El Nino-Southern Oscillation Variability Research Articles

Little Ice Age climatic erraticism as an analogue for future enhanced hydroclimatic variability across the American Southwest.

The American Southwest has experienced a series of severe droughts interspersed with strong wet episodes over the past decades, prompting questions about future climate patterns and potential intensification of weather disruptions under warming conditions. Here we show that interannual hydroclimatic variability in this region has displayed a significant level of non-stationarity over the past millennium. Our tree ring-based analysis of past drought indicates that the Little Ice Age (LIA) experienced high interannual hydroclimatic variability, similar to projections for the 21st century. This is contrary to the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA), which had reduced variability and therefore may be misleading as an analog for 21st century warming, notwithstanding its warm (and arid) conditions. Given past non-stationarity, and particularly erratic LIA, a ‘warm LIA’ climate scenario for the coming century that combines high precipitation variability (similar to LIA conditions) with warm and dry conditions (similar to MCA conditions) represents a plausible situation that is supported by recent climate simulations. Our comparison of tree ring-based drought analysis and records from the tropical Pacific Ocean suggests that changing variability in El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) explains much of the contrasting variances between the MCA and LIA conditions across the American Southwest. Greater ENSO variability for the 21st century could be induced by a decrease in meridional sea surface temperature gradient caused by increased greenhouse gas concentration, as shown by several recent climate modeling experiments. Overall, these results coupled with the paleo-record suggests that using the erratic LIA conditions as benchmarks for past hydroclimatic variability can be useful for developing future water-resource management and drought and flood hazard mitigation strategies in the Southwest.

The dependence on atmospheric resolution of ENSO and related East Asian-western North Pacific summer climate variability in a coupled model

The authors present results for El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and East Asian-western North Pacific climate variability simulated in a new version high-resolution coupled model (ICM.V2) developed at the Center for Monsoon System Research of the Institute of Atmospheric Physics (CMSR, IAP), Chinese Academy of Sciences. The analyses are based on the last 100-year output of a 1000-year simulation. Results are compared to an earlier version of the same coupled model (ICM.V1), reanalysis, and observations. The two versions of ICM have similar physics but different atmospheric resolution. The simulated climatological mean states show marked improvement over many regions, especially the tropics in ICM.V2 compared to those in ICM.V1. The common bias in the cold tongue has reduced, and the warm biases along the ocean boundaries have improved as well. With improved simulation of ENSO, including its period and strength, the ENSO-related western North Pacific summer climate variability becomes more realistic compared to the observations. The simulated East Asian summer monsoon anomalies in the El Nino decaying summer are substantially more realistic in ICM.V2, which might be related to a better simulation of the Indo-Pacific Ocean capacitor (IPOC) effect and Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO).

Competing influences of anthropogenic warming, ENSO, and plant physiology on future terrestrial aridity.

The 2011-2016 Californian drought illustrates that drought-prone areas do not always experience relief once a favorable phase of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) returns. In the 21st century, such an expectation is unrealistic in regions where global warming induces an increase in terrestrial aridity larger than the aridity changes driven by ENSO variability. This premise is also flawed in areas where precipitation supply cannot offset the global warming-induced increased evaporative demand. Here, atmosphere-only experiments are analyzed to identify land regions in which aridity is currently sensitive to ENSO, and where projected future changes in mean aridity exceed the range caused by ENSO variability. Insights into the drivers of these aridity changes are obtained in simulations with incremental addition of three different factors to current climate: ocean warming, vegetation response to elevated CO2 levels, and intensified CO2 radiative forcing. The effect of ocean warming overwhelms the range of ENSO-driven temperature variability worldwide, increasing potential evapotranspiration (PET) in most ENSO-sensitive regions. Additionally, ~39% of the regions currently sensitive to ENSO receive less precipitation in the future, independent of the ENSO phase. Aridity increases consequently in 67-72% of the ENSO-sensitive area. When both radiative and physiological effects are considered, the area affected by aridity rises to 75-79% when using PET-derived measures of aridity, but declines to 41% when total soil moisture aridity indicator is employed. This reduction mainly occurs because plant stomatal resistance increases under enhanced CO2 concentrations, which results in improved plant water use efficiency, and hence reduced evapotranspiration and soil desiccation. Imposing CO2-invariant stomatal resistance may overestimate future drying in PET-derived indices.

