Effective Mitigation Policies Research Articles

Impacts of air pollutants from fire and non-fire emissions on the regional air quality in Southeast Asia

Abstract. Severe haze events in Southeast Asia caused by particulate pollution have become more intense and frequent in recent years. Widespread biomass burning occurrences and particulate pollutants from human activities other than biomass burning play important roles in degrading air quality in Southeast Asia. In this study, numerical simulations have been conducted using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model coupled with a chemistry component (WRF-Chem) to quantitatively examine the contributions of aerosols emitted from fire (i.e., biomass burning) versus non-fire (including fossil fuel combustion, and road dust, etc.) sources to the degradation of air quality and visibility over Southeast Asia. These simulations cover a time period from 2002 to 2008 and are driven by emissions from (a) fossil fuel burning only, (b) biomass burning only, and (c) both fossil fuel and biomass burning. The model results reveal that 39 % of observed low-visibility days (LVDs) can be explained by either fossil fuel burning or biomass burning emissions alone, a further 20 % by fossil fuel burning alone, a further 8 % by biomass burning alone, and a further 5 % by a combination of fossil fuel burning and biomass burning. Analysis of an 24 h PM2.5 air quality index (AQI) indicates that the case with coexisting fire and non-fire PM2.5 can substantially increase the chance of AQI being in the moderate or unhealthy pollution level from 23 to 34 %. The premature mortality in major Southeast Asian cities due to degradation of air quality by particulate pollutants is estimated to increase from ∼ 4110 per year in 2002 to ∼ 6540 per year in 2008. In addition, we demonstrate the importance of certain missing non-fire anthropogenic aerosol sources including anthropogenic fugitive and industrial dusts in causing urban air quality degradation. An experiment of using machine learning algorithms to forecast the occurrence of haze events in Singapore is also explored in this study. All of these results suggest that besides minimizing biomass burning activities, an effective air pollution mitigation policy for Southeast Asia needs to consider controlling emissions from non-fire anthropogenic sources.

Coastal Communities and Climate Change: A Case Study in Gujarat, India

Developing countries are highly vulnerable to climate change [1,2]. They have less coping capacity to deal with its negative impacts. India is one of the most vulnerable countries in South Asia. It urgently requires adaptation and mitigation measures to cope with possible impacts arising from extreme weather events due to climate change. Indian cities, particularly the coastal ones, are at a comparatively greater risk as their population is likely to grow rapidly and may reach 500 million over the next 50 years [3]. The assessment of climate change impacts and adaptability both at the macro region and micro levels is necessary to create effective mitigation policies

PM2.5 mitigation in China: Socioeconomic determinants of concentrations and differential control policies

Elucidating the key impact factors on PM2.5 concentrations is crucial to formulate effective mitigation policies. In this study, we employed an extended Stochastic Impacts by Regression on Population Affluence and Technology (STIRPAT) model to identify the socioeconomic determinants of PM2.5 concentrations for 12 different regions and across China. The evaluation was based on a balanced panel dataset integrating long-term satellite-derived PM2.5 concentrations and socio-economic data in China from 1999 to 2011. Empirical results indicate that the influencing factors can be ranked in descending order of importance as: proportion of secondary sector of the economy, GDP per capita, urbanization, population, energy intensity, and proportion of tertiary sector. Proportion of secondary sector is the greatest contribution to increasing PM2.5 concentrations, especially for heavily polluted regions. GDP per capita is secondary in importance, and its impact is weakened by the existence of an EKC relationship between GDP per capita and PM2.5 concentrations. Therefore, PM2.5 pollution is an economic development mode problem, rather than a general economic development problem. The impact of urbanization varies across regions; while promoting urbanization will be conducive to decreased PM2.5 concentrations in Northwest China and Northeast China, it will contribute to increased PM2.5 concentrations in other regions. Population and energy intensity are significant in most regions, but neither are decisive factors because of the small absolute value of their coefficients. Finally, different combinations of mitigation policies are proposed for different regions in this study to meet the mitigation targets.

