Elections

Fading freedoms: democratic decline in Albania

ABSTRACT This study examines the trajectory of Albania's democracy. Despite initial relative progress in establishing a democratic route, last decade's political developments suggest a nuanced regression. They reveal a concerning shift towards electoral authoritarianism. This research uses mixed methods to analyse key democratic indicators from 2006 to 2022. It covers electoral democracy, freedom of expression, judicial independence, and deliberative democracy. Results indicate a significant decline in the level of democracy. This trend is evidenced by the increase in vote-buying and a decrease in electoral fairness. The freedom of expression and association have also diminished, with media and civil society experiencing increased constraints. Although the judicial system shows signs of stability, its effectiveness in counterbalancing political power should increase. This analysis underscores a gradual yet discernible shift in Albania’s political landscape, highlighting the risk of solidifying authoritarian structures under the guise of democratic governance.

Assessing the Political Clout of Thailand’s “Monarchized” Military in 2023

Abstract Since 1980, Thailand’s monarchy and military have enjoyed a partnership of power with the latter as a junior affiliate — a highly “monarchized military.” However, after 1992, direct military influence across the country diminished, and after the 2006 and 2014 coups, the military regained enormous clout. The country’s post-2019 facade democracy represents the continuation of a tutelary regime involving palace-endorsed military intervention in politics and apparent electoral governance. However, the armed forces-influenced government faces growing domestic challenges. This study examines Thailand’s military in late 2023. 2023 was profoundly significant because a new civilian government entered office that year, which might challenge monarchy-military primacy. The study chiefly asks: To what extent has the monarchy-military partnership clothed itself under the appearance of democracy (while indirectly interfering in it) to sustain its power, and what are the principal challenges this partnership faces? The study finds that in late 2023, Thailand remained a façade democracy, characterized by electoral authoritarianism and lorded over by monarchy and military — a situation the two institutions preferred to maintain.

Electoral institutions and repression in dictatorships

We argue that the relationship between authoritarian elections and repression depends on the electoral system in use. Proportional representation (PR) systems co-opt more heterogeneous political groups to contest and receive seats in the legislature and thus, dictators are less likely to use broad-based repression. Under plurality rules, by contrast, the regime has more incentives to mobilize turnout and deter collective action. Examining electoral systems from 1990 to 2010, we find that elections only reduce broad-based repression under PR systems, which are less commonly used in non-democracies. Our results highlight the importance of formal institutions in shaping political outcomes even in dictatorships.

Religion and authoritarianism in the Maldives: Is another authoritarian reversal in the Maldives imminent?

AbstractThe Maldives commenced its transition to democracy after its first multiparty elections in 2008. This was challenging due to the Maldives being a Muslim nation, its authoritarian legacy of monarchical rule before independence, and by dictatorship after independence. This article analyzes the postindependence rule periods of Ibrahim Nasir and Maumoom Abdul Gayoom, which were akin to one‐man dictatorships. The third autocratic president postindependence, Abdulla Yameen, was an electoral authoritarian as he implemented authoritarian measures in a multi‐party context. I assess if religion provided political legitimacy to these authoritarian leaders or if religion was exploited by leaders to gain political support and civic spaces. Theories of authoritarianism, religious populism, electoral authoritarianism, as well as concepts of the ulema‐state alliance and the rentier state are utilized. In addition to their authoritarian legacy, democratic presidents like Mohamed Nasheed and Mohamed Solih had grappled with politicians' manipulation of religion through political Islam, Islamic nationalism, and fundamentalism to derail democracy by equating it to Westernization. These events resonate with Samuel Huntington's description of the conflict between the West and Islam as a clash of civilizations. Crimes against liberal thinkers by Islamic extremists are an added challenge. There is a real danger of another authoritarian reversal in the Maldives.

Смешанная несвязанная избирательная система — оптимальный выбор при авторитаризме? (Кросснациональное сравнительное исследование)

Over the past 30 years, the mixed parallel electoral system has become one of the popular types of electoral systems used in elections to national legislatures. Curiously, it received the highest popularity in authoritarian regimes. The article attempts to identify internal political factors that contribute to the introduction of mixed parallel electoral systems under the conditions of electoral authoritarianism. To perform this task, the author uses the binary logistic regression method. In this study, the author makes an assumption that when implementing electoral reform under authoritarianism, the ruling elite is largely guided by the desire to maintain and strengthen its power. The study shows that the mixed parallel electoral system is most likely to be introduced during the period of regime transformation. At the initial stage of the consolidation of an authoritarian regime that allows multi-party competition, the ruling elite faces the challenge of institutionalizing electoral uncertainty. The effectiveness and durability of the political regime depends on how the risks associated with elections are neutralized. The mechanical combination of majoritarian and proportional representation principles opens up an opportunity to utilize the advantages of each of the electoral formulas conditional on the political situation, allowing the existing authorities to gain control over the sweeping majority of seats in parliament even when electoral competition is increasing and the support for the dominant party is falling. According to the author’s conclusion, the use of the mixed parallel system plays an important role in the consolidation of an authoritarian regime. Due to the mechanisms inherent in this system, the ruling elite can efficiently manipulate elections, ensuring the survival and stability of the authoritarian order.

