Effect Of Interest Rates Research Articles

The Effect of Inflation, Interest Rates, and Exchange Rates on The Jakarta Composite Index

The Jakarta Composite Index (JCI) is an indicator that is generally used to measure the performance of companies or issuers listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX). This study aims to empirically test the determinants that affect JCI during the occurrence of covid 19. The variables tested in this study involve the influence of inflation, interest rates, and exchange rates on JCI. The methods used are descriptive analysis and regression analysis of panel data with the help of EViews program. Of the several models selected in this study is the Common Effect Model (CEM). The results showed that inflation had a positive and significant effect on JCI, interest rates had a negative and significant effect on JCI, exchange rates had a negative and significant effect on JCI. Inflation, interest rates, exchange rates together have a significant effect on JCI. The coefficient of determination by which the independent variable is able to explain the dependent variable is 54%.

The Effect of Inflation and Interest Rate on Consumer Spending: Empirical Evidence from Malaysia

This study seeks to determine the exact impact of inflation, interest rate and disposable income on consumer spending in Malaysia. Although there have been few studies which explored the issue of inflation, interest rate, disposable income and consumer spending, their method, time scope and geographical location had been different. This study aims to examine the relationship of inflation (CPI), interest rate, disposable income (GDP per capita) with consumer spending in Malaysia using annual time series data from the period 1980 to 2022 and employing Ordinary Least Square (OLS) and Granger Causality to test causality relationship amongst variables. The result revealed that there is a significant negative relationship between interest rate and consumer spending. However, inflation rate has an insignificant positive effect with consumer spending. Disposable income (GDP) shows a significant positive relationship on consumer spending. In addition, the findings supported Keynesian Absolute Income Hypothesis which stated that consumption positively correlates with disposable income. The study recommends the employers of labour should make an effort to periodically raise workers' wages to reflect shifts in the macroeconomic and microeconomic conditions impacting the country. Only when wages are raised in line with the nation's economic conditions will consumers be able to improve their consumption expenditures through an increase in disposable income. Policies that lower taxes should also be developed to increase consumers' disposable income.

Is interest rate hiking a recipe for missing several goals of monetary policy—beating inflation, preserving financial stability, and keeping up output growth?

After the corona crisis, and even more so when the war in Ukraine struck, the price levels of all goods in the US and Europe rose surprisingly quickly and persistently. The FED began in March 2022 and the ECB in July 2022 with historically unique interest rate increases to combat the wage-price spiral that had not yet begun. In this article we show that energy, commodities and food were the main drivers of inflation. For this reason, central banks' goal of weakening demand for labor through historically large interest rate hikes seems unwise. We argue that the current measures cannot achieve all of their objectives: slowing inflation, stabilizing financial markets and sustaining growth. If interest rates remain high, but external forces emerge with a lasting effect and keep inflation rates high, especially in smaller emerging countries, it will be difficult to counteract this on a country or regional basis through high interest rate policy and national control of the price- and wage-Phillips curve. Significant negative side effects of interest rate hikes increase the risk of not making the necessary investments and, in particular, weaken the bargaining power of particularly vulnerable employment groups. Other tools are needed to curb inflation and keep it under control, for example more investment in sectors with supply disruptions and a massive expansion of investment in renewable energy.

아파트의 역전세에 영향을 미치는 요인에 관한 연구

This study focuses on the capital region to identify the factors that influence the recent socially problematic trend of apartment flipping. Specifically, this study examines the causes of the reversal trend in apartment buildings in three regions: the Seoul metropolitan area, the Seoul region, and the Gyeonggi-do region, categorized by real estate characteristics, macroeconomic characteristics, environmental characteristics, and timing characteristics. The data used in this study is an unbalanced panel. The entity data consisted of 59 observations in the Seoul metropolitan area, 25 in Seoul, and 26 in Gyeonggi Province, and 103 time series from April 2015 to October 2023. The main results of the analysis are as follows. In terms of environmental characteristics, we find that the implementation of the three housing lease protection laws reduces the Chonsei deposit default, which is identical to Models 1 (Seoul metropolitan area), 2 (Seoul), and 3 (Gyeonggi). After the Ukraine-Russia war, Model 2 shows an increase in apartment Chonsei default, while Models 1 and 3 show a decrease in apartment Chonsei default. The different signs suggest that the interest rate effect is stronger in Seoul. In comparison, the effect of supply shortage due to the surge in commodity prices is stronger in the Seoul metropolitan area and Gyeonggi province. In the case of COVID-19, Model 2 shows the decrease in the apartment Chonsei default due to increased money supply and decreased interest rates. Model 1 (Seoul metropolitan area) and Model 3(Gyeonggi) region generated an apartment Chonsei default because the liquidity was concentrated in Seoul, the largest investment destination due to COVID-19, the rental rate decreased in Gyeonggi-do, which increased the Chonsei default. Regarding timing characteristics, the 2023 dummy has a positive effect. The renters in the Seoul Metropolitan Area, Seoul, and Gyeonggi Province all signed Chonsei contracts in 2021, when the Chosei deposit was the highest. In 2022, the growth of apartment Chonsei deposits stagnated. In January 2023, apartment Chonsei deposits began to decline, leading to the phenomenon of apartment Chonsei deposit default, and as of November 2023, the Chonsei default phenomenon is intensifying.

