Effects Of Oil Prices Research Articles

Asymmetric Effect of Oil Prices on Kazakhstan’s Stock Market Index and Exchange Rate

In this study, the asymmetric effect of oil prices in Kazakhstan on the exchange rate (USD/KZT) and Kazakhstan stock market index (KASE) returns was analyzed using the non-linear ARDL cointegration (NARDL) method with monthly data for the period January 2010-February 2024. As a result of the findings of the study, both positive and negative changes in oil prices statistically affect stock returns and exchange rates in the long term. The estimated long-term positive (0.115982) and negative (0.111234) coefficients of oil prices on KASE returns were found to be statistically significant at the 5% significance level. Thus, in the examined period, the KASE variable gave different reactions to positive or negative shocks in the oil price. In the model where the exchange rate is the dependent variable, the estimated long-term positive (-0.093875) and negative (-0.092918) coefficients of oil prices were found to be statistically significant at the 95% reliability level.

Oil Price and Long-run Economic Growth in Oil-importing Developing Countries

The recent spikes in oil prices are a significant setback for the world economy, which has already faced multiple challenges due to the COVID-19 pandemic. This is particularly concerning for developing countries as maintaining a sustained growth in real GDP is crucial for lifting their population out of poverty. While the short-run negative macroeconomic effects of a spike in oil prices are well established in the context of the developed world, the long-run growth effect has received little attention, especially in developing countries. Using the World Bank's development indicators database covering the period 1990 to 2020, this study aims to investigate the oil price-growth nexus in low and middle-income net oil-importing countries to shed light on how oil price increases could be a challenge for sustainable development. Specifically, we first set up a theoretical model to establish the relationship between growth in output per capita and oil price. Following the traditional growth regression approaches, we empirically estimate the causal effect of growth in oil prices on the economic growth of 65 net oil-importing developing countries using fixed effect panel IV regression methods. The empirical results confirm statistically significant negative effects of oil prices, indicating that a higher oil price reduces long-run economic growth in oil-importing developing countries. Our results on the other determinants of growth are consistent with the existing empirical growth literature. Oil-importing developing countries, therefore, must allocate resources towards alternative domestic energy sources, in addition to pursuing fuel efficiency and conservation strategies, to mitigate the negative effects of oil price fluctuations on their long-run economic output and uphold sustainable development.

Cyclinaclity Effects of Exchange Rates and Oil Prices

Understanding the concept of time scales is crucial when modeling economic and financial decisions. Within the time-frequency domain, this study delves into the relationship between fluctuations in oil prices and exchange rates across major oil-importing and exporting countries. The investigation employs various cross-wavelet techniques within the continuous wavelet transform framework, with a particular focus on wavelet coherence and phase-difference over the period 2000 to 2020. The results underscore a notable diversity in the connection between the oscillations of oil prices and exchange rates across diverse countries. This relationship is subject to temporal variations and is contingent upon the specific time horizon under consideration. In particular, our analysis reveals strong co-movements between oil prices and exchange rates across various time intervals and frequencies. Importing oil countries like New Zealand, Singapore, Brazil, and Taiwan exhibit particularly pronounced co-movements. Similarly, exporting oil countries such as Kuwait, Mexico, Russia, and Canada also display strong associations between oil prices and exchange rates. These correlations are intricately tied to key macroeconomic events, further highlighting the complex interplay between oil prices and exchange rate movements in different global regions. While a robust connection is evident in numerous countries, the strength of the relationship appears significantly weaker in several others. This variance underscores the nuanced nature of the association between the fluctuations in oil prices and exchange rates across the global landscape.

Oil prices and the renewable energy transition: Empirical evidence from China

This paper explores the effect of oil price, gross domestic product (GDP), and carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions on renewable energy consumption in China from 1990 to 2020, utilizing the canonical cointegrating regression (CCR) method. The findings indicate that the oil price, GDP and CO2 emissions positively and significantly affect renewable energy consumption over the examined time frame. Numerically, a 1% increase in oil prices, GDP, and CO2 emissions results in a 0.16%, 0.39%, and 1.70% increase in renewable energy consumption, respectively. The positive effect of oil prices on renewable energy consumption can be seen as the cost advantage of renewable energy, which may grow with rising oil prices, leading to a rise in its adoption. The study underscores the significance of promoting renewable energy usage, emphasizing the need for policies that aid energy security and environmental sustainability.

