Long-term Effects Of Climate Change Research Articles

Perception of smallholder farmers about climate change and its impacts on crop production across agroecological zones of the Gassera District, Southeastern Ethiopia.

Climate change and variability have threatened rainfed agriculture by affecting the livelihoods of rural communities in Ethiopia. The study area, Gassera District, is among the high-potential crop production areas of the Bale Zone and is severely impacted by recurrent droughts resulting from climate change. This study evaluated smallholder farmers' perceptions of significant climate change and its effects on food crop production across the agroecological zones of the Gassera District. A cross-sectional survey design was employed to collect data from 444 farm households via multistage random sampling techniques. Multiple linear regression (MLR) models were used for the data analysis. The results revealed that 98.5% of the interviewed farmers were aware of climate variability and that 51.6% understood its impact to a reasonable extent. However, over half of the farmers did not perceive climate change as the greatest threat to their livelihood. Most farmers experienced rain becoming more erratic, starting late, and ending early as medium climatic factors (60.4%, 68.1%, and 66.2%, respectively), affecting their crop production. The results revealed that rainfall had a negative and insignificant decreasing trend (2.92mm/year). The annual mean temperature exhibited a positive and statistically significant increasing trend (Ρ < 0.01). Crop production is positively and linearly correlated with the amount of annual rainfall at the Ρ ≤ 0.05 level of significance. The findings revealed that the greatest crop yield loss was associated with lowland agroecology. The MLR results revealed that farmer agroecology, age, sex, and chemical use had substantial impacts on crop yield loss. We urge farmers to understand the long-term effects of climate change on their livelihoods.

Economic impact, pathogen identification and management of blossom and peduncle blight in tuberose: A review

In the global floriculture industry, tuberose [Agave amica (Medik.) Thiede &amp; Govaerts syn. Polianthes tuberosa L.] holds significant economic and cultural value, particularly in regions like Tamil Nadu, India. However, the cultivation of this valuable flower is increasingly threatened by diseases such as blossom blight and peduncle blight. This review examines the economic importance of tuberose and the severe impact of these blights, caused by Fusarium equiseti and Lasiodiplodia theobromae respectively, which canresult in crop losses of up to 43 %. The identification and morphological characteristics of these pathogens are discussed, emphasizing the need for accurate detection and diagnosis to manage these diseases effectively. This article also reviews current management strategies, including chemical fungicides, biocontrol agents and cultural practices, highlighting the efficacy of carbendazim and tebuconazole against L. theobromae and the potential of Aimcozim and organic amendments against F. equiseti . Climate change exacerbates the impact of these diseases, necessitating adaptive management practices. Despite progress, research gaps remain in developing integrated disease management strategies and understanding the long-term effects of climate change on disease epidemiology. This review aims to provide a comprehensive overview of the current knowledge and to encourage further research, with the goal of enhancing the sustainability of tuberose cultivation in the face of these increasing challenges.

Exploring community resilience through Arctic residents' narratives in the Republic of Sakha (Russia).

This article uses the Resilient Community Development frame to explore how the residents from two coastal settlements in the Russian Arctic cope with the long-term effects of climate change, permafrost thaw and challenging socio-economic conditions. Semi-structured interviews were conducted in 2019 in Tiksi and Bykovsky (Republic of Sakha, Russia). These narratives were coded and qualitatively analyzed using the aforementioned framing as a guideline. This article shows that migration, mobility, culture, history, identity and extended networks play a key role in the way that these residents cope with disturbances and upheavals. Sharing past experiences and specific ways to interact with their natural environment, other neighbors and the land they live in are pivotal for the local social configuration and can underpin identity processes. This analysis demonstrates that residents' narratives regarding socio-economic challenges, climate change and permafrost thaw can inform us about short-term concerns, but also how to enhance long-term community resilience.

Long-Term Effect of Temperature Increase on Liver Cancer in Australia: A Bayesian Spatial Analysis.

