Long-term Effects Of Climate Change Research Articles

Impact of Climate Change on Crops Productivity Using MODIS-NDVI Time Series

Climate change is the single biggest threat facing the global food system. Irrefutable impacts of climate change on the food systems are recently acknowledged. Therefore, extensive scientific efforts around the globe are dedicated to investigating and evaluating the short and long-term effects of climate change on the development of global food systems. In this study, an integrated approach of two methodologies, including Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) Data and Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), was employed to extrapolate the long-term changes in agronomic areas from 2000 to 2020 in the Dukan Dam Watershed (DDW), Northern Iraq. The link between agricultural areas and the primary production of essential crops (Wheat, Barley, Rice, Maize, and Sunflower) is proposed to be altered due to the impact of climate change. According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report, Iraq is one of the semi-arid regions in the world that has recently been characterized by water scarcity and limited agronomic areas. Three independent variables (rainfall, temperature, and agriculture area) were used in the multiple regression analysis to understand the impact of the main drivers affecting the production of crops in DDW. Obtained results showed an increasing trend in crop production as a result of the frequent use of groundwater and surface water sources along with the implementation of greenhouse cultivation. Correlation analysis shows that the crop production was significantly related to the annual precipitation with a 59–63% in winter crops like wheat and barley, but was less sensitive to the temperature with a 20–40% in summer crops like rice, maize, and sunflower. Doi: 10.28991/CEJ-2022-08-06-04 Full Text: PDF

Gender, Climate Change Adaptation, and Cultural Sustainability: Insights From Bangladesh

The focus of this paper is mainly to investigate climate change adaptation practices and the applicability of a cultural sustainability approach in understanding gender dimension of the residents of the southwest coast of Bangladesh. It is one of the most vulnerable regions in South Asia due to the significant impacts of climate change. The long-term effects of climate change in this region are the increasing salinity in farmlands, heatwaves, and sea-level rise. The southwest coast of Bangladesh is a classic example of “good practice” as well as the center for learning, implementing, and communicating climate change adaptation actions in practice. The reason for this the collective action carried out to initiate and improve adaptation activities by the Ministry of Environment, Forest and Climate Change of the Government of Bangladesh, as well as several national and international development and non-government organizations (NGOs). Using a systematic review of literature, and field-based case studies, we examined how gender and cultural issues (such as the adaptive capacity of men and women, and the transformation of gendered power relations) have been addressed to successfully implement climate change adaptation initiatives in the context of the nominated study area. Our study results revealed that both male and female participants were strategic and capable of dealing with climate change impacts, although the adaptive capacity of the former group was comparatively sturdier than the later. The extent of cultural sustainability was found to be weaker in the study region compared to many other coastal communities in the country. The efforts made by NGOs in collaboration with the governmental bodies of Bangladesh were found contributory in providing knowledge of climate change along with the techniques to adapt to its consequences for the people of the study region. Similarly, the activities of NGOs were found influential in helping the government to support people in adapting to climate change in terms of the gendered and cultural sustainability perspectives. Our findings contribute to the field of climate change impacts in understanding the complexities of rural development.

Impacts of future climate change on flexible road pavement economics: A life cycle costs analysis of 24 case studies across the United States

• A methodological framework to analyze the impacts of climate change on pavement LCC is presented • Pavement LCC are estimated to increase 0.08-0.21% per °C increase in future temperature • Pavement LCC were found to be particularly sensitive to gasoline and diesel unit costs Highway agencies are facing pressure for repairing and replacing underfunded and aged road pavement networks that were initially designed for historical climatic conditions. Road pavements must be updated while accounting for the impacts of climate change, which are likely to be exacerbated in the years to come, and with limited budgets. Methodologies and frameworks that help agencies incorporate the long-term effects of climate change on pavement performance and make informed decisions on how to spend their limited funds are therefore of utmost importance. This paper presents a methodological framework that combines downscaled climate projections, pavement performance predictions using the AASHTOWare Pavement ME Design TM tool, maintenance and rehabilitation strategies, and life cycle costs analysis (LCCA) in a comprehensive system. The proposed methodological framework was adopted in the LCCA of 24 case studies across the contiguous United States under four alternative periods corresponding to simulated climate projections for four 20-year periods (1981-2000, 2001-2020, 2041-2060, and 2081-2100) with a higher Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP8.5). The case study results show that climate change per degree Celsius will lead to approximately $650-700 million/year additional agency costs in the U.S. In addition, climate change will have greater impacts on the costs incurred during the maintenance and end-of-life phases.

