Inflations Research Articles

Determinants of Poverty: Evidence from Morocco through ARDL Approach

Since gaining independence, Morocco has made a commitment to achieving goals aimed at achieving a high rate of economic growth in order to raise the standard of living for its people. As such, this ongoing commitment is based on a strategy that aims to lower the poverty rate and provide a dignified life for those who are vulnerable. However, it is crucial to comprehend the factors that contribute to poverty in order to implement an effective strategy for combating it. In this regard, this article aims to analyze poverty in Morocco through an economic study of the effects of economic growth, education, inflation, and unemployment on the evolution of poverty in Morocco. This study examined the intricate connections between economic growth, inflation, unemployment, and poverty in the Moroccan environment using the ARDL method. Poverty and education are related, both immediately and over time. Initially, the dependent variable and the independent variables do not have a long-term relationship. On the other hand, economic expansion has a statistically significant short-term effect on reducing poverty. however, after making changes to the analysis model, the dependent and independent variables have a significant long-term association. These findings can concentrate efforts on the areas that are most crucial for lowering poverty and improving the standard of living for vulnerable people by identifying the factors that have a substantial impact on poverty. This study contributes to the scientific understanding of the factors influencing poverty in Morocco by using an economic approach.

THE EFFECT OF INFLATION, INTEREST RATE AND COVID-19 PANDEMIC ON RUPIAH EXCHANGE RATE 2009-2023

This study aims to determine the effect of inflation, interest rates, and Covid-19 pandemic on rupiah exchange rate during the period from 2009 to 2023. This research utilizes secondary data obtained from Bank Indonesia and employs multiple linear regression analysis method with the assistance of SPSS software version 29.0. The research findings indicate that inflation has a positive and significant effect on the exchange rate of the rupiah, while interest rates have a negative and significant effect on the exchange rate of the rupiah. Additionally, the Covid-19 pandemic (as a dummy variable) has a positive and significant effect on the exchange rate of the rupiah. The Coefficient of Determination (R2) is 0.566, meaning that 56.6% of the variability in the exchange rate of the rupiah can be explained by inflation, interest rates, and the Covid-19 pandemic. Furthermore, the variable most dominant in influencing the exchange rate of the rupiah is inflation, accounting for 39.9%

From swelling prices to shrinking sizes: evaluating the ripple effects of inflation and shrinkflation on the economic growth of BIPS countries

ABSTRACT This paper pioneers constructing a shrinkflation variable from the inflation rate function and integrates it into a model to assess its influence on economic growth. It also explores the changing cause-and-effect relationship between economic growth, inflation, and shrinkflation. The findings indicate that shrinkflation’s influence on economic growth parallels that of natural inflation, with both exerting a significant negative impact on growth. Hence, the effect of shrinkflation on growth mirrors that of natural inflation, akin to how words imitate natural sounds, as proposed by the bow wow theory. Furthermore, the findings show that both inflation and shrinkflation have a significant predictive effect on economic growth over time, and that causal spill-over varies across BIPS countries. Thus, the economic uncertainty in BIPS nations during the study period was partly due to inflationary conditions and partly due to shrinking commodity sizes.

Tourniquet Use and Local Tissue Concentrations of Cefazolin During Total Knee Arthroplasty