Analyzing the Effects of Interest Rates, Inflation, and Exchange Rates on Stock Market Performance: A Comparative Study Of Indonesia and Japan

Analyzing the Effects of Interest Rates, Inflation, and Exchange Rates on Stock Market Performance: A Comparative Study Of Indonesia and Japan

The effect of inflation and interest rates on number of pawn customers at PT Pegadaian Daya branch office

PT Pegadaian is a state-owned credit institution that has a specific objective as a distributor of loan money based on pawn law which is aimed at preventing the practice of debt bondage, illegal pawnshops, usury, and other unfair loans. This research aims to see the effect of inflation and interest rates on the growth of the number of pawn customers at PT. Pegadaian Daya branch, Makassar City, South Sulawesi Province, Indonesia. This research was conducted at the PT. Pegadaian Daya branch office, Makassar, Indonesia. The population in this study were all pawn customers of the PT Pegadaian Daya branch, where the author took 96 samples using the Lemeshow method. Data collection was carried out using a questionnaire distributed to consumers using the Random Sampling method. The research results found that both inflation and interest rates did not have a significant effect on the number of pawn customers at PT Pegadaian Daya Branch office.

What Drives House Prices in Europe?

AbstractBoom‐and‐bust cycles in the housing market pose a threat to macroeconomic and financial stability, thus calling for a timely assessment of imbalances. This work sheds light on the drivers of house price dynamics in some euro area economies, investigating the risks of overheating. We show that an Error‐Correction‐Model (ECM) featuring a long‐run relationship between house prices and income and short‐run effects of interest rates and housing supply fits the data well in most cases. We then propose a novel model‐based misalignment indicator and find that extrapolative house price expectations play an important role in the build‐up of speculative bubbles.

Repercussions of Reliance on Informal Sources of Finance: A Study of Tribal Communities in Kerala

The economic and social consequences of reliance on informal finance are enormous in the case of socially and economically disadvantaged people like the tribal communities. These communities have become more financially vulnerable due to the severe barriers in accessing institutionalised formal finance. Drawing on data collected from 246 randomly chosen households from four tribal communities (Kurichya, Kuruma, Adiya and Paniya) in the Wayanad district of Kerala, and using mixed-method approach, the study seeks to examine the repercussions of reliance on informal source of finance by the tribal communities. The study reveals that the agents of informal financiers also resort to social demoralising and mental harassment towards the tribal households. The study shows that tribal households may not be aware of compounding effect of interest rates when they avail credit from any source of finance, especially informal finance. This in turn increases the indebtedness among the tribal communities. All these call for the need of tailoring institutional (formal) credit solutions suitable to the credit needs and socio-economic conditions of the weaker segments of the society like the tribal communities. The study suggests adopting supply-side cum demand-side strategies.

The comparison of islamic and conventional banking in ownership structure and interest rates in Indonesia

Ownership structure and interest rates are important factors affecting a bank's performance. Previous studies have found the effect of ownership structure and interest rates on company performance, but no one has specifically examined differences in Banking performance in ownership structure and interest rates. This study aims to compare the performance of Islamic and conventional banking in ownership structure and interest rates. In study, the author used quantitative methods that emphasize the analysis of numerical data processed using Stata 16. Based on the unstructured data panel, there are 13 Islamic banking and 107 conventional banking, the total banks used as objects are 120 banks with 1110 observations. The results are local ownership did not affect the performance of Islamic banks, compared to conventional banking on the contrary. Foreign ownership in Islamic banking affects Banking performance, while conventional banking has no effect. Furthermore, government ownership affects the performance of Islamic banks, but does not affect the performance of conventional banking. Based on the results of the study, it can be proven that government and foreign interference in the ownership of Islamic banking plays a role in improving the bank's performance. Whereas conventional banking has performed well under local ownership.

