Elections Of February Research Articles

Industrialists and the Rise of Perón, 1943-1946: Some implications for the Conceptualization of Populism

Support by a segment of industrialists for Juan Perón has been a crucial feature of much writing about Peronism. This has been sustained by such diverse authors as Torcuato Di Tella, Miguel Murmis and Juan Carlos Portantiero, and Guillermo O'Donnell. Moreover, in many discussions of the nature of populism—in which Peronism is considered an epitome of the phenomenon—a critical role is played by a multiclass alliance which included both workers and industrialists. Yet in 1945 industrialists as a group did not support Perón. The year 1945 is critical to any discussion of the nature of Peronism because it was then that Perón built his core constituency. In addition, there occurred what can only be considered the founding myth of Peronism—the massive workers' demonstration of October 17. Later Perón was able to expand his support, but his base was created in 1945. In order to better understand both the development of Perón's support and then to reflect on what this tells us about the nature of populism, the relationship between Perón and industrialists will be explored from the military's seizure of power in June 1943 to the presidential elections in February 1946. During this period—although Perón was rapidly gathering power—he was not formally head of the government.

Public Opinion and the Anglo-Irish Agreement

This article brings together a number of opinion surveys conducted in Great Britain, Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland in the aftermath of the signing of the Anglo-Irish Agreement at Hillsborough on 15 November 1985. In addition the fifteen by-elections of 23 January 1986 in Northern Ireland are treated as the referendum they were claimed to be by Unionists, and a brief assessment is given of the role played by the Agreement in the Irish Republic's general election of February 1987.

Little Change in Rural Burma: A Case Study of a Burmese Village (1960-80)

Since 1960, rural Burma has borne witness to three consecutive governments which came up with their respective rural development programmes. The clean AFPFL (U Nu's faction of the Anti-Fascist People's Freedom League), after overwhelming victory in the third national election in February 1960, took over from the caretaker government which ruled Burma from 1958 to 1960. Then, in March 1962, the Revolutionary Council overthrew the constitutional government. The rule of the Revolutionary Council government lasted until 1974 when a new constitutional government was installed. Although all of these three governments formulated their own rural development programmes, they had one common goal, that is, to transform rural Burma into a modern and prosperous socialist society. This study describes and analyses the changes which have occurred in rural Burma within this larger political setting. This is a longitudinal study of a Burmese village, Mayin, situated in lower Burma. It attempts to trace the extent to which social and economic changes have taken place in the village over two decades,

Breaking the Mould?: The Irish General Election of February 1987

Breaking the Mould?: The Irish General Election of February 1987

The Irish election of November 1982

On 24 November 1982 the Irish electorate went to the polls for the second time in a year and the third time in eighteen months.* The election marked another stage in a period of governmental instability not previously experienced in Ireland. The election of June 1982 had produced a minority coalition government of Fine Gael and Labour requiring the support of independent deputies to remain in office. The first election of February 1982 resulted in a minority Fianna Fail government with the same problem. This most recent election of November 1982 gave no party an overall majority but opened the way for another coalition government of Fine Gael and Labour which would command a majority in the Dail and be virtually assured of serving a full term in government. The focal points of the campaign were virtually the same as those of the previous two elections: the economic policies required to restore national finances and the credibility of the alternative party leaders. The two issues were closely linked.

Zimbabwe: The Next Round

Marxists and other progressives have quite correctly celebrated the success of the Zimbabwe African National Union (ZANU) in the Zimbabwe elections of February 27-29 of this year as a triumph of heroic proportions. Whatever the difficulties which may now confront the Zimbabwean revolutionary process the fact remains that in those three days well over 80 percent of the adult African population of Zimbabwe (those who voted for ZANU and the other wing of the Patriotic Front [PF], the Zimbabwe African People's Union [ZAPU] stood up, quite literally, to be counted in the final act of wresting their freedom from settler political domination. And they did this in spite of attempts to blunt any such statement, attempts made by British officialdom (through the terms imposed during the Lancaster Home agreement and through the activities of Lord Soames and his team on the ground), by the structures, very much intact, of the Rhodesian settler state itself, and by Bishop Muzorewa and his cronies (including his huge private army, albeit one well subsumed within the white military hierarchy, of "auxiliaries" and such backers as South Africa and a wide array of international economic concerns). Moreover, contrary to the claims of some unsympathetic journalists, the vote was for far more than merely ending the war. Most Zimbabweans sensed that the Patriotic Front, and particularly ZANU, also bore the promise of a new social order, one defined, however vaguely, in ways which would serve the interests of the broad mass of the impoverished black population and, in particular, the interests of the country's rural dwellers.This article can also be found at the Monthly Review website, where most recent articles are published in full.Click here to purchase a PDF version of this article at the Monthly Review website.

