The Potentialities of Early Warning Signals in Preventing Electoral Violence in Nigeria

Abstract

Election-related violence is not a new phenomenon in Nigeria as it has origin in the history of electioneering in the country. Most incidences of electoral violence take place at various stages of the exercise - pre, during and post-elections. While some of these incidences are localized and restricted, there are other incidences of electoral violence that manifest large scale intensity and impact on communities outside the ordinary area of their occurrence. Incidentally, electoral violent conflicts in Nigeria from the Western Nigeria election crisis of 1965 to the 2011 post-election violence in some parts of northern Nigeria, one particular trend is noticeable, that is, they all gave clear indication of their occurrence. This is because conflicts do not occur in a vacuum, but they are reactions to social interactions that build up over period of time to snowball into concrete and substantial phenomenon. In fact, events do not happen in the society without early indicators or signs pointing to their likely consequences either of peace or violence. This paper examines electoral violence in Nigeria since return of democracy in Nigeria in 1999, the potentialities of an effective early warning system as a preventive response to election violent conflicts in Nigeria.