Decoding the effect of socioeconomic transitions on carbon dioxide emissions: Analysis framework and application in megacity Chongqing from inland China

Abstract

Understanding the impact of dramatic socioeconomic transitions on soaring CO2 emissions is essential for developing targeted and effective CO2 mitigation policies. Taking Chongqing as a representative case in inland China, we proposed an analysis framework to evaluate the socioeconomic transition effects on CO2 emissions during the period 1997–2012. Based on the framework, we found that the industrialization process, with its rapid expansion of construction and heavy manufacturing industries, had a strong impact on the structure of CO2 emissions growth. Meanwhile, the development of transport equipment manufacturing and high-tech industry contributed to low-carbon development. The framework further showed that the urbanization process contributed to the increased CO2 emissions mainly by intensive investments in the construction sector and changing urban household consumption. Particularly, the fast-growing urban population, the urban household consumption level, as well as the associated consumption pattern transition towards a growing demand for manufacturing products, transport, shelter, and services together lead to tripled urban household consumption related CO2 emissions. These empirical results suggest that a targeted CO2 mitigation policy in Chongqing should focus on multiple significant socioeconomic driving factors with diverse leading sectors. This implication should be applicable for other inland regions with similar geographical and socioeconomic features.