Greenhouse gas impacts of different modality style classes using latent class travel behavior model

This study analyzed the interconnections between urban structure and socioeconomic, demographic and lifestyle variables and direct ground transport greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in the Helsinki metropolitan region in Finland by using a latent class choice model (LCCM). The aim of the study was to identify and improve our understanding of the latent modality styles which guide people's everyday travel choices, and the resulting GHG implications. The GHG implications for different modality style groups are particularly interesting, since such analysis has not been included in previous studies. This study used the transport survey of the Helsinki Region Transport (HSL) from 2012, including over 17,000 trips, and consisted of two parts: first, the population was divided into classes based on latent class analysis, and secondly, the mode choices and GHG emissions were modelled for each class. Seven modality style groups were defined with strongly varying GHG impacts and travel profiles. According to the class specific choice modelling the probabilities of selecting different modes also varied significantly. The study offers new information for designing effective mitigation policies for different types of modality style groups. For example, car-oriented groups would benefit from more fuel-efficient vehicles and vehicles with alternative power sources, whereas the multimodal traveler could be more receptive to policies promoting cycling and public transport. Overall, the study depicts the potential of the latent class method to study the emissions caused by heterogeneous populations and to search for efficient GHG mitigation possibilities.

Using radiocarbon to constrain black and organic carbon aerosol sources in Salt Lake City

AbstractBlack carbon (BC) and organic carbon (OC) aerosols are important components of fine particulate matter (PM2.5) in polluted urban environments. Quantifying the contribution of fossil fuel and biomass combustion to BC and OC concentrations is critical for developing and validating effective air quality control measures and climate change mitigation policy. We used radiocarbon (14C) to measure fossil and contemporary biomass contributions to BC and OC at three locations in Salt Lake City, Utah, USA, during 2012–2014, including during winter inversion events. Aerosol filters were analyzed with the Swiss_4S thermal‐optical protocol to isolate BC. We measured fraction modern (fM) of BC and total carbon in PM2.5 with accelerator mass spectrometry and derived the fM of OC using isotope mass balance. Combined with 14C information of end‐member composition, our data set of 31 14C aerosol measurements provided a baseline of the fossil and contemporary biomass components of carbonaceous aerosol. We show that fossil fuels were the dominant source of carbonaceous aerosol during winter, contributing 88% (80–98%) of BC and 58% (48–69%) of OC. While the concentration of both BC and OC increased during inversion events, the relative source contributions did not change. The sources of BC also did not vary throughout the year, while OC had a considerably higher contemporary biomass component in summer at 62% (49–76%) and was more variable. Our results suggest that in order to reduce PM2.5 levels in Salt Lake City to meet national standards, a more stringent policy targeting mobile fossil fuel sources may be necessary.

Bottom-up approach for downscaling CO2 emissions in Taiwan: robustness analysis and policy implications

The roles and responsibilities of cities in CO2 mitigation have drawn increasing attention in recent years. To facilitate optimal design of effective mitigation policies, it is important for city authorities to understand the magnitudes and sources of their CO2 emissions, and their relative shares of emissions at a higher spatial level. Although several studies estimate CO2 emissions at the city level, the robustness of these estimates and their linkage to emissions at a higher level remains unclear. This kind of localized information on emissions is important for coordination of climate policies at different spatial scales. The study aims to fill a gap in understanding by building a systematic bottom-up approach for estimating urban CO2 emissions and offering a consistency check with IPCC top–down estimates. Using Taiwan as a case study, we display the geographic distribution of CO2 emissions. The significance and implications of the downscaling CO2 emissions are indicated accordingly.