Addressing Biases that impact homeowners’ adoption of solar panels

ABSTRACT Solar power is now economically competitive with fossil fuels in many countries, yet relatively few homeowners have elected to install solar panels. A principal reason for this behavior stems from cognitive biases—such as myopia, inertia, and herding—that cause consumers to avoid investing in long-term measures, even those that are financially attractive to them and produce social benefits, such as reducing the long-term consequences of climate change. A behavioral risk audit can demonstrate ways to address these cognitive biases, in concert with short-term economic incentives, social influences and regulation to spark climate action now. We focus on the installation of solar panels and the additional use of solar energy, an issue that has global relevance. The behavioral risk audit offers a way to guide decisions on how to incentivize and accelerate diffusion of solar in the United States and offers lessons for other countries. Key policy insights Solar power is now economically competitive with fossil fuels in many countries, yet relatively few homeowners have installed solar panels on their property. Cognitive biases such as myopia, inertia, and herding cause consumers to avoid investing in long-term measures, such as solar panels, even if they are financially attractive. A behavioral risk audit that addresses biases in concert with short-term economic incentives, social influences and regulation encourages the adoption of solar panels.

The proposal of the Coast-RiskBySea: COASTal zones RISK assessment for Built environment bY extreme SEA level, based on the new Copernicus Coastal Zones data

Natural hazards and the long-term effects of climate change could have disastrous consequences for urban settlements, in this context, risk assessment is a key factor in supporting urban designers and planners. The research proposes a simplified model for the assessment of coastal risk on built environment expressed in terms of potential, direct and tangible, economic damages. The Coast-RiskBySea (COASTal zones RISK assessment for Built environment bY extreme SEA level) is developed in GIS and the risk is evaluated based on the IPCC AR5 and AR6 frameworks through an equation that combines exposure, vulnerability and hazard. The first step is the creation of the land use grid derived from the Copernicus Coastal Zones database, after which then damage scenarios are calculated using depth-damage functions that enable to translate climate impacts into economic damages (exposure). Vulnerability is then assessed in relation to coastal elevation through the DTM and, finally, climate projections of Extreme Sea Level (ESL) are introduced (hazard). To test and verify the approach, the model is applied to the metropolitan city of Naples, Italy, the results show multiple areas at medium and high risk for ESL events with significant economic impacts. From the output maps it is possible to identify the higher risk areas and to understand how, with significant mitigation actions, the risks could be significantly reduced. In conclusion, the Coast-RiskBySea, as it has been developed with input data characterised by a homogeneous spatial coverage, it can be replicable in all EU coastal zones that dispose of a DTM with adequate vertical accuracy.

Reduced methane emissions in former permafrost soils driven by vegetation and microbial changes following drainage.

In Arctic regions, thawing permafrost soils are projected to release 50 to 250 Gt of carbon by 2100. This data is mostly derived from carbon‐rich wetlands, although 71% of this carbon pool is stored in faster‐thawing mineral soils, where ecosystems close to the outer boundaries of permafrost regions are especially vulnerable. Although extensive data exists from currently thawing sites and short‐term thawing experiments, investigations of the long‐term changes following final thaw and co‐occurring drainage are scarce. Here we show ecosystem changes at two comparable tussock tundra sites with distinct permafrost thaw histories, representing 15 and 25 years of natural drainage, that resulted in a 10‐fold decrease in CH4 emissions (3.2 ± 2.2 vs. 0.3 ± 0.4 mg C‐CH4 m−2 day−1), while CO2 emissions were comparable. These data extend the time perspective from earlier studies based on short‐term experimental drainage. The overall microbial community structures did not differ significantly between sites, although the drier top soils at the most advanced site led to a loss of methanogens and their syntrophic partners in surface layers while the abundance of methanotrophs remained unchanged. The resulting deeper aeration zones likely increased CH4 oxidation due to the longer residence time of CH4 in the oxidation zone, while the observed loss of aerenchyma plants reduced CH4 diffusion from deeper soil layers directly to the atmosphere. Our findings highlight the importance of including hydrological, vegetation and microbial specific responses when studying long‐term effects of climate change on CH4 emissions and underscores the need for data from different soil types and thaw histories.