Continuities and changes in electoral authoritarianism: evidence from Ethiopia

ABSTRACT This article analyzes how autocratic parties sustain and adjust electoral manipulative tactics to maintain electoral dominance in multi-level elections. It examines continuities and changes in electoral authoritarianism in Ethiopia by comparing elections held under the EPRDF and Prosperity Party (PP). The 2021 elections, marred by the detention of main opposition leaders, war and opposition boycotts, resulted in a dominant victory for the incumbent (PP), showing continuity of electoral dominance. Analysis of election data since 1995 shows that elections under PP were more competitive than the last two elections under the EPRDF in terms of opposition votes and seat share. Further, the analysis indicates regional asymmetry in electoral competition and opposition success, which is explained by asymmetric authoritarianism, ethnonationalism, and regional political dynamics. Despite this, the incumbent garnered public support through targeted rhetoric, addressing regional demands, and reframing historical narratives. These dynamics have implications for Ethiopia’s future and state-society relations. Insights from Ethiopia have implications for multi-ethnic federations facing challenges of democratization while highlighting the empirical need for a nuanced understanding of region-specific contexts to understand democratization challenges in ethnically diverse states.

DIVERGENT OUTCOMES FOR DEMOCRACY FROM RECENT ELECTIONS IN FIJI AND THE MALDIVES: ANALYSING THE 2018 ELECTIONS AND ITS AFTERMATH

This paper examines the historical background and conduct of recent elections in two small island nations in Asia-Pacific, Fiji and the Maldives. It assesses the situation of democracy prior to elections, and afterwards in 2020–2021. This paper seeks to contribute towards filling the gap in literature, with regards to comparative case studies on electoral authoritarianism in small island states. The two nations with dissimilar history, religion, ethnicity and geology, held national elections in 2018. Fiji comprising volcanic and limestone islands with a multiethnic and multi-religious population is located in the Pacific Ocean. The Maldives with lowest lying coral atolls, and a homogeneous population of one ethnicity and one religion Islam, is located in the Indian Ocean. The elections were conducted under differing circumstances of electoral authoritarian rule in the aftermath of multiparty elections, with repression in the Maldives increasing, and repression in Fiji easing. But the 2018 election results saw a return to transition to democracy in the Maldives. Conversely in Fiji, the electoral authoritarian government was re-elected. Challenges to democracy remained unchanged in both nations during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Quality of elections in Italy: a promising research field. Special issue introduction

Elections have become a common practice worldwide. This is partly a consequence of the spread of democracy beyond Western regions, a process that began in the second wave of democratization and has continued since the 1970s, when a third wave commenced. Additionally, it is due to the emergence of political systems that blend electoral procedures with a flawed application of the rule of law. As a result of the increasing importance of these so-called hybrid regimes, labels such as ‘illiberal democracy’ and ‘electoral authoritarianism’ are widely used – albeit somewhat criticized – in the field of comparative politics.While different types of political systems utilize elections, their function is not the same everywhere. Only in liberal democracies are elections a means of selecting rulers. However, even in those cases where effective competition exists, flaws may affect the electoral procedures. This explains why the quality of elections concept has gained significant relevance in recent research. But what exactly does ‘quality of elections’ mean?

Partisan Effects of Information Campaigns in Competitive Authoritarian Elections: Evidence from Bangladesh

Abstract To study the effects of non-partisan information and get-out-the-vote campaigns on the partisan composition of the voting population in competitive authoritarian elections, we conducted a large-scale field experiment prior to the 2018 Bangladeshi general election. Our two treatments highlight that high turnout increases the winning party’s legitimacy and that election outcomes matter for policy outcomes. Both treatments increase turnout (measured by ink marks) in government strongholds, but decrease turnout in opposition strongholds. We explain the withdrawal of treated opposition supporters and conclude that non-partisan information and get-out-the-vote campaigns can further tilt the uneven playing field in competitive authoritarian elections.

Substituting the Opposition under Electoral Authoritarianism: The Case of the Russian Regional Parliamentary Elections in 2021

Abstract Political scientists have long known that modern electoral autocracies can use quasi-democratic institutions to neutralize the danger posed by the opposition. Participation in elections by completely controlled spoiler parties proved to be an effective tool for maintaining authoritarian stability. However, researchers know few cases of how aging authoritarian regimes create systemic semi-independent opposition in order to increase turnout and split the votes of the systemic opposition. Based on a database of candidates from single-member districts (SMD) in the 2021 regional parliamentary elections in Russia with more than 2,200 unique observations, we show how the participation of candidates from the newly created New People, Green Alternative, and the Russian Party of Freedom and Justice affected the electoral results of United Russia and two parties of the ‘old’ systemic opposition.

