Effects Of Future Environmental Change Research Articles

Quantifying the effects of future environmental changes on water supply and hydropower generation benefits of cascade reservoirs in the Yellow River Basin within the framework of reservoir water supply and demand uncertainty

Inflow and water demand prediction plays an important role in reservoir operation rulemaking. Uncertainties in meteorological and hydrological modeling increase the complexity of inflow and water demand prediction, which are not sufficiently considered in conventional inflow and water demand prediction. Thus, this study took cascade reservoirs as the research object. These cascade reservoirs were located in the mainstream of the Yellow River Basin (YRB). A three-step framework was proposed: (1) developing a distributed Soil & Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model to determine historical and future water availability in the reservoirs; (2) constructing the AquaCrop agricultural irrigation water demand model to predict future water demand of water users at 264 nodes (reservoirs and hydrological stations) in the YRB; (3) developing an optimal regulation model of cascade reservoirs in the YRB mainstream to quantitively determine the influence of future environmental changes on hydropower generation and water supply benefits of cascade reservoirs. The results indicate that the inflow of cascade reservoirs increased in the flood season and decreased significantly during the non-flood season compared with that in the historical period (1970–2016). However, there was a slight increase in the agricultural irrigation water demand, and the contradiction became more prominent between water resource supply and demand. During the future period (2020–2050), the guaranteed rate of hydropower generation and water supply in the YRB’s lower reaches will increase significantly. Uncertainties in climate models greatly impact hydropower generation benefits and reservoir water supply, especially in the flood season. These findings can facilitate the understanding of the complexity of hydropower management and production of cascade reservoirs under future environmental changes (inflow and demand) and encourage the use of regulation models for impact assessment studies and adaptive reservoir management to mitigate climate change.

The Effects of Age and Sex on the Energy Intake of Captive Sea Otters (Enhydra lutris): Implications for Captive Management and Species Conservation

Sea otters (Enhydra lutris) are known ecosystem engineers that have significant impacts on their kelp forest and rocky intertidal communities due to their high levels of food intake. Quantifying sea otter food biomass and energy intake is a valuable way to understand potential ecological impacts of sea otter populations on ecosystems and for predicting future population trends and potential for expansion. While detailed, fine-scale, age-specific food intake is difficult to quantify in wild sea otters, there is a wealth of potential information available from otters under human care. This study used food and energy intake data from husbandry records of 10 sea otters collected over three decades at the Vancouver Aquarium. Within these husbandry records, daily food biomass intake and body mass measurements were recorded and converted to annual average food mass and gross energy intake (GEI). Age-, sex-, and mass-specific trends were also observed. Young sea otters had the highest relative ingested food mass, equivalent to ~26% of body mass, which decreased to ~20% in adult otters. Young otters similarly had the highest mass-specific GEI, where measures from near birth to year 1 were ~40% higher than at year 3, the age of sexual and physical maturity. There were also key differences in trends between sexes. Captive adult male sea otters were 25 to 42% larger than females and their GEI was 23 to 58% higher, although mass-specific GEI was almost identical for male and non-reproductive female otters at all ages, plateauing at ~650 kJ kg-1 d-1. Despite high levels of ingested food mass, GEI was only 5 to 15% higher than for other captive marine mammals and was comparable to previous estimates for wild sea otters. These estimates of ingested food mass and energy intake requirements are valuable when modelling the ecological impact of sea otter populations and for considering the potential effects of future environmental changes.

Effects of snow and land modification on an andesite lava aquifer in Chokai volcano, northwestern Japan

Studied regionChokai volcano is composed of low-permeability andesite lava, a snowfall-influenced hydrological setting that has been little studied. Study focusSnowfall there is expected to decrease due to climate change and expanded quarrying along its southern foot. To evaluate the effects of future environmental changes on the groundwater discharged from springs at the feet of lava flows, which is used for agriculture and domestic purposes, we used isotopic, hadrochemical, geologic, meteorological, and topographic information to elucidate the recharge area, major recharge season, and underground flow of spring waters and surface waters at Chokai. New hydrogeological insights for the regionGroundwater and surface water are of NaCl type with high deuterium excess values, indicating a strong contribution of atmospheric deposition of sea salt aerosols during winter. Altitude indicators based on water H and O isotopic compositions and chloride ion concentrations suggest that the foothill springs are recharged mainly on gentle slopes below ∼700 m elevation. This area is generally covered with volcanic sediments, which contain wetlands and perched aquifers that continuously supply groundwater to the underlying lava through fractures and voids without thorough mixing in the lava aquifer. Anticipated decreases in snowfall and the removal of surface rocks may adversely affect not only the foothill springs supplied by snowmelt and the rice cultivation that depends on them, but also the wetland ecosystem.