Prophylactic administration of antibiotics before skin incision is an important component in the prevention of periprosthetic joint infection in arthroplasty surgery. For antibiotics to be effective, the local tissue concentration (LTC) must exceed the minimum inhibitory concentration of typical infecting organisms; however, the LTC of cefazolin during arthroplasty is poorly understood. To compare the systemic concentration of cefazolin in serum with the LTC in fat, synovium, and bone during primary total knee arthroplasty (TKA) while assessing the effect of tourniquet inflation. This prospective randomized clinical trial was conducted from March 1, 2022, to June 30, 2023, in patients undergoing TKA at a single academic center. Total knee arthroplasty with or without a limb tourniquet. Systemic blood and local tissues from the surgical site (fat, synovium, and bone) were harvested at regular intervals during the surgery. The primary outcome was the LTC of cefazolin, quantified using the liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry technique. A total of 59 patients were included in the study, with 29 in the tourniquet group (mean [SD] age, 69.3 [9.6] years; 23 [79.3%] female) and 30 in the no tourniquet group (mean [SD] age, 69.9 [9.7] years; 21 [70.0%] female). In patients undergoing TKA without a tourniquet, the mean concentration of cefazolin in serum was 71.9 μg/mL (95% CI, 66.4-77.5 μg/mL), whereas the mean LTCs were 13.9 μg/g (95% CI, 12.1-15.7 μg/g) in fat, 27.7 μg/g (95% CI, 24.3-31.0 μg/g) in synovium, and 17.7 μg/g (95% CI, 14.8-20.5 μg/g) in bone. For patients undergoing TKA with a tourniquet, the mean concentration of cefazolin in serum was 72.0 μg/mL (95% CI, 66.3-77.7 μg/mL), and the mean LTCs were 9.9 μg/g (95% CI, 8.7-11.1 μg/g) in fat, 21.8 μg/g (95% CI, 18.7-25.0 μg/g) in synovium, and 13.0 μg/g (95% CI, 10.8-15.2 μg/g) in bone. The use of a tourniquet resulted in significantly lower mean LTCs by 60 minutes after cefazolin infusion (10.8 μg/g [95% CI, 9.1-12.4 μg/g] vs 16.9 μg/g [95% CI, 14.1-19.6 μg/g], P = .001 in fat; 18.9 μg/g [95% CI, 14.1-23.6 μg/g] vs 25.8 μg/g [95% CI, 21.4-30.3 μg/g], P = .03 in synovium; and 11.8 μg/g [95% CI, 9.3-14.2 μg/g] vs 19.4 μg/g [95% CI, 14.5-24.4 μg/g], P = .007 in bone). In this randomized clinical trial, the concentration of cefazolin was lower in local tissues (fat, synovium, and bone) than in systemic blood, and the use of a limb tourniquet further significantly reduced these concentrations. Although the current prophylactic dosing regimen for cefazolin provides sufficient serum concentrations, the levels in the periarticular tissue during TKA may be insufficient to prevent periprosthetic joint infection. ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT05604157.

Building the Empirical Puzzle on Impact of Macroeconomic Determinants on GST Revenue: An Empirical Investigation via ARDL Bound Test Perspective

ABSTRACTThe revenue mobilization remains a challenge for many countries, especially developing countries such as India. Therefore, this study explores the macroeconomic determinants of Goods and Service Tax (GST) revenue of the government in India as GST constitutes a major share in the Own Tax Revenue (OTR) of the government in India. The current study has employed the Auto Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model to examine the macroeconomic determinants of GST taxation revenue of the government in India. The results reveal that foreign direct investment, depreciation in the exchange rate and foreign exchange reserves have a favorable impact on the GST revenue of the government in India. Furthermore, the gross fiscal deficits of the government and inflation have a detrimental effect on the GST revenue collection of the government in India. The results of the study are supported by the Tanzi effect and the Tanzi–Olivera effect for the detrimental effect of inflation and gross fiscal deficit on the GST revenue of the government in India. The current study has major policy implications for the government, policymakers, and researchers. The empirical results illustrates that the government may put a stringent check on inflation and gross fiscal deficit of the country to improve their GST collections. Moreover, the government should try to focus on foreign direct investment, trade openness, and foreign exchange reserve in India to increase their GST revenue. Meanwhile, the current study can be used as a base for conducting future studies at national and international levels for examining the determinants of other taxation revenue of the government by incorporating other country specific variables. This study may act as a novel contribution to the available literature on the macroeconomic determinants of taxation revenue in India. To the knowledge, it will be the first study in India to especially explore the determinants of GST revenue of the government in India. However, the findings of the study need to be generalize in future by incorporating a larger sample size as GST is still in its introductory phase in India.