Reduced ENSO variability at the LGM revealed by an isotope‐enabled Earth system model

AbstractStudying the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in the past can help us better understand its dynamics and improve its future projections. However, both paleoclimate reconstructions and model simulations of ENSO strength at the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM; 21 ka B.P.) have led to contradicting results. Here we perform model simulations using the recently developed water isotope‐enabled Community Earth System Model (iCESM). For the first time, model‐simulated oxygen isotopes are directly compared with those from ENSO reconstructions using the individual foraminifera analysis (IFA). We find that the LGM ENSO is most likely weaker comparing with the preindustrial. The iCESM suggests that total variance of the IFA records may only reflect changes in the annual cycle instead of ENSO variability as previously assumed. Furthermore, the interpretation of subsurface IFA records can be substantially complicated by the habitat depth of thermocline‐dwelling foraminifera and their vertical migration with a temporally varying thermocline.

Greening of the Sahara suppressed ENSO activity during the mid-Holocene

The evolution of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) during the Holocene remains uncertain. In particular, a host of new paleoclimate records suggest that ENSO internal variability or other external forcings may have dwarfed the fairly modest ENSO response to precessional insolation changes simulated in climate models. Here, using fully coupled ocean-atmosphere model simulations, we show that accounting for a vegetated and less dusty Sahara during the mid-Holocene relative to preindustrial climate can reduce ENSO variability by 25%, more than twice the decrease obtained using orbital forcing alone. We identify changes in tropical Atlantic mean state and variability caused by the momentous strengthening of the West Africa Monsoon (WAM) as critical factors in amplifying ENSO’s response to insolation forcing through changes in the Walker circulation. Our results thus suggest that potential changes in the WAM due to anthropogenic warming may influence ENSO variability in the future as well.

Climate change and variability impacts on the forests of Bangladesh – a diagnostic discussion based on CMIP5 GCMs and ENSO

ABSTRACTThe aim of this study is to assess the evolution of forests in Bangladesh from the perspective of changing climate, with particular emphasis on the Sundarbans, the world's largest mangrove forest. Projections for temperature and rainfall change have been made using the latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change‐Fifth Assessment Report (IPCC‐AR5) general circulation models (GCMs) protocol (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5, CMIP5) with 38 various GCMs and up to 105 model runs. The GCMs findings were verified by the published results of 11 regional climate models (RCMs) in the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX)‐South Asia models with finer spatial resolution. A CMIP5 model‐based synthesis review on the future variability of El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has also been made, as both the seasonal temperature and rainfall variability in Bangladesh are correlated to ENSO. Both global and regional climate change scenarios indicate that temperature would continue to rise and total annual rainfall is likely to increase in the future. However, weak increases in rainfall combined with high increases in temperature would create a high demand and competition for water because of the higher evapotranspiration environment. In addition to changing climate, the interannual variability of ENSO would further aggravate problems because it displays important correlations with the variability of rainfall, temperatures, sea‐level, lightning, and forest fires in Bangladesh. This study strongly recommends that future climate change projections should be combined with interannual variability ENSO to improve climate perspectives for stronger forest capacity building efforts in Bangladesh.

Impacts of ENSO on multi-scale variations in sediment discharge from the Pearl River to the South China Sea

Sediment load delivered by rivers is an important terrestrial factor in the evolution and productivity of coastal ecosystems and coastal morphology. As the strongest interannual climate signal, the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is closely related to variations in the hydrological cycle at global and regional scales. However, the influence of ENSO on temporal variations in sediment discharge is poorly understood. In this paper, we examine periodic variations in sediment discharge to the South China Sea from the Pearl River since the 1950s using wavelet transform analysis (WT). Furthermore, we apply cross wavelet spectrum (XWT) and wavelet coherence (WTC) to investigate the linkages between ENSO and sediment variability. The WT results revealed that periodic oscillations in sediment discharge in the Pearl River occurred annually (1yr) before the 2000s, interannually (2–8yr) from 1960–2002, and decadally (10–16yr) from 1975–1995. These periodic variations in the sediment load series had common spectrum power with the water discharge and precipitation series, indicating an important climatic control. The XWT and WTC results revealed significant impacts of ENSO on precipitation, water discharge and sediment load at interannual time scales of 2–4.6yr from 1960–2002 with a shift of patterns of ENSO on sediment variability after the 1970s. In addition, an in-phase relation between sediment discharge and ENSO at time scales of 10–16yr from 1975–1995 was detected, indicating that variations at decadal scales could be related to other climatic teleconnections such as the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. Compared with the spectrum structures of periodic variations in precipitation and water discharge and their relationship with ENSO, there was a loss of energy in the sediment load at annual time scales after 2002 that can be attributed to dam construction in the river basin. Our study provides perspectives on the connections between ENSO and sediment variability at different time scales, which is of practical and scientific importance for forecasting global hydrological processes and for river management.