Ancient Egyptian mummified shrews (Mammalia: Eulipotyphla: Soricidae) and mice (Rodentia: Muridae) from the Spanish Mission to Dra Abu el-Naga, and their implications for environmental change in the Nile valley during the past two millennia

AbstractExcavation of Ptolemaic Period (ca. 309–30 BC) strata within Theban Tombs 11, 12, -399-, and UE194A by the Spanish Mission to Dra Abu el-Naga (also known as the Djehuty Project), on the west bank of the Nile River opposite Luxor, Egypt, yielded remains of at least 175 individual small mammals that include four species of shrews (Eulipotypha: Soricidae) and two species of rodents (Rodentia: Muridae). Two of the shrews (Crocidura fulvastra and Crocidura pasha) no longer occur in Egypt, and one species (Crocidura olivieri) is known in the country only from a disjunct population inhabiting the Nile delta and the Fayum. Although deposited in the tombs by humans as part of religious ceremonies, these animals probably derived originally from local wild populations. The coexistence of this diverse array of shrew species as part of the mammal community near Luxor indicates greater availability of moist floodplain habitats than occur there at present. These were probably made possible by a greater flow of the Nile, as indicated by geomorphological and palynological evidence. The mammal fauna recovered by the Spanish Mission provides a unique snapshot of the native Ptolemaic community during this time period, and it permits us to gauge community turnover in the Nile valley of Upper Egypt during the last 2000 years. It also serves as a relevant example for understanding the extinction and extirpation of mammal species as effects of future environmental changes predicted by current climatic models.

Extending the applicability of the REVEALS model for pollen-based vegetation reconstructions to coastal lagoons

Quantitative reconstruction of past plant abundance from fossil pollen data is still a challenging task for palynologists. During the last decades, mechanistic methods have been developed to convert pollen assemblages from peat and lake deposits into vegetation abundance at regional and local scale. Coastal areas are particularly sensitive to climate and environmental hazards. Thus, quantitative estimates of past vegetation are important to better understand their history and address potential effects of future environmental changes. However, assumptions of the mechanistic models of pollen dispersal and deposition originally designed for near-circular lakes and bogs located inland are violated when applied to coastal sites because of different basin shape and wind direction distribution. This study investigates how to adapt a model of pollen dispersal and deposition developed for lakes to coastal lagoons. A new geometry is defined, and it is demonstrated how some of the major formulas from previous models can be used without any modification in this singular context.

Grazers increase the sensitivity of coralline algae to ocean acidification and warming

Coralline algae are expected to be adversely impacted by ocean acidification and warming. Most research on these algae has involved experiments on isolated species, without considering species interactions, such as grazing. This myopic view is challenging because the impact of climate change on coralline algae will depend on the direct impacts on individual coralline species and the indirect effects of altered interactions with other species. Here, we tested the influence of grazing on the response of the coralline alga Lithothamnion corallioides to near-future ocean acidification and warming. Two three-month experiments were performed in the winter and summer seasons in mesocosms under crossed conditions of pCO2 (ambient and high pCO2) and temperature (ambient and +3 °C) in the presence and absence of grazers. In the winter, L. corallioides photosynthesis decreased with rising temperature in the presence of grazers, while calcification increased. It is likely that increased calcification may act as a structural protection to prevent damage from grazing. However, increasing calcification rates in the presence of grazers may be detrimental to other physiological processes, such as photosynthesis. In the summer, L. corallioides primary production, respiration, and calcification were higher in the presence of grazers than in their absence. Light calcification rates were reduced under high pCO2 in the presence of grazers only. Moreover, dark calcification rates were more adversely affected by pCO2 increase in the presence of grazers. Through their feeding activity, grazers may alter the structural integrity of thalli and increase the sensitivity of coralline algae to ocean acidification. Our results indicate that both season and grazing play a key role in the response of L. corallioides to acidification and warming. Seasonal variations and species interactions are thus critical to consider to make ecologically relevant predictions of the effects of future environmental changes.

