Effects Of Climate Change Research Articles

The economics of farming expansion in the Brazilian Cerrado under possible effects of climate change

Abstract This analysis assesses the financial viability of legally investing in native Cerrado vegetation deforestation for crop production, considering climate change. The study uses data from twelve different crop models based on three different climate models to predict potential future crop yields in cleared land for growing soy and maize. The outcomes show that in many micro-regions, investments in clearing land for crop production would destroy economic value, that is, generate a negative net present value because of low/negative and volatile cashflows driven primarily by future yields as affected by climate. Our analysis was carried out based on present agricultural practices and technology. As climate changes, farmers may adapt their practices, which can lead to more resilient and productive crops, or grow different crops, which could provide better returns on investment in clearing land than the ones resulting from our analysis. Despite various uncertainties, farmers, policy makers and financial institutions should be aware of the climatic and financial risks associated with land clearing in Brazil, mainly in micro-regions in which all scenarios resulted in negative outcomes in the investment analysis.

Climate change, malaria and neglected tropical diseases: a scoping review.

To explore the effects of climate change on malaria and 20 neglected tropical diseases (NTDs), and potential effect amelioration through mitigation and adaptation, we searched for papers published from January 2010 to October 2023. We descriptively synthesised extracted data. We analysed numbers of papers meeting our inclusion criteria by country and national disease burden, healthcare access and quality index (HAQI), as well as by climate vulnerability score. From 42 693 retrieved records, 1543 full-text papers were assessed. Of 511 papers meeting the inclusion criteria, 185 studied malaria, 181 dengue and chikungunya and 53 leishmaniasis; other NTDs were relatively understudied. Mitigation was considered in 174 papers (34%) and adaption strategies in 24 (5%). Amplitude and direction of effects of climate change on malaria and NTDs are likely to vary by disease and location, be non-linear and evolve over time. Available analyses do not allow confident prediction of the overall global impact of climate change on these diseases. For dengue and chikungunya and the group of non-vector-borne NTDs, the literature privileged consideration of current low-burden countries with a high HAQI. No leishmaniasis papers considered outcomes in East Africa. Comprehensive, collaborative and standardised modelling efforts are needed to better understand how climate change will directly and indirectly affect malaria and NTDs.

Dynamics of hydrogen storage in subsurface saline aquifers: A computational and experimental pore-scale displacement study

The catastrophic effects of climate change can be mitigated by transitioning to renewable energy sources such as wind, solar, and hydropower while utilizing hydrogen (H2) as an energy carrier. As renewable fuel sources are intermittent and location-specific, large-scale, long-term storage options for H2 must be explored with high necessity. Subsurface hydrogen storage in saline aquifers provides a vital scope to store H2 gas in available pore voids with minimal environmental risk. In this work, a highly heterogeneous porous micromodel was used to study the immiscible two-phase dynamics at high-temperature, high-pressure saline aquifer conditions using computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulation based on volume of fluid (VOF) method. A set of microfluidic experiments were carried out under atmospheric conditions to validate the numerical model. The VOF model was observed to show good agreement with microfluidic experiments. An unstable displacement pattern with viscous fingering was observed during various flow conditions that captured high pressure (15 and 25 MPa) and temperature conditions (323 and 343 K). It was observed that fingering displacement of brine limits the storage spaces for hydrogen, which consequently follows the high permeable path. As a result, only 0.272 fraction of brine was invaded by the H2 at a temperature of 323 K and pressure of 15 MPa. A comparison between H2-brine and nitrogen (N2)-brine flow dynamics revealed a 46% less storage capacity of porous media for H2. Formations bearing high temperature (343 K) showed an 11.27% increase in H2 storage capacity, while pressure increase had negligible effect. At low capillary number (Ca), more snap-off effects resulted in higher trapping of H2 gas. This study aims to provide meaningful insights into the complexities of flow dynamics and displacement patterns that are crucial for optimizing hydrogen storage efficiency in saline aquifers and for potential ‘white’ hydrogen production.