Development in a state of climate change: an Australian case study of government response

Purpose This research seeks to understand the potential impact to investors from government responses to climate change risk, as reflected in changes to planning processes made after significant weather events.Design/methodology/approach The research examines the land planning responses within a select local government authority (“LGA”) area following four significant weather events, in order to identify any changes made, and the impact on future development proposals. The LGA selected is the Central Coast Council, which is a coastal LGA in the Australian State of New South Wales. The research engaged with the publicly accessible records available on the Central Coast Council, Australian Bureau of Meteorology and other websites; and extant literature.Findings The research reveals that some adjustments were made by the Central Coast Council, and or the State government, to relevant laws, policies and processes following these events. These changes, however, tended to focus on imposing additional requirements on future development applications, rather than on requiring changes to current structures, or prohibiting further development works.Research limitations/implications The research has three limitations: (1) land law in Australia varies, as each State and Territory, and LGA, has specific laws, policies and processes; (2) as laws and policies are subject to change, it was necessary to select points in time at which to engage with those laws and processes; and (3) COVID-19's impact on domestic Australian travel [the authors could not travel interstate] meant only documents available on the Internet were considered, however, not all documents relating to development; or changes to laws and processes were easily accessible online. As the research focussed on one case study area, this may limit the applicability of the results to other areas. However, as extreme events are international, the related issues are a concern in all areas.Practical implications This research confirms the results of other extant research, which observed that some risks cannot be properly mitigated, such that any development in an at-risk area remains at risk. It also identifies that more current, accurate and publicly accessible data are required to enable investors to more easily and accurately identify all risks affecting a property.Originality/value The research provides a snapshot of one LGA's response to the physical risks arising from climate change events. As investors and other organisations integrate and build up their analysis of climate risks to their portfolios and organisations, governments become more aware of the long-term effects of climate change and consistently with extant research; this research indicates that a greater awareness is required of current risks and action to manage the short-term effects and cost challenges, in addition to the long-term adaptation requirements.

A framework for quantifying fatigue deterioration of ship structures under changing climate conditions

ABSTRACT The randomness of sea conditions and loading sequences are among the key contributing factors that affect our ability to accurately predict the fatigue crack growth in ships. Climate change may alter the long-term characteristics of these factors along the service life of existing or newly constructed ships. This paper presents a framework for quantifying the impact of climate change on crack propagation in ship hulls. A probabilistic fatigue crack propagation approach is developed to account for uncertainties associated with material properties and loading conditions; specifically, those affected by climate change. Global Climate Models (GCMs) are used to quantify the long-term effects of climate change on the sea conditions and the resulting ship loading time histories. The proposed approach is applied to a tanker ship operating within predefined routes in the Atlantic Ocean. The results show that the effect of climate change on the crack propagation depends on the navigation route.

Most Attractive Scenic Sites of the Bulgarian Black Sea Coast: Characterization and Sensitivity to Natural and Human Factors