While some evidence has potentially linked climate change to carcinogenic factors, the long-term effect of climate change on liver cancer risk largely remains unclear. Our objective is to evaluate the long-term relationship between temperature increase and liver cancer incidence in Australia. We mapped the spatial distribution of liver cancer incidence from 2001 to 2019 in Australia. A Bayesian spatial conditional autoregressive (CAR) model was used to estimate the relationships between the increase in temperature at different lags and liver cancer incidence in Australia, after controlling for chronic hepatitis B prevalence, chronic hepatitis C prevalence, and the Index of Relative Socio-economic Disadvantage. Spatial random effects obtained from the Bayesian CAR model were also mapped. The research showed that the distribution of liver cancer in Australia is spatially clustered, most areas in Northern Territory and Northern Queensland have higher incidence and relative risk. The increase in temperature at the lag of 30 years was found to correlate with the increase in liver cancer incidence in Australia, with a posterior mean of 30.57 [95% Bayesian credible interval (CrI): 0.17, 58.88] for the univariate model and 29.50 (95% CrI: 1.27, 58.95) after controlling for confounders, respectively. The results were not highly credible for other lags. Our Bayesian spatial analysis suggested a potential relationship between temperature increase and liver cancer. To our knowledge, this research marks the first attempt to assess the long-term effect of global warming on liver cancer. If the relationship is confirmed by other studies, these findings may inform the development of prevention and mitigation strategies based on climate change projections. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP14574.

Correction to: Effects of Long-term Climate Change on Typhoon Rainfall Associated with Southwesterly Monsoon Flow near Taiwan: Mindulle (2004) and Morakot (2009)

Correction to: Effects of Long-term Climate Change on Typhoon Rainfall Associated with Southwesterly Monsoon Flow near Taiwan: Mindulle (2004) and Morakot (2009)

Assessment of the resilience and long-term effects of climate change on the surface area of Lake Yojoa

Assessment of the resilience and long-term effects of climate change on the surface area of Lake Yojoa

Long-term effects of climate change on juvenile bull shark migratory patterns.

Seasonal variability in environmental conditions is a strong determinant of animal migrations, but warming temperatures associated with climate change are anticipated to alter this phenomenon with unknown consequences. We used a 40-year fishery-independent survey to assess how a changing climate has altered the migration timing, duration and first-year survival of juvenile bull sharks (Carcharhinus leucas). From 1982 to 2021, estuaries in the western Gulf of Mexico (Texas) experienced a mean increase of 1.55°C in autumn water temperatures, and delays in autumn cold fronts by ca. 0.5 days per year. Bull shark migrations in more northern estuaries concomitantly changed, with departures 25-36 days later in 2021 than in 1982. Later, migrations resulted in reduced overwintering durations by up to 81 days, and the relative abundance of post-overwintering age 0-1 sharks increased by >50% during the 40-year study period. Yet, reductions in prey availability were the most influential factor delaying migrations. Juvenile sharks remained in natal estuaries longer when prey were less abundant. Long-term declines in prey reportedly occurred due to reduced spawning success associated with climate change based on published reports. Consequently, warming waters likely enabled and indirectly caused the observed changes in shark migratory behaviour. As water temperatures continue to rise, bull sharks in the north-western Gulf of Mexico could forgo their winter migrations in the next 50-100 years based on current trends and physiological limits, thereby altering their ecological roles in estuarine ecosystems and recruitment into the adult population. It is unclear if estuarine food webs will be able to support changing residency patterns as climate change affects the spawning success of forage species. We expect these trends are not unique to the western Gulf of Mexico or bull sharks, and migratory patterns of predators in subtropical latitudes are similarly changing at a global scale.

Energy Management System for a Residential Positive Energy District Based on Fuzzy Logic Approach (RESTORATIVE)

There is a clear European Strategy to transition by 2050 from a fossil fuel-based economy to a completely new system based on renewable energy resources, with electricity as the main energy carrier. Positive Energy Districts (PEDs) are urban areas that produce at least as much energy as their yearly consumption. To meet this objective, they must incorporate distributed generation based on renewable systems within their boundaries. This article considers the fluctuations in electricity prices and local renewable availability and develops a PED model with a centralised energy storage system focused on electricity self-sufficiency and self-consumption. We present a fuzzy logic-based energy management system which optimises the state of charge of the energy storage solution considering local electricity production and loads along with the contracted electric tariff. The methodology is tested in a PED comprising 360 households in Bilbao (a city in the north of Spain), setting various scenarios, including changes in the size of the electric storage, long-term climate change effects, and extreme changes in the price of energy carriers. The study revealed that the assessed PED could reach up to 75.6% self-sufficiency and 76.8% self-consumption, with climate change expected to improve these values. On economic aspects, the return on investment of the proposal ranges from 6 up to 12 years depending on the configuration choice. Also, the case that boosts the economic viability is tight to non-business as usual (BaU), whichever event spiked up the prices or climate change conditions shortens the economic variables. The average bill is around 12.89 EUR/month per house for scenario BaU; meanwhile, a catastrophic event increases the bill by as much as 76.7%. On the other hand, climate crisis events impact energy generation, strengthening this and, as a consequence, slightly reducing the bill by up to 11.47 EUR/month.