Feedback process responsible for intermodel diversity of ENSO variability

AbstractThe origin of the intermodel diversity of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) variability is investigated by applying a singular value decomposition (SVD) analysis between the intermodel tropical Pacific sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA) variance and the intermodel ENSO stability index (BJ index). The first SVD mode features an ENSO‐like pattern for the intermodel SSTA variance (74% of total variance) and the dominant thermocline feedback (TH) for the BJ index (51%). Intermodel TH is mainly modified by the intermodel sensitivity of the zonal thermocline gradient response to zonal winds over the equatorial Pacific (βh), and the intermodel βh is correlated higher with the intermodel off‐equatorial wind stress curl anomalies than the equatorial zonal wind stress anomalies. Finally, the intermodel off‐equatorial wind stress curl is associated with the meridional shape and intensity of ENSO‐related wind patterns, which may cause a model‐to‐model difference in ENSO variability by influencing the off‐equatorial oceanic Rossby wave response.

Spatiotemporal variability in the δ18O-salinity relationship of seawater across the tropical Pacific Ocean.

The relationship between salinity and the stable oxygen isotope ratio of seawater (δ18Osw) is of utmost importance to the quantitative reconstruction of past changes in salinity from δ18O values of marine carbonates. This relationship is often considered to be uniform across water masses, but the constancy of the δ18Osw-salinity relationship across space and time remains uncertain, as δ18Osw responds to varying atmospheric vapor sources and pathways, while salinity does not. Here we present new δ18Osw-salinity data from sites spanning the tropical Pacific Ocean. New data from Palau, Papua New Guinea, Kiritimati, and Galápagos show slopes ranging from 0.09 ‰/psu in the Galápagos to 0.32‰/psu in Palau. The slope of the δ18Osw-salinity relationship is higher in the western tropical Pacific versus the eastern tropical Pacific in observations and in two isotope-enabled climate models. A comparison of δ18Osw-salinity relationships derived from short-term spatial surveys and multi-year time series at Papua New Guinea and Galápagos suggests spatial relationships can be substituted for temporal relationships at these sites, at least within the time period of the investigation. However, the δ18Osw-salinity relationship varied temporally at Palau, likely in response to water mass changes associated with interannual El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) variability, suggesting nonstationarity in this local δ18Osw-salinity relationship. Applying local δ18Osw-salinity relationships in a coral δ18O forward model shows that using a constant, basin-wide δ18Osw-salinity slope can both overestimate and underestimate the contribution of δ18Osw to carbonate δ18O variance at individual sites in the western tropical Pacific.

The warm Blob in the northeast Pacific—the bridge leading to the 2015/16 El Niño

We address the occurrence of the warm anomaly, known as the Blob, that developed from late 2013 to 2015 in the northeast Pacific and its connection with the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) variability. The warm Blob results from the enhanced second ocean–atmosphere (O–A) coupled mode of variability in the tropical and North Pacific, representing a small part of the Victoria mode (VM) in the northeast Pacific forced by the strengthened North Pacific Oscillation-like atmospheric pattern since 2013. We also show that this second O–A mode reflects the meridional variability through the tropical–extratropical teleconnection and is an important precursor to the ENSO variability. The process is confirmed by the coupled patterns that evolved from late 2013 to 2016 and the multi-year persistence of the warm Blob. We emphasize the role of evolving basin-scale VM but not the warm Blob itself prior to the ENSO variability. Hence, the Blob and the most recent 2015/16 El Niño, which differs significantly from the other large El Niños in terms of the triggering hemisphere, are actually linked rather than independent phenomena.