Beach management is a complex process that demands a multidisciplinary approach, as beaches display a large variety of functions, e.g., protection, recreation and associated biodiversity conservation. Frequently, conflicts of interest arise, since management approaches are usually focused on recreation, preferring short-term benefits over sustainable development strategies; meanwhile, coastal areas have to adapt and face a changing environment under the effects of long-term climate change. Based on a “Sea, Sun and Sand (3S)” market, coastal tourism has become a major economic sector that depends completely on the coastal ecosystem quality, whilst strongly contributing to its deterioration by putting at risk its sustainability. Among beach users’ preferences, five parameters stand out: safety, facilities, water quality, litter and scenery (the “Big Five”), and the latter is the focus of this paper. Bulgaria has impressive scenic diversity and uniqueness, presenting real challenges and opportunities as an emerging tourist destination in terms of sustainable development. However, most developing countries tend to ignore mistakes made previously by developed ones. In this paper, scenic beauty at 16 coastal sites was field-tested by using a well-known methodology, i.e., the Coastal Scenic Evaluation System (CSES), which enables the calculation of an Evaluation Index “D” based on 26 physical and human parameters, utilizing fuzzy logic matrices. An assessment was made of these high-quality sites located in Burgas (8), Varna (3) and Dobrich (4) provinces. Their sensitivity to natural processes (in a climate change context) and human pressure (considering tourist trends and population increases at the municipality scale) were quantified via the Coastal Scenic Sensitivity Indexes (CSSIs) method. The CSES and CSSI methods allowed us to conduct site classification within different scenic categories, reflecting their attractiveness (Classes I–V; CSES) and level of sensitivity (Groups I–III; CSSI). Their relationship made it possible to identify management priorities: the main scenic impacts and sensitivity issues were analyzed in detail and characterized, and judicious measures were proposed for the scenic preservation and enhancement of the investigated sites. Seven sites were classified as extremely attractive (Class I; CSES), but with slight management efforts; several Class II sites could be upgraded as top scenic sites, e.g., by cleaning and monitoring beach litter. This paper also reveals that investigated sectors were more sensitive to environmental impacts than human pressure; for example, eight were categorized as being very sensitive to natural processes (Group III; CSSI).

Opening Pandora's box: Climate change, COVID-19 and the rise of a new pandemic

Abstract Climate change presents an evolving global healthcare crisis having both direct and indirect impacts on communicable and non-communicable diseases. Rapidly changing climatic conditions and extreme weather events promote the transmission of airborne, waterborne, foodborne, and vector-borne pathogens. Emergence of novel pathogens pose a greater threat to humanity. Several individual pathogens have been documented to cause infectious disease in humans are directly exacerbated by environmental hazards. There is a close interplay between climate change, pathogen virulence, spread and host related factors including susceptibility to more severe disease. The direct link between COVID-19 and climate change is unclear. Due to the recent onset and progression of the pandemic, much is still to be learnt on long-term effects of climate change on COVID-19. The central theme from the COVID-19 crisis was the similarity shared by COVID-19 and climate change on the effect on global microeconomic fundamentals. This should serve as a reality check for the revision of our global climate policy, with its neglect coming at an extremely high cost. COVID-19 allows us a glimpse of what we as society may be faced with in the future if we neglect the adverse effects of climate change.

Impact of climate changes on the insurance market

The problem of climate change is a current social problem in today's civilization. At the same time, it is an ecological problem, but also an economic, political, social, cultural, health problem, etc. It is a global environmental problem, and for this reason we are talking about global climate changes, which affect states, nations, continents, regardless of where they are and what their degree of guilt is in creating and maintaining these changes. The problem of climate change is not easy to define within the framework of only one science, regardless of whether it is natural or social sciences. Bearing in mind the causes and consequences of this social and natural problem, as well as the survival of the natural world and civilization, the question of the context and basis in which this problem can be thought through scientifically also naturally arises. According to all the indicators of various researches of insurance companies, the insurance sector is increasingly involved in the management of risks related to climate change. The issue of determining the potential short-term and long-term effects of climate change on the operations of insurance and reinsurance companies is a priority and the ultimate goal is to find measures to minimize risks and damages. That is why the insurance sector must include climate change in its risk assessment and in that way adequately adjust its product, i.e. insurance.

Effects of climate and land use changes on water quantity and quality of coastal watersheds of Narragansett Bay

Land use is rapidly changing in coastal watersheds, with implications on eutrophication of coastal watersheds. The long-term consequences of climate change on these impacts are critical to watershed management. With coastal watersheds facing frequent hypoxic events and cultural eutrophication, the coupled influence of land use and climate change can lead to policies under nonstationarity assumptions. This study aims to model a regional coastal watershed system using a dynamic simulation with future land use and climate stressors for watershed sustainability. The efficacy of current nutrient management efforts may be limited or undone if future changes in climate or land use increase nutrient and sediment loads to the Narragansett Bay. The baseline model was calibrated and validated to accurately reflect watershed processes to simulate water quantity and quality under the independent and combined influence of future climate and land scenarios. Results show significant effects of climate change and land-use change on the watershed, with demonstrated impacts on sediment loading, organic N, organic P, and nitrates. Climate impacts were much more significant than land-use effects, but land-use impacts displayed greater regional variation. The results from combined simulations indicate that future climate and land-use change will likely negatively impact the coastal system and need restoration efforts that consider nonstationarity. However, the results also highlight the potential to utilize land use to mitigate and adapt to climate change impacts.