The influence of reward and loss outcomes after free- and forced-tasks on voluntary task choice

In four experiments, we investigated the impact of outcomes and processing mode (free versus forced) on subsequent voluntary task-switching behavior. Participants freely chose between two tasks or were forced to perform one, and the feedback they received randomly varied after correct performance (reward or no-reward; loss or no-loss). In general, we reasoned that the most recently applied task goal is usually the most valued one, leading people to prefer task repetitions over switches. However, the task values might be additionally biased by previous outcomes and the previous processing mode. Indeed, negatively reinforcing tasks with no-reward or losses generally resulted in more subsequent switches. Additionally, participants demonstrated a stronger attachment to free- compared to forced-tasks, as indicated by more switches when the previous task was forced, suggesting that people generally value free over forced-choice task goals. Moreover, the reward manipulation had a greater influence on switching behavior following free- compared to forced-tasks in Exp. 1 and Exp. 3, suggesting a stronger emphasis on evaluating rewarding outcomes associated with free-task choices. However, this inflationary effect on task choice seemed to be limited to reward and situations where task choice and performance more strongly overlap. Specifically, there was no evidence that switching behavior was differentially influenced after free-and forced-task as a function of losses (Exp. 2) or reward when task choice and task performance were separated (Exp. 4). Overall, the results provide new insights into how the valuation of task goals based on choice freedom and outcome feedback can influence voluntary task choices.

Money illusion in retirement savings with a minimum guarantee

We investigate the impact of money illusion on the investment strategy and retirement outcomes of pre-retirees. Money illusion refers to the tendency of individuals to overlook the effects of inflation and focus on nominal rather than real terms. We solve and compare the optimal investment strategies for a pre-retiree who exhibits money illusion and aims to maximize the expected power utility of wealth at retirement, subject to a minimum guarantee constraint. While money illusion leads to welfare losses, implementing a minimum guarantee helps suppress these losses. However, guarantee constraints set under money illusion are ineffective in meeting inflation-adjusted constraints. Our findings emphasize the significant impact of money illusion on pre-retirees' investment strategy and retirement outcomes in the form of utility loss and the risk of falling short of the minimum guarantee.

Analysis of the Influence of Inflation on Economic Growth in Indonesia: Panel Data Regression Approach

Inflation and economic growth are two macroeconomic phenomena that are interrelated and have significant implications for the stability and economic welfare of a country. Inflation, which is measured as the general increase in the price of goods and services over time, can affect various aspects of the economy, including people's purchasing power, investment levels, and consumption decisions. This study uses a quantitative approach with a panel data regression method to analyze the influence of inflation on economic growth in Indonesia using the Eviews 12 application. The results of this study indicate that the influence of inflation on economic growth is not strong enough to be considered statistically significant in the period analyzed. Although there was a small positive effect of inflation on economic growth, these results showed that inflation was not the main factor affecting economic growth in Indonesia during the period. Therefore, policymakers must consider other factors that may have a more significant influence in formulating effective economic strategies.

Effect of inflation and exchange rates on stock prices in banking sub-sector companies listed on The Indonesian Stock Exchange

Purpose: This study aims to determine the influence of inflation variables and exchange rates on share prices. Method: This study used quantitative methods. The population in this study was 47 banking subsector companies listed on the Indonesian Stock Exchange for the 2019-2023 period. The sample in this study comprised 15 companies with 75 financial reports. This research uses classical assumption tests such as the normality test, multicollinearity test, autocorrelation test and heteroscedasticity test, coefficient analysis, coefficient of determination analysis and hypothhesis testing consisting of the t test and f test. Results: The results of this research show that inflation has a partial and significant effect on share prices in banking subsector companies listed on the Indonesian Stock Exchange for the 2019-2023 period because it has a sig. 0.000 < 0.05, and the exchange rate has a significant effect on share prices in banking subsector companies listed on the Indonesian Stock Exchange for the 2019-2023 period because it has a sig value. 0.000 < 0.05. Simultaneously, the effect on share prices in banking subsector companies listed on the Indonesian Stock Exchange for the 2019-2023 period beccause they have sig. equal to 0.000 < 0.05. Limitations: The object of the research is only banking sub-sector companies listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange for the 2019–2023 period and only includes inflation, exchange rates, and stock prices Contribution: This research aims to contribute to science at the Faculty of Economics and Business, provide reading materials in the library of the University of PGRI Palembang about inflation and exchange rates on the stock prices of companies in the banking sub-sector on the Indonesia Stock Exchange for the 2019-2023 period, and increase the company's insight into the development of stock prices related to inflation and exchange rates.