The impact of the AMO on multidecadal ENSO variability

AbstractMultidecadal shifts in El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) variability have been observed, but it is unclear if this variability is just a random variation in the ENSO cycle or whether it is forced by other modes of climate variability. Here we show a strong influence of the Atlantic on the multidecadal variability of ENSO. The Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) is the dominant mode of multidecadal sea surface temperature (SST) variability in the Atlantic Ocean. Changes in AMO‐related tropical Atlantic SSTs are known to force changes in the Walker circulation in the tropical Pacific Ocean. Using conceptual and coupled model experiments, we show that these changes to the Walker circulation modify ENSO stability on both annual and multidecadal time scales leading to a distinctive pattern of multidecadal ENSO variability that we find in observations and ocean reanalyses.

Late Holocene Marshall Islands Archaeological Tuna Records Provide Proxy Evidence for ENSO Variability in the Western and Central Pacific Ocean

ABSTRACTTuna will have increased importance to Pacific Island nations in coming decades for food security and economic needs; consequently, sustainable fisheries management policies are imperative. The frequency and temporal distribution of tuna bones from tropical Pacific archaeological sites is essential for documenting millennial-scale records that detail the responses of tuna stocks to anthropogenic fishing pressure and climatic variability. We highlight the potential impacts of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) variability on the western and central Pacific Ocean skipjack (Katsuwonus pelamis) fishery over the last 2,000 years. Ebon Atoll (4°38′24.67″N, 168°42′23.56″E), Republic of the Marshall Islands archaeological data and regional western and central Pacific Islands archaeological tuna fishery data are evaluated. These datasets are compared to palaeoclimate records, which track hydroclimate variability during the last 2,000 years, and recent historic capture records, which document associations between ENSO and skipjack abundance and range throughout the tropical Pacific Ocean. Results suggest that regional and temporal trends in archaeological scombrid/skipjack abundance provide proxy evidence for western and central Pacific Ocean ENSO variability, while prehistoric human impacts to the tuna fishery appear to be negligible. Future research should include species-level identification of all archaeological tuna bones and establish fine-grained local climate data across the region that is tied to well-dated archaeological sequences, thus enhancing our understanding of how regional climate influences the geographic distribution and relative abundance of tuna species over millennia.

A 2700-year record of ENSO and PDO variability from the Californian margin based on coccolithophore assemblages and calcification

The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) account for a large part of modern climate variability. Over the last decades, understanding of these modes of climate variability has increased but prediction in the context of global warming has proven difficult because of the lack of pertinent and reproducible paleodata. Here, we infer the dynamics of these oscillations from fossil assemblage and calcification state of coccolithophore in the Californian margin because El Niño has a strong impact on phytoplankton ecology and PDO on the upwelling intensity and hence on the ocean chemistry. Intense Californian upwelling brings water rich in CO2 and poor in carbonate ions and coccolithophores secrete lower calcified coccoliths. Seasonally laminated sediments of the Santa Barbara Basin are used to document ENSO variability and PDO index for the last 2700 years at a temporal resolution of 3 years. The records present the same characteristics as other PDO or ENSO records from the same area spanning the last centuries. We are therefore confident on the value produced here for the last 2.7 millennia. The records show important centennial variability that is equivalent to solar cycles.

Forced changes to twentieth century ENSO diversity in a last Millennium context

The El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) exhibits considerable differences between the evolution of individual El Nino and La Nina events (‘ENSO diversity’), with significant implications for impacts studies. However, the degree to which external forcing may affect ENSO diversity is not well understood, due to both internal variability and potentially compensatory contributions from multiple forcings. The Community Earth System Model Last Millennium Ensemble (CESM LME) provides an ideal testbed for studying the sensitivity of twentieth century ENSO to forced climate changes, as it contains many realizations of the 850–2005 period with differing combinations of forcings. Metrics of ENSO amplitude and diversity are compared across LME simulations, and although forced changes to ENSO amplitude are generally small, forced changes to diversity are often detectable. Anthropogenic changes to greenhouse gas and ozone/aerosol emissions modify the persistence of Eastern and Central Pacific El Nino events, through shifts in the upwelling and zonal advective feedbacks; these influences generally cancel one another over the twentieth century. Other forcings can also be quite important: land use changes amplify Eastern Pacific El Nino events via modulating zonal advective heating, and orbital forcing tends to preferentially terminate twentieth century Central Pacific El Nino events due to enhanced eastern Pacific cooling during boreal winter and spring. Our results indicate that multiple anthropogenic and natural forcings can have substantial impacts on ENSO diversity, and suggest that correctly representing the net ENSO diversity response to climate change will depend on the precise balance between all these influences.

