Effects Of Shocks Research Articles

Testing the effects of fiscal policy shocks on output growth in recession and expansion: empirical evidence from developing countries

Testing the effects of fiscal policy shocks on output growth in recession and expansion: empirical evidence from developing countries

Uncertainty shocks and monetary policy rules in a small open economy

Abstract Post the great financial crisis (GFC) of 2008–2009, there has been a surge in the macroeconomics literature on aggregate uncertainty. Although the recent literature has recognized the adverse real effects of global uncertainty shocks in emerging market economies (EMEs), the role of monetary policy in offsetting these adverse effects and their link with the exchange rates is not explored in the literature. We find that the currently followed interest rate rules (IRRs) under a flexible inflation-targeting regime are ineffective in stabilizing the domestic economy during periods of high global uncertainty in the EMEs. Using a small open economy new Keynesian DSGE model with Epstein–Zin preferences and second-moment demand shocks, we compare and propose alternate monetary policy rules that significantly reduce welfare losses. We find that the best monetary policy rule in terms of welfare depends on the nature of shock that is, first-moment or second-moment shock.

PHYSICAL FACTORS OF THE INFLUENCE THE EXPLOSION ON ENCLOSURE GLASS STRUCTURES. OVERVIEW OF TESTING METHODS

The article examines the main physical parameters of an explosive wave, the properties of explosive loads, as well as the peculiarities of the propagation of waves in space and their dynamic influence on enclosing structures, including translucent The considered temporal and spatial conditions under which the formation of the quasi-flat front of the blast wave takes place and the blast loads can be considered as uniformly distributed along the vertical plane. If the distance to the explosive charge exceeds half of the value of the width and height of the structure or its element (provided that the charge is located in the center of the structure or element), then the load on them can be considered approximately averaged by area. The thermophysical factors of influence, which the building structure must withstand, are analyzed. The main differences of explosive and shock effects from static loads, which are taken into account during construction design, are described. The main real-time methods of determining the parameters of the blast wave in real time and the factors of its destructive effect on the elements of the enclosing structures of buildings are considered. The determination of the critical pressure for a specific structure is tied to the determination of the critical distance at which the structure will not withstand the destructive impact of the shock wave. The main real-time methods of determining the blast wave parameters in real time are considered. It was determined that the use of the shock tube method is rational for conducting research in laboratory conditions. The work was carried out with the assistance of the National Research Fund of Ukraine. The materials of the article contain scientific results obtained as part of the implementation of the project No. 208/0172 "Aerodynamics, heat exchange and innovations to increase the energy efficiency of window structures and their use for the reconstruction of war-damaged buildings of Ukraine" of the competition "Science for the reconstruction of Ukraine in the war and post-war periods".

Statistical learning models to measure the impact of COVID-19 on financial fragility.

This paper investigates the effects of the economic shock produced by the COVID-19 outbreak and diffusion on households'. Through a survey administered to Italian households, without loss of generality, we investigate changes in financial and economic decisions and the households' ability to cope with daily purchases, repay their debt obligations and face unexpected expenses. The paper also applies a statistical learning model through a synthetic indicator for the financial vulnerability of households, integrating the relevant information on the financial literacy and education of the surveyed individuals.

The effect of structural oil shocks on stock returns of Indian renewable energy companies across market conditions

Purpose This study aims to evaluate the structural oil shocks effect on stock returns of Indian renewable energy companies across market conditions. Design/methodology/approach This study applies the structural vector autoregression model to estimate sources of oil shocks such as oil supply shock, aggregate demand shock and oil price-specific demand shock. In the next step, the panel quantile regression model estimates the effect of these oil shocks on stock return across market conditions. Monthly data are collected from January 2009 to December 2019. All renewable energy companies listed on the National Stock Exchange of India are considered for the analysis. Findings In the whole sample analysis, this study finds that oil shocks negatively affect stock returns in most of the market conditions except oil price-specific demand shock. In sub-groups, oil shocks driven by supply and aggregate demand also negatively affect stock return in most market conditions. This study finds the positive interaction of oil price-specific demand shock. A majority of these positive interactions happen in bearish market conditions. In the whole sample, the asymmetric effects of shocks driven from oil supply and oil price-specific demand are seen in most quantiles or market conditions. At the same time, aggregate demand shock does not affect asymmetrically. In the sub-group analysis, standalone renewable energy companies stock returns are least asymmetrically affected by these oil shocks. The asymmetries of oil supply-driven shock on stock returns of the renewable energy sub-group companies are found in most quantiles. Originality/value First, this is a company-level study of the stock returns response to the structural oil shocks in the renewable energy sector. Second, to the best of the authors’ knowledge, this type of study is the first in the Indian context. Third using panel quantile regression model along with capital asset pricing model framework, the authors investigate these effects across market conditions.