Machine learning and CORDEX-Africa regional model for assessing the impact of climate change on the Gilgel Gibe Watershed, Ethiopia

Climate change is one of the most pressing challenges of our time, profoundly impacting global water resources and sustainability. This study aimed to predict the long-term effects of climate change on the Gilgel Gibe watershed by integrating machine learning (ML) methods and climate model scenarios. Utilizing an ensemble mean of four regional climate models (RCMs) from the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) Africa project, we forecast future climatic conditions. Although global and regional climate simulations offer valuable insights, their limitations necessitate alternative approaches, such as ML, for improved accuracy. Employing an ensemble ML model with Random Forest (RF), Extra Tree (ET), and CatBoost (CB) algorithms, we assessed various bias-correction methods using historical data from 1993 to 2009. Our results highlight the effectiveness of distribution mapping (DM) in capturing temperature variability and precipitation patterns, using the power transpiration (PT) method to represent precipitation variability. Projections indicate a decline in future precipitation under the RCP 8.5 (−32.2%) and SSP 4.5 (−88.8%) for 2024–2049, with further decreases expected for 2050–2099. Conversely, temperatures will rise under RCP 4.5 (TMAX 0.67 °C) and RCP 8.5 (TMAX 0.25 °C and TMIN 1.11 °C) in the near term, exacerbated by higher emissions under SSP 4.5 and 8.5. By leveraging an ensemble mean of four observed RCMs in an ML framework, our study successfully reproduced future Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) and (CMIP6) climatic datasets, with the CB model demonstrating superior performance in predicting future precipitation and temperature trends. These findings offer valuable insights for shaping future climate scenarios and informing policy decisions for the Gilgel Gibe Watershed, thereby enhancing water resource management in the basin and its environs.

Unleashing the Potential of a Hybrid 3D Hydrodynamic Monte Carlo Risk Model for Maritime Structures’ Design in the Imminent Climate Change Era

Submarine pipelines have become integral for transporting resources and drinking water across large bodies. Therefore, ensuring the stability and reliability of these submarine pipelines is crucial. Incorporating climate change impacts into the design of marine structures is paramount to assure their lifetime safety and serviceability. Deterministic design methods may not fully consider the uncertainties and risks related to climate change compared to risk-based design models. The latter approach considers the future risks and uncertainties linked to climate and environmental changes, thus ensuring infrastructure sustainability. This study pioneers a Hybrid 3D Hydrodynamic Monte Carlo Simulation (HMCS) Model to improve the reliability-based design of submarine pipelines, incorporating the effects of climate change. Current design approaches may follow deterministic methods, which may not systematically account for climate change’s comprehensive uncertainties and risks. Similarly, traditional design codes often follow a deterministic approach, lacking in the comprehensive integration of dynamic environmental factors such as wind, waves, currents, and geotechnical conditions, and may not adequately handle the uncertainties, including the long-term effects of climate change. Nowadays, most countries are developing new design codes to modify the risk levels for climate change’s effects, such as sea-level rises, changes in precipitation, or changes in the frequency/intensity of winds/storms/waves in coastal and marine designs. Our model may help these efforts by integrating a comprehensive risk-based approach, utilizing a 3D hydrodynamic model to correlate diverse environmental factors through Monte Carlo Simulations (MCS). The hybrid model can promise the sustainability of marine infrastructure by adapting to future environmental changes and uncertainties. Including such advanced methodologies in the design, codes are encouraged to reinforce the resilience of maritime structures in the climate change era. The present design codes should inevitably be reviewed according to climate change effects, and the hybrid risk-based design model proposed in this research should be included in codes to ensure the reliability of maritime structures. The HMCS model represents a significant advancement over existing risk models by incorporating comprehensive environmental factors, utilizing advanced simulation techniques, and explicitly addressing the impacts of climate change. This innovative approach ensures the development of more resilient and sustainable maritime infrastructure capable of withstanding future environmental uncertainties.

