British Election Research Articles

Understanding Ambivalent Sexism and its Relationship with Electoral Choice in Britain

AbstractWe investigate the prevalence and correlates of sexism in the British political context, using a measure of ambivalent sexism that distinguishes between hostile and benevolent sexist attitudes. Drawing on original data from two nationally representative online surveys, we find that more than half of the population hold some sexist attitudes and that these are predicted by gender, education, religiosity and authoritarian values. We demonstrate that the most significant division in sexist attitudes within the British electorate falls along political rather than gender lines, with men and women expressing more similar views about sexism than either Conservative and Labour voters, or Leave and Remain supporters. We also find that endorsing hostile sexism is associated with voting Conservative in the 2019 general election, even after controlling for sociodemographic characteristics and political values. Our findings reveal that sexism is important for political competition in contexts where gender is not obviously salient.

LATAR BELAKANG KEMENANGAN PARTAI KONSERVATIF (BORIS JOHNSON) PADA PEMILU INGGRIS TAHUN 2019

The victory of the Conservative party (Boris Johnson) in the 2019 British election was very interested case. By considering that the chairman of the Conservative party before, that has resigned from the position of Prime Minister of the UK twice in 2017 and 2019, its surprised fenomena. In addition, the chairman of the party, Boris Johnson, was known as an controversial figure, racist, and rumors of infidelity. But in the 2019 election the Conservative party (Boris Johnson) shown still could managed to get a majority of the vote. For this reason, this journal aims to explored any factors that support the victory of the Conservative party (Boris Johnson) by the theory of voter behavior and with qualitative descriptive methods. As a result, the Conservative party's succeed was motivated by party management and party leaders in responding to and processing issues currently being faced by British society, such as Brexit, health, and crime. In addition, the Conservative party also had loyal voters who come from middle class and also the support of swinged voters. Johnson's success in offering policies on these issues, especially Brexit, has caused working class voters to also choose Conservative party.

Employing political persuasion to manage rapport: qualitative analysis of campaign leaflets in Sheffield Central constituency

Abstract Rapport management is argued to be a critical antecedent of voter support in election campaigns, as it can motivate cooperation. However, little research has been conducted exploring how rapport is managed in such practice. In the present study, the campaign leaflets of four political parties in Sheffield Central constituency for the 2017 UK general election were analysed in relation to rapport-management strategies. Three domains of discourse were identified and classified in terms of one or more of the six principles of persuasion: Reciprocity, Consistency and Commitment, Social Proof, Authority, Liking, and Scarcity. The findings showed that Reciprocity and Liking were the commonly employed principles in the rapport-management strategies. These two principles were established in the leaflets by justifying and explaining credentials. Authority played a major role in influencing the functioning of the other principles in the rapport-management strategies. Specifically, the more authority a party had, the stronger the commitment made to act as rapport-management strategies. In contrast, the less authority a party had, the greater social proof and scarcity were involved in the strategies.

Vote metropolitanization after the transnational cleavage and the suburbanization of radical right populism: the cases of London and Rome

Voters’ division into opposing territorial blocs seems to be a noticeable feature of current European electoral politics, as mainstream traditional-left parties remain entrenched in the ‘centers’ and challenger parties of the populist Right surge in the ‘peripheries’. This electoral dynamic appears to affect especially the metropolitan areas, where inner districts represent the bastions of cosmopolitanism, while the outer ones the realm of ethnonationalism. In this regard, some authors argue that advanced societies are affected by a ‘metropolitanization of politics’ process. Against this backdrop, the present contribution advances the thesis that the emergence of the ‘transnational cleavage’ and its strengthening during the ‘long post-Recession decade’ (2008-2019) gave a boost to the electoral metropolitanization process. This thesis is tested on two case studies: London and Rome, the capitals of two countries where populist radical right forces proliferated in the 2010s and apparently widened the division between centers and suburbs. First, I investigate whether there has really been a pattern of metropolitanization of the vote in London and Rome. Second, relying on the data collected by the British Election Study (BES) and the Italian National Election Studies (ITANES), I verify whether the presumed electoral polarization corresponds to the concentration of GAL (green/alternative/libertarian) values in inner districts and TAN (tradition/authority/national) values in the suburbs. Findings help to discern not only if the metropolitanization of politics thesis holds in the UK and in Italy, but also if the transnational cleavage has a rooted territorial dimension.