Inflation effects of oil and gas prices in the UK: Symmetries and asymmetries

The United Kingdom is among the countries experiencing a cost-of-living crisis believed to be influenced, at least in part, by the dynamics of the international oil and gas markets. To this end, this study aims to achieve to achieve two objectives. Firstly, the dynamic association between the UK's inflation and oil and gas prices is examined. Further, the study examines whether the response of the UK's inflation to energy price dynamics is (a)symmetric. This study adopts wavelet coherency to determine the dynamic co-movement between energy prices and inflation. In addition, the dynamic simulated autoregressive distributed lag model (DS-ARDL) is used to examine the dynamic response of inflation to energy price changes. The estimation results reveal a symmetric response of inflation to gas price shocks. Further, the response of inflation to oil price shocks is asymmetric. Interestingly, the effect of gas price dynamics passes more strongly to inflation than to oil price dynamics. These findings suggest that a more diversified energy mix could help prevent substantial energy price pass-through to inflationary pressures.

A Study on the Impact of Inflation, Poverty, and Unemployment on Income Inequality at Cermin Beach, Serdang Bedagai Regency

One of the causes of income inequality is the large number of poor and unemployed people. The relationship between inflation, poverty, unemployment and income inequality shows a continuous interaction of these three factors. The aim is to determine the effect of inflation, poverty and unemployment on income inequality in the district. Mirror Beach, Kab. Serdang Bedagai. The data used is secondary data obtained from the Central Statistics Agency (BPS) for the 2019-2023 time period. The analytical method used is quantitative). The software used for analysis is spss 26.0. The research results show that the inflation variable has an effect on income inequality. The poverty variable has no effect on income inequality, the unemployment variable has an effect on income inequality and together the inflation, poverty and unemployment variables have a significant effect on income inequality in the district. Cermin Beach, Kab. Serdang Bedagai.

Functional Oil Price Expectations Shocks and Inflation

ABSTRACTThis paper investigates the inflation effects of oil price expectations shocks constructed as functional shocks, that is, as shifts in the entire oil futures term structure (both standard and risk‐adjusted). The latter are then included in a vector autoregressive model with exogenous variables (VARX) to examine the US case. Counterfactual analysis is also carried out to investigate second‐round effects on inflation through the inflation expectations channel. These are found to be significant, in contrast to earlier studies based on standard oil price shocks. Additional nonlinear local projections including a shock decomposition exercise show that inflation and inflation expectations are primarily driven by changes in the curvature (level and slope) factor when the latter are anchored (unanchored). These findings provide useful information to policymakers concerning the impact of oil price expectations on inflation and inflation expectations.

Impact of Sharia Stock Prices: A Study on Inflation, Exchange Rate, BI Rate, and Money Supply

This study aims to examine the effect of inflation, exchange rate, BI Rate, and the amount of money in circulation on Islamic stocks in companies listed on the Jakarta Islamic Index (JII). This study uses a sample of changes in the inflation rate, changes in the exchange rate, changes in the BI rate, changes in the money supply, and Islamic stock prices. This study uses secondary data, namely reports of changes in index obtained from the official website of the Indonesian Stock Exchange and the website of the Central Statistics Agency. With the results obtained in this study, inflation has a significant negative effect on Sharia Stock Prices, Exchange Rates have a significant negative effect on Sharia Stock Prices, amount of money in circulation has a significant positive effect on the price of Sharia shares. Inflation, Exchange Rate, BI Rate, and Money Supply have a simultaneous effect on Sharia Stock Prices in Companies Listed in the Jakarta Islamic Index. Managerial implications, especially for investment managers and fund managers in the Islamic capital market. Knowing the influence of inflation, exchange rates, BI interest rates, and money supply on Islamic stock prices allows managers to make better and more strategic investment decisions.