The cascading effects of climate change on children: extreme floods, family mobility and child well-being in Amazonia

ABSTRACT Climate change is a systemic crisis with an important intergenerational dimension, as its detrimental effects are expected to escalate over time. While the Children's Climate Risk Index (CCRI) provides valuable insights into measurable generational vulnerabilities, it tends to overlook the intricate and cascading impacts of weather changes on children's lives. This paper reflects on the less visible dimensions of children’s climate risk by examining a burgeoning trend of seasonal migration in Amazonia’s floodplains. Combining in-depth participant observation and draw-and-tell interviews with children, the paper focuses on identifying the different factors that shape children’s diverse experiences of flood impacts. The article examines how age and gender shape decisions around family mobility, and how different patterns of economic migration affect children left behind. The findings reveal that climate change is eroding vital social networks for children and exposing them to material and emotional hardship. The conclusion reflects on the importance of a more nuanced understanding of children’s climate risk and presents potential directions for attending to relational precarity in climate programming.

Northeast Atlantic fish stock productivity hindcasts and forecasts from a Bayesian framework reveal pronounced climate‐induced dynamics

AbstractClimate change continues to exert pressure on ocean ecosystems. The fisheries‐related responses, such as altered body growth, recruitment and spatial distribution of the targeted stock(s), have generally been reasonably well investigated. Nevertheless, there are still important knowledge gaps in how biophysical drivers impact stock productivity and thereby sustainable harvest levels. Considering this, we investigated 26 fish stocks in the Northeast Atlantic, a region characterized by accelerated climate change effects and a diverse set of fisheries. A novel, stepwise, Bayesian framework to quantify stock productivity was established to identify shared trends and project future patterns, aiming at determining essential baselines for adaptive fishery management in the face of climate change. Despite variation among large marine ecosystems and stocks, an overall declining trend in productivity over the past four decades was observed, especially in high‐latitude areas. These hindcast results were mainly attributed to higher temperatures posing negative effects on productivity, which was dependent on the stock's thermal preference. Contrastingly, the proxy for food availability – gross secondary production – exhibited less consistent impacts. In the forecast, the applied Shared Socio‐economic Pathways (SSPs) indicated that most stocks are likely to encounter adverse effects, with the worst cases expected to occur under SSP2‐4.5 in the 2050s, and under SSP5‐8.5 in the 2090s. Thus, this study generally not only supports earlier climate vulnerability assessments (‘scorings’) of experts but also provides evidence for revised directional effects under climate change, underlining the complexity of processes affecting stock productivity.

Assessment of the effects of extreme temperature on economic activity

The effects of climate change on the economy are becoming increasingly evident. Based on information of all newly registered enterprises in China from 2000 to 2019, we discuss the relationship between heatwave and entrepreneurial activities at county level. Results indicate that extremely high temperatures can negatively affect entrepreneurial activities. Moreover, after considering endogeneity issues and conducting a series of robustness checks, the conclusion remains. In addition, mechanism testing shows that extremely high temperatures reduce the attractiveness of entrepreneurship by generating fiscal pressure effects, industrial dependence effects, and leading demonstration effects. Finally, heterogeneity analysis indicates that the adverse effects of extremely high temperatures will be alleviated in areas with large populations and high levels of education and healthcare. Different from the relief effect brought by the vigorous development of the secondary and tertiary industries, regions that rely more on the primary industry suffer more severe damage.

Enhancement of the Vegetation Carbon Uptake by the Synergistic Approach to Air Pollution Control and Carbon Neutrality in China

Carbon sinks provided by land ecosystems play a crucial role in achieving carbon neutrality. However, the future potential of carbon sequestration remains highly uncertain. The impact of pollutant emission reduction (PER) introduced by the proposed synergistic approach to air pollution control and carbon neutrality on carbon sinks in China has not yet been fully evaluated. In this study, we analyzed the effects of regional carbon-neutral PER policies, global climate change, and their coupled effects on China’s terrestrial gross primary productivity (GPP) by conducting numerical experiments using the weather research and forecasting model coupled with chemistry (WRF-Chem) and the moderate resolution imaging spectroradiometer photosynthesis algorithm (MODIS-PSN). We found that carbon-neutral PER policies could promote GPP growth in most regions of China in 2060, particularly during April and October, resulting in a total increase of at least 21.84 TgC compared to that in 2016, which offset the adverse effects of global climate change up to fourfold. The aerosol radiative effects drive GPP growth under carbon-neutral PER policies, primarily through an increase in daily minimum temperature during winter and an increase in shortwave radiation during other seasons. Our research highlights that reducing pollutant emissions enhances future potential for carbon sequestration, revealing positive feedback towards achieving the target of carbon neutrality.

