Election-related Violence Research Articles

Democratization and electoral violence in post-communism. A study of Montenegro

Taking as its starting point the existing theoretical debate on electoral violence, this paper analyses election-related violence in Montenegro in the country’s post-communist era. The objective is to gather data concerning violence tied to national elections for president and parliament, and to identify patterns present in the data. The role played by electoral violence in Montenegro during the period of democratization is subsequently evaluated. The analytical portion of the discussion, follows target shortcomings in the existing theoretical framework and puts forward tentative ways in which they might be addressed. Aggregated data concerning electoral violence in Montenegro are provided in simple matrix form, ready for further analysis.

The Potentialities of Early Warning Signals in Preventing Electoral Violence in Nigeria

Election-related violence is not a new phenomenon in Nigeria as it has origin in the history of electioneering in the country. Most incidences of electoral violence take place at various stages of the exercise - pre, during and post-elections. While some of these incidences are localized and restricted, there are other incidences of electoral violence that manifest large scale intensity and impact on communities outside the ordinary area of their occurrence. Incidentally, electoral violent conflicts in Nigeria from the Western Nigeria election crisis of 1965 to the 2011 post-election violence in some parts of northern Nigeria, one particular trend is noticeable, that is, they all gave clear indication of their occurrence. This is because conflicts do not occur in a vacuum, but they are reactions to social interactions that build up over period of time to snowball into concrete and substantial phenomenon. In fact, events do not happen in the society without early indicators or signs pointing to their likely consequences either of peace or violence. This paper examines electoral violence in Nigeria since return of democracy in Nigeria in 1999, the potentialities of an effective early warning system as a preventive response to election violent conflicts in Nigeria.

(How) Does Electoral Integrity Affect Turnout?

Does electoral integrity affect turnout? And if so, how? We look at some election dynamics that are closely related to electoral integrity – the actions of the government, the opposition and the context in which the election is held – and found significant impact of these dynamics on turnout. We tested our claims using data for 910 elections covering 91 democracies for the 1961-2008 period. Our results reveal that both boycott and election-related violence decrease turnout, the effect of the former being substantially higher. We also find that, contrary to what could be initially expected, governments’ harassing of the opposition actually increases turnout.

Financial Markets and Electoral Violence in Emerging Economies: Pakistan, May 2013

What types of information can financial markets reflect, or even predict, about nation-level political risk? This paper will analyze the differential responses of two markets to election-related violence during an important emerging-market election. The May 2013 general election in Pakistan amounts to a natural experiment in financial market reactions to important political events. The Karachi stock market will be used as a proxy for domestic observers of the election, and the US dollar market in Pakistan sovereign Eurobonds (three issues) will stand as a proxy for international observers. Financial theory holds that the prices of most traded assets immediately and efficiently incorporate all new relevant information. Market observers, analysts, traders and investors act en masse to efficiently reassess the risk profiles of traded assets when new information arises. They "vote" by buying or selling the securities. A recent literature in international political economy has sought to decompose the market price performance of the traded sovereign bonds of emerging market countries in order to gain insights on what these market movements might tell us about country risk. Elections have come in for particular scrutiny. This paper extends the inquiry to the domestic stock markets of the subject nation.

A national population-based assessment of 2007–2008 election-related violence in Kenya