Money Supply, Inflation and Budget Deficit in Russia Compared to the United States

The author examines the causes and sources of the depreciation of money in Russia compared with that in the United States. The subject is causal connections between the budget deficit, money supply, and the depreciation of money. The relevance of the research for Russia is determined by concerns about macroeconomic stability and high inflation. In the case of the United States, an increase in the money supply and an inflation spike occurred because of the debt financing of the federal budget deficit. The scientific novelty of the paper lies in considering the two main options for monetary policy to support the liquidity of public debt: hard and soft, and the analytical methods and results of the research. One of the important scientific results is that the burden of public debt should be measured not as the ratio of public debt to gross domestic product (GDP) but as the share of public debt in a bond market. The second scientific result is very important for the practice: during 2011–2022, in the eight biennial periods, the GDP deflator was approximately equal to the growth of the money supply M2 minus GDP growth. Thus, the depreciation of money was directly caused by monetary policy. In the other three biennial periods, a substantial difference was observed, probably because of external shocks. As the method of the study, the author estimated the effect of interest rates caused by crowding out corporate debt by public debt. It was substantiated that to obtain the effects of soft monetary policy and thus the increase of M2 to GDP deflator, it is essential to use biennial periods. Based on the results of the analysis, it was revealed that, particularly in 2021–2022, the growth of the GDP deflator amounted to 139.8% and was due to the growth of the money supply M2 by 140.5%. At the same time, the effect on GDP growth was insignificant, at 3.4%. The key conclusion is that for the implementation of macroeconomic stability policies, it is necessary to manage the expansion of the M2 money supply, the exchange rate, and to use the GDP deflator as an important indicator in addition to the inflation index — consumer price index. A good way to achieve this is to adopt a special law for controlling inflation, similar to the USA Inflation Reduction Act.

The Moderating Effect of Interest Rates and Inflation on the Effect of Bond Coupons and Bond Maturity on the Price of Fixed Rate (FR) Series RI State Bonds in 2022

The Moderating Effect of Interest Rates and Inflation on the Effect of Bond Coupons and Bond Maturity on the Price of Fixed Rate (FR) Series RI State Bonds in 2022

The Effect of Income, Interest Rates, and Quality of Service on Decisions to Granting Credit

Study This aims to know the Influence of Income, Interest Rates, and Quality Service Against Awarding Decision Credit to BPR throughout the Regency Gianyar. The magnitude sample used as many as 72 respondents using purposive sampling. All data from the distribution questionnaire was used and analyzed using multiple linear regression and hypothesis testing (t-test and f-test). Research results show that (1) Income positively influences Award Decision Credit at the BPR of the Regency Gianyar. (2) Interest Rates influential and favorable to Award Decision Credit at the BPR of the Regency Gianyar. (3) Quality Service influential positive to Award Decision Credit at the BPR of the Regency Gianyar. This study has the influence and impact that: 1) Income positively influences Award Decision Credit at the BPR of the Regency Gianyar. 2) Interest Rates are influential and favorable to Award Decision Credit at the BPR of the Regency of Gianyar. 3) Quality Service positively influences Award Decision Credit at the BPR of the Regency Gianyar.

Determinants of Foreign Direct Investment in the APEC Region (Case Studies in 5 Countries, namely Australia, Japan, Singapore, Brunei Darussalam, and Indonesia for the Period 2012-2019)

Foreign direct investment (FDI) is an important factor in the development of a country and plays a crucial role in the growth and development of a country’s economy. FDI can be a source of capital in developing countries to help fund various sectors that are underfunded, this FDI also creates many new jobs so that the unemployment rate can be reduced. The entry of foreign investment is usually accompanied by technology transfer. One of the areas targeted by investors is the member countries of the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC). This study aims to determine the effect of inflation, interest rates, and trade openness on FDI (case studies in five APEC member countries, namely Australia, Japan, Singapore, Brunei Darussalam, and Indonesia, period 2012-2019). The analytical method used in this study is the panel data regression analysis method with the seemingly unrelated regression (SUR) model using STATA 16 software for data regression and Eviews 10 to test stationary data. The stationary test of the data in this study uses the Augmented Dickey–Fuller (ADF) method at the first difference because the data level is not stationary. The results of research conducted using the SUR Model show that inflation has a negative and significant effect on FDI, interest rates have a positive and significant effect on FDI, and trade openness has a significant and negative effect on FDI.
 Keywords: foreign direct investment, inflation, interest rates, seemingly unrelated regression, trade openness