Unveiling Interconnectedness and Volatility Transmission: A Novel GARCH Analysis of Leading Global Cryptocurrencies

The cryptocurrency industry has grown erratically and at an alarming pace during its brief life. It has received massive attention from the practitioners, academicians, and especially media since Bitcoin was introduced in 2009. The current paper investigates the volatility dynamics of five major cryptocurrencies, namely Bitcoin, Ethereum, Litecoin, DASH and Ripple’s XRP. It discloses the impact of volatility in the prices of other cryptocurrencies on the Bitcoin’s price volatility. The time series of all the cryptocurrencies prices for the period 2016 to 2022 are considered and preliminary analysis highlights that there exists conditional volatility in all the cryptocurrencies which allows us to use the family of GARCH model. The research findings reveal the significant effect of asymmetric past shocks on the current volatility of Bitcoins. Further, the volatility of remaining virtual currencies are also significantly affecting the Bitcoin’s current volatility. Therefore, the present study unveils the absence of diversification benefits in the market of virtual assets as significant effect of price volatility of other digital coins has been found on the price volatility of Bitcoins. The practical implication of our study is that the findings offer new information for investors and portfolio managers, who are attracted to invest in or hedging strategies in cryptocurrencies.

Exploring the nexus of decent work, financial inclusion, and economic growth: A study aligned with SDG 8

We investigate the potential influence of fair employment practices and financial inclusion on economic growth, focusing on aligning our analysis with the United Nations Sustainable Development Goal 8 (SDG 8). Our study encompasses various countries, including 26 low-income, 20 middle-income, and 15 high-income nations. Utilizing a dynamic fixed-effect panel data approach and employing the Generalized Method of Moments from 2010 to 2021, our findings reveal that conducive environments for decent work and enhanced access to digital financial services positively impact economic growth. This synergistic effect of SDG 8 components is particularly pronounced in high-income countries, suggesting the potential for accelerated economic growth rates. Conversely, our analysis finds no discernible impact on the economic growth of low-income countries. For middle-income countries, nuanced coefficient outcomes provide a more intricate understanding of their economic dynamics. Through extensive impulse-response analysis using a Panel Vector Autoregression model, we illustrate the distinct effects of shocks related to decent work and financial inclusion across various income categories. Our results are robust to multiple sensitivity tests, underscoring their reliability and signaling significant policy implications for acknowledging the critical role of decent work and financial inclusion in fostering economic growth.

Whistler‐Mode Wave Generation During Interplanetary Shock Events in the Earth's Lunar Plasma Environment

AbstractWhistler‐mode waves are commonly observed within the lunar environment, while their variations during Interplanetary (IP) shocks are not fully understood yet. In this paper, we analyze two IP shock events observed by Acceleration, Reconnection, Turbulence and Electrodynamics of the Moons Interaction with the Sun (ARTEMIS) satellites while the Moon was exposed to the solar wind. In the first event, ARTEMIS detected whistler‐mode wave intensification, accompanied by sharply increased hot electron flux and anisotropy across the shock ramp. The potential reflection or backscattering of electrons by the lunar crustal magnetic field is found to be favorable for whistler‐mode wave intensification. In the second event, a magnetic field line rotation around the shock region was observed and correlated with whistler‐mode wave intensification. The wave growth rates calculated using linear theory agree well with the observed wave spectra. Our study highlights the significance of magnetic field variations and anisotropic hot electron distributions in generating whistler‐mode waves in the lunar plasma environment following IP shock arrivals.

The effect of temperature shock on enhancing sperm motility: A new insight into molecular and cellular mechanisms through current procedures

Asthenozoospermia, characterized by reduced progressive motility (below 32%), is a leading cause of male infertility. Intrauterine Insemination (IUI) serves as the first-line treatment in sperm-related processes, aiming to increase sperm motility. Although Density Gradient Centrifugation (DGC) and swim-up procedures have become primary treatment options, considered the gold standard for IUI, there is a need to optimize these methods with additional factors to enhance motility, particularly for Asthenozoospermia patients.We hypothesize that a brief cold shock, lasting approximately 15–20 min at 17 °C, followed by incubation and sperm processing, can substantially enhance motility. For the first time, the hypothesis and evaluation of post-exposure incubation following a short-term cold shock, within the temperature range of 17–20 °C, were explored and discussed.This hypothesis appears valid and holds importance for several reasons. Firstly, there is a significant relationship between cold shock and its impact on intracellular components and the molecular organization of the cell membrane. Additionally, this process regulates various physiological cellular processes, including transbilayer distribution, acrosome reaction, and sperm motility. Moreover, lowering the temperature induces a molecular flux, facilitating calcium uptake by sperm. This process significantly impacts the quantity of calcium accessible to the sperm, particularly within the flagellum. Choosing the temperature below 20 °C temperature can lead to the activation of calcium-absorbing protein channels in the shortest possible time. Furthermore, a crucial reaction in IUI is sperm capacitation, which occurs when the protein tyrosine phosphorylation pathway, a key factor, is activated. Alternatively, the cold incubation of sperm reveals an increased level of tyrosine phosphorylation and a higher percentage of induced Acrosome Reaction (AR) compared to sperm incubated at normal temperatures. Hence, when sperm is cooled, it initiates a process called tyrosine phosphorylation, ultimately leading to sperm capacitation. Besides these logical reasons, there is limited empirical and incidental support in two cases that confirmed the hypothesis well.

Global shocks and the dynamics of EU countries' specialisation

AbstractThis article empirically investigates the effects of global shocks on EU‐28 countries' patterns of specialisation by focusing on the global financial crisis of 2008. In particular, it addresses the following two research questions: Did the financial crisis change the patterns of specialisation of EU member states? Was the impact of the crisis homogenous across countries and manufacturing products? Answering these questions is important because changes in specialisation generate inequalities, given the shift of the demand from one factor to another. Using an unconditional quantile regression approach, this study demonstrates that the financial crisis had a positive effect which was larger on products in which countries were not specialised before the crisis. Some heterogeneity also emerged at both sectoral and geographical levels.

Measurement and Analysis of the Shock and Drop Levels Experienced by Small and Medium Packages in the Korean Parcel Delivery System

South Korea is one of the leading markets for the e-commerce industry. In line with the rapid growth of the e-commerce industry, the parcel delivery volume in Korea has also proliferated. Despite the developments in the Korean e-commerce and courier industries, consumers still experience a high package damage rate. In response, many packaging engineers in Korea have raised the need for new parcel shipping environment tests that reflect the Korean ground shipping environment in order to properly optimize packages. However, only limited information on the Korean parcel shipping environment is currently available. Therefore, this study focused on measuring and analyzing the shock and drop levels that parcels experience during ground shipping in Korea. Shock data were collected from a total of sixty one-way shipments for small, lightweight packages and medium, mid-weight packages. The findings revealed that the two types of boxes do not experience significantly different numbers of shock events or drop heights in the Korean parcel delivery environment. Furthermore, the number of shock events that occur in Korea is substantially less than the international testing standard and less than in previous studies conducted in both Europe and the USA. In contrast, however, the drop heights are higher than those in the international testing standard and previous studies. Shock events were found to occur most frequently on the edges and to be concentrated around the bottoms of the packages. Most shock events happen while packages are loaded and unloaded at hub terminals and sub terminals.