BackgroundFollowing the contested national elections in 2007, violence occurred throughout Kenya. The objective of this study was to assess the prevalence, characteristics, and health consequences of the 2007–2008 election-related violence.MethodsA cross-sectional, national, population-based cluster survey of 956 Kenyan adults aged ≥ 18 years was conducted in Kenya in September 2011 utilizing a two-stage 90 x 10 cluster sample design and structured interviews and questionnaires. Prevalence of all forms of violence surrounding the 2007 election period, symptoms of major depressive disorder (MDD) and posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD), and morbidity related to sexual and physical violence were assessed.ResultsOf 956 households surveyed, 916 households participated (response rate 95.8%). Compared to pre-election, election-related sexual violence incidents/1000 persons/year increased over 60-fold (39.1-2370.1; p < .001) with a concurrent 37-fold increase in opportunistic sexual violence (5.2-183.1; p < .001). Physical and other human rights violations increased 80-fold (25.0-1987.1; p < .001) compared to pre-election. Overall, 50% of households reported at least one physical or sexual violation. Households reporting violence were more likely to report violence among female household members (66.6% vs. 58.1%; p = .04) or among the Luhya ethnic group (17.0% vs. 13.8%; p = 0.03). The most common perpetrators of election-related sexual violence were reported to be affiliated with government or political groups (1670.5 incidents/1000 persons per year); the Kalenjin ethnic group for physical violations (54.6%). Over thirty percent of respondents met MDD and PTSD symptom criteria; however, symptoms of MDD (females, 63.3%; males, 36.7%; p = .01) and suicidal ideation (females, 68.5%; males, 31.5%; p = .04) were more common among females. Substance abuse was more common among males (males, 71.2%; females, 28.8%; p < .001).ConclusionOn a national level in Kenya, politically-motivated and opportunistic sexual and physical violations were commonly reported among sampled adults with associated health and mental health outcomes.

Election-Related Violence and Security Challenges in Nigeria: Lessons from the Aftermath of the 2011 General Election

Election-Related Violence and Security Challenges in Nigeria: Lessons from the Aftermath of the 2011 General Election

The Role of Information and Communication Technology in Preventing Election-Related Violence in Kenya, 2013

Abstract Leading up to the Kenyan presidential elections of 2013, observers around the world were preoccupied by the potential for mass violence similar to that which erupted following the 2007 presidential election. Yet, the 2013 elections were largely unmarred by violence. A notable characteristic of the Kenyan 2013 elections was the use of information and communications technologies (ICT) in various public and private efforts to address the threat of violence related to the elections. In our exploration of how ICT contributed to the mitigation of election-related violence in the 2013 Kenyan elections, we find useful the models of violence as contagion and collective efficacy as essential for violence prevention.

All quiet on election day? International election observation and incentives for pre-election violence in African elections

This article argues that the increasing international interest in elections as exemplified by the rise of international election monitoring induces temporal shifts in the use of violent intimidation by political actors. The presence of international electoral missions lowers the potential for election-day violence relative to the pre-election period because domestic actors likely refrain from intimidating opposition candidates or voters before the eyes of international observers, but creates incentives for political actors to engage in violent manipulation in parts of the electoral process receiving considerably less international attention, such as the pre-election period. The article expects that international election observation increases the incidence of violent manipulation during electoral campaigns. An empirical analysis of election-related violence for African elections in the 1990–2009 period shows that the presence of election observers increases the incidence of pre-election violence, but has no effect on election-day violence.

Electing the ‘alliance of the accused’: the success of the Jubilee Alliance in Kenya's Rift Valley

Against a history of a divided Kalenjin/Kikuyu vote and election-related violence, and a contemporary context of high levels of inter-communal mistrust and intervention by the International Criminal Court (ICC), this article explains the Jubilee Alliance's success amongst Kalenjin and Kikuyu voters in the Rift Valley in the 2013 election. To do this, it examines the pre-election context, election results in Kalenjin- and Kikuyu-dominated areas, local political debates, and election campaigns to reveal how the ‘Uhuruto’ team persuaded local residents to support this seemingly unlikely political marriage in all six elections. It is argued that the alliance used existing and emergent communal narratives of justice and competition to recast socio-economic and political debates in a way that persuaded the majority of Kalenjin and Kikuyu to support Jubilee – and to vote against Raila Odinga and the Coalition for Reform and Democracy (CORD) – as a way to protect and further their individual and collective interests. In making this argument, particular attention is given to relations between community members, and to popular support and investment in peace; negotiations between Uhuru and Ruto, and Kalenjin ‘hosts’ and Kikuyu ‘guests’; the reinterpretation of the ICC as a performance of injustice; and successful presentation of ‘Uhuruto’ as a youthful team that could bring about peace and meaningful change as compared with an old, vengeful, incumbent Odinga Odinga.