Misconceptions and myths surrounding “negative emissions”

Misconceptions and myths surrounding “negative emissions”

Impact of climate change on railway operation and maintenance in Sweden: A State-of-the-art review

Increased intensity and frequency of extreme weather conditions caused by climate change can have a negative impact on rail service performance and also increases total ownership costs. Research has shown that adverse weather conditions are responsible for 5 to 10 % of total failures and 60 % of delays on the railway infrastructure in Sweden. The impact of short-term and long-term effects of climate change and extreme weather events depends on the design characteristics of the railway assets, geographical location, operational profile, maturity of the climate adaptation, etc. These extreme events will have major consequences such as traffic disruption, accidents, and higher maintenance costs during the operation and maintenance (O&M) phase. Therefore, a detailed assessment of the effects of climate change on the O&M phase requires a more comprehensive review of the previous studies reported from different parts of the world. The paper provides a state-of-the-art review of the effects of extreme weather events and their impacts on the operation and maintenance of railway infrastructure. This paper also provides a list of vulnerable railway assets that can have an impact due to extreme weather events.

Multi-objective building design optimization considering the effects of long-term climate change

Building performance is heavily influenced by weather conditions. Though the climate is changing vastly, few building performance optimizations (BPO) consider global warming over the life expectancy of the buildings. This paper develops a novel multi-objective BPO framework by the using simulation-based surrogate models under the future weather conditions that are determined by morphing the typical meteorological year (TMY) data. This framework is adopted to optimize a typical classroom in a hot and humid area under the future weather scenarios of representative concentration pathways (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5. The energy, thermal comfort and daylighting performances with and without considering the climate changes in the optimizations are compared and their notable differences are discussed. Under future climate, the optimization considering the future climate change improves the building performances significantly compared to the optimization without any climate change considerations (i.e., using the historical TMY). Especially, the winter discomfort hours in RCP4.5 and 8.5 decrease by 7.4% and 13.3%, respectively, when such future climate changes are considered in the BPOs, compared to the BPOs using the historical TMY data. The results show that BPO without considering climate change effects may cause non-negligible uncertainties. The proposed method can effectively improve the building performance in a changing climate.

Dynamic Evaluation of the Effects of Climate Change on the Energy Renovation of a School in a Mediterranean Climate

This paper addresses the effects of long-term climate change on retrofit actions on a school building located in a Mediterranean climate. Dynamic energy simulations were performed using Termolog EpiX 11, first with conventional climate data and then with future year climate data exported from the CCWorldWeatherGen computational software. To date, many incentive actions are promoted for school renovations, but are these measures effective in preventing the discomfort that will be found due to overheating generated by climate change? Today, one of the main objectives in retrofit measures is the achievement of ZEB (Zero Energy Building) performance. Achieving this target requires first and foremost a high-performance envelope. This study evaluates the impact of retrofit strategies mostly applied to the school building envelope, over the years, considering three different time horizons, until 2080. Thermal performance indices and indoor operative temperature under free-floating were evaluated. The results highlight that, with a changing climate, it is no longer possible to assume a constant static condition to evaluate retrofit actions, but it is necessary to develop a predictive mathematical model that considers the design variability for future years. There is an urgent necessity to ensure both the safety and comfort of buildings while also anticipating future variations in climate.

Comparative Social Life Cycle Assessment of Two Biomass-to-Electricity Systems.