Predicting the fundamental fluxes of an eddy-covariance station using machine learning methods

Monitoring tools are needed to maximise living systems' ability to mitigate emissions and adapt to changing environmental conditions. Therefore, it is important to be able to predict the fundamental fluxes in crops, in this case vineyards, such as sensible heat flux (H), latent heat flux (LE) and carbon dioxide flux (CO2), in order to know their capacity to adapt to the environmental effects of climate change. In this study, Linear Regression (LR), Elastic Net (EN) regression, K-Nearest Neighbours (KNN), Gaussian-Process (GP), Decision Tree (TREE) Regression, Random Forest (RF) Regression, XGBoost (XGB) Regression, Support Vector Regression (SVR) and Multi-layer Perceptron (MLP) models have been applied to predict fundamental fluxes of an eddy-covariance station from conventional meteorological parameters. These models reproduced well the estimations of three output parameters from the eddy-covariance station. The performance of each predictive model was evaluated using Root-Mean-Squared Error (RMSE), Mean Absolute Error (MAE), Mean Square Error (MSE), Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE), Mean Absolute Scaled Error (MASE) and the coefficient of determination (R2). The findings indicate that for the variable H, the GP model outperformed the SVR and all other models, achieving an R2 value of 0.99. Conversely, the SVR demonstrated superior performance for the variables LE and CO2, with R2 values of 0.96 for both. In summary, these findings suggest that the three models proposed show a robust performance in the prediction of the studied fluxes, underlining their versatility and adaptability to the various environmental conditions of the vineyard.

Can fiscal expenditure for agriculture mitigate the impact of climate change on agricultural production?

The profound impact of climate change on agricultural production, and the government’s fiscal expenditure for agriculture, is considered a crucial means to address this challenge. This study utilizes panel data from all prefecture-level cities in Heilongjiang Province from 2000 to 2020. Drawing upon the Cobb–Douglas production function, an economic climate model is constructed to empirically analyze the impact of climate change on grain yield in Heilongjiang Province. Furthermore, the role of fiscal expenditure for agriculture in mitigating the effects of climate change on grain yield is explored. Feasible Generalized Least Squares (FGLS) estimation is employed to address issues of “heteroscedasticity,” “autocorrelation within groups,” and “cross-sectional contemporaneous correlation” present in the model. The results indicate that climate change has a positive impact on rice and corn yields, while exhibiting a negative impact on wheat yield. The influence of climate change on crop yield is both linear and nonlinear. Specifically, temperature demonstrates a linear relationship with rice and corn yields, whereas precipitation shows a significant inverted U-shaped relationship with rice and corn yields. The impact of climate change on grain production in Heilongjiang Province varies significantly across regions. Fiscal expenditure for agriculture has a significant positive effect on the yield of major grain crops in Heilongjiang Province. In addressing the impact of climate change on grain production, agricultural fiscal expenditure enhances the positive effect of precipitation on rice and corn yields, while diminishing the positive impact of temperature on corn yield.

Severely degraded high mountain vegetation recovers under different levels of wild herbivore grazing pressure, 1991–2021

Context It is important to understand the way in which wild herbivore grazing affects decadal vegetation dynamics after cessation of unnatural disturbances, especially in a context of climate change. Aims We investigated the decadal effects of different grazing regimes on treeless subalpine vegetation recovery from stock grazing and burning, on sites of different environmental character and initial state. Methods At each of four sites, two fenced areas that excluded mammalian herbivores, two that allowed in only rabbits and two grazed control plots were monitored every 5 years between 1991 and 2021. General linear models were developed to explain variation in change over the 30 years in different cover types. The years in which peak and trough values occurred were also determined, as were the incidence and direction of differences between treatments in sites and years. Key results There was marked variation in change over 30 years between the sites and lifeforms. Exclusion of mammalian herbivores increased the slow rate of revegetation. There was little effect from rabbits by themselves. Unexpectedly, the cover of both short and tall herbs was not promoted by grazing exclusion. Short term climatic variation affected some cover types, with many peaks and troughs in the dry year of 2001, but it was not possible to disentangle decades scale climate change effects from the process of recovery after disturbance. Conclusions The slight increase in revegetation rates in the absence of native herbivores and rabbits does not justify culling. Restoration interventions appear to be unnecessary. The prospect of increasing fire incidence and deer numbers suggests that it is desirable to continue monitoring the plots.

Analysing district-level climate vulnerability pattern in Madhya Pradesh, India, based on agricultural and socio-economic indicators.