What is it good for? On the inflationary effects of military conflicts

Military conflicts and wars affect the development of a country in various dimensions. Rising inflation rates are a potentially important economic effect associated with conflict. High inflation can undermine investment, weigh on private consumption, and threaten macroeconomic stability. Furthermore, these effects are not necessarily restricted to the locality of the conflict but can also spill over to other countries. Therefore, to understand how conflict affects the economy and to make a more comprehensive assessment of the costs of armed conflict, it is important to take inflationary effects into account. To disentangle the conflict-inflation nexus and to quantify this relationship, we conduct a panel analysis for 151 countries over the period 1950–2019. To capture indirect inflationary effects, we construct a distance-based spillover index. In general, the results of our analysis confirm a statistically significant positive direct association between conflicts and inflation rates. Furthermore, we document a statistically significant positive indirect association between conflicts and inflation rates in uninvolved countries. These findings are robust across various model specifications. Moreover, our results indicate that conflict-induced inflation is not driven solely by the increase in the money supply.

THE IMPACT OF THE RECIPROCAL RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN EXCHANGE RATES AND INTEREST RATES ON THE BOND MARKET USING THE SVAR MODEL FOR CHINA FOR THE PERIOD FROM (2000-2020)

This study aims to illustrate the effect of the reciprocal relationship between the exchange rates and interest rates on the bond market by using the SVAR model for China during (2000 -2020), this is to analyze and measure the relationship between exchange rates and interest rates and showing their impact through changes in the bond index and monitoring the changes that occur in their traded prices in the financial markets. This study is based on three standard model estimations. The first model includes the effect of interest rates and inflation on the exchange rates. The second model shows the effect of the exchange rates and money supply on the interest rate. The third model includes the effect of exchange and interest rates on the bond index. The Structural Vector Auto Regression Model (SVAR) was used to test the long-term relationship between the variables of the study, in addition to the variance Decomposition analysis and the analysis of the Impulse response functions (IRF). The results showed that the reciprocal relationship between the exchange rates and interest rates is a positive inverse relationship, and the effect is in both directions. In other words, when the prevailing interest rate rises in the country, it leads to an appreciation in the value of the currency due to the increase in demand for the currency of that country, resulting in a depreciation in its exchange rate and conversely. In addition, the results indicated that the bond index is sensitive to any shock or any unexpected change in exchange rate and interest rate and that these shocks manifest in the short term and stabilize in the long term.

Determinants of Unemployment: Empirical Evidence from Indonesia

Indonesia faces the challenge of a rapidly increasing labor force that is not proportional to the number of jobs available, resulting in unemployment. This study examines the effect of economic growth, inflation, and minimum wage on unemployment in 34 provinces in Indonesia from 2018 to 2022. This research uses secondary data from the Central Bureau of Statistics and Bank Indonesia. The data processing method uses panel data regression with the Fixed Effect model. The results of the analysis show that economic growth and inflation have a negative and significant relationship with unemployment in Indonesia. In contrast, the provincial minimum wage has a positive and significant relationship with unemployment in Indonesia.

The impact of national savings on economic development: a focused study on the ten poorest countries in Sub-Saharan Africa