Retraction Note: Inquiring asymmetric effects of oil prices, money supply, and domestic debt on consumer prices: an empirical evidence from Pakistan.

Retraction Note: Inquiring asymmetric effects of oil prices, money supply, and domestic debt on consumer prices: an empirical evidence from Pakistan.

The Asymmetric Effects of Oil Prices on Stock Returns: Evidence from Hanoi Stock Exchange, Vietnam

This study is devoted to investigating the asymmetric effects of oil prices on stock returns for Hanoi Stock Exchange (HNX). The data used in this study are weekly series of HNX-Index, WTI crude oil prices and geopolitical risks (GPRs) Index covering the period from January 2, 2010 to December 31, 2023. This study employed a nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag (NARDL) bounds testing approach to estimate the short-term and long-term asymmetric effects of oil prices on the market returns. We found that in the short-term, oil prices have negative asymmetric effects on the market returns. Specifically, one percent increase in positive changes of oil prices immediately leads to 0.0085 percent decrease in the market returns. However, one percent increase in negative changes of oil prices is associated with 0.1487 percent decrease in the market returns. In the long-term, the estimated results confirm that both the negative and positive changes of oil prices have significantly negative effects on the market returns. Finally, the results obtained from the error correction model (ECM) indicate that 81.54 percent of the disequilibria from the previous week are converged and corrected back to the long-term equilibrium in the current week.

Determinasi RAROC Bank menggunakan Faktor Internal dan Faktor Eksternal Bank serta Size sebagai Variabel Moderasi

This study aims to explore the influence of internal and external company factors on bank profitability with size as a moderating variable. The company's financial ratios and macroeconomic variables are used to determine bank profitability, specifically the Risk-Adjusted Return on Capital (RAROC). A panel data model is employed to determine the RAROC in Indonesia for the period 2014 to 2023. This study finds that Non-Performing Loans, Electricity Consumption, Oil Prices, Exchange Rate, and FED Rate do not affect RAROC. However, Net Interest Margin and Total Assets have a significantly negative effect on RAROC, while Market Power has a significantly positive effect on RAROC. Additionally, Total Assets strengthen the negative effect of Non-Performing Loans and Net Interest Margin on RAROC, while Total Assets strengthen the positive effect of Market Power, Electricity Consumption, Oil Prices, Exchange Rate, and FED Rate on RAROC.

Asymmetric Effects of COVID-19 Deaths and Oil Price Shocks on Stock Market Returns in Some Selected African Countries: Evidence From Nonlinear ARDL Approach

This study investigates the asymmetric impact of oil price shocks and COVID-19 total deaths on Kenya, Morocco, Nigeria and South Africa stock market returns. To achieve this objective employing weekly time series data from March 13, 2020 to September 23, 2022, first, we apply the BDS test which confirm the nonlinearity of each series. Second, stationarity tests are used to investigate each series for unit root. The results show that series are stationary in level and in first difference. Third, the bounds test reveals that the series have a cointegration relationship and we apply the nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) ARDL framework to decompose oil price into positive and negative partial sum to investigate a possible asymmetric effect of oil price on stock market returns. The main findings of the asymmetric ARDL model reveal that, in the short-run dynamic, a positive shock in the oil price have a negative and positive effect on stock market returns in Morocco and South Africa respectively. The result is insignificant for Kenya and Nigeria. A negative shock in the oil price have a negative effect on the stock returns in Nigeria, South Africa and in Kenya, Morocco with one period lag. Furthermore, in the long-run, a positive shock in oil price exerts a negative effect on the stock market performance in Morocco and Nigeria while a negative shock in oil price leads to a negative effect also on the stock market returns. The total deaths present a counterintuitive result. Both in the long-run and short-run dynamic, the total number of deaths due to COVID-19 have a significant increasing effect on stock market returns in Kenya, Morocco and South Africa except for Nigeria.

Determinants of Inflation in Indonesia: Do Changes in World Oil Prices Matter?