The place of Russia’s political regime (2003–2023) on a conceptual map of the world’s autocracies

This study places Russia’s political regime into a comparative perspective by developing a conceptual framework that classifies authoritarian regimes along two dimensions, those of regime-specific institutionalization and electoral institutionalization. The resulting conceptual map places Russia’s political regime of 2003–2023 into the category of regimes that, while including an electoral component, score relatively low on the dimension of regime-specific institutionalization. At the same time, the conceptual map allows for tracing the regime’s evolution along the two dimensions. The analysis reveals that over time, the regime has undergone a staged transformation from electoral authoritarianism with relatively strong, albeit mostly informal, constraints on the exercise of executive power to a full-fledged personalist dictatorship. This process was finalized after the 2020 constitutional amendments, and became manifest in Putin’s decision to invade Ukraine in 2022.

Activist Origins of Political Ambition: Opposition Candidacy in Africa’s Electoral Authoritarian Regimes. By Keith Weghorst. New York: Cambridge University Press, 2022. 300p. $120.00 cloth.

Activist Origins of Political Ambition: Opposition Candidacy in Africa’s Electoral Authoritarian Regimes. By Keith Weghorst. New York: Cambridge University Press, 2022. 300p. $120.00 cloth.

Pulling through elections by pulling the plug: Internet disruptions and electoral violence in Uganda

Does increasing Internet access and use challenge authoritarian elections? I argue that Internet access provides both opposition supporters and government authorities with new means to shape electoral conduct. Opposition supporters can use the Internet to report on electoral malpractice and mobilize for support. At the same time government authorities can use the Internet to monitor antiregime sentiment prior to the elections and disrupt Internet access to selectively repress regime opponents during the elections. Studying Uganda’s 2016 presidential elections, evidence from election monitoring and survey data suggests that electoral violence is significantly higher in opposition strongholds with greater Internet access prior to the Internet disruption and is targeted specifically at voters. Insights from qualitative interviews with politicians, journalists and activists underline that the disruption of Internet access indeed hindered opposition supporters to effectively challenge electoral malpractice. Overall, the results stress the important role that Internet access can play for opposition actors in authoritarian elections. At the same time, they highlight their susceptibility to manipulation by government authorities.

Relevance and electoralism in the study of political oppositions: the case of Morocco’s radical left

ABSTRACT Relevance is a key concept in the study of political parties. This article argues that the conceptions of relevance used in the study of political oppositions in authoritarian settings need to be clarified and reformulated. More specifically, and in light of current knowledge on electoral authoritarianism, the notion of relevance must go beyond the electoralist conceptions traditionally used when studying democratic contexts. Drawing on the case of Morocco, the article highlights the obscuring effect that such conceptions can have. It then provides an alternative framework, adjusting the concept of relevance to the specificities of the context and the evolving nature of the actors operating within it. The case of al-Nahj al-Dīmoqratī, a Moroccan radical-leftist opposition party, is used to illustrate the analytical power of the framework.

Activist Origins of Political Ambition: Opposition Candidacy in Africa’s Electoral Authoritarian Regimes by Keith Weghorst

Journal Article Activist Origins of Political Ambition: Opposition Candidacy in Africa’s Electoral Authoritarian Regimes by Keith Weghorst Get access Keith Weghorst. New York, Cambridge University Press. 2022. 371 pp. $120. Rachael McLellan Rachael McLellan University of Glasgow Search for other works by this author on: Oxford Academic Google Scholar Political Science Quarterly, qqad046, https://doi.org/10.1093/psquar/qqad046 Published: 18 June 2023

Myanmar’s Menu of Electoral Manipulation: Self- and External Legitimation after the 2021 Coup

ABSTRACT One decade after Myanmar’s military regime organized non-competitive elections that unexpectedly commenced a period of political reforms, the military leadership upended this transitional period with a coup based on a narrative of electoral fraud. Cancelling the November 2020 election results which had confirmed the voters’ preferences for civilian rule, the military has begun organizing fresh elections while concurrently leading a war against the population. Building on Schedler (2002) and the debate on authoritarian elections, this article analyses the military’s contemporary menu of electoral manipulation as a comprehensive set of intertwined strategies. It integrates the analysis of various technical elements of the authoritarian electoral process that are often only looked at in isolation. The article deconstructs the military’s election-related narratives as self-legitimation in a region where authoritarian elections are the norm. Despite considerable efforts to forge conditions in their favor and create an aura of legitimacy, however, Myanmar’s military does not appear very imaginative in this undertaking, but employs a retrograde toolbox in a brutal manner. Whether this strategy is successful will not depend on the authoritarian leaders’ skills alone, but also on recognition from domestic, regional and international audiences which the junta’s performance seeks to achieve.