A Note on the Estimation of Voter Transition Probabilities

SUMMARY This paper utilizes the results of a panel survey, conducted after the General Elections of February and October 1974, to obtain the estimated voter transition probabilities for constituencies contested on each occasion by candidates representing the Conservative, Labour and Liberal parties. The panel estimates are compared with those derived by McCarthy and Ryan (1977) who used a quadratic programming method. Although the panel results underestimate the proportion of the electorate who did not vote, they provide clear evidence that the quadratic programming oversimplifies the pattern of voting change. The panel results also show clearly that the pattern of voting change between two elections is affected by the relative party strengths in the first election.

Britain at the Polls: The Parliamentary Election of February 1974. Edited by Howard R. Penniman. (Washington, D.C.: American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research, 1974. Pp. 183. $3.00, paper.)

Britain at the Polls: The Parliamentary Election of February 1974. Edited by Howard R. Penniman. (Washington, D.C.: American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research, 1974. Pp. 183. $3.00, paper.) - Volume 71 Issue 2

Britain at the Polls: The Parliamentary Election of February 1974. Edited by Howard R. Penniman. (Washington, D.C.: American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research, 1974. Pp. 183. $3.00, paper.)

Britain at the Polls: The Parliamentary Election of February 1974. Edited by Howard R. Penniman. (Washington, D.C.: American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research, 1974. Pp. 183. $3.00, paper.) - Volume 71 Issue 2

BRITAIN'S MEMBERSHIP OF THE EEC: A PROFILE OF ELECTORAL OPINIONS IN THE SPRING OF 1974 – WITH A POSTSCRIPT ON THE REFERENDUM*

ABSTRACTThe main part of this article was written well before the June 1975 referendum in Britain. As set out in the title, our objective was to draw a profile of electoral opinions during the months following the first of the two general elections in 1974. We furthermore attempted to discern and evaluate the factors that would be likely to determine the setting for the actual referendum. Rather than rewriting this analysis with the benefit of hindsight, we have chosen to present it here in a somewhat abridged form and with only minor changes in the text. The Postscript in this article contains an analysis of the referendum outcome in the light of our previous findings as well as more recent survey data.Our description of the public's views on the EEC in 1974 is mainly based on data drawn from a national survey conducted after the February 1974 election. For the analysis presented in the Postscript we are also able to draw on survey data collected after the October 1974 election as well as a survey carried out after the referendum. All of these surveys are part of a panel study.The picture that emerges from our data on the electorate in the spring of 1974 reflects a division of opinions that had changed dramatically in the past years and which could well change again. The shifts in the electorate's views on Britain's membership of the EEC that occurred during the 1960s and up to the election in February 1974 appear largely to reflect the various positions taken by major parties and, in particular, the policy of the government of the day. In the 1975 referendum, the Wilson Cabinet won a half‐way success in its attempt to swing the Labour vote in favour of the EEC against the views expressed by the Labour Party conference. Together with the massive support in the remaining part of the electorate, this was sufficient to secure a substantial majority for Britain's staying in the EEC.