Determinants of flood risk mitigation strategies at household level: a case of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) province, Pakistan

Pakistan is one of the most adversely affected countries by climate-related extreme events such as floods owing to its geographical and climatic conditions. Over the last two decades, frequency and severity of flood events have been increased and has adversely affected the livelihood and well-being of millions of people in Pakistan. The development of effective mitigation policies requires a clear understanding of the impacts and local responses to extreme events, which is quite limited in Pakistan. This study used a dataset of 600 households collected through face-to-face interviews from two districts of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province that were severely affected from 2010 floods. The correlation and probit model methods are used to assess the study objectives. The findings of the study revealed that elevated ground floor, foundation strengthening, construction of house with reinforced material and precautionary savings were the main adaptation measures adopted at household level. The results from the probit model showed that gender, age, location, monthly income, family size, house ownership, disability, and education influence the households’ choices of mitigation strategies. The study further indicated that adoption of mitigation strategies at household level is constrained by several factors, i.e., financial constraint, lack of early warning system, lack of land use planning and inadequate resources. Further mitigation strategies also varied across different groups of households based on education, age, and income. Additionally the study discovered that the local policies on disaster management need to be improved to address the barriers to the adoption of advanced level adaptation measures at the household level such as advanced level early warning system, flood forecasting and dissemination of updated information and support, house building codes, infrastructure building practices, and adequate spatial planning.

Assessing Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Health Co-Benefits: A Structured Review of Lifestyle-Related Climate Change Mitigation Strategies.

This is the first structured review to identify and summarize research on lifestyle choices that improve health and have the greatest potential to mitigate climate change. Two literature searches were conducted on: (1) active transport health co-benefits, and (2) dietary health co-benefits. Articles needed to quantify both greenhouse gas emissions and health or nutrition outcomes resulting from active transport or diet changes. A data extraction tool (PRISMA) was created for article selection and evaluation. A rubric was devised to assess the biases, limitations and uncertainties of included articles. For active transport 790 articles were retrieved, nine meeting the inclusion criteria. For diet 2524 articles were retrieved, 23 meeting the inclusion criteria. A total of 31 articles were reviewed and assessed using the rubric, as one article met the inclusion criteria for both active transport and diet co-benefits. Methods used to estimate the effect of diet or active transport modification vary greatly precluding meta-analysis. The scale of impact on health and greenhouse gas emissions (GHGE) outcomes depends predominately on the aggressiveness of the diet or active transport scenario modelled, versus the modelling technique. Effective mitigation policies, infrastructure that supports active transport and low GHGE food delivery, plus community engagement are integral in achieving optimal health and GHGE outcomes. Variation in culture, nutritional and health status, plus geographic density will determine which mitigation scenario(s) best suit individual communities.

Assessing the Fragility of Global Trade

Anecdotal evidence suggests the existence of specific choke points in the global trade network revealed especially after natural disasters (e.g. hard drive components and Thailand flooding, Japanese auto components post-Fukushima, etc.). Using a highly disaggregated international trade database we assess the spillover effects of supply shocks from the import of specific goods. Our goal is to identify inherent vulnerabilities arising from the composition of a country’s import basket and to propose effective mitigation policies. First, using network analysis tools we develop a methodology for evaluating and ranking the supply fragility of individual traded goods. Next, we create a country-level measure to determine each country’s supply shock vulnerability based on the composition of their individual import baskets. This measure evaluates the potential negative supply shock spillovers from the import of each good.

Assessing the Fragility of Global Trade: The Impact of Localized Supply Shocks Using Network Analysis

Anecdotal evidence suggests the existence of specific choke points in the global trade network revealed especially after natural disasters (e.g. hard drive components and Thailand flooding, Japanese auto components post-Fukushima, etc.). Using a highly disaggregated international trade database we assess the spillover effects of supply shocks from the import of specific goods. Our goal is to identify inherent vulnerabilities arising from the composition of a country’s import basket and to propose effective mitigation policies. First, using network analysis tools we develop a methodology for evaluating and ranking the supply fragility of individual traded goods. Next, we create a country-level measure to determine each country’s supply shock vulnerability based on the composition of their individual import baskets. This measure evaluates the potential negative supply shock spillovers from the import of each good.

