Dynamic Energy Budget provides mechanistic derived quantities to implement the ecosystem based management approach

Abstract

The on-going climate change threats are rapidly growing at both global and local scales, affecting ecosystems, societies and economies by altering natural distribution and productivity of key commercial species. Although the ecosystem based management (EBM) focuses on ecosystem equilibria, to provide realistic management measures for important activities at sea such as fisheries and aquaculture, there is a need of quantities; mechanistic approaches are suggested as reliable solutions. Here, a Dynamic Energetic Budget (DEB) application studies the link between environmental change (temperature forecasted increasing scenario in a context of COP 21 [Paris climate conference Agreement] and food density increase) and life-history traits of some Mediterranean fishery and aquaculture target species (Engraulis encrasicolus, Dicentrarchus labrax, Mytilus galloprovincialis, Crassostrea gigas). A sensitivity analysis was applied to simulate the effects of future environmental change on the time needed to reach the commercial size and the length at first maturity. We also explored the efficiency of Integrated Multitrophic Aquaculture (IMTA) as a potential management solution in a context of an adaptive EBM. The worst scenario of rising temperatures (+2 °C) seems to reduce the time needed to reach the commercial size in most species and IMTA potentiates the thermal effect on it. A spatial contextualisation of model outcomes allowed disentangling potential conflicts among human activities at sea. The DEB based life history traits approach can provides quantities to inform the management of marine activities at local scale additionally allowing translating complex results into useful figurative representations for stakeholders.