This research was conducted to investigate the effect of world oil prices, interest rates, and money supply on inflation in Indonesia. This study uses the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) analysis method. The data used were monthly data from January 2014-May to 2022. The results show that interest rates do not significantly affect inflation in the short or long run. Money supply has a negative relationship with inflation in the short and long run. In the short term, world oil prices have a negative effect on inflation. Meanwhile, world oil prices have a positive and significant relationship with inflation in the long run. This finding implies that it is necessary to emphasize policies other than interest rates when controlling inflation, such as more straightforward bureaucratic policies, ease of investment services, and a more effective import trading system. Bank Indonesia should also remain consistent and focus on prudence when implementing macroeconomic policies. The government must also consider the timeframe for determining the oil price policy because it has different short-term and long-term effects.

Inflation effects of oil and gas prices in the UK: Symmetries and asymmetries

The United Kingdom is among the countries experiencing a cost-of-living crisis believed to be influenced, at least in part, by the dynamics of the international oil and gas markets. To this end, this study aims to achieve to achieve two objectives. Firstly, the dynamic association between the UK's inflation and oil and gas prices is examined. Further, the study examines whether the response of the UK's inflation to energy price dynamics is (a)symmetric. This study adopts wavelet coherency to determine the dynamic co-movement between energy prices and inflation. In addition, the dynamic simulated autoregressive distributed lag model (DS-ARDL) is used to examine the dynamic response of inflation to energy price changes. The estimation results reveal a symmetric response of inflation to gas price shocks. Further, the response of inflation to oil price shocks is asymmetric. Interestingly, the effect of gas price dynamics passes more strongly to inflation than to oil price dynamics. These findings suggest that a more diversified energy mix could help prevent substantial energy price pass-through to inflationary pressures.

The Relationship between Crude Oil Prices and the Gross Domestic Product, Inflation, and Unemployment: Evidence from Jordan

The primary goal of this study is to assess the effect of oil prices on Jordan's gross domestic product, inflation, and unemployment. The GDP represents a summation of gross value added via all resident producers in the economy and any product taxes not involved in the evaluation of output, divided by mid-year population. While the concept of unemployment denotes to the portion of the labor force that is without work but available for and looking for employment, as well as to inflation as stately by the consumer price index by using quarterly time series data from 2000 to 2021. The study employs an autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) equations system or a multivariate ARDL model to analyze the relationship. The findings indicate that in panel A, the ARDL(0,0) results suggest the absence of both short-term and long-term effects of oil prices on GDP, inflation, and unemployment. Conversely, panel B demonstrates that there are no immediate or prolonged impact of oil prices on unemployment (UNE) based on the ARDL(1,0) analysis. However, in panel C, the ARDL-ECM (1,0) highlights the existence of short-term and long-term impacts on inflation by oil prices. Decision makers in the Jordanian economy could employ the outcomes of this study to formulate the suitable policies that assist in dealing with the quantities of the oil imports from different countries which will directly affect in minimizing unemployment rates among Jordanians.

Interplay between economic progress, carbon emissions and energy prices on green energy adoption: Evidence from USA and Germany in context of sustainability

In contemporary times, where most academic research mainly focuses on the factors of economic and environmental sustainability and emissions reduction. Yet, very little attention has been paid to the identification of the factors of renewable energy, which requires appropriate policy-level attention. Consequently, this research investigated two developed economies, i.e., Germany and the USA, from 1991 to 2021 where, the objective of the study includes using novel and robust empirical methods to test the causal relationship between renewable energy and CO2 emissions, economic growth, technological innovations and oil prices. Using the normality and unit root estimators, this study observed that non-normal data distribution, yet all the variables are stationary. Using time-series and panel cointegration tests, the results validate the cointegration between economic growth, oil prices, carbon emission, technological innovation, and renewable energy adoption in the United States whereas Germany does not show cointegration between the variables. This study employ ‘s the Morlet-Wavelet approaches and key findings show that all these variables have a significant role in improving renewable energy adoption in both the region. Furthermore, results show a unidirectional and bidirectional causal association between the variables via the panel-stacked Granger causality test. This study recommends effective policy ramifications concerning improved investment in technological innovation, improved low-carbon production, and diverting economic growth to renewable energy transition. Use of improved new time-series method of wavelet coherence show the key contribution in this paper with new evidence of time frequency analysis on how external variables affect renewable energy consumption in developed countries of US and Germany. The objective includes understanding the effects of CO2 emissions, economic growth, technological innovations and oil prices on renewable energy which would give evidence to policy makers and environmentalists on how developed countries should improve clean energy adoption.