Decoding the effect of socioeconomic transitions on carbon dioxide emissions: Analysis framework and application in megacity Chongqing from inland China

Understanding the impact of dramatic socioeconomic transitions on soaring CO2 emissions is essential for developing targeted and effective CO2 mitigation policies. Taking Chongqing as a representative case in inland China, we proposed an analysis framework to evaluate the socioeconomic transition effects on CO2 emissions during the period 1997–2012. Based on the framework, we found that the industrialization process, with its rapid expansion of construction and heavy manufacturing industries, had a strong impact on the structure of CO2 emissions growth. Meanwhile, the development of transport equipment manufacturing and high-tech industry contributed to low-carbon development. The framework further showed that the urbanization process contributed to the increased CO2 emissions mainly by intensive investments in the construction sector and changing urban household consumption. Particularly, the fast-growing urban population, the urban household consumption level, as well as the associated consumption pattern transition towards a growing demand for manufacturing products, transport, shelter, and services together lead to tripled urban household consumption related CO2 emissions. These empirical results suggest that a targeted CO2 mitigation policy in Chongqing should focus on multiple significant socioeconomic driving factors with diverse leading sectors. This implication should be applicable for other inland regions with similar geographical and socioeconomic features.

Assessing environmental inequalities in the city of Santiago (Chile) with a hierarchical multiscale approach

Environmental inequalities are a common characteristic of urban areas. Environmental inequality is the unequal spatial distribution of environmental risks and goods among social groups. As environmental inequalities are inherently a spatial matter the choice of scale is essential for correctly understanding inequality issues and for designing proper and effective mitigation policies. However, the potential effects of scale of analysis on inequalities results have largely been underestimated in the assessment of environmental inequalities, leading to contradictory results from different studies. In this study we assess the patterns of environmental inequalities and associated scale issues in the city of Santiago (Chile) using a hierarchical multiscale approach. Our approach focuses on the analysis of spatial relationships between three environmental (i.e., surface temperature, air pollution, vegetation cover) and two socio-demographic variables (i.e., household wealth, population density) on multiple grain sizes and extents. We used census data, remote sensing data, and air pollution monitoring stations to generate raster layers at five grain sizes and five nested extents. We tested for inequalities through Pearson correlation analysis resulting in a total of 1530 assessed relationships. Our results show that environmental inequalities are a prevalent phenomenon in the city of Santiago, but the details of these inequalities are highly scale dependent. Changing the grain size and extent of analysis do not only affect the strength of relationships between socio-demographic and environmental variables, but also the spatial distribution of environmental inequalities across the urban landscape. Therefore, due to the scale-dependence of assessment results, researchers and decision-makers should be extremely careful when interpreting their findings and translating them into policy making. If the scale dependency of environmental inequalities is not taken into account, policy interventions may be largely ineffective because the scale at which interventions are designed may not match the scale at which inequalities are generated.

The Design of Policy Instruments towards Sustainable Livestock Production in China: An Application of the Choice Experiment Method

In face of gradual ecological deterioration, the Chinese government has been in search of more efficient and effective mitigation policies, aiming to promote the sustainability of livestock production. However, researchers and policy makers seem to neglect a key issue: pinpoint policies are the most important, which means niche targeting is the premise before any policy design, such that better knowing of the livestock farmers preference is prerequisite. This paper then analyzes this question using a method of choice experiment to elicit the farmers’ preference and valuation of livestock pollution control policy instruments at household-scale, medium-scale and large-scale farms. Five attributes (technology regulation, pollution charge, biogas subsidy, manure price, and information provisioning) were set as livestock pollution control policy instruments. In total, 754 pigs farmers from five representative provinces in China were surveyed, and the collected data were analyzed using random parameter logit models. The marginal substitution rates for attributes are estimated both with preference space approach and willingness to pay space approach. The results show significant heterogeneities in farmers’ preferences and valuations for livestock pollution control policy instruments within the three scales. All policy instruments effectively increased the manure eco-friendly treatment ratio for medium-scale farms, and household-scale farms showed little change in the manure eco-friendly treatment ratio under all policy instruments. Household-scale farms and medium-scale farms suggested the highest preference for the biogas subsidy policy, while large-scale farms suggested the highest preference for the manure price policy.