When celebrity athletes are ‘social movement entrepreneurs’: A study of the role of elite runners in run-for-peace events in post-conflict Kenya in 2008

This paper reports findings from a study of the role played by high-profile Kenyan runners in the organization of Run-for-Peace events that took place in response to election-related violence in Kenya in late 2007 and early 2008. Acknowledging concerns expressed by some sociologists of sport about the role of celebrity athletes in the sport for development and peace movement, we suggest that in the particular contexts we studied, high-profile athletes played a crucial role in the organization of reconciliation events. Informed by interviews with former and current elite Kenyan runners and others involved in the organization of these events, we argue that the apparent effectiveness of the athletes in mobilizing resources, pursuing political opportunities and devising a collective action frame was possible because of the extant positioning of the athletes in the impacted communities, the active involvement in and personal investment of the athletes in the outcome of the peace-promoting activities, and the unique pre-Olympic moment in which the events took place. In doing so, we differentiate between celebrity athletes who are a ‘presence’ at sport for development and peace events, and those who might be considered ‘social movement entrepreneurs’. We conclude the paper by describing how strands of social movement theory were helpful in guiding our analysis of high-profile athletes and peace promotion, and with suggestions for future research pertaining to sport-related reconciliation movements.

The Maguindanao Massacre

No previous outbreak of election-related violence in the Philippines could compare to the events that took place in the province of Maguindanao on 23 November 2009, resulting in the death of fiftyseven (57) people. This paper assesses the tragic events dubbed as the “Maguindanao Massacre” by the Philippine press in terms of its repercussions on human security in Maguindanao province, using the seven categories of human security as defined under the 1994 Human Development Report of the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP). Future developments to this on-going saga need to be closely monitored and analyzed as part of the citizenry's responsibility to be vigilant, to ensure that any further threats to human security in the Philippines could be promptly addressed.

Electoral Violence Early Warning and Infrastructures for Peace

Outbreaks of election-related violence can be devastating, but experience has shown that they can be prevented. The need for improved efficiency of electoral violence early warning and prevention is increasingly argued. Good practices – developed nationally, regionally and globally – offer useful understanding of the phenomenon and of what can be done to improve prevention and mitigation. Although diverse and contingent on mandates and contexts in which organisations operate, early warning and prevention methodologies have common denominators that can be comparatively analysed. The establishment of national infrastructures for peace, which are also mandated to coordinate early warning, prevention and mitigation of electoral violence, helps to ensure that the impact of such efforts is maximised.

All Quiet on Election Day? International Election Observation and Incentives for Violent Manipulation in African Elections

This paper argues that the increasing international interest in elections as exemplified by the rise of international election monitoring induces temporal shifts in the use of violent intimidation by political actors. The presence of international electoral missions lowers the potential for election-day violence relative to the pre-election period because domestic actors likely refrain from intimidating opposition candidates or voters before the eyes of international observers, but creates incentives for political actors to engage in violent manipulation in parts of the electoral process receiving considerably less international attention, such as the pre-election period. The paper expects that international election observation increases the incidence of violent manipulation during electoral campaigns. An empirical analysis of election-related violence for African elections in the 1990-2009 period shows that the presence of election observers increases the incidence of pre-election violence, but has no effect on election-day violence.

Preventive Diplomacy Work in the Organization of American States (OAS): The 2006 Elections in Guyana

Abstract The South American country of Guyana has a history of turmoil and violence around its presidential elections. The 2006 elections, however, were cited as largely free of violence and post-election unrest. While the peaceful outcome may be attributed to a number of factors, the involvement of the Organization of American States in setting up an electoral observation mission and in engaging in preventive diplomacy played a constructive role in the process, in addition to other ongoing initiatives. This article examines the OAS’ use of its mandate for the preservation of democracy as an entry point for conflict prevention. In particular, it analyzes the role of election monitoring and the facilitation of dialogue as a form of preventive diplomacy. The article argues that the Guyana case provides an example of the OAS using its democracy promotion mandate to prevent conflict, specifically election-related violence. It also highlights some of the critiques of OAS work in the area of democracy promotion and election monitoring, noting that the organization has engaged in these activities only in selective cases that meet specific criteria.