Labour’s Neighbours: reconceptualising the Ramsay Street boom and British politics from Thatcher to Blair

ABSTRACT This article considers two overlapping phenomena: the huge popularity of the Australian soap opera Neighbours in Britain during the late 1980s and early 1990s, and the failure of the Labour Party to mount a successful electoral challenge until the leadership of Tony Blair. It argues that Neighbours’ appeal—community focussed, friendly, classless, unthreatening, a mixed economy, and in some ways small ‘c’ conservative—was precisely the platform that Labour needed to convince voters (particularly women and those living in suburbs) that it failed to reach between 1983 and 1992. Neighbours offered an albeit imagined and fictionalised window into Bob Hawke’s Australia that many of the British electorate found attractive, but until the Labour party tapped into such support, significant numbers of ‘floating voters’ would continue to back the Social Democratic Party and, subsequently, John Major’s Conservatives. There were generational dynamics at play here—with the 8 in 10 12–15 year olds who watched the show in 1990 unable to vote at earlier elections, but joining the franchise in time for the first Blair landslide of 1997. Neighbours was of course not the only influence on such voters, but it was a meaningful one.

Effects of an 8-Week Mindfulness Course on Affective Polarization

ObjectivesThe European Union Brexit referendum has split the British electorate into two camps, with high levels of affective polarization between those who affiliate with the Remain side (Remainers) and the Leave side (Leavers) of the debate. Previous research has shown that a brief meditation intervention can reduce affective polarization, but no study has thus far investigated the effects of an 8-week mindfulness program on affective polarization. This is what will be examined in this study.MethodsThe present study used a randomized waitlist control design (n = 177) with a 1-month post-intervention follow-up to investigate whether an 8-week mindfulness program delivered online would have an effect on affective polarization among Remainers and Leavers.ResultsResults showed significantly greater reductions in affective polarization over time for participants in the mindfulness condition relative to participants in the waitlist control condition (time X group B = − 0.087, p = .024).ConclusionsTaken together, the findings highlight the potential of mindfulness training as a means to reduce intergroup biases in political contexts.Trial RegistrationPreregistered on the Open Science Framework at https://osf.io/px8m2.

Weryfikacja ważności wyborów a międzynarodowe standardy wyborcze – kazus brytyjski

The purpose of the article is to analyze the verification of the validity of elections in the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland. The choice of this country is not accidental. It is the first country in which judicial review of elections appeared, and the rules introduced in the 19th century remain in force almost unchanged to this day. The main thesis of the article is that the rules in force in the United Kingdom for determining the validity of elections are incompatible with international standards. In order to verify this thesis, an attempt is made to indicate the weaknesses of the current legal solutions for verifying the validity of elections. The paper is based on the analysis of the British scientific literature and reports of the Law Commissions, the Electoral Commission and international organizations.

National Polls, Local Preferences and Voters' Behaviour: Evidence from the UK General Elections

National Polls, Local Preferences and Voters' Behaviour: Evidence from the UK General Elections

The heterogeneous price of a vote: Evidence from multiparty systems, 1993–2017

What is the impact of campaign spending on votes? Does it vary across election types, political parties or electoral settings? Estimating these effects requires comprehensive data on spending across candidates, parties and elections, as well as identification strategies that handle the endogenous and strategic nature of campaign spending in multiparty systems. This paper provides novel contributions in both of these areas. We build a new comprehensive dataset of all French legislative and UK general elections over the 1993–2017 period. We propose new empirical specifications, including a new instrument that relies on the fact that candidates are differentially affected by regulation on the source of funding on which they depend the most. We find that an increase in spending per voter consistently improves candidates’ vote share, both at British and French elections, and that the effect is heterogeneous depending on candidates’ party. In particular, we show that spending by radical and extreme parties has much lower returns than spending by mainstream parties, and that this can be partly explained by the social stigma attached to extreme voting. Our findings help reconcile the conflicting results of the existing literature, and improve our understanding of why campaigns matter.

Twelve Votes for an Exit: Compromise and Responsiveness in the Brexit Process

AbstractBrexit has been at the centre of the last two British elections and the past legislative term. The UK's exit from the European Union was characterized by a series of parliamentary setbacks, with several government defeats, continuous rebellions and cross-party agreements made to secure control of the agenda. In the research reported in this article, we analyse the parliamentary Brexit process through careful examination of the 12 indicative votes held in Westminster in 2019 to find an alternative solution to Theresa May's exit agreement. We map the choices of each MP along two relevant dimensions, connecting them to the socioeconomic structure of their constituencies as well as to the preferences expressed in the 2016 Brexit referendum. Moreover, we associate these parliamentary behaviours – and thus MPs' attitudes towards compromise and responsiveness – to the gains and losses experienced during the subsequent 2019 general election.