Symmetric and Asymmetric Association Between Foreign Direct Investments and Macroeconomic Variables: An Ardl Approach

Objectives: The main objective of the study is to investigating the dynamic relationship between FDI and different Macro Economic Variables (MEVs) using the ARDL procedure, providing a more comprehensive understanding of the association between FDI and MEVs and to evaluate their relative importance for FDI. Methods: This study utilizes annual data from 1991 to 2021 from the World Bank (2021) and the Reserve Bank of India (2021). Data on GDP, Export, Inflation and interest rate, and FDI are collected from the World Bank. Autoregressive Distributive lag Model procedure has been used for the study in order to establish relationship between Macro economic variables and FDI. Results: Our methodological approach using ARDL model and finds: (a) a positive correlation between exports and FDI, (b) a negative impact of inflation and exchange rates on FDI in the long run. Non-linear ARDL analysis reveals the asymmetric impact of inflation and interest rate on FDI, which includes the effect of positive and negative shock of interest rate and inflation on FDI. d) 1% increase in inflation reduces FDI by 0.4% and if Inflation is reduced by 1%, FDI is increased by 0.2%. At the same time, the non-linear estimation of interest rates concludes that there is an asymmetric and significant association between interest rates and FDI. e) If Interest rate has increased by 1% FDI is decreased by 0.9% and if interest rate has reduced by 1% FDI has deceased by 1.63%. f) The causality analysis reveals that exports, GDP, and exchange rates are the significant economic variables that affect FDI. Conclusion: The study's findings have practical implications for policymakers and investors looking to attract more FDI in India. The results indicate that exports play a critical role in attracting FDI and that the government should focus on improving export performance to increase FDI inflows. Additionally, the study highlights the importance of controlling inflation and exchange rates to attract more foreign investment. The finding that interest rates have an asymmetric relationship with FDI suggests that policymakers should be cautious when implementing monetary policies that may impact interest rates. Overall, the study provides valuable insights for policymakers and investors looking to attract more FDI in India and highlights the importance of considering the country's macroeconomic conditions when making investment decisions.

Modelling Inflation Dynamics and Global Oil Price Shocks in OAPEC Countries: TVP-VAR

This paper aims to examine the dynamic pass-through effect of oil price shocks on inflation in OAPEC countries using quarterly data ranging from 1990:Q1 to 2022:Q4. The incorporation of the TVP-VAR model along with the Markov Chain Monte Carlo method with stochastic volatility estimation offers a robust framework for capturing the time-varying nature of the relationship. Additionally, the analysis of the Impulse Response Function provides valuable insights into the short-term and long-term dynamics following oil price shocks. The results demonstrate a significant positive pass-through effect of oil prices on inflation in the sample member states, with heterogeneous magnitude and persistence. These variations are attributed to diversity in oil dependency, exchange rate regimes, monetary policy frameworks and the degree of openness to global markets. The study suggests the need for effective inflation management strategies and appropriate policy responses to oil price fluctuations. Furthermore, policymakers may consider adjusting exchange rates, interest rates, or trade policies to manage inflationary pressures effectively.

Shocks and Stability of Risk and Time Preferences among Poor Rural Households in Ethiopia

Abstract This paper examines the effects of shocks on temporal stability of risk and time preferences of rural households within a developing country context characterized by frequent droughts, chronic food insecurity, and low levels of education. Leveraging a three-wave large and diverse household panel data that elicits preferences every two years for more than 6,500 individuals from over 5,600 sample rural households in Ethiopia, we analyze the effects of droughts (self-reported) and rainfall shortfalls on household risk and time preferences. Our findings show that households become more risk-averse and impatient after experiencing drought and rainfall shocks; the change in risk preferences is more notable among households that experience recurrent droughts and multiple covariate shocks during the same period.

High-temperature transient-induced thermomechanical damage of fiber-reinforced ceramic-matrix composites in supersonic wind tunnel

This article is based on the supersonic directly connected wind tunnel. Through a specially designed experimental chamber, combined with infrared temperature measurement, high-speed camera, etc., in-situ monitoring of composite materials under airflow at Ma 3.0 with a total temperature of 950 ∼ 1473K was carried out. The dimensional analysis method was used to propose dimensionless parameters to characterize the thermal coupling caused by high-speed airflow thermal shock. Research has shown that the thermal coupling effect of supersonic airflow causes uneven temperature inside the material, and the thermal stress caused by temperature gradient changes (including increasing and decreasing processes) is the main reason for material damage. The damage of ceramic matrix composites under thermal shock mainly manifests as a decrease in surface roughness, surface fiber fracture and a decrease in elastic modulus. In addition, the study also found that there are damage thresholds for the thermal shock effect of airflow at different total temperatures, which helps to further understand the thermomechanical damage mechanism and degradation law of composite structure under high-temperature transient conditions.