Die Bundesländer in der nationalen Energie- und Klimapolitik: Räumliche Verteilungswirkungen und föderale Politikgestaltung der Energiewende

Until today, the academic and political debates on the German energy transition have primarily focused on policy activities and processes at either the national or local level. However, they have largely ignored how the Länder shape the federal decision-making on the allocation of greenhouse gas emissions according to their place-based economic interests. The starting point of this paper is the empirical evidence that effective national climate mitigation policies can go along with considerable and spatially unevenly distributed redistributive effects for regional energy industries, energy consumption sectors and thus public budgets of the Länder. Since the costs and benefits of climate mitigation policies are distributed unevenly, the Länder pursue place-based economic and political interests that shape their climate mitigation programs and their positions in federal decision-making. Based on an analysis of the regional economic interests and of the climate mitigation programs of the Länder, the paper uses the cases of the renewable energy policies and the European emission trading system to demonstrate how (re-)distributional conflicts in climate mitigation policies have been reconciled. The case studies show that redistributive policies could be implemented through concessions to single Länder. They also show that through distributive mechanisms, the externalization of costs to the users played a major role, and that the EU could partially dissolve blockades in decision-making. Contrary to findings in the academic debate on German federalism, federal climate mitigation policies have partially stimulated mechanisms for economic and innovation competition between the Länder. However, the findings also demonstrate that the concessions to regional economic interests have reduced the cost-efficiency and effectiveness of the German energy and climate mitigation policies.

Temporal variations of atmospheric CO<sub>2</sub> and CO at Ahmedabad in western India

Abstract. About 70 % of the anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) is emitted from the megacities and urban areas of the world. In order to draw effective emission mitigation policies for combating future climate change as well as independently validating the emission inventories for constraining their large range of uncertainties, especially over major metropolitan areas of developing countries, there is an urgent need for greenhouse gas measurements over representative urban regions. India is a fast developing country, where fossil fuel emissions have increased dramatically in the last three decades and are predicted to continue to grow further by at least 6 % per year through to 2025. The CO2 measurements over urban regions in India are lacking. To overcome this limitation, simultaneous measurements of CO2 and carbon monoxide (CO) have been made at Ahmedabad, a major urban site in western India, using a state-of-the-art laser-based cavity ring down spectroscopy technique from November 2013 to May 2015. These measurements enable us to understand the diurnal and seasonal variations in atmospheric CO2 with respect to its sources (both anthropogenic and biospheric) and biospheric sinks. The observed annual average concentrations of CO2 and CO are 413.0 ± 13.7 and 0.50 ± 0.37 ppm respectively. Both CO2 and CO show strong seasonality with lower concentrations (400.3 ± 6.8 and 0.19 ± 0.13 ppm) during the south-west monsoon and higher concentrations (419.6 ± 22.8 and 0.72 ± 0.68 ppm) during the autumn (SON) season. Strong diurnal variations are also observed for both the species. The common factors for the diurnal cycles of CO2 and CO are vertical mixing and rush hour traffic, while the influence of biospheric fluxes is also seen in the CO2 diurnal cycle. Using CO and CO2 covariation, we differentiate the anthropogenic and biospheric components of CO2 and found significant contributions of biospheric respiration and anthropogenic emissions in the late night (00:00–05:00 h, IST) and evening rush hours (18:00–22:00 h) respectively. We compute total yearly emissions of CO to be 69.2 ± 0.07 Gg for the study region using the observed CO : CO2 correlation slope and bottom-up CO2 emission inventory. This calculated emission of CO is 52 % larger than the estimated emission of CO by the emissions database for global atmospheric research (EDGAR) inventory. The observations of CO2 have been compared with an atmospheric chemistry-transport model (ACTM), which incorporates various components of CO2 fluxes. ACTM is able to capture the basic variabilities, but both diurnal and seasonal amplitudes are largely underestimated compared to the observations. We attribute this underestimation by the model to uncertainties in terrestrial biosphere fluxes and coarse model resolution. The fossil fuel signal from the model shows fairly good correlation with observed CO2 variations, which supports the overall dominance of fossil fuel emissions over the biospheric fluxes in this urban region.