Explaining the educational divide in electoral behaviour: testing direct and indirect effects from British elections and referendums 2016–2019

ABSTRACT An educational divide has become apparent in Western democratic politics. Our understanding of why this divide has emerged remains limited as existing studies have not utilized mediation methodologies, which allow detailed examination of how education’s shaping effect on electoral behaviour is transmitted. This study addresses this gap in knowledge – providing a more complete picture of why modern British politics divide along educational lines. It applies the Karlson–Holm–Breen method to British Election Study data to explore firstly, what proportion of education’s total effect on vote choices, cast in the 2016 referendum, 2017 and 2019 General Elections, was transmitted indirectly, and secondly, the relative contribution of economic orientations, cultural attitudes and political cue-taking behaviours as drivers of this divide. Findings show 67–91% of education’s total effect on vote choices was transmitted indirectly and crucially, that vote choices divided along educational lines largely because educational groups exhibited divergent economic orientations, cultural attitudes and cue-taking behaviours. Results also highlight that educational division(s) in the referendum and General Election voting were driven by different mechanisms.

Partial Effects for Binary Outcome Models with Unobserved Heterogeneity

Unobserved heterogeneity is ubiquitous in empirical research. In this article, I propose a method for estimating binary outcome models with panel data in the presence of unobserved heterogeneity, called the Penalized Flexible Correlated Random Effects (PF-CRE) estimator. I show that this estimator produces consistent and efficient estimates of the model parameters. PF-CRE also provides consistent estimates of partial effects, which cannot be calculated with existing consistent estimators. Using Monte Carlo simulations, I show that PF-CRE performs well in finite samples. I also illustrate the performance of PF-CRE in two real-data applications: a small T study on party contacts and tactical voting during the 2015 UK general election and a large T panel dealing with the effect of economic sanctions on government stability. In both cases I find that PF-CRE is a valid approach that reduces bias or generates efficiency gains in the estimation.

The political consequences of housing (un)affordability

The enormous growth in house prices in Europe since the 1990s has led to increasing concerns about the affordability of housing for ordinary citizens. This article explores the relationship between housing affordability – house prices relative to incomes – and the demand for redistributive and housing policy, using data drawn from European and British social surveys and an analysis of British elections. It shows that, as unaffordability rises, citizens appear in aggregate to become less supportive of redistribution, interventionist housing policy and left-wing parties. However, this aggregate rise, driven by the predominance of homeowners in most European countries, masks a growing polarization in preferences between renters and owners in less affordable regions.

CORRELATES OF MINDANAO STATE UNIVERSITY ENGLISH PERFORMANCE IN THE SYSTEM ADMISSION AND SCHOLARSHIP EXAMINATION (SASE) IN MSU COMMUNITY COLLEGES

The performance of students in the English concept is a crucial determinant of scholarship and success in the tertiary level of education. This study aimed at finding out the correlates of MSU English performance in the System Admission and Scholarship Examination (SASE) in MSU Community Colleges. Specifically, it has sought to describe the profile of teachers, secondary students, community colleges, and its correlation with the English performance of students. A descriptive-correlational design has been applied in the study and conducted within the 11 community colleges of the university. The secondary students as respondents were selected based on stratified random sampling and assisted to answer the researcher-made instrument. The frequency and percentage distribution, mean, standard deviation, and the correlational tool has been applied in the analysis of the data. Findings revealed that familys income, parents occupation, and the school facilities have been found to have a significant relationship with the SASE performance in English. Thus, these factors are crucial to consider in the analysis of the future performance of the secondary students to be admitted into the college. It is recommended that parents should assess their roles as active partners of the school in educating their children. They should be encouraged by the school to give priority in their activities to support and get involved in the school activities and in following up their childrens accomplishments. A speech laboratory shall promote various programs aimed at improving the performance of students in English. The English Elective Program as the existing program shall be optimized by all colleges of the university.

Music, Digitalization, and Democratic Elections: The Changing Soundtrack of Electoral Politics in the UK

ABSTRACT This article considers the position of music in UK General Elections. It begins by looking at mainstream Party Election Broadcasts, and then discusses the fragmentation of this electoral and musical landscape through the technological and communicative affordances of digital media. Considering campaigners as “produsers”, it examines how musical campaign content illustrates the shifting outputs of those operating within, and outside of, party political structures. These changes relate to broader questions of the extent, or limits, of digitalization’s potential for democratizing political communication. Considering the musical aesthetics of election campaigns is a step toward examining the decision-making processes that underpins them.