Pengaruh Profitabilitas, Likuiditas, Nilai Tukar, Inflasi, Suku Bunga dan Leverage Terhadap Financial Distress pada Perusahaan Manufaktur Makanan dan Minuman yang Terdaftar pada BEI Periode 2019 - 2021

This study aims to analyze and determine the effect of Profitability, Liquidity, Exchange Rate, Inflation, Interest Rates and Leverage on the Financial Distress of Food and Beverage Manufacturing Companies Listed on the IDX between 2019 - 2021. Techniques for collecting data use documentation. While the type of data is quantitative using secondary data. For the population using Food and Beverage Manufacturing Companies listed on the IDX for the 2019-2021 period, totaling 30 companies where the sampling is purposive sampling so that the total sample is 10 companies x 3 years = 30 financial statements. Then the data analysis uses multiple linear regression analysis, coefficient of determination, as well as t test and F test. The following are the results of the study (1) Profitability partially significantly affects financial distress. (2) Liquidity partially significantly affects financial distress. (3) The exchange rate partially does not significantly affect financial distress. (4) Inflation partially does not significantly affect financial distress. (5) Interest rates partially do not significantly affect financial distress. (6) Leverage partially does not significantly affect financial distress. (7) Profitability, liquidity, exchange rate, inflation, interest rates and leverage significantly affect financial distress.

The Effects of Macroeconomic Variables on the BIST 100 Index: ARDL and NARDL Approaches

The objective of this research is to analyse the signal, magnitude, and significance of both symmetric and asymmetric effects of interest rate, taxes, exchange rate, oil price, and gold price on the Turkish stock market (BIST100). The autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) technique was used in both linear and non-linear formats. The F-Bounds test of the linear ARDL test suggests that the variables do not exhibit long-term integration. Nevertheless, the F-bounds test of the nonlinear ARDL (NARDL) test confirms the presence of cointegration among the variables. Therefore, the research heavily relies on the NARDL model. The empirical evidence indicates the long-term influence of the exchange rates rate, gold price, and interest rate on the BIST100 index is asymmetric. Additionally, the asymmetrical effects of interest rates, taxes, exchange rates, oil prices, and gold prices in the short term have an impact on the BIST100.

THE EFFECT OF CREDIT ALLOCATION AND LOAN INTEREST ON SMALL BUSINESS INCOME (KIF) AT KAEBAUK INVESTIMENTU NO FINANSAS (KIF), DILI, TIMOR-LESTE

The theme of this research is the effect of credit allocation and loan interest rates on the income level of small businesses in Kaebauk Investimentu and Finance, Dili, Timor-Leste. The purpose of this study was to analyze and examine the effect of credit allocation on the income level of small businesses in the Investment and Finance district, Dili, Timor-Leste and to analyze the credit interest rate on the income level of small businesses in the Investment and Finance district, Dili, Timor-Leste. Leste. leste. The hypothesis in this study explains that there is a positive and significant effect of credit allocation on the income level of small businesses in the Investment and Finance district, Dili, Timor-Leste and that there is a positive and significant effect of credit interest rates on the income level of small businesses in Kaebauk Investment and Finance, Dili, Timor- Leste. The methodology in this research is descriptive quantitative with multiple linear regression analysis tool. The results of this study indicate that there is no positive effect of credit allocation on

The Impact of Interest Rate Spillover on Output Gap: A Dynamic Spatial Durbin Model

The recent multidimensional crisis has harmed the global economy because countries are currently integrated. In this study, we examine the spillover effect of the United States (US) interest rate on the output gap of ASEAN+3 countries using the dynamic spatial Durbin model from 2010 to 2020. After controlling for various institutional variables, this analysis further examines the effect of the exchange rate and the COVID-19 pandemic on the output gap. This model captures the spatial interactions and short- and long-term effects of interest rate monetary policies. The findings indicate a negative spillover effect of the US central bank interest rate on ASEAN+3 countries’ output gap. The result had significant direct and indirect short-term effects. Additionally, exchange rates negatively affect the output gap. The output gap decreased because of the COVID-19 pandemic. This study is expected to be useful for monetary authorities in developing the best monetary policy for economic recovery.