Hedging Carbon Price Risk on EU ETS: A Comparison of Green Bonds from the EU, US, and China

This article aims to examine the hedging effect of green bonds in the US market, the European market, and the Chinese market on carbon price risk in the European Union Emission Trading System (EU ETS) from 2021 to 2023. By using daily datasets extracted from Bloomberg and the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM), the research provides evidence of the hedging effect of green bonds in all three markets on carbon price risk in the EU ETS. The paper concludes that the hedging ratio is positive for green bonds in the EU and China, while the figure for the US market is negative. Moreover, there is a positive effect of oil prices on carbon returns in EU ETS. Meanwhile, the opposite is found for stock prices.

The Effect of Oil Price in Malaysia Economy Sectors

The objective of this study is to examine long-run relationship between oil price and Malaysia’s economy sectors, which include of agriculture, manufacturing and services sectors. Time series data for the period from 1980 to 2014 is applied such as Unit Root test, Johansen Cointegration test and Granger Causality test. Augmented Dickey-Fuller and Phillip-Perron tests results indicated that the variable proved to be integrated in order one I(1) at first difference. After testing Cointegration test, a long-run relationship between the variables was found and oil price does granger cause sectoral output in shortrun. Hence, this study is important for policy makers to restructure economic policies on oil price in Malaysia economy sectors.

How Oil Price Shocks Influence on Inflation Rate? Evidence from Malaysian Economy

The primary object of this research is to inspect the effect of oil price (OP) on expansion and inflation rate (Inf) in Malaysia, this data collected on specific macroeconomic indicators such as inflation (Inf) and country’s oil price (OP) by utilizing year to year information from 2008 to 2018. This research study are based on secondary data. By using E- views regression model, correlation model, descriptive analysis, and graphical Causality model were used to break down the information about oil price (OP) and inflation rate (Inf). The relationship between two factors is presence more correlation effect at 5% large dimension over the long term. These show that the significant correlated with each other. In this study, data used as a form of secondary just oil cost price influenced the expansion of Malaysia economy. The conversion standard does not specify the main reason for both of the factors (Inflation rate (Inf) and Oil Price OP). Along these lines, the oil unrefined cost, which an effect on expansion economy. On the other hand that the rate of oil cost and expansion additionally make esteem changes, the advancement similarly changes. There is a progressively critical connection between oil price (OP) and inflation rate (Inf) in Malaysia economy. Research founded that there is a significant relationship between oil price and inflation rate. This finding helps the Malaysian government in essential leadership a way to deal with the oil price to manage inflation rates.

THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN BIST BANK INDEX AND INFLATION, EXCHANGE RATE, INTEREST RATE, GOLD AND OIL PRICES: EVIDENCE FROM THE ARDL BOUND TEST

The aim of this study is to investigate the effects of inflation, exchange rate, interest rates, gold and oil prices on the BIST bank index between January 2005 - October 2023. For this purpose, firstly, the stationarity levels of the data were tested by the Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) and Phillips- Perron (PP) tests. Then, since the series became stationary at different levels, ARDL bounds test, one of the cointegration tests, was applied. In the study, it is concluded that the BIST bank index and its independent variables are cointegrated in the long-run in the relevant period. According to the short-term asymmetric relationship results, a 1% increase in gold prices by 0.036%, a 1% increase in interest rates by 0.33%, and a 1% increase in the dollar exchange rate by 1.03% decreased the BIST Bank index. On the other hand, a 1% increase in CPI has a positive effect on the BIST Bank Index. No statistical relationship was found between oil prices and BIST Bank Index.