The purpose of this study is to examine the impact of national savings on economic development, as measured by the Human Development Index (HDI), Inequality-adjusted HDI (iHDI), and Multidimensional Poverty Index (MPI), in ten of the poorest countries in Sub-Saharan Africa. The study employs a sequential Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) analysis to address potential endogeneity issues and account for the dynamic nature of the relationships, covering the period from 2009 to 2019. The findings reveal a complex relationship between national savings and the selected development indicators. While national savings exhibit positive impacts on HDI and iHDI, the results are not consistently statistically significant across all the sequential models. However, the analysis suggests that national savings have a positive influence on reducing multidimensional poverty, as measured by MPI, particularly when effectively channeled into productive investments. The study also highlights the significant positive impact of government expenditure and foreign direct investment (FDI) on human development, underscoring the importance of strategic public investments and foreign capital. The results suggest that while national savings are crucial, their effective utilization is essential for enhancing human development indices. Strategic investments in public goods and foreign capital are also important. The mixed effects of inflation and official development assistance (ODA) emphasize the need for stable economic policies and effective utilization of foreign aid. The modest positive impact of institutional quality suggests that improvements in governance and institutional frameworks can contribute to human development. The findings underscore the need for policies promoting financial inclusion, efficient public expenditure, foreign direct investment, and stable macroeconomic conditions to leverage national savings for economic development. The study’s findings provide valuable insights for policymakers in Sub-Saharan Africa, highlighting the need for comprehensive strategies that leverage national savings, public expenditure, and foreign investment to drive sustainable economic development and poverty reduction.

Climate threat and price stability: A case study of Belize

AbstractIn recent years, there have been calls for policy makers to do more to fight climate change. Indeed, there are growing concerns that climate could exert a serious detrimental impact on financial stability, and thus the wider economy. Empirically, a limited number of studies have highlighted the inflationary effects of climate‐related variables. This study is an attempt to contribute to this literature. More specifically, the article investigates the dynamic inflationary effect of climate in a case study of Belize. Results derived from quarterly data, over the period 1994–2019, and local linear projections suggest that inflation responds positively and significantly to temperature and rainfall shocks. Further disaggregation of inflation into its subindices reveals that this increase in inflation is mainly driven by the effect of climate on food, alcohol and tobacco, household, hospitality, and other goods and services inflation. The findings remain robust even when accounting for temperature and rainfall deviations from historical means. The results suggest that, while inflation control might not be a core element of monetary policy in Belize, policy makers should be aware that these climate‐related effects may have ramifications for the Belize economy.

Effects of globalization and financial inclusion on energy intensity: The case of emerging economies

This research examines the effects of globalization and financial inclusion on the energy intensity of selected sixteen emerging economies by controlling the effects of economic growth, inflation, and stock market capitalization. The study period covers twenty-two years, starting from 2000 and ending in 2021, providing a complete perspective on the changing dynamics inside these countries. The study employs the novel technique of Method of Moment Quantile Regression (MMQR) to empirically assess the interlinkages between the employed factors on energy intensity. The findings suggest that when economies expand, engage in global trade, and encounter inflationary pressures, they tend to exhibit remarkable changes in energy intensity. The results find negative effects of globalization, GDP, and inflation on energy intensity. In contrast, a positive correlation exists between financial inclusion, stock market capitalization, and energy intensity. Policies must be designed with the objective of harnessing the advantages of globalization in order to enhance energy efficiency, encompassing elements such as technology transfer and regulatory harmonization. Concurrently, it is imperative to establish a sound relationship between financial inclusion and the expansion of stock markets, while also integrating sustainable energy practices.

Memory inflation: Beyond the acute phase of viral infection.

Memory inflation is confirmed as the most commonly dysregulation of host immunity with antigen-independent manner in mammals after viral infection. By generating large numbers of effector/memory and terminal differentiated effector memory CD8+ T cells with diminished naïve subsets, memory inflation is believed to play critical roles in connecting the viral infection and the onset of multiple diseases. Here, we reviewed the current understanding of memory inflated CD8+ T cells in their distinct phenotypic features that different from exhausted subsets; the intrinsic and extrinsic roles in regulating the formation of memory inflation; and the key proteins in maintaining the expansion and proliferation of inflationary populations. More importantly, based on the evidences from both clinic and animal models, we summarized the potential mechanisms of memory inflation to trigger autoimmune neuropathies, such as Guillain-Barré syndrome and multiple sclerosis; the correlations of memory inflation between tumorigenesis and resistance of tumour immunotherapies; as well as the effects of memory inflation to facilitate vascular disease progression. To sum up, better understanding of memory inflation could provide us an opportunity to beyond the acute phase of viral infection, and shed a light on the long-term influences of CD8+ T cell heterogeneity in dampen host immune homeostasis.