The Political Alignment of the Centre Party in Wilhelmine Germany: A Study of the Party's Emergence in Nineteenth-Century Württemberg

Less than a month before Bismarck's dismissal as German chancellor, the Reichstag elections of February 1890 destroyed the parliamentary majority of the Kartell parties - National Liberals and Conservatives - with whose support he had governed. The number of Reichstag seats held by diese parties fell from 221 to 140, out of the total of 397; they never again achieved more than 169. To the multitude of problems left by Bismarck to his successors was therefore added one of parliamentary arithmetic: how was the chancellor to organize a Reichstag majority when the traditional governmental parties by themselves were no longer large enough, and the intransigently anti-governmental SPD was constantly increasing its representation? It was in this situation that the role of the Centre party in Wilhelmine politics became decisive, for between 1890 and 1914 the party possessed a quarter of the seats in the Reichstag, and thus held the balance of power between Left and Right.

Legislative Intervention in Thailand's Development Process: A Case Study

T hailand's national elections in February 1969, the country's first in eleven years, introduced a group of politicians dependent on electoral constituencies for their political support. During the 1,009 days of its existence before the military coup d'etat of 1971,' ithe House of Representatives showed a potential to help shape government policies and programs, surprising its critics by questioning executive decisions on issues of taxation, the national budget, foreign policy, and government organization. Many Members of Parliament (MPs) played important roles in determining the shape and direction of government projects in rural areas. This case study documents an instance of legislative intervention in the development process in one tambon of Northeast Thailand, one of a multitude of incidents which finally compelled the military elite to resume absolute control over the political process. Table I lists some terminology concerning the rural Thai government structure. In early 1968, a kamnan used his influence to convince a tambon development committee that a proposed tambon development center (TDC) ought to be located in his own village rather than in another village which had originally been slated to get it. Three days after the 1969 election, 248 villagers petitioned the Governor to shift the project back to its original location. They also called on their elected representative for assistance. During the subsequent 21 months, the MP worked alongside these villagers in support of their claim. Events surrounding the location of this development project cast doubt on some of the major principles of development administration and on methods of program implementation which have traditionally been espoused by the Thai government. The episode illustrates problems of village and tambon leadership in the development process and, more significantly, provides important evidence on the specifics of legislative-bureaucratic interaction during Thailand's most recent unsuccessful try at representative

India: The Dispersion of Political Power

India was beset by both economic and political crises during 1967, once again raising basic questions concerning national viability. Would a second straight year of drought coupled with increased federal tensions arising out of non-Congress governments at the state level fundamentally alter or destroy the political system? Has democracy been discredited to the extent where more authoritarian governmental measures would be acceptable and even desirable? These simplistic but fundamental questions were posed during 1967 but, interestingly enough, primarily by foreign observers.' As usual, developments in India were complex and are subject to pessimistic, optimistic and mixed interpretations. Fundamentally, any overview should be cognizant of India's staying power. Her resiliency is remarkable in the face of continued economic hardship and amidst the changing political context provided by the February elections. It is useful and perhaps essential to place the present and continuing political crisis in India within a time perspective. Political angularities may continue to be seen as sharp and biting, but the effects are possibly less profound and threatening to the system than sensational journalism would seem to indicate.

Costa Rican Electoral Trends, 1953-1966

about the shoulders of Jos' Joaquin Trejos Fernandez. Exchanging abrazos with his predecessor, whose own party had strongly opposed Trejos' candidacy, the new president joined a long line of democratically elected Costa Rican chief executives. Trejos' assumption of power underlined anew the fact that no Costa Rican administration since 1944 has been able to succeed itself in office. Without exception both the anti-government candidate and party has won. This is but one of many points of interest for the student of Latin American parties and elections. It is particularly significant that the February elections constituted that country's fourth consecutive regularized and legitimate national vote in the postwar period. Since the early 1950's, moreover, basic political forces, organizations, and to some degree even personalities have remained largely constant.1 Costa Rica therefore provides a virtually unequaled opportunity to examine electoral returns over a period of years in search of significant patterns of continuity and change.2 The presence of a single modern party and several largely personalistic rival organizations also lends interest to this case.

