Modeling climate change adaptation for sustainable coastal zones using GIS and AHP

Abstract

The world is currently confronting one of its biggest environmental challenges: combating climate change. Coastal zones are one of the areas thought to be most sensitive to current and future climate change threats. The paper integrates Remote Sensing (RS), Geographic Information System (GIS) techniques, and Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) to detect vulnerable areas from climate change impacts in coastal zones in order to recommend adaptation systems in new coastal zones that can withstand various climatic changes. The proposed decision-making framework was developed in three phases: 1) climate data collection and processing; 2) Coastal Climate Impact Assessment (CCIA) model development; and 3) implementation and adaptation system selection. The climate data collection and processing phase involves determining the most significant climate change parameters and their indicators that affect coastal zone stability, extracting climatic data indicators from different climate database sources, and prioritizing the selected indicators. The indicators’ weights were estimated using the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) through a questionnaire survey shared with experts in climate change impacts. A CCIA model development phase involves the formulation of the proposed model using GIS technique to discover the vulnerable areas according to the most dominant impact. The implementation and adaptation system selection phase involves the application of the framework to Al-Alamein New City in Egypt. A sensitivity analysis was conducted to measure the behavior of several climate change parameters to identify the most critical parameter for climate change in Al-Alamein New City. The results showed that the geology of the region is the most crucial component influenced by climate change. It is capable of producing a very sensitive area in the coastal zone while also taking other factors into account. When creating new urban neighborhoods, the erosion of the shoreline is the least important factor to consider. This is because coastal deterioration is caused by both the influence of metrological data on the region and the impact of human activity. Shoreline deterioration will be reduced if climate conditions are maintained while limiting the impact of human activities. To adapt to the long-term effects of climate change on coastal zones, a combination of soft and hard protection systems should be considered.