From disastrous heat waves to extreme rains: Effects of weather shocks on entrepreneurship

Using household panel data from the Household, Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia (HILDA) Survey and satellite re-analysis temperature and rainfall data, we present the first study to examine the impact of weather shocks on entrepreneurship. We measure temperature and rainfall shocks at the postcode level, and find that an increase in weather shocks in the previous period is associated with a decline in the probability of self-employment in the next period. We find suggestive evidence that health, cognitive functioning and economic activity are mechanisms through which temperature shocks transmit to entrepreneurship. The key insight of this study is that it is less likely that those directly affected by climate events will act entrepreneurially, at least in the short run.

Unpacking the Effects of Bank Credit Supply Shocks on Economic Activity

In this note, we examine the effects of bank credit supply shocks on real economic activity. First, we estimate how GDP and various aggregate demand sectors respond to such shocks. Second, based on the estimated responses, we compute how much those sectors contribute to the overall response of aggregate demand to bank credit supply shocks.

The Effect of Tax Shock on Savings Interest on the Total Portfolio: Financial Computable General Equilibrium (FCGE) Approach

The Effect of Tax Shock on Savings Interest on the Total Portfolio: Financial Computable General Equilibrium (FCGE) Approach

Experimental and MD simulation study of surface residual stress and surface quality of SiCp/Al in pulsed laser-ultrasonic assisted grinding

The utilisation of aluminium-based silicon carbide composites (SiCp/Al) is on the rise. However, during the grinding process, where abrasive particles compel SiC particles into the aluminium matrix, stress concentration occurs near the interface between the two phases. This phenomenon results in adverse surface deformation accompanied by residual compressive stress (RCS). Consequently, a pulsed laser-ultrasonic-assisted grinding method (PL-UAG) has been proposed. The effectiveness of the method is verified through grinding experiments. Moreover, the influence process of the thermal effect of pulsed laser and the evolution mechanism of microscopic RS near the SiCp/Al two-phase interface are revealed through molecular dynamics simulation. The experimental results show that the surface RCS of SiCp/Al gradually decreases and transforms into residual tensile stress (RTS) with the increase of laser power. The RCS increases with the grinding depth. The RCS is reduced to 17 Mpa and the surface roughness Sa value is reduced to 0.110 μm with the laser power is 40 W and the grinding depth is 1 μm. The simulation results show that the energy dissipation process of pulsed laser helps to reduce thermal deformation and damage. The laser-induced thermal effect reduces the deformation of the aluminium matrix caused by particle extrusion and inhibits the formation and slip of dislocations in the aluminium matrix. In addition, the ultrasonic shock effect effectively weakens the RTS generated by the laser.

Play Therapy for Children Exposed to Natural Disasters

Natural disasters occur with increasing frequency every year in our country and around the world. The largest forest fires, in recorded history, occurred in Türkiye in 2021, and the Kahramanmaraş earthquakes, called the disaster of the century, occurred in 2023. Between these dates, our country has struggled with disasters such as avalanches and floods, as well as earthquakes and fires. Due to their unexpected nature and devastating impact on individuals' lives, natural disasters can also have shocking effects on individuals' mental health. Undoubtedly, many people have been affected by these disasters. However, children are a risky group among those affected by natural disasters because their coping skills are limited and they have not yet achieved their independence. In addition, it is known that traumatic experiences in the first years of life negatively affect the individual's development. Therefore, it is thought that the psychological support provided to children after a natural disaster is important. In this sense, play therapy appears as one of the effective intervention methods in the psychological support service provided after natural disasters. The aim of this study was to enable mental health professionals working with children exposed to disaster to understand possible psychopathologies and to create a framework for the role of play therapy in intervening.