Linking Ross Sea Coastal Benthic Communities to Environmental Conditions: Documenting Baselines in a Spatially Variable and Changing World

Understanding the functionality of marine benthic ecosystems, and how they are influenced by their physical environment, is fundamental to realistically predicting effects of future environmental change. The Antarctic faces multiple environmental pressures associated with greenhouse gas emissions, emphasising the need for baseline information on biodiversity and the bio-physical processes that influence biodiversity. We describe a survey of shallow water benthic communities at eight Ross Sea locations with a range of environmental characteristics. Our analyses link coastal benthic community composition to seafloor habitat and sedimentary parameters and broader scale features, at locations encompassing considerable spatial extent and variation in environmental characteristics (e.g. seafloor habitat, sea ice conditions, hydrodynamic regime, light). Our aims were to: (i) document existing benthic communities, habitats and environmental conditions against which to assess future change, (ii) investigate the relationships between environmental and habitat characteristics and benthic community structure and function, and (iii) determine whether these relationships were dependent on spatial extent. A very high percentage (>95%) of the between-location variability in macro- or epifaunal community composition was explainable using multi-scale environmental variables. The explanatory power varied depending on the scale of influence of the environmental variables measured (fine and medium-scale habitat, broad scale), and with community type. However, the inclusion of parameters at all scales produced the most powerful model for both communities. Ice duration, ice thickness and snow cover were important broad scale variables identified that directly relate to climate change. Even when using only habitat-scale variables, extending the spatial scale of the study from three locations covering 32 km to eight locations covering ~340 km increased the degree of explanatory power from 18-32% to 64-78%. The increase in explanatory power with spatial extent lends weight to the possibility of using an indirect ‘space for time’ substitution approach for future predictions of the effects of change on these coastal marine ecosystems. Given the multiple and interacting drivers of change in Antarctic coastal ecosystems a multidisciplinary, long term, repeated observation approach will be vital to both improve and test predictions of how coastal communities will respond to environmental change.

Dynamic Energy Budget provides mechanistic derived quantities to implement the ecosystem based management approach

The on-going climate change threats are rapidly growing at both global and local scales, affecting ecosystems, societies and economies by altering natural distribution and productivity of key commercial species. Although the ecosystem based management (EBM) focuses on ecosystem equilibria, to provide realistic management measures for important activities at sea such as fisheries and aquaculture, there is a need of quantities; mechanistic approaches are suggested as reliable solutions. Here, a Dynamic Energetic Budget (DEB) application studies the link between environmental change (temperature forecasted increasing scenario in a context of COP 21 [Paris climate conference Agreement] and food density increase) and life-history traits of some Mediterranean fishery and aquaculture target species (Engraulis encrasicolus, Dicentrarchus labrax, Mytilus galloprovincialis, Crassostrea gigas). A sensitivity analysis was applied to simulate the effects of future environmental change on the time needed to reach the commercial size and the length at first maturity. We also explored the efficiency of Integrated Multitrophic Aquaculture (IMTA) as a potential management solution in a context of an adaptive EBM. The worst scenario of rising temperatures (+2 °C) seems to reduce the time needed to reach the commercial size in most species and IMTA potentiates the thermal effect on it. A spatial contextualisation of model outcomes allowed disentangling potential conflicts among human activities at sea. The DEB based life history traits approach can provides quantities to inform the management of marine activities at local scale additionally allowing translating complex results into useful figurative representations for stakeholders.

Migratory behaviour predicts greater parasite diversity in ungulates.

Long-distance animal movements can increase exposure to diverse parasites, but can also reduce infection risk through escape from contaminated habitats or culling of infected individuals. These mechanisms have been demonstrated within and between populations in single-host/single-parasite interactions, but how long-distance movement behaviours shape parasite diversity and prevalence across host taxa is largely unknown. Using a comparative approach, we analyse the parasite communities of 93 migratory, nomadic and resident ungulate species. We find that migrants have higher parasite species richness than residents or nomads, even after considering other factors known to influence parasite diversity, such as body size and host geographical range area. Further analyses support a novel 'environmental tracking' hypothesis, whereby migration allows parasites to experience environments favourable to transmission year-round. In addition, the social aggregation and large group sizes that facilitate migration might increase infection risk for migrants. By contrast, we find little support for previously proposed hypotheses, including migratory escape and culling, in explaining the relationship between host movement and parasitism in mammals at this cross-species scale. Our findings, which support mechanistic links between long-distance movement and increased parasite richness at the species level, could help predict the effects of future environmental change on parasitism in migratory animals.