Re-examining the EU Referendum vote: right-wing authoritarianism and social dominance orientation as indirect trait-level motivation

ABSTRACT Various economic and social characteristics have been used to explain individual vote choice in the 2016 British EU Referendum. Recently, researchers have considered the role various psychological orientations have played in this vote choice. Here, we are interested in two in particular: right-wing authoritarianism (RWA) and social dominance orientation (SDO); constructs that are often used to predict a host of political attitudes and behaviors, particularly those where group identities are a central issue. Those high in RWA prefer group uniformity and are willing to use coercion to enforce this preference. Those high in SDO prefer group-based, hierarchical social and political systems over more egalitarian systems. These orientations are therefore likely to have played a role in people’s vote choice in this referendum. Using data from the 2014–2019 British Election Study internet panel we show that RWA and SDO powerfully influence anti-immigrant attitudes and pro-sovereignty attitudes; attitudes strongly associated with individual vote choice. Our findings suggest that the EU Referendum effectively rallied people’s prejudices against foreign and domestic outsiders to pull the United Kingdom from the European Union.

The paradox of poor representation: How voter–party incongruence curbs affective polarisation

Research on the relationship between ideology and affective polarisation highlights ideological disagreement as a key driver of animosity between partisan groups. By operationalising disagreement on the left–right dimension, however, existing studies often overlook voter–party incongruence as a potential determinant of affective evaluations. How does incongruence on policy issues impact affective evaluations of mainstream political parties and their leaders? We tackle this question by analysing data from the British Election Study collected ahead of the 2019 UK General Election using an instrumental variable approach. Consistent with our expectations, we find that voter–party incongruence has a significant causal impact on affective evaluations. Perceived representational gaps between party and voter drive negative evaluations of the in-party and positive evaluations of the opposition, thus lowering affective polarisation overall. The results offer a more nuanced perspective on the role of ideological conflict in driving affective polarisation.

The Strategic Use of Visuals on Facebook: A Multimodal Analysis of Images and Audience Reactions During the Campaign for the 2019 UK General Election

The article studies the images that British political parties posted on Facebook during the 2019 UK elections. Verbal and nonverbal resources in the visuals were examined to look at the following strategies: Broadcasting Policy, Mobilization, Attacking Opponents, and Image Management. Overall, attacking opponents was the most common strategy for verbal and nonverbal resources. Attacks against opponents were also associated with a higher number of likes and shares. A substantial portion of text in the images was used to talk about policies, in particular by the two largest parties, the Conservative Party and Labour Party. Visuals posted on Facebook by the Labour Party generated the highest number of audience reactions. Specific differences among political parties were also analyzed and discussed.

Future Conservative Electoral Prospects : Time for Tory Socialism ?

At the 2019 UK general election, under Boris Johnson’s leadership, the Conservatives won a landslide victory with 43.6 per cent of the vote. But what are the Conservative Party’s electoral prospects after the Brexit deal and 2019 general election? Research and polling have demonstrated that the British public are conservative on social and cultural issues, but lean to the left on economic issues. Prima facie a successful electoral strategy would be to implement the ideological narrative of ‘Tory socialism’. This article states the factors that may hinder the party pursuing such an ideology, such as MPs’ commitment to economic and social liberalism. The article concludes that the Conservatives are unlikely to adopt a wholesale version of Tory socialism, as it is likely to increase tensions around three important cleavages. Nevertheless, any electoral narrative will have to balance the tensions and cleavages within the party and its potential voter base. This balancing act may prove a difficult task, and may yet define the premiership of Boris Johnson.

THE LIMITS OF FACT CHECKING: EIGHT NOTES ON CONSENSUS REALITY

In this study, we review the literature on fact-checking and the empirical evidence contending that it can correct prior knowledge and false information. We posit that the growing fact-checking industry is detached from the mis – disinformation landscape and outline eight fundamental problems with fact-checking revolving around epistemology, implementation, bias, efficacy, ambiguity, objectivity, ephemerality, and criticism. We discuss these shortcomings in relation to the establishment of fact-checking agencies across the world and their role in national elections in the United Kingdom, United States, Malaysia, and Brazil. The article concludes with a discussion on the extent to which fact-checking may be effective against false information in a context where consensus reality has been super-imposed by individual reality.