A possible explanation for the divergent projection of ENSO amplitude change under global warming

The El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the greatest climate variability on interannual time scale, yet what controls ENSO amplitude changes under global warming (GW) is uncertain. Here we show that the fundamental factor that controls the divergent projections of ENSO amplitude change within 20 coupled general circulation models that participated in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase-5 is the change of climatologic mean Pacific subtropical cell (STC), whose strength determines the meridional structure of ENSO perturbations and thus the anomalous thermocline response to the wind forcing. The change of the thermocline response is a key factor regulating the strength of Bjerknes thermocline and zonal advective feedbacks, which ultimately lead to the divergent changes in ENSO amplitude. Furthermore, by forcing an ocean general circulation mode with the change of zonal mean zonal wind stress estimated by a simple theoretical model, a weakening of the STC in future is obtained. Such a change implies that ENSO variability might strengthen under GW, which could have a profound socio-economic consequence.

Interdecadal variations of ENSO around 1999/2000

This paper discusses the interdecadal changes of the climate in the tropical Pacific with a focus on the corresponding changes in the characteristics of the El Nino–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Compared with 1979–1999, the whole tropical Pacific climate system, including both the ocean and atmosphere, shifted to a lower variability regime after 1999/2000. Meanwhile, the frequency of ENSO became less regular and was closer to a white noise process. The lead time of the equatorial Pacific's subsurface ocean heat content in preceding ENSO decreased remarkably, in addition to a reduction in the maximum correlation between them. The weakening of the correlation and the shortening of the lead time pose more challenges for ENSO prediction, and is the likely reason behind the decrease in skill with respect to ENSO prediction after 2000. Coincident with the changes in tropical Pacific climate variability, the mean states of the atmospheric and oceanic components also experienced physically coherent changes. The warm anomaly of SST in the western Pacific and cold anomaly in the eastern Pacific resulted in an increased zonal SST gradient, linked to an enhancement in surface wind stress and strengthening of the Walker circulation, as well as an increase in the slope of the thermocline. These changes were consistent with an increase (a decrease) in precipitation and an enhancement (a suppression) of the deep convection in the western (eastern) equatorial Pacific. Possible connections between the mean state and ENSO variability and frequency changes in the tropical Pacific are also discussed.

Remote Sensing of Glacier Change in the Central Qinghai-Tibet Plateau and the Relationship with Changing Climate

The widely distributed glaciers over the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (QTP) represent important freshwater reserves and the meltwater feeds many major rivers of Asia. Glacier change over the QTP has shown high temporal and spatial variability in recent decades, and the driving forces of the variability are not yet clear. This study examines the area and thickness change of glaciers in the Dongkemadi (DKMD) region over central QTP by exploring all available Landsat images from 1976 to 2013 and satellite altimetry data over 2003–2008, and then analyzes the relationships between glacier variation and local and macroscale climate factors based on various remote sensing and re-analysis data. Results show that the variation of glacier area over 1976–2013 is characterized by significant shrinkage at a linear rate of −0.31 ± 0.04 km2·year−1. Glacier retreat slightly accelerated in the 2000s, and the mean glacier surface elevation lowered at a rate of −0.56 m·year−1 over 2003–2008. During the past 38 years, glacier change in the DKMD area was dominated by the variation of mean annual temperature, and was influenced by the state of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). The mechanism linking climate variability over the central QTP and the state of NAO is most likely via changes in the strength of westerlies and Siberian High. We found no evidence supporting the role of summer monsoons (Indian summer monsoon and East Asian monsoon) in driving local climate and glacier changes. In addition, El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) may be associated with the extreme weather (snow storm) in October 1986 and 2000 which might have led to significant glacier expansion in the following years. Further research is needed to better understand the physical mechanisms linking NAO, ENSO and climate variability over the mid-latitude central QTP.