Biomass plays a fundamental role in numerous decarbonisation strategies that seek to mitigate the short- and long-term effects of climate change. Within this context, decision-makers’ choices need to comprehensively consider potential sustainability effects associated with bioenergy systems. In particular, due to the lack of studies addressing the social sustainability of bioelectricity, the present work applies the Social Life Cycle Assessment (S-LCA) methodology to compare the social performance of two biomass-to-electricity systems located in Portugal based on either fluidised-bed or grate furnace technology. S-LCA involves a comprehensive approach for holistic evaluation and data interpretation of social aspects. Six social indicators were benchmarked: child labour, forced labour, gender wage gap, women in the sectoral labour force, health expenditure, and contribution to economic development. The results show that the implementation of fluidised-bed furnaces as a more efficient conversion technology could reduce by 15–19% the selected negative social impacts, except women in the sectoral labour force. When enlarging the interpretation to a sustainability perspective, the general suitability of the fluidised-bed furnace system would be further emphasised under environmental aspects while jointly providing valuable insights for informed decision-making and sustainability reporting.

Population genomics and conservation of Gila Trout (Oncorhynchus gilae)

Many salmonid species exist in highly structured and isolated populations, and are susceptible to habitat fragmentation and disturbances. Gila Trout (Oncorhynchus gilae) is a threatened species found in the Southwestern United States, and is managed to preserve relict populations (i.e., lineages) distributed across a fragmented landscape. We evaluated genomic variation within and among remaining lineages of Gila Trout using RADseq to assess how drift and selection have structured populations using neutral and outlier loci. We also examined whether a signature of hybridization was evident in relict populations. Gila Trout lineages were significantly differentiated from one another and were characterized by low effective population sizes. However, most lineages maintained genomic diversity and are potentially adapted to local conditions. Hybridization with non-native Rainbow Trout (O. mykiss) was not detected in any lineage. All lineages have experienced population bottlenecks associated with mortality from drought and severe wildfires. Current management strategies should be reevaluated and adapted to better account for long-term effects of climate change. Specifically, we suggest reconnecting some populations via dendritic stream networks to facilitate natural dispersal in a metapopulation context. This would allow natural genetic mixing on the landscape and potentially increase adaptive potential. Furthermore, genetic rescue should be implemented to preserve integrity of the unique Spruce Creek lineage that is currently compromised by extremely low diversity.

Modelling of long-term effects of climate change on irrigation water requirement in the Gaza Strip, Palestine

The agricultural sector in the Gaza Strip is affected by climate change, noting the increase in demand for irrigation requirements. Fresh water in the Gaza Strip is predicted to face an increasing deficit in the coming years. The aim of the current research is to predict the effects of climate change on the irrigation requirements for common crops cultivated in the Gaza Strip. The predicted temperature and precipitation by SimCLIM model for the years 2020, 2050 and 2080 were used as inputs for the CROPWAT model to calculate irrigation requirements of the studied crops. The results of the CROPWAT model showed that the irrigation requirement for olive, citrus, date palm, grapes, guava and alfalfa currently were 553, 577, 958, 530, 2345 and 813 mm/a, and it will be 614, 716, 1132, 660, 2561 and 928 mm/a in 2020. In 2050, it is estimated to be 655, 765, 1198, 704, 2717 and 998 mm/a, while in 2080, irrigation requirement will be 712, 855, 1331, 787, 2970 and 1103 mm/a. It is concluded that climate change is an essential indicator to be considered for the future water resources planning in the Gaza Strip.

The geography of climate migration

AbstractIn this paper, we investigate the long-term effects of climate change on the mobility of working-age people. We use a world economy model that covers almost all the countries around the world, and distinguishes between rural and urban regions as well as between flooded and unflooded areas. The model is calibrated to match international and internal mobility data by education level for the last 30 years, and is then simulated under climate change variants. We endogenize the size, dyadic, and skill structure of climate migration. When considering moderate climate scenarios, we predict mobility responses in the range of 70–108 million workers over the course of the twenty-first century. Most of these movements are local or inter-regional. South–South international migration responses are smaller, while the South–North migration response is of the “brain drain” type and induces a permanent increase in the number of foreigners in OECD countries in the range of 6–9% only. Changes in the sea level mainly translate into forced local movements. By contrast, inter-regional and international movements are sensitive to temperature-related changes in productivity. Lastly, we show that relaxing international migration restrictions may exacerbate the poverty effect of climate change at origin if policymakers are unable to select/screen individuals in extreme poverty.