The Failure of U Nu and the Return of the Armed Forces in Burma

Unu, in 1947, became the Prime Minister of the Provisional Government of Burma. He retained that post after independence in 1948 and, except for seven months in 1956–1957, he had been the duly elected Prime Minister until he gave up office in September, 1958, after the serious split in the ruling party, the Anti-Fascist Peoples' Freedom League (AFPFL). From then until the third national elections of February, 1960, General Ne Win, Chief of the Burma Defense Forces, held the reins of what was called a “caretaker government”, in which he proceeded strictly according to the constitution adopted in 1947. U Nu's Party won an overwhelming victory at the polls in 1960 and once again, with almost 80 per cent parliamentary backing in the 250-man Chamber of Deputies, the more powerful chamber in the bicameral parliament, he set about to govern Burma. On March 2, 1962, General Ne Win staged a coup. He took over the government in the name of a military Revolutionary Council, arrested the previous cabinet members, and set aside Burma's constitution.

The 1962 Election in North Bombay

TOR INDIA the year i962 opened with jubilation tempered by doubts and ended with dismay tempered by determination. At the beginning of the year Indians were still rejoicing over the military occupation of Goa in December i96i, although strong criticisms of the Goa action in the United Kingdom and the United States soon produced sober second thoughts as well as an upsurge of indignation. In the closing weeks India was still trying to recover its political, military, and mental equilibrium after the Chinese attack, although the weaknesses so starkly revealed by the Chinese successes were at least partially offset by a new spirit of national unity and determination. The main political events of i962 in India were the third general elections in February and the Chinese offensive in late October and November. The former event was an impressive demonstration of India's democratic competence and achievement; the latter was an alarming demonstration of India's political and military and psychological unpreparedness and lack of realism. The Chinese attack tended to offset some of the trends which had been reinforced by the election results. It adversely affected the prestige and position of Prime Minister Nehru himself, just as the general elections had greatly enhanced his prestige and position. It wrecked-at least temporarily-the political career of V. K. Krishna Menon-a career which had received a tremendous boost by his overwhelming victory in North Bombay in the February elections. At the present time (mid-i963) the crisis with China overshadows all other aspects of Indian political life. While this crisis has apparently reversed some of the political trends that were manifest after the third general elections, and has presented a real challenge to India's capacity to survive as a democratic nation, it has by no means lessened the significance of the steady progress which India has been making, under formidable handicaps, in the direction of political and economic development, as illustrated by the third general elections and the Third Five-Year Plan. Just as India is determined to achieve security and economic development through planning, it is also determined to achieve security and political development along democratic lines. As a landmark in India's political development the

British By-elections, 1950

Since the hard-fought general election of February 23, 1950, the narrow margin of Labor's control of the British House of Commons has been tested at the polls on ten occasions. This number of by-elections to fill vacancies in the membership of the House is a normal post-World War II figure (the previous House saw fifty-two replacements in its four and one-half years of life), although it is somewhat under that of prewar averages. In terms of locale, however, these ten by-elections were atypical. Though the overall distribution within the various parts of the United Kingdom was not unrepresentative (six in England, one in Wales, actually Monmouthshire, two in Scotland, and one in Northern Ireland), all vacancies chanced to come in urban areas. Eight of the contests involved borough seats and the other two (West Dunbartonshire and Abertillery, Monmouthshire) were primarily urban in character.

The British Problem in Africa

THE Gold Coast elections of February 1951 have sent a shock right through Africa, or at least that Africa which lies south of the Sahara. To white men who have made their home in the African continent the shock has come as a perhaps only half-formulated question: Is this the beginning of the end for us? And every African who has heard the news?a number no one can exactly estimate?has felt a thrill of joy, and of the sudden, almost incredulous hope: Is this the beginning for us? There can be no doubt that the first assumption of ministerial office by elected Negroes in a British colonial territory makes 1951 an important date in the political history of Africa and a very proper date at which to take stock. For this event in the mid dle of the century means that Britain is committed in act as well as in word to the speedy promotion of self-government in her African colonies. It is just 50 years, from the occupation of the interior, since British rule over these territories began; and it is not a very bold speculation to believe that they may become fully self-governing nation-states by the end of the century. It almost seems as though future African writers of history books may thus be able very neatly to sum up the first half of the twentieth cen tury as the age of imperialism, and the second as the age of libera tion.