Indian agriculture transitioned from a food deficit sector to a food surplus following the Green Revolution. However, the continued progress of Indian agriculture has been hampered by climate change. This research explores the district-wise vulnerability in Madhya Pradesh, India, to climate change by assessing the composite vulnerability index using the agricultural vulnerability index (AVI) and socio-economic vulnerability index (SEVI). The study seeks to understand how agricultural and socio-economic factors lead to variations in vulnerability across districts and influence targeted adaptation and mitigation strategies. The trend analysis results present declining rainfall and inclining temperature from 1951 to 2021 in Madhya Pradesh, directly affecting the agricultural sector and human livelihood. The composite vulnerability index (CVI) results revealed that districts with low values (< 0.394), such as Burhanpur and Balaghat, demonstrate reduced susceptibility due to limited cultivation, low reliance on rainfall, lower drought susceptibility, and decreased population density. Districts such as Panna and Bhopal show moderate vulnerability (0.394-0.423), with lower fallow land, reduced rainfed agriculture, and socio-economic vulnerability. Extensive agriculture and marginalised workers' presence influence high vulnerability (0.423 to 0.456) in districts such as Tikamgarh and Indore. Districts like Barwani and Jhabua have the highest CVI values (> 0.456), indicating substantial susceptibility to climate impacts. The cluster analysis validates the results of the vulnerability index. The findings highlight the urgent need for tailored adaptation strategies to address the diverse agricultural and socio-economic indicators creating vulnerability in Madhya Pradesh. The study helps understand regional vulnerability patterns and provides evidence-based policy approaches for resilience to climate change effects.

Utilizing Machine Learning Framework to Evaluate the Effect of Climate Change on Maize and Soybean Yield

In recent years, climate change patterns and extreme weather events have adversely affected agricultural production and have raised concerns about its effect on crop yields. These changes can affect the crop yield in many ways including the changes in the length of the growing season, planting and harvest time windows, precipitation amount and frequency, and the growing degree days, etc. So, it is important to analyze the effect of climate change on yield variability for a better understanding of its effect on the crops. This study aims to analyze the historical monthly county-level data for the state of Ohio to quantify maize (Zea mays) and soybean (Glycine max) yield temporal variability and to study the impact of proposed climate change scenarios on the yield. Machine learning algorithms were used to model the effect of monthly temperature and precipitation levels on yield variability, and to study the effect of climate change scenarios on yield. In addition, yield prediction models were integrated with proposed climate change scenarios for higher and lower emissions scenarios to predict the maize and soybean yield for the year 2100. To model the effect of weather parameters on temporal yield variability, the Random Forest model outperformed with RMSE of 0.61 Mt/ha and R2 of 0.73 for maize and with RMSE of 0.21 Mt/ha, R2 of 0.64 for soybean crop. Maximum temperature for July which has a negative correlation with yield was found to be the most dominant parameter for maize yield followed by the precipitation in August, July, and June which have a positive correlation with maize yield. Precipitation in August was found to be the most dominant weather parameter for soybean yield followed by maximum temperature in July. Based on the projected average increase in Ohio’s temperature and precipitation levels alone, maize yield was predicted to drop by 13.2% or 18.5% respectively due to lower emissions and higher emissions climate change scenario of Ohio. Similarly, a 6.64% and a 9.63% drop is expected in the soybean yield by the year 2100 for both lower emissions and higher emissions climate change scenarios. In economic terms based on current commodity values, this is an astounding loss of 254.7 to 369.7 million USD for maize and 535.9 – 751.1 million USD for soybean crop to the state of Ohio.

Microbial and insect oils: A sustainable approach to functional lipid

AbstractThe increasing global population, coupled with the effects of climate change on agricultural activities has spurred a demand for sustainable food production to meet human needs. In response to this, there has been a growing interest in sustainable food production initiatives. One of such initiatives is harnessing microbial and insect lipids as valuable ingredients to address increase in demand for lipids across various sectors, including functional food, nutritional supplements, and biodiesel production. Over the last decades, there has been increasing scientific investigations exploring lipid from algae, microbes, and insects as alternatives to traditional agro‐ and marine‐based sources. This review, therefore, presents progress made in microbial and insect oils production, with emphasis on sustainability. Emerging extraction techniques, regulatory and safety requirements, and challenges that exist in the production and utilization of these new lipids are also discussed. The review shows that lipids from a wide range of oleaginous microorganisms and insect species have the potential to serve as a valuable ingredient for healthful food preparation. However, challenges such as cultural acceptance, lack of standardized regulations, high cost, and low yield associated with most emerging environmentally friendly extraction technologies continue to hinder widespread use or adoption of microbial and insect lipids on a global scale. These challenges call for innovations to reduce cost of production and improve lipids yield. So far, a substantial progress has been made in the utilization of readily available feedstocks such as industrial food wastes and sugar‐rich industrial wastewater to grow insects and microorganisms which will significantly reduce the processing costs.

Spatiotemporal variation in methylmercury and related water quality variables in a temperate river under highly dynamic hydrologic conditions

The understanding of the essential environmental factors affecting the spatiotemporal variation in methylmercury (MeHg) in river water is limited to date, despite its importance for predicting the effect of ongoing climate change on MeHg accumulation in freshwater ecosystems. This study aimed to explore the variation in MeHg concentration and related environmental factors in the downstream zone of the Yeongsan River under highly dynamic hydrologic conditions by using water quality and hydrologic data collected from 1997 to 2022, and Hg and MeHg data collected from 2017 to 2022. The mean concentration of unfiltered MeHg was 35.7 ± 13.7 pg L−1 (n = 24) in summer and 26.7 ± 7.43 pg L−1 (n = 24) in fall. Dissolved oxygen (DO), conductivity, nitrate, and dissolved organic carbon (DOC) were determined to be the most influential variables in terms of MeHg variation based on the partial least squares regression model, and their effects on the MeHg concentration were negative, except for DOC. Heatmaps representing the similarity distances between temporal trends of hydrologic and water quality variables were constructed to determine fundamental factors related to the time-based variations in DO, conductivity, nitrate, and DOC using a dynamic time warping algorithm. The heatmap cluster analysis showed that the temporal trends of these variables were closely related to rainfall variation rather than irradiance or water temperature. Overall, biogeochemical factors directly related to in situ methylation rate of Hg(II)—rather than transport of Hg(II) and MeHg from external sources—mainly control the spatiotemporal variation of MeHg in the downstream zone of the Yeongsan River.

Relationship between fine particulate matter concentration and winter monsoon in the tropics under the influence of climate change and topographic effects: A case study of Kaoping area, Taiwan, since 1959

Relationship between fine particulate matter concentration and winter monsoon in the tropics under the influence of climate change and topographic effects: A case study of Kaoping area, Taiwan, since 1959

A framework for climate change adaptation of port infrastructures

Adaptation of port infrastructures to climate change and sea level rise effects is highlighted as a key field among transportation systems’ lines of action for adaptation, given their highly exposed location in coastal areas and position as critical nodes in logistic chains and local, regional and national economies. The present work proposes an adaptation assessment framework that, based on a high-resolution compound climate risk assessment, identifies the main threats that climate change may pose to port performance, defines a set of optimized adaptation measures and characterizes constraints for implementation, and finally evaluates the applicability and effectiveness of these measures under diverse climate scenarios and different time frames. The framework is applied in a study case located in the northern coast of Spain. It is shown that the proposed methodology enables port managers and planners to develop tailor-fitted adaptation plans, providing tools to make them coherent with actual and future uncertain climate conditions.

Research on the critical role of clean energy for dual carbon targets

Dual-carbon targets typically refer to the goal of reducing greenhouse gas emissions to almost zero in order to address the challenges of climate change and global warming. Achieving the dual-carbon goal means taking significant steps to reduce carbon emissions, promoting the adoption of clean energy, improving energy efficiency, and adopting sustainable development practices to mitigate the effects of climate change. This study aims to assess the critical role of clean energy in achieving the dual carbon goals. This study is organized around the concept of dual carbon goals. These goals involve an integrated approach to combating climate change by significantly reducing greenhouse gas emissions to near-zero levels. The main objective is to address the challenges posed by climate change and global warming. This thesis will explore various strategies and approaches to achieve emission reductions. Clean energy plays a pivotal role in achieving the dual-carbon goal. The study focuses on the importance of clean energy sources such as renewable energy (e.g., wind, solar) in reducing carbon emissions. Sustainable development practices are mentioned as part of the approach to mitigating the effects of climate change. This suggests that the study could also explore the wider implications of dual carbon targets for sustainable development. This study used literature and descriptive research methods, relying on existing data, literature, and descriptive analysis to assess the current role of clean energy and how dual carbon targets could be achieved in the future.