Impact of ENSO on East Asian winter monsoon during interglacial periods: effect of orbital forcing

Orbital forcing influences climate phenomena by changing incoming solar radiation in season and latitude. Here, changes in the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)’s impact on the East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM) due to orbital forcing, especially for three selected time periods in each of two interglacial periods, the Eemian (126, 122, 115 ka) and Holocene (9, 6, 0 ka), are investigated. There was a high negative correlation between ENSO and EAWM when the obliquity was low, the processional angle was large, and especially when accompanied by large eccentricity, which corresponds to a weaker monsoon period. The correlation was also high when ENSO variability was high, which interestingly corresponded to lower obliquity and higher-degree precession periods. Therefore, as both lower obliquity and higher-degree precession, such as during 115 ka and 0 ka, cause the EAWM to be weakened through higher winter insolation over Northern hemisphere, and the ENSO to be enhanced through an intensified zonal contrast of the equatorial sea surface temperature, the relationship between the ENSO and EAWM becomes tighter. The opposite case (i.e., during 126 and 9 ka) is also true dynamically. Furthermore, the sensitivity of boreal winter precipitation against sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly over the tropical Pacific, which depends on mean SST, was positively correlated to the strength of the ENSO-EAWM correlation, implying that the warmer mean ocean surface causes the strong response of atmosphere to change in the SST anomaly, thereby enhancing the impact of ENSO on EAWM. Warmer wintertime tropical SST is attributed to higher insolation over the tropics, especially during 115 and 0 ka, while cooler SSTs occurred during 126 and 9 ka.

An early onset of ENSO influence in the extra-tropics of the southwest Pacific inferred from a 14, 600 year high resolution multi-proxy record from Paddy's Lake, northwest Tasmania

Abstract Tropical El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is an important influence on natural systems and cultural change across the Pacific Ocean basin. El Nino events result in negative moisture anomalies in the southwest Pacific and are implicated in droughts and catastrophic wildfires across eastern Australia. An amplification of tropical El Nino activity is reported in the east Pacific after ca. 6.7 ka; however, proxy data for ENSO-driven environmental change in Australia suggest an initial influence only after ca. 5 ka. Here, we reconstruct changes in vegetation, fire activity and catchment dynamics (e.g. erosion) over the last 14.6 ka from part of the southwest Pacific in which ENSO is the main control of interannual hydroclimatic variability: Paddy's Lake, in northwest Tasmania (1065 masl), Australia. Our multi-proxy approach includes analyses of charcoal, pollen, geochemistry and radioactive isotopes. Our results reveal a high sensitivity of the local and regional vegetation to climatic change, with an increase of non-arboreal pollen between ca. 14.6–13.3 ka synchronous with the Antarctic Cold Reversal, and a sensitivity of the local vegetation and fire activity to ENSO variability recorded in the tropical east Pacific through the Holocene. We detect local-scale shifts in vegetation, fire and sediment geochemistry at ca. 6.3, 4.8 and 3.4 ka, simultaneous with increases in El Nino activity in the tropical Pacific. Finally, we observe a fire-driven shift in vegetation from a pyrophobic association dominated by rainforest elements to a pyrogenic association dominated by sclerophyllous taxa following a prolonged (>1 ka) phase of tropical ENSO-amplification and a major local fire event at ca. 3.4 ka. Our results reveal the following key insights: (1) that ENSO has been a persistent modulator of southwest Pacific climate and fire activity through the Holocene; (2) that the climate of northwest Tasmania is sensitive to long-term shifts in tropical ENSO variability; and (3) that there has been possible stationarity in the spatial influence of ENSO over this region through the Holocene.

Stochastic Parameterization and El Niño–Southern Oscillation

El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the dominant mode of interannual variability in the tropical Pacific. However, the models in the ensemble from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) have large deficiencies in ENSO amplitude, spatial structure, and temporal variability. The use of stochastic parameterizations as a technique to address these pervasive errors is considered. The multiplicative stochastically perturbed parameterization tendencies (SPPT) scheme is included in coupled integrations of the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Community Atmosphere Model, version 4 (CAM4). The SPPT scheme results in a significant improvement to the representation of ENSO in CAM4, improving the power spectrum and reducing the magnitude of ENSO toward that observed. To understand the observed impact, additive and multiplicative noise in a simple delayed oscillator (DO) model of ENSO is considered. Additive noise results in an increase in ENSO amplitude, but multiplicative noise can reduce the magnitude of ENSO, as was observed for SPPT in CAM4. In light of these results, two complementary mechanisms are proposed by which the improvement occurs in CAM. Comparison of the coupled runs with a set of atmosphere-only runs indicates that SPPT first improve the variability in the zonal winds through perturbing the convective heating tendencies, which improves the variability of ENSO. In addition, SPPT improve the distribution of westerly wind bursts (WWBs), important for initiation of El Niño events, by increasing the stochastic component of WWB and reducing the overly strong dependency on SST compared to the control integration.