The effect of structural oil shocks on stock returns of Indian renewable energy companies across market conditions

Abstract

Purpose This study aims to evaluate the structural oil shocks effect on stock returns of Indian renewable energy companies across market conditions. Design/methodology/approach This study applies the structural vector autoregression model to estimate sources of oil shocks such as oil supply shock, aggregate demand shock and oil price-specific demand shock. In the next step, the panel quantile regression model estimates the effect of these oil shocks on stock return across market conditions. Monthly data are collected from January 2009 to December 2019. All renewable energy companies listed on the National Stock Exchange of India are considered for the analysis. Findings In the whole sample analysis, this study finds that oil shocks negatively affect stock returns in most of the market conditions except oil price-specific demand shock. In sub-groups, oil shocks driven by supply and aggregate demand also negatively affect stock return in most market conditions. This study finds the positive interaction of oil price-specific demand shock. A majority of these positive interactions happen in bearish market conditions. In the whole sample, the asymmetric effects of shocks driven from oil supply and oil price-specific demand are seen in most quantiles or market conditions. At the same time, aggregate demand shock does not affect asymmetrically. In the sub-group analysis, standalone renewable energy companies stock returns are least asymmetrically affected by these oil shocks. The asymmetries of oil supply-driven shock on stock returns of the renewable energy sub-group companies are found in most quantiles. Originality/value First, this is a company-level study of the stock returns response to the structural oil shocks in the renewable energy sector. Second, to the best of the authors’ knowledge, this type of study is the first in the Indian context. Third using panel quantile regression model along with capital asset pricing model framework, the authors investigate these effects across market conditions.