PENGARUH INFLASI, SUKU BUNGA, ROA DAN EPS TERHADAP RETURN SAHAM PERUSAHAAN SUB SEKTOR BATU BARA

Investment is an activity to invest directly or indirectly with the aim of obtaining a return. One form of indirect investment that is popular and in great demand by investors today is stocks. The level of return obtained by investors is not fixed and can change at any time. The purpose of this study was to determine the effect of inflation, interest rates, ROA and EPS on stock returns. This research was conducted using the object of research, namely the coal sub-sector mining sector companies listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange in the 2016-2020 period. This study uses secondary data from the company's financial statements as well as the official website of Bank Indonesia and the Central Statistics Agency (BPS). The analysis technique used is multiple linear regression. The results show that (1) inflation has no effect on stock returns, (2) interest rates have a negative effect on stock returns, (3) ROA has a positive effect on stock returns, and (4) EPS has a positive effect on stock returns.

Probability causal inference of interest rate fluctuations: Evidence from private credit in emerging markets

Preventing risks in the private credit market is an important component of maintaining financial stability, especially in emerging markets. As loan amounts serve as both the cause and the effect of credit interest rates, through the weighted path convergence design of conditional probability and joint probability, this study establishes a probabilistic causal inference framework of loan amounts and interest rates to explore the mechanism of interest rate fluctuations in China's private credit market, market behaviour of the allocation of private loan amount, and the design of policies. The analysis provides several results. (1) The fluctuation of private credit interest rate occurred during the outbreak of the epidemic (2019Q1-2020Q1), the credit interest rate was mainly controlled by the loan amount, and the interest rate fluctuation mainly originated from private credit market behaviour. In the early stage of the post COVID-19 economic recovery (2020Q3-2021Q3), the credit interest rate is mainly controlled by non-loan amount factors, and the interest rate fluctuations occurred mainly because of the non-market behaviour of private credit, which is related to government policy support and the increase in low-interest loans from financial institutions. (2) As a result of market behaviour, for the 19.54 %–22.50 % of high interest rates on borrowing, the probability of high interest rates due to the loan amount increased by 40.48 %. (3) By policy design, reallocating the risky loan amount, the interest rate can be reduced by up to 7.36 % on a highlight-interest rate day. The reallocation of loan amounts for different security methods has varying effects on interest rates reductions, and there may even be ineffective allocations. The findings provide decision support for financial regulators in emerging markets to stabilise interest rate volatility in private credit markets.

PENGARUH INFLASI, NILAI KURS DAN SUKU BUNGA TERHADAP RETURN SAHAM PADA PERUSAHAAN PERBANKAN YANG TERDAFTAR DI BURSA EFEK INDONESIA


 
 
 
 Stock return is the return obtained from investment. Investors' expectations in investing in stocks other than being the owner of a company with a certain proportional ownership, the shares invested are expected to be able to provide a certain rate of return. The purpose of this study was to determine the effect of inflation, exchange rates and interest rates on stock returns in banking companies listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange for the period 2017-2019.
 The population in this study were all banking companies listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange for the 2017-2019 period, totaling 45 companies. The sampling technique used purposive sampling method, in order to obtain a sample of 27 company samples. The data collection method used in this study is secondary data with documentation techniques by collecting existing online documents in the form of financial reports obtained from www.idx.co.id. With the number of observations for 3 consecutive years. The data analysis technique used is multiple linear regression using the SPSS version 16 program.
 The results of this study indicate that the independent variable inflation, exchange rates and interest rates have an effect on stock returns with a significance value of 0.000 <0.05. The results of the study that partially Inflation has an effect on Stock Returns indicated by a significance value of 0.000 <0.05. Exchange rate has an effect on Stock Return indicated by a significance value of 0.000 <0.05. Interest rates have an effect on Stock Returns indicated by a significance value of 0.000 <0.05.
 The conclusion from the results of this study is that inflation, exchange rates and interest rates affect Stock Returns in banking companies listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange for the period 2017-2019. Suggestions that can be conveyed to investors who are going to invest are advised to pay more attention to these variables in making investment decisions so as to reduce investment risks such as decreased stock returns