Eco-anxiety, how can the awareness on fighting global warming is becoming a mental health problem

IntroductionAlthough the issue of climate change usually brings thoughts of environmental impact and physical health concerns to our consciousness, climate change also affects people’s mental health. Nowadays there is an emerging condition about climate change anxiety (CCA), defined as negative responses associated with global warming, with apprehension and stress related to the anticipation of threats to the ecosystem and our species. It may include cognitive, emotional, and behavioral responses, for example, persistent worries, psychological distress, or sleep difficulties related to long-term consequences of climate change, and can result in functional impairment.ObjectivesA literature review to analyse the evidence, to be aware of individuals overconcerned about global warming, bring awereness and promote an appropriate seek of professional help when neededMethodsUsing the Medline database through the Pubmed search engine was used, with the keywords: “climate change anxiety”, “eco-anxiety”.ResultsDespite the lack of studies, CCA affects a substantial proportion, especially the younger population, aged from 16 to 25 years old worldwide. As a result of ecoanxiety, people are becoming anxious about their future and the future of the planet as we currently know it, the terrifying and at some extent uncertainty of it. It is documented the importance of green and blue spaces (water places) specially in urban areas for mental wellbeing – as our environment is quickly changing with the global warming, the reduction/disappearing of these areas are ongoing; besides this direct consequence, the disruption of these places results in feelings of loss due to changes to personally significant places a phenomenon known as ‘ecological grief’. Additionally, the occurrence of natural disasters like heatwaves, hurricanes, flooding, wildfire, and drought, raising concern and the socially-mediated impacts of forced migration and conflict caused by it. Self-reported presentations may include panic attacks, insomnia, obsessive thinking, and/or appetite changes caused by environmental concerns. If prolonged symptoms, depressive, anxious disease, post-traumatic stress disorder, among others can develop.ConclusionsTo reduce eco-anxiety individuals can take steps to reduce their carbon footprint, engage in activism and advocacy, bringing more awareness to the subjects and thus taking measures to mitigate the effects of climate change and protect the environment. It’s equal important to consider and address the mental health impacts of climate change, this additionally includes providing adequate emotional and psychological support to those affected.Disclosure of InterestNone Declared

Effects of Long-term Climate Change on Typhoon Rainfall Associated with Southwesterly Monsoon Flow near Taiwan: Mindulle (2004) and Morakot (2009)

Effects of Long-term Climate Change on Typhoon Rainfall Associated with Southwesterly Monsoon Flow near Taiwan: Mindulle (2004) and Morakot (2009)

Investigating the Long-Term Effects of Climate Change on Specific Vulnerable Ecosystem Such as Coral Reefs

Investigating the Long-Term Effects of Climate Change on Specific Vulnerable Ecosystem Such as Coral Reefs

Institutional Proxy Representatives of Future Generations: A Comparative Analysis of Types and Design Features

Future generations will be strongly affected by political decisions made today (e.g., by the long-term consequences of climate change). According to the democratic all-affected principle, the interests of everyone affected by political decisions should be considered in the political decision-making process. Future generations cannot influence democratic decision-making, since they do not yet exist. Election-based democratic incentive systems are said to make it difficult to consider the needs of future generations today. Surprisingly, however, since the early 1990s, an increasing number of democracies have established what could be called institutional proxy representatives of future generations (proxies), i.e., public bodies with institutionalized access to government and/or parliament that introduce the construed interests of future generations into the political decision-making process. Proxies help to consider future generations’ interests alongside the interests of current constituencies. After concept building, this comparative study searches all liberal democracies and identifies 25 proxies, with heterogeneous institutional designs. By employing membership criteria, three types are distinguished: (a) expertise-driven independent guardians (type I), (b) political or administrative advisory and coordination bodies (type II), and (c) sustainability stakeholder councils or committees (type III). They vary considerably in their formal capacity to influence political decision-making (i.e., on what legal basis they were provided with what instruments to address which phases of the policy process and which branches of government). Overall, they should not be overburdened with expectations. While they are usually equipped with the tools to voice the (construed) interests of future generations, they often lack the capacity to act as watchdogs with teeth when ignored.