Adaptation of Asia-Pacific forests to climate change

Climate change is a threat to the stability and productivity of forest ecosystems throughout the Asia-Pacific region. The loss of forests due to climate-induced stress will have extensive adverse impacts on biodiversity and an array of ecosystem services that are essential for the maintenance of local economies and public health. Despite their importance, there is a lack of decision-support tools required to evaluate the potential effects of climate change on Asia-Pacific ecosystems and economies and to aid in the development of regionally appropriate adaptation and mitigation strategies. The project Adaptation of Asia-PacificForests to Climate Change, summarized herein, aims to address this lack of knowledge and tools and to provide support for regional managers to develop effective policy to increase the adaptive capacity of Asia-Pacific forest ecosystems. This objective has been achieved through the following activities: (1) development of a high-resolution climate downscaling model, ClimateAP, applicable to any location in the region; (2) development of climate niche models to evaluate how climate change might affect the distribution of suitable climatic conditions for regionally important tree species; (3) development and application of forest models to assess alternative management strategies in the context of management objectives and the projected impacts of climate change; (4) evaluation of models to assess forest fire risk and the relationship between forest fire and climate change; (5) development of a technique to assess ecosystem carbon storage using LiDAR; and (6) evaluation of how vegetation dynamics respond to climate change using remote sensing technology. All project outputs were developed with a focus on communication and extension to facilitate the dissemination of results to regional forest resource managers to support the development of effective mitigation and adaptation policy.

Potential and economic efficiency of using reduced tillage to mitigate climate effects in Danish agriculture

Soil organic carbon (SOC)11SOC: Soil Organic Carbon. plays a crucial role in regulating the global carbon cycle and its feedbacks within the Earth system. Compelling evidence exists that soil carbon stocks have reduced in many regions of the world, with these reductions often associated with agriculture. In a Danish context, research also suggests that soil carbon stocks are declining. The scope of Payment for Ecosystem Service (PES) approaches to effectively and efficiently address climate regulation will depend on the spatial distribution of the carbon assimilation capacity, current land use, the value of avoided emissions and land owners' objectives and preferences in terms of participating in initiatives to increase SOC. We map the carbon sequestration potential under different scenarios, value the potential sequestered carbon in terms of marginal costs of using voluntary agreements with agricultural land managers and compare these to the marginal abatement costs curve used in Danish climate policy. The cost effectiveness of reduced tillage as a climate mitigation PES scheme critically depends on the current debate on the net effects of carbon sequestration in reduced tillage practices. Based on existing IPCC guidelines, we find that reduced tillage has considerable potential for contributing to a cost effective climate mitigation policy.