The effect of oil price on stock market performance and petrochemical stock value using NARDL

The aim of the study is to examine the impact of oil prices on the stock market performance and the stock value of petrochemical companies on the Tehran Stock Exchange (TSE). For this, it utilizes the Non-linear autoregressive distributed lag during 2011 to 2021 using time series data with monthly frequency. The results showed that in the short run, the oil price has an asymmetric impact on the stock value of petrochemical industries and also on the performance of the stock market, while in the long run, this effect is symmetrical. So, the influence of bouncing up the oil price is greater than the impact of its moving down. Then, the asymmetric effect happens through the increase in oil prices. Therefore, ups and downs in oil prices lead to fluctuations in the stock market returns, especially in petrochemical companies. Based on the results, capital market participants should watch the informational content of oil price fluctuations to make buying and selling decisions and invest in companies' shares according to these fluctuations.

Geopolitical risk, supply chains, and global inflation

AbstractThis paper investigates the effects of global geopolitical risks and global supply chain pressures on global inflation for the monthly period of 1999M1–2022M12. The investigation is based on a structural vector autoregression model, where the effects of global oil prices and global monetary policy are controlled for. Four alternative measures of inflation are used, including headline, core, food, and energy inflation. The empirical results show that disruptions in global supply chains are the main drivers of global inflation in the long run as the corresponding shocks explain the lion's share of volatilities in headline inflation (by 32%), core inflation (by 30%), and food inflation (by 22%), followed by oil price shocks and policy rate shocks. In comparison, energy inflation is explained the most by oil price shocks (by 55%) followed by supply chain shocks and policy rate shocks. Positive supply chain pressure and oil price shocks have positive and statistically significant effects on headline inflation even after five years, whereas positive policy rate shocks have negative and statistically significant effects on headline inflation in the long run. In contrast, positive shocks to geopolitical risk result in higher headline inflation only up to one year, with insignificant effects in the long run. Several policy implications follow.

The Effects of Oil Price on Energy Production and the Ecuadorian Economy

Through an empirical analysis of the impact of variations in the international price of oil on the economic production of different strategic sectors and on energy production from various sources in Ecuador, the study seeks to show evidence on the economic effects of the price of oil. in a Latin American economy strongly linked to oil production. For this, relevant data were collected on production in different economic sectors, on the type of ownership in oil production and on energy production in various energy sources in Ecuador and statistical analyzes were carried out to evaluate the relationships between these and the international oil price. The results indicate that the effect of the oil price varies between the economic sectors of Ecuador. Some sectors, such as financial services and construction, show positive responses, while others, such as agriculture and fishing, appear less affected. The oil and mining sector in Ecuador is strongly linked to variations in the price of oil. The positive and significant response of the Oil and Mines GDP underlines the sensitivity of this sector to changes in international prices. Furthermore, energy production in Ecuador exhibits heterogeneous responses to variations in the price of oil. Forms of energy such as wind, solar, and thermal energy show positive and significant responses, while hydropower presents a negative response in some periods. Positive responses in forms of energy such as wind, solar, and thermal may indicate that the increase in the price of oil positively influences investment decisions in these energy sources. The study provides a significant contribution to the field of energy economics in oil-exporting countries and, particularly, in developing countries, as well as highlights the importance of energy diversification for these types of economies.

Energy Prices and Their Impact on US Stock Indices: A Wavelet- based Quantile-on-Quantile Regression Approach

This study delves into the effects of crude oil and gas prices on the United States’ (US) conventional, Islamic, and environmental, social, and governance (ESG) stock indices from January 2013 to December 2022. Decomposing original time series data to minimise inherent fluctuations and using the Quantile-on-Quantile (QQ) regression approach presents a nuanced view of how these energy prices impact different stock indices. The findings reveal that crude oil prices have a variable impact on the indices: high prices negatively influence the indices, low prices have a positive effect, and moderate prices yield a moderate positive impact. After data decomposition, this positive influence diminishes in higher quantiles, indicating an emerging neutral effect in stabilised conditions. In contrast, gas prices show a limited impact, with high prices slightly benefiting conventional and ESG indices but less so for the Islamic index. This suggests a more pronounced influence of oil prices on the indices, likely due to the dependence of many listed companies on oil. The study emphasises the importance of considering oil-related risks in investment strategies and highlights the asymmetric impact of crude oil prices on the US stock indices. These findings have significant implications for investors and policymakers. They underscore the need for careful consideration of oil price dynamics in investment decisions and the importance of staying vigilant against shifts in oil prices that could lead to market instability.