In engineering, random errors in radiating element positions caused by the manufacturing and assembly process could lead to degradation of the radiation performance of an antenna array. In order to accurately evaluate the deterioration of the antenna performance in the design phase, a statistical analysis method considering the mutual coupling effect between array elements is developed herein. The mutual coupling effect is described in terms of modal coupling and is governed by the modal coupling equilibrium equation. The statistical characteristics such as the mean and variance of the gain pattern are obtained based on the second-order Taylor expansion, and the expansion coefficients are obtained by the adjoint method. The correctness and effectiveness of the proposed method are verified through a comparison with the standard Monte Carlo method.