Analysis of land system resilience: Static and dynamic perspectives

Land system face multiple threats due to the long-term effects of climate change, global geopolitical and economic. Our research simulates the static and dynamic resilience of land systems under increasing socioeconomic pressures and frequent disturbances from natural disasters. We use an improved load-capacity model to simulate the cascading failure effects of agricultural land systems. The study finds that parameters change after deliberate attacks much earlier than random attacks that cause network collapse. The core nodes in the trade structure carry most of the functions, and such regions and land types should be focused on. Cascading failures make the network more vulnerable due to the transmissibility of pressure. Static attacks can cause network collapse when more than 30% of nodes are attacked, while dynamic attacks only need to attack 10% of nodes. According to parameter optimization, the node capacity should be maximized while reducing the gap in the initial load of the nodes, thereby weakening the cascading effect. To ensure the reliability of the results, the article conduct robustness tests. Finally, in order to develop sustainable land systems, the article propose that it is necessary to assess resilience, identify key elements, effectively monitor land systems, and develop sound land protection plans.

Predictability of water resources with global climate models. Case of Northern Tunisia

The objective of the research is to explore the predictability of water resources directly with GCMs by analysing long-term effects of climate change on Northern Tunisia’s blue and green water. Hydrologic impacts rely on a rainfall-runoff lumped model using outputs of CMIP6 GCMs within the framework of the ssp2-45 scenario. Among the 30 CMIP6 models, the composite cnrm-esm2-1 and fgoals-g3 best restore observed runoff from 1995 to 2014 and give the best GCM. Hydrologic projections 2015–2100 show significant drops in rainfall (9%), runoff (21%), groundwater recharge (15%), as well as for green water (6%). The results show that the use of raw GCMs predictions on large basins is possible and provides precisions comparable to what is produced when using Regional Climate Models in medium size basins.

Growth Response of Thai Pine (Pinus latteri) to Climate Drivers in Tak Province of Northwestern Thailand

The long-term effects of climate change and climate extremes have been associated with changes in tree growth and forest productivity worldwide, and dendrochronological analyses are important tools that can be used to investigate the influence of climatic forces on tree growth at a particular site. In this study, a 180-year tree ring width chronology (spanning from 1843 to 2022) of living pine trees (Pinus latteri) in Tak province, northwestern Thailand, was developed. The analysis of the climate–tree growth relationship indicated the influences of the annual total rainfall (r = 0.60, p &lt; 0.001) and annual averaged relative humidity (r = 0.47, p &lt; 0.001) on tree growth in this area. Anomalously high (for example, in 1853, 1984, 2011, and 2018) and low growths (for example, in 1954, 1983, 1992, and 1996) were found. Growth anomalies in the Thai pine in this study were related to changes in abnormal and extreme rainfall (r = 0.94, p &lt; 0.001) and the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Our results confirm that rainfall and relative humidity are the main climatic factors regulating the radial growth of Thai pine. This finding could be an important contribution to further research on the effects of climate change and extreme weather events on the vulnerability of tropical and subtropical trees in this region.

Modeling climate change adaptation for sustainable coastal zones using GIS and AHP

The world is currently confronting one of its biggest environmental challenges: combating climate change. Coastal zones are one of the areas thought to be most sensitive to current and future climate change threats. The paper integrates Remote Sensing (RS), Geographic Information System (GIS) techniques, and Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) to detect vulnerable areas from climate change impacts in coastal zones in order to recommend adaptation systems in new coastal zones that can withstand various climatic changes. The proposed decision-making framework was developed in three phases: 1) climate data collection and processing; 2) Coastal Climate Impact Assessment (CCIA) model development; and 3) implementation and adaptation system selection. The climate data collection and processing phase involves determining the most significant climate change parameters and their indicators that affect coastal zone stability, extracting climatic data indicators from different climate database sources, and prioritizing the selected indicators. The indicators’ weights were estimated using the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) through a questionnaire survey shared with experts in climate change impacts. A CCIA model development phase involves the formulation of the proposed model using GIS technique to discover the vulnerable areas according to the most dominant impact. The implementation and adaptation system selection phase involves the application of the framework to Al-Alamein New City in Egypt. A sensitivity analysis was conducted to measure the behavior of several climate change parameters to identify the most critical parameter for climate change in Al-Alamein New City. The results showed that the geology of the region is the most crucial component influenced by climate change. It is capable of producing a very sensitive area in the coastal zone while also taking other factors into account. When creating new urban neighborhoods, the erosion of the shoreline is the least important factor to consider. This is because coastal deterioration is caused by both the influence of metrological data on the region and the impact of human activity. Shoreline deterioration will be reduced if climate conditions are maintained while limiting the impact of human activities. To adapt to the long-term effects of climate change on coastal zones, a combination of soft and hard protection systems should be considered.