Forecasting the combined effects of climate and land use change on Mexican bats

AbstractAimClimate and land use change are among the most important threatening processes driving biodiversity loss, especially in the tropics. Although the potential impacts of each threat have been widely studied in isolation, few studies have assessed the impacts of climate and land cover change in combination. Here, we evaluate the exposure of a large mammalian clade, bats, to multiple scenarios of environmental change and dispersal to understand potential consequences for biodiversity conservation.LocationMexico.MethodsWe used ensemble species distribution models to forecast changes in environmental suitability for 130 bat species that occur in Mexico by 2050s under four dispersal assumptions and four combined climate and land use change scenarios. We identified regions with the strongest projected impacts for each scenario and assessed the overlap across scenarios.ResultsThe combined effects of climate and land use change will cause an average reduction in environmental suitability for 51% of the species across their range, regardless of scenario. Overall, species show a mean decrease in environmental suitability in at least 46% of their current range in all scenarios of change and dispersal. Climate scenarios had a higher impact on species environmental suitability than land use scenarios. There was a spatial overlap of 43% across the four environmental change scenarios for the regions projected to have the strongest impacts.Main conclusionsCombined effects of future environmental change may result in substantial declines in environmental suitability for Mexican bats even under optimistic scenarios. This study highlights the vulnerability of megadiverse regions and an indicator taxon to human disturbance. The consideration of combined threats can make an important difference in how we react to changes to conserve our biodiversity as they pose different challenges.

Remote sensing of seasonal changes and disturbances in mangrove forest: a case study from South Florida

AbstractKnowledge of the spatial and temporal changes caused by episodic disturbances and seasonal variability is essential for understanding the dynamics of mangrove forests at the landscape scale, and for building a baseline that allows detection of the effects of future environmental change. In combination with LiDAR data, we calculated four vegetation indices from 150 Landsat TM images from 1985 to 2011 in order to detect seasonal changes and distinguish them from disturbances due to hurricanes and chilling events in a mangrove‐dominated coastal landscape. We found that normalized difference moisture index (NDMI) performed best in identifying both seasonal and event‐driven episodic changes. Mangrove responses to chilling and hurricane events exhibited distinct spatial patterns. Severe damage from intense chilling events was concentrated in the interior dwarf and transition mangrove forests with tree heights less than 4 m, while severe damage from intense hurricanes was limited to the mangrove forest near the coast, where tree heights were more than 4 m. It took 4–7 months for damage from intense chilling events and hurricanes to reach their full extent, and took 2–6 yr for the mangrove forest to recover from these disturbances. There was no significant trend in the vegetation changes represented by NDMI over the 27‐yr period, but seasonal signals from both dwarf and fringe mangrove forests were discernible. Only severe damage from hurricanes and intense chilling events could be detected in Landsat images, while damage from weak chilling events could not be separated from the background seasonal change.

Biodiversity scenarios neglect future land-use changes.

Efficient management of biodiversity requires a forward-looking approach based on scenarios that explore biodiversity changes under future environmental conditions. A number of ecological models have been proposed over the last decades to develop these biodiversity scenarios. Novel modelling approaches with strong theoretical foundation now offer the possibility to integrate key ecological and evolutionary processes that shape species distribution and community structure. Although biodiversity is affected by multiple threats, most studies addressing the effects of future environmental changes on biodiversity focus on a single threat only. We examined the studies published during the last 25years that developed scenarios to predict future biodiversity changes based on climate, land-use and land-cover change projections. We found that biodiversity scenarios mostly focus on the future impacts of climate change and largely neglect changes in land use and land cover. The emphasis on climate change impacts has increased over time and has now reached a maximum. Yet, the direct destruction and degradation of habitats through land-use and land-cover changes are among the most significant and immediate threats to biodiversity. We argue that the current state of integration between ecological and land system sciences is leading to biased estimation of actual risks and therefore constrains the implementation of forward-looking policy responses to biodiversity decline. We suggest research directions at the crossroads between ecological and environmental sciences to face the challenge of developing interoperable and plausible projections of future environmental changes and to anticipate the full range of their potential impacts on biodiversity. An intergovernmental platform is needed to stimulate such collaborative research efforts and to emphasize the societal and political relevance of taking up this challenge.