Election-Related Violence: The Role of Dangerous Speech

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The Challenges of Responding to Extrajudicial Executions: Interview with Philip Alston

In our continuing series of reflections by human rights practitioners on their work, Philip Alston reflects here on his six-year term as UN Special Rapporteur on extrajudicial, summary or arbitrary executions, completed in July 2010. In the interview, Professor Alston addresses some of the methodological challenges faced by UN Special Procedures in their work – and in particular, highlights the need for greater context-specific analysis in reporting. He also speaks about some of the key themes that feature prominently in many of his country visit reports – including impunity, corruption, witness protection, police accountability, targeted killings, and election-related violence and killings.

Pattern of the postelection violence injuries of patients attended at the accident and emergency department of the Kenyatta National Hospital and the tools of violence employed

IntroductionThe results of the Kenyan Presidential elections held on 28th December, 2007 were disputed leading to a serious outbreak of violence in various parts of the country. Over 1000 people...

Attracting and retaining health workers in rural areas: investigating nurses’ views on rural posts and policy interventions

BackgroundKenya has bold plans for scaling up priority interventions nationwide, but faces major human resource challenges, with a lack of skilled workers especially in the most disadvantaged rural areas.MethodsWe investigated reasons for poor recruitment and retention in rural areas and potential policy interventions through quantitative and qualitative data collection with nursing trainees. We interviewed 345 trainees from four purposively selected Medical Training Colleges (MTCs) (166 pre-service and 179 upgrading trainees with prior work experience). Each interviewee completed a self-administered questionnaire including likert scale responses to statements about rural areas and interventions, and focus group discussions (FGDs) were conducted at each MTC.ResultsLikert scale responses indicated mixed perceptions of both living and working in rural areas, with a range of positive, negative and indifferent views expressed on average across different statements. The analysis showed that attitudes to working in rural areas were significantly positively affected by being older, but negatively affected by being an upgrading student. Attitudes to living in rural areas were significantly positively affected by being a student at the MTC furthest from Nairobi.During FGDs trainees raised both positive and negative aspects of rural life. Positive aspects included lower costs of living and more autonomy at work. Negative issues included poor infrastructure, inadequate education facilities and opportunities, higher workloads, and inadequate supplies and supervision. Particular concern was expressed about working in communities dominated by other tribes, reflecting Kenya’s recent election-related violence.Quantitative and qualitative data indicated that students believed several strategies could improve rural recruitment and retention, with particular emphasis on substantial rural allowances and the ability to choose their rural location. Other interventions highlighted included provision of decent housing, and more rapid career advancement. However, recently introduced short term contracts in named locations were not favoured due to their lack of pension plans and job security.ConclusionsThis study identified a range of potential interventions to increase rural recruitment and retention, with those most favored by nursing students being additional rural allowances, and allowing choice of rural location. Greater investment is needed in information systems to evaluate the impact of such policies.

The Role of Civil Society in Elections: The KwaZulu-Natal Democracy and Elections Forum – Reducing Conflict Dynamics and Promoting Peace

The role of civil society in elections often takes the form of support for the institutional processes of a democratic election as well as the more substantive development of a democratic electorate. Civil society does, however, have a role to play in reducing election-related conflict dynamics and promoting a peaceful electoral environment. This paper examines the role of the KwaZulu-Natal Democracy and Elections Forum (KZNDEF) in elections in KwaZulu-Natal. The paper examines the role played by the KZNDEF's five subcommittees in and their impact on the deepening of democracy, the reduction of conflict dynamics and the promotion of peace in KwaZulu-Natal, a province plagued with election-related violence.