Pandemics and Climate Change as Systemic Risks: Law, Policy, Insurance, Physical Activity and Exercise as Mitigating Environmental Degradation Mechanisms

Climate change and the Covid-19 pandemic have been classified as systemic risks and have elaborated that such systemic risks will become the new normal. Ways to tackle the long-term effects of climate change include law and environmental policy. In addition, insurance can help mitigate the burden placed on governments when such systemic risks occur, including pandemics. In relation to the Covid-19 pandemic and the effects of long-Covid, sports and exercise are examined as a mitigating factor able to release pressure from public health and help mitigate its long-term effects. This article discusses the correlation of Covid-19 with environmental changes and climate changes and goes on to address the role of insurance, on the one hand and sports and exercise on the other hand as mitigating mechanisms to handle systemic risks such as climate change and pandemics. The article’s findings suggest and conclude that 1) outside state action (law and policy), private action such as change in lifestyle towards a more sustainable way of life, and sports and exercise can help with the long-term effects of pandemics and 2) insurance can act as a mitigating private sector mechanism. Governments should integrate law, policy, and mitigating techniques such as private insurance to tackle and respond to systemic risks. climate change, Covid-19, systemic risks, insurance, physical exercise, mitigation for climate change, mitigation, public health

Klimatske promene i zdravlje ljudi

Compared to the end of the 19th century, the average temperature of the earth's surface is higher by 1.1o C, and the last decade (2011-2020) was the warmest recorded since 1850. Mortality rate to high temperatures increases by 1-4% for each degree of increase in air temperature due to dehydration, heatstroke, and worsening of existing respiratory and cardiovascular diseases. Natural disasters such as floods, hurricanes, and storms are associated with an increase in drowning, and injuries, psychological disorders, but also contamination of water and food with an increased risk of infectious diseases. Temperature changes affect the interaction of vectors and hosts, changes in ecosystems, and the existence of new species in a certain area, which leads to an increase in diseases transmitted by mosquitoes (malaria, dengue, chikungunya, and West Nile virus), ticks (Lyme disease), flies (leishmaniasis), snails (schistosomiasis), etc. Animal and plant diseases, in addition to natural disasters and pollution, further increase the reduction in the amount of food, which results in an increase in malnutrition of the human population, from which 3.5 million people die every year. Frequent fires (increase in fine particles 2.5-10 mm and dust) and chemical air pollution (increase in the concentration of sulfur oxides, nitrogen oxides, ozone, and fine particles smaller than 2.5 mm) cause an increase in diseases of the respiratory (asthma, bronchitis, pneumonia, lung cancer) and the cardiovascular system (arteriosclerosis, myocardial infarction, deep vein thrombosis, pulmonary embolism). The change in the pattern of plant vegetation, with the increase in the concentration of pollen in the air, leads to an increased incidence of allergic diseases, which will reach the level of a pandemic in 2050 with about four billion people suffering from asthma, allergic rhinitis and atopic dermatitis. Exposure to algae biotoxins in marine animals, water, or air causes short-term memory disorders and worsening of Alzheimer's and Parkinson's diseases, and chemical substances and heavy metals (released from destroyed warehouses in disasters or sewage spills) as well as insecticides and pesticides have immunotoxic, genotoxic and carcinogenic effect. Mental disorders that occur after natural disasters range from acute traumatic stress to chronic stress conditions, such as post-traumatic stress disorders, depression, anxiety, psychosomatic disorders, sexual dysfunctions, and alcohol and drug abuse. The long-term effects of climate change (natural disasters, sea level rise, destruction of the economy, reduction of natural resources of food, water, fuel, risk of local wars) lead to migration, and by 2050 the migration of about 200 million people is expected.