Habitat availability and gene flow influence diverging local population trajectories under scenarios of climate change: a place-based approach.

Ecological niche theory holds that species distributions are shaped by a large and complex suite of interacting factors. Species distribution models (SDMs) are increasingly used to describe species' niches and predict the effects of future environmental change, including climate change. Currently, SDMs often fail to capture the complexity of species' niches, resulting in predictions that are generally limited to climate-occupancy interactions. Here, we explore the potential impact of climate change on the American pika using a replicated place-based approach that incorporates climate, gene flow, habitat configuration, and microhabitat complexity into SDMs. Using contemporary presence-absence data from occupancy surveys, genetic data to infer connectivity between habitat patches, and 21 environmental niche variables, we built separate SDMs for pika populations inhabiting eight US National Park Service units representing the habitat and climatic breadth of the species across the western United States. We then predicted occurrence probability under current (1981-2010) and three future time periods (out to 2100). Occurrence probabilities and the relative importance of predictor variables varied widely among study areas, revealing important local-scale differences in the realized niche of the American pika. This variation resulted in diverse and - in some cases - highly divergent future potential occupancy patterns for pikas, ranging from complete extirpation in some study areas to stable occupancy patterns in others. Habitat composition and connectivity, which are rarely incorporated in SDM projections, were influential in predicting pika occupancy in all study areas and frequently outranked climate variables. Our findings illustrate the importance of a place-based approach to species distribution modeling that includes fine-scale factors when assessing current and future climate impacts on species' distributions, especially when predictions are intended to manage and conserve species of concern within individual protected areas.

Biotic and Abiotic Factors Interact to Regulate Northern Peatland Carbon Cycling

Understanding the spatio-temporal variability of controls on peatland carbon (C) cycling is essential to project the effects of future environmental change. While there is understanding of individual drivers of C cycling, the effect of multiple drivers, including interactions, remains poorly understood. Using a spatially and temporally explicit sampling framework, we examined the effects of biotic and abiotic controls on key indicators of peatland functioning: ecosystem respiration (Reco), photosynthesis (Pcal), net ecosystem exchange (NEE), methane (CH4) fluxes, and pore water dissolved organic carbon concentration ([DOC]). Measurements were made over 12 months in a blanket peatland hosting a wind farm in Scotland, UK. Overall, we found that (i) season and plant functional type (PFT) explained most variation in Reco and Pcal, (ii) PFT and spatial location within the wind farm, which integrates several peat properties, were dominant predictors of CH4 fluxes, and (iii) season and location within the wind farm correlated with pore water [DOC]. Examination of predictors indicated that interactions, between and within biotic and abiotic factors, explained a significant amount of variation in greenhouse gas fluxes and [DOC]. These findings indicate that combinations of biotic and abiotic factors could mediate or exacerbate the effects of future environmental change on peatland C cycling. Given this, studies of C cycling need to capture the spatial and temporal variance of biotic and abiotic factors and their interactions to project the likely impacts of environmental change.

Resistance of benthic intertidal communities to multiple disturbances and stresses

Many ecosystems are facing biodiversity loss and environmental change due to anthropogenic activities, with these impacts occurring within the context of natural disturbance. Understanding ecosystem functioning and the response of communities to these impacts is necessary in order to evaluate the effects of future environmental change. The aim of this study was to determine the consequences of the loss of key species on the structure and function of intertidal communities in a context of nutrient enrichment, so as to ascertain the resistance of these communities when disturbance and stresses are compounded. Subarctic rocky intertidal communities in Quebec were subjected to an orthogonal factorial field experiment with 3 stress factors (macroalgae canopy loss, grazer exclusion, and nutrient enrichment), each with 2 disturbance levels. Simple and interactive effects of these factors were followed for 4 mo, and responses in structure (% cover and biomass) and productivity were evaluated. The communities that were not subjected to canopy loss showed greater resistance and very limited effects from enrichment and grazer reduction. The loss of canopy altered the community structure (e.g. reduction in richness and biomass) and functioning (reduced productivity), probably due to increased temperatures and desiccation. This lack of resistance was amplified through the addition of a stress. The application of multiple stresses within field experiments allows for a better understanding of the mechanisms affecting community structure and ecosystem functioning under situations of increased natural and anthropogenic stress.