Perceived ambiguity about earthquake and house destruction risks

To create effective risk mitigation policies and improve risk communications, it is important to understand how individuals perceive ambiguity about certain risks. A significant number of studies have demonstrated that an individual’s behavior is sensitive to ambiguity. Therefore, this study explores how Japanese homeowners perceive ambiguity about earthquake and house destruction risks by focusing on two research questions: (1) To what degree do people perceive ambiguity? and (2) What are the factors that affect the degree of perceived ambiguity? We administered a survey to 1200 homeowners in Japan. Respondents were asked to state their subjective probabilities and ambiguities about earthquake and house destruction risks. Next, we examined the socioeconomic characteristics affecting their perceived ambiguities by applying a sample selection model. The findings reveal four aspects related to ambiguity. First, some homeowners perceived considerable ambiguity, while the majority observed small degrees of it. Second, on average, homeowners perceived less ambiguity about house destruction risk compared to earthquake risk. Third, socioeconomic characteristics and house attributes had an effect on the perception of ambiguity. Finally, from the perspective of creating policies that mitigate house destruction risks due to earthquakes, seismic diagnoses can help correct subjective risks and reduce the perceived ambiguity regarding them.

Plastic and marine turtles: a review and call for research

Plastic debris is now ubiquitous in the marine environment affecting a wide range of taxa, from microscopic zooplankton to large vertebrates. Its persistence and dispersal throughout marine ecosystems has meant that sensitivity toward the scale of threat is growing, particularly for species of conservation concern, such as marine turtles. Their use of a variety of habitats, migratory behaviour, and complex life histories leave them subject to a host of anthropogenic stressors, including exposure to marine plastic pollution. Here, we review the evidence for the effects of plastic debris on turtles and their habitats, highlight knowledge gaps, and make recommendations for future research. We found that, of the seven species, all are known to ingest or become entangled in marine debris. Ingestion can cause intestinal blockage and internal injury, dietary dilution, malnutrition, and increased buoyancy which in turn can result in poor health, reduced growth rates and reproductive output, or death. Entanglement in plastic debris (including ghost fishing gear) is known to cause lacerations, increased drag—which reduces the ability to forage effectively or escape threats—and may lead to drowning or death by starvation. In addition, plastic pollution may impact key turtle habitats. In particular, its presence on nesting beaches may alter nest properties by affecting temperature and sediment permeability. This could influence hatchling sex ratios and reproductive success, resulting in population level implications. Additionally, beach litter may entangle nesting females or emerging hatchlings. Lastly, as an omnipresent and widespread pollutant, plastic debris may cause wider ecosystem effects which result in loss of productivity and implications for trophic interactions. By compiling and presenting this evidence, we demonstrate that urgent action is required to better understand this issue and its effects on marine turtles, so that appropriate and effective mitigation policies can be developed.

Bushmeat Consumption in the Tarangire-Manyara Ecosystem, Tanzania

Illegal hunting, driven by demand for bushmeat, threatens animal populations throughout Africa. While bushmeat consumption is thought to be common in the Tarangire-Manyara ecosystem (TME) of Northern Tanzania, its magnitude and drivers are not well understood. This lack of knowledge may inhibit effective mitigation policies. We conducted 394 household interviews in the TME in 2013 and 2014 to assess both the scale and the possible drivers of bushmeat availability and consumption in the ecosystem. Using generalized linear mixed models, information theoretic model selection, and accounting for spatial clustering of the interviews, we tested multiple hypotheses that underlie bushmeat consumption. Bushmeat consumption in the TME was found to be widespread among the local population. Surprisingly, we found little differences in reported bushmeat consumption between survey years (2013: 38%; 2014: 33% of interviewees). Pastoral Maasai admitted to consuming bushmeat significantly less often (2013: 29%; 2014: 26%) than non-Maasai (2013: 38%; 2014: 34%). Interestingly, none of the hypothesized spatial- or household-level factors consistently correlated with reported bushmeat consumption. Neither alternative sources of available animal protein, nor relative wealth affected bushmeat consumption. In conjunction with the relatively low price of bushmeat (half the price of domestic meat), these results suggest that bushmeat consumption is largely driven by its availability and low cost, and only to a small degree by cultural differences. Thus, conservation interventions will likely be most successful if they holistically manage to increase the cost of bushmeat relative to alternative protein sources.