A rapid approach to assessing the vulnerability of Mozambican fisheries’ species to climate change

Mozambique is amongst the most vulnerable of Western Indian Ocean (WIO] countries to the impacts of climate change on its marine fisheries. We used rapid assessment methods to evaluate sensitivity, exposure and vulnerability of fisheries species to climate change, appropriate for data-deficient, developing countries in the region. Species were selected based on their importance in industrial and artisanal fisheries’ landings, further prioritized by local experts. Species’ attributes likely to be sensitive to climate change were identified and scored, utilizing life history or biological characteristics. Sea Surface Temperature (SST] was the most prominent climate exposure factor and for which we could confidently predict likely future change. Most species had low or medium overall sensitivity to climate change, with only eight considered highly sensitive. Climate exposure (SST] scores were high off northern Mozambique, while the central and southern regions were generally of medium exposure. Ten species received a High vulnerability score, 14 were Medium, and 16 had a Low vulnerability score. The highly vulnerable species were all fishes, apart from one crustacean; 4 of the 9 were strongly estuarine-associated; the most vulnerable species was the parrotfish Scarus ghobban. This is the first attempt to use a rapid, semi-quantitative, specialist- and trait-based vulnerability assessment of the anticipated effect of climate change on marine fisheries species in the WIO. Challenges experienced were data paucity, limited resources, the large study area, and the complex oceanography of the region. However, a simple methodology was developed, derived from efforts elsewhere, and which can be used to undertake similar assessments for other WIO countries. Raised awareness of climate change among small-scale fishing communities is a necessity, combined with adaptation by promoting fisheries co-management. Also required is support from government to ensure that people can be flexible to change.

Large-Scale Test Of Extreme Hydrodynamic Conditions Over Coastal Salt Marshes

Hard coastal structures such as dikes covered with asphalt or placed block revetments have been widely used in the past for coastal protection in densely populated deltas around the world. Nonetheless, in recent years the effectiveness of hard structures has been questioned in light of the inevitable effects of climate change and their static nature. Decades of research on how salt marshes can play a role within a comprehensive coastal protection scheme suggest that these low environmental impact structures (Maza et al., 2015) might have the capability of dissipating wave energy and hence be technically and formally considered within hybrid coastal erosion and flood protection systems (Borsje et al., 2011). However, only very few studies investigated wave attenuation by real salt marsh vegetation in large-scale laboratories (Ghodoosipour et al., 2022; Maza et al., 2015; Möller et al., 2014) and none of them addressed extreme hydrodynamic design conditions in terms of wave energy and water levels. As a result of this knowledge gap, salt marshes in The Netherlands and all around the world have never been formally considered within the coastal flood protection systems and the underlying risk assessment. With this contribution our aim is to provide an overview of the first worldwide large-scale test focused on the interaction between a salt marsh (i.e. vegetation and shallow foreshore) and extreme hydrodynamic conditions, the adopted measurement techniques and the preliminary results in terms of wave damping, erosion and removed biomass.

A system dynamics approach for sustainable groundwater management considering climate change, inter-organizational relationships, and domestic water saving

This article uses system dynamic modeling to examine the relationship between water allocation from the Ilam dam and groundwater fluctuation, as well as the effects of climate change, changes in inter-organizational relationships, and water demand management on water allocation and groundwater level fluctuations. The results showed that agricultural water allocation has a direct effect on groundwater level fluctuations. In the first scenario, which examined the effects of climate change, the comparison of three climate change scenarios (SSP126, SSP245, and SSP585) was carried out. The results illustrated that with temperature increasing and precipitation decreasing occurred in SSP585, the groundwater drawdown increases about 0.8 m more than SSP126. The second scenario examined the effects of changes in inter-organizational relationships. Based on the results of centrality measures in the social network analysis method, it was found that the organizational power of the stakeholder organization in the agriculture sector is greater than the ones in the environment sector. This causes the allocation to the agriculture sector to be prioritized over the environment. This scenario was analyzed by assuming a change in organizational power and giving priority to the water allocation of the environmental sector. The results showed that environmental needs (maximum 0.3 MCM) were almost entirely met in the second scenario, compared to the basic scenario. Also, the decrease in agricultural water allocation has led to an increase in groundwater usage by farmers, resulting in a 20 cm drop in groundwater levels. Therefore, regarding the sustainable management of water resources, directing attention towards alternative livelihoods for farmers can contribute to environmental water rights and the remediation of aquifers. The third scenario examined the effects of water demand management. The results showed that saving 20–25% of water in the domestic sector can reduce 40–50 cm maximum groundwater drawdown which align with sustainable groundwater management.