Contrasting patterns of genetic diversity across the ranges of Pinus monticola and P. strobus: a comparison between eastern and western North American postglacial colonization histories.

• Premises of the study: Understanding the influence of recent glacial and postglacial periods on species' distributions is key for predicting the effects of future environmental changes. We investigated the influence of two physiographic landscapes on population structure and postglacial colonization of two white pine species of contrasting habitats: P. monticola, which occurs in the highly mountainous region of western North America, and P. strobus, which occurs in a much less mountainous area in eastern North America.• To characterize the patterns of genetic diversity and population structure across the ranges of both species, 158 and 153 single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) markers derived from expressed genes were genotyped on range-wide samples of 61 P. monticola and 133 P. strobus populations, respectively.• In P. monticola, a steep latitudinal decrease in genetic diversity likely resulted from postglacial colonization involving rare long-distance dispersal (LDD) events. In contrast, no geographic patterns of diversity were detected in P. strobus, suggesting recolonization via a gradually advancing front or frequent LDD events. For each species, structure analyses identified two distinct southern and northern genetic groups that likely originated from two different glacial lineages. At a finer scale, and for the two species, smaller subgroups were detected that could be remnants of cryptic refugia.• During postglacial colonization, the western and eastern North American landscapes had different impacts on genetic signatures in P. monticola compared with P. strobus. We discuss the importance of our findings for conservation programs and predictions of species' response to climate change.

Key areas for conserving United States' biodiversity likely threatened by future land use change

A major challenge for biodiversity conservation is to mitigate the effects of future environmental change, such as land use, in important areas for biodiversity conservation. In the United States, recent conservation efforts by The Nature Conservancy and partners have identified and mapped the nation's Areas of Biodiversity Significance (ABS), representing the best remaining habitats for the full diversity of native species and ecosystems, and thus the most important and suitable areas for the conservation of native biodiversity. Our goal was to understand the potential consequences of future land use changes on the nation's ABS, and identify regions where ABS are likely to be threatened due to future land use expansion. For this, we used an econometric‐based model to forecast land use changes between 2001 and 2051 across the conterminous U.S. under alternative scenarios of future land use change. Our model predicted a total of ∼100,000 to 160,000 km2 of natural habitats within ABS replaced by urban, crop and pasture expansion depending on the scenario (5% to 8% habitat loss across the conterminous U.S.), with some regions experiencing up to 30% habitat loss. The majority of the most threatened ABS were located in the Eastern half of the country. Results for our different scenarios were generally fairly consistent, but some regions exhibited notable difference from the baseline under specific policies and changes in commodity prices. Overall, our study suggests that key areas for conserving United States' biodiversity are likely threatened by future land use change, and efforts trying to preserve the ecological and conservation values of ABS will need to address the potential intensification of human land uses.

A modified matrix model to describe the seasonal population ecology of the European tick Ixodes ricinus

Summary 1. The sheep tick Ixodes ricinus is the most multicompetent vector in Europe, which is responsible for significant diseases of humans and livestock throughout the northern hemisphere. Modelling the tick’s complex seasonal dynamics, upon which pathogen transmission potential depends, underpins the analysis of tick-borne disease risk and potential tick control. 2. We use laboratory- and field-derived empirical data to construct a population model for I. ricinus. The model is a substantially modified stage-classified Leslie matrix and includes functions for temperature-dependent development, density-dependent mortality and saturation deficit–meditated probability of questing. 3. The model was fitted to field data from three UK sites and successfully simulated seasonal patterns at a fourth site. After modification of a single parameter, the model also replicated divergent seasonal patterns in central Spain, but any biological factors underlying this geographical heterogeneity have not yet been identified. The model’s applicability to wide geographical areas is thus constrained, but in ways that highlight gaps in our knowledge of tick biology. 4. Sensitivity analysis indicated that the model was generally robust, particularly to changes in density-independent mortality values, but was most sensitive to changes in parameters related to density-dependent mortality. 5. Synthesis and applications. Vector population models allow investigation into the effects of individual environmental factors on population dynamics in ways not easily possible by experimental manipulation of in situ populations. Our model can be used to evaluate public health risk, tick management strategies and potential effects of future environmental change.

The Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI): unforeseen successes in animal ecology

CR Climate Research Contact the journal Facebook Twitter RSS Mailing List Subscribe to our mailing list via Mailchimp HomeLatest VolumeAbout the JournalEditorsSpecials CR 46:15-27 (2011) - DOI: https://doi.org/10.3354/cr00936 REVIEW The Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI): unforeseen successes in animal ecology Nathalie Pettorelli1,*, Sadie Ryan2, Thomas Mueller3, Nils Bunnefeld4, Bogumila Jędrzejewska5, Mauricio Lima6, Kyrre Kausrud7 1Institute of Zoology, Zoological Society of London, Regent’s Park, NW1 4RY London, UK 2National Center for Ecological Analysis and Synthesis (NCEAS), University of California, 735 State Street, Suite 300, Santa Barbara, California 93101-5504, USA 3Department of Biology, University of Maryland, College Park, Maryland 20742, USA 4Department of Wildlife, Fish, and Environmental Studies, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences, 901 83 Umea, Sweden 5Mammal Research Institute, Polish Academy of Sciences, Waszkiewicza 1c, 17-230 Bialowieza, Poland 6Center for Advanced Studies in Ecology and Biodiversity, Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile, Casilla 114-D, Santiago CP 6513677, Chile 7Centre for Ecological and Evolutionary Synthesis (CEES), Department of Biology, University of Oslo, PO Box 1066 Blindern, 0316 Oslo, Norway *Email: nathalie.pettorelli@ioz.ac.uk ABSTRACT: This review highlights the latest developments associated with the use of the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) in ecology. Over the last decade, the NDVI has proven extremely useful in predicting herbivore and non-herbivore distribution, abundance and life history traits in space and time. Due to the continuous nature of NDVI since mid-1981, the relative importance of different temporal and spatial lags on population performance can be assessed, widening our understanding of population dynamics. Previously thought to be most useful in temperate environments, the utility of this satellite-derived index has been demonstrated even in sparsely vegetated areas. Climate models can be used to reconstruct historical patterns in vegetation dynamics in addition to anticipating the effects of future environmental change on biodiversity. NDVI has thus been established as a crucial tool for assessing past and future population and biodiversity consequences of change in climate, vegetation phenology and primary productivity. KEY WORDS: Satellite · Primary productivity · Remote sensing · Environmental change · NDVI Full text in pdf format PreviousNextCite this article as: Pettorelli N, Ryan S, Mueller T, Bunnefeld N, Jedrzejewska B, Lima M, Kausrud K (2011) The Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI): unforeseen successes in animal ecology. Clim Res 46:15-27. https://doi.org/10.3354/cr00936 Export citation RSS - Facebook - Tweet - linkedIn Cited by Published in CR Vol. 46, No. 1. Online publication date: January 20, 2011 Print ISSN: 0936-577X; Online ISSN: 1616-1572 Copyright © 2011 Inter-Research.

Basin‐Scale Surveys of Stream‐Associated Amphibians in Intensively Managed Forests

Abstract:Conservation and management of native species on landscapes managed for intensive wood production represents an ongoing challenge to forest managers. Previous research suggests that impacts of forest practices on stream‐associated amphibians (SAA; giant [Dicamptodonspp.], torrent [Rhyacotritonspp.], and plethodontid [Plethodonspp.] salamanders and coastal tailed frogs [Ascaphus truei]) in Oregon and Washington, USA, vary spatially and temporally as a result of biotic and abiotic factors, some of which can be influenced by management treatments. Although individual harvest units can encompass multiple stream reaches and entire second‐order basins, nearly all published research studies used stream reaches of various lengths as sample units. To address this discrepancy between research and operational scales, we sampled first‐, second‐, and third‐order streams in 70 randomly selected third‐order basins in Oregon and Washington in 2007 and 2008 to estimate detection and occupancy parameters for SAA and to develop basin‐level density estimates for different species and genera. We estimated occupancy probabilities of 0.99 (95% CL = 0.96–1.00) for torrent and giant salamanders, 0.93 (95% CL = 0.76–0.92) for Dunn's salamanders (Plethodon dunni), and 0.60 (95% CL = 0.46–0.72) for tailed frogs. Our estimates can be compared with estimates for unmanaged third‐order basins in Oregon and Washington to provide a relative measure of potential impacts of forest management on these taxa. In addition, our estimates provide baseline information with which to assess potential effects of future environmental changes on the 4 genera.