Effective Conservation Measures Research Articles

Assessment of soil erosion risk in a hilly zone sub-watershed of Karnataka using geospatial technologies and the RUSLE model

ABSTRACT Human activities and climate change have sped up soil erosion, leading to annual losses of fertile soil and declining crop yields. The biggest concerns in land and water conservation are modeling and monitoring soil loss, as well as measuring the vulnerability and danger of active erosional processes. In the present study, a comprehensive approach used to evaluate the risk of soil erosion in the Ganjigatti sub-watershed of Karnataka, India, using the RUSLE model and GIS techniques. The annual average soil loss estimated using the RUSLE model ranged from 0 to 122.73 t ha−1 yr−1, with an average of 3.48 t ha−1 yr−1 in the Ganjigatti sub-watershed. The quantity of erosion was found to be greatly influenced by topography (LS factor) and land use and land cover (C factor). The results showed that a larger part of the study area, 98.34%, accounted for slight erosion (0–5 t ha−1 yr−1). The spatial pattern of erosion revealed high to very severe risk zones in the main stream of sub-watershed. The total soil loss was calculated to be 15,046.96 t yr−1 in the sub-watershed. The study’s results aid decision-makers, land administrators, environmentalists, and others in implementing effective land and water conservation measures in the Ganjigatti sub-watershed to control soil erosion.

Will the carbon emissions trading system promote enterprises' willingness to pay for carbon emission reduction?

AbstractThe emissions trading system (ETS) is one of the effective measures for energy conservation and emissions reduction, and the impact of the carbon ETS can be reflected in the willingness of enterprises to pay for carbon emissions reductions. However, there has been little research exploring the relationship between the two. Therefore, this study fills this knowledge gap by comprehensively investigating the influence of China carbon ETS policy (ETSP) on the willingness of enterprises to pay for carbon emissions reductions, and incorporates environmental awareness (EA), green technology innovation (GTI), and climate risk awareness (CRA) into the research model, thus constructing a new theoretical framework. Empirical analysis is conducted using the structural equation modeling method based on survey data from 478 Chinese enterprises. The results indicate that: (1) the China carbon ETSP can promote the willingness of enterprises to pay for carbon emissions reductions. (2) The China carbon ETSP can also promote the EA, GTI, and CRA of enterprises. (3) EA, GTI, and CRA can also promote the willingness of enterprises to pay for carbon emissions reductions. (4) Mediation effect analysis revealed that EA and CRA, respectively, play a mediating role in the influence process of the China carbon ETSP on the willingness of enterprises to pay for carbon emissions reductions. However, GTI does not have a mediating effect in this process. (5) Comparative mediation analysis found no significant differences in the mediating effects of EA and CRA. This study provides constructive practical recommendations for future carbon market mechanism construction and enterprise emission reduction policy formulation. It also offers guidance and reference for the behavioral decision‐making of enterprises in carbon market transactions, and carries practical significance and policy advocacy value.

Essential contribution of habitats in non-protected areas to climate-driven species migration in China

Given the reality of climate-driven migration, the net effectiveness of existing spatially fixed protected areas (PAs) to biodiversity conservation is expected to decline, while the potential of non-PA habitats (non-PAs, i.e., natural, altered, or artificial ecosystems that are not formally designated as PAs) for biodiversity conservation is gaining attention. However, the contribution of non-PAs to biodiversity conservation remains poorly understood. With the aim of comprehensively assessing the effectiveness of non-PAs as transient refugia and steppingstones during future climate-change-induced migration of species in China, a six-metric integrated framework was applied and statistics of these metrics for PAs and non-PAs are compared. Results reveal that, a greater area of non-PAs have a low velocity of climate change (VoCC) compared to that of PAs, and can therefore serve as temporary refugia for species. The disappearing climate index (DCI) and novel climate index (NCI) results show that some 17% of the subdivided climate classes within the PAs have changed. However, the displacement index (DI) results imply that nearly half (48.98%) of the PAs need non-PAs to provide transient refugia for climate-driven migration of species in PAs. The higher ratio of effective steppingstones measured using the climate corridor score (CCS) and landscape current flow (LCF) further emphasizes that non-PAs play a more significant role as steppingstones for climate-driven migration than do PAs in terms of both their structural and functional connectivity. Our research further demonstrates that a conservation approach that improves connectivity among PAs and considers Other Effective area-based Conservation Measures (OECMs) is essential for long-term biodiversity adaptation to climate change.

Density and abundance estimates of cetaceans in the Black Sea through aerial surveys (ASI/CeNoBS)

IntroductionPopulation abundance is amongst the most basic and crucial parameters for the assessment of conservation status of any species. Three species of odontocetes, all represented by local subspecies, inhabit the Black Sea: the Black Sea common dolphin Delphinus delphis ponticus, the Black Sea bottlenose dolphin Tursiops truncatus ponticus, and the Black Sea harbour porpoise Phocoena phocoena relicta. Their populations are threatened by multiple factors, including overfishing of their prey, bycatch, pollution and epizootics. Despite this, there are no basinwide estimates for any cetacean species in the Black Sea.MethodsIn 2019, a systematic study was carried out under the EU CeNoBS project. Six strata were designed in the waters of Bulgaria, Georgia, Romania, Türkiye and Ukraine, covering most of territorial and offshore waters, which were surveyed between June 19 and July 4. A line transect distance sampling approach was used, following predefined transects within each stratum, achieving a 5% coverage of the surveyed area. A total of 7,344 kilometres of transects were surveyed recording a total of 1,744 cetacean sightings. Design-based abundance estimates were obtained using a Multiple Covariate Distance Sampling (MCDS) approach. Model-based abundance estimates were also derived using a Generalized Additive Models (GAM) approach, linking species sightings with a number of environmental covariates (e.g., bathymetric features, sea surface temperature, chlorophyll-a) over a grid of 10x10 km.Results and discussionThe uncorrected (for perception and availability bias) estimates obtained through the model-based analysis were 108,283 (CV=0.07) common dolphins, 22,720 (CV=0.15) bottlenose dolphins and 93,808 (CV=0.06) harbour porpoises. These aerial surveys yielded the first insights on overall abundance, density and distribution, providing current regional baseline values and density maps for all three cetacean species of the Black Sea during the summer months, to be used for the elaboration of effective conservation measures and to address national and international requirements.

Global warming’s grip on agriculture: Strategies for sustainable production amidst climate change using regression based prediction

The intersection of climate change and food production is emerging as a critical area of research, focusing on both the potential benefits and the significant challenges posed by changing climate conditions. Elevated levels of carbon dioxide alongside rising global temperatures could theoretically boost crop yields, benefiting both human and animal consumption. This study examines the impact of various climate variables—temperature, humidity, precipitation, and soil moisture—on the primary production of essential foods such as rice, wheat, livestock, milk, eggs, vegetables, and fruits. Utilizing data from different countries spanning from 2000 to 2020, drawn from world development indicators, this research employs econometric analysis coupled with deep learning-based cluster analysis. Additionally, it projects future production trends up to 2100 using the moving average time series forecasting method. The findings reveal a direct correlation between climate variables and the production levels of vegetables and other food items, highlighting the immediate effects of climatic changes on agriculture. The study also points out the uneven distribution of these climate impacts, with developing countries facing more severe challenges due to their limited resources and adaptive capacities. This uneven impact contributes to increased uncertainty in food supply and affects market stability. Furthermore, concerns about food safety are intensifying under the influence of climate change, although some regions have implemented effective food conservation and control measures to mitigate these risks. This research underscores a complex landscape where the risks and benefits of climate change on food production are not uniformly distributed, but rather are influenced by a myriad of factors including geographic location, economic conditions, and the level of technological advancement in food safety practices. The nuanced understanding of these dynamics is crucial for developing targeted strategies to enhance food security in the face of a changing climate.

Spatial Study of Maleo Bird Habitat Area Change in Sulawesi

Maleo (Macrocephalon maleo), a unique Sulawesi endemic bird, is threatened by habitat loss. This study aims to analyse changes in maleo habitat areas in Sulawesi using spatial data and propose effective conservation measures. Spatial data in the form of maleo home range maps (IUCN) were used for overlay analysis. The results of the overlay analysis were compared with land cover data to identify changes in maleo habitat area. Of the total area of approximately 884,040 hectares, 14.13% or 124,887.63 hectares have been converted to agricultural land. The construction of new settlements has affected 0.46% or 4,087.5 hectares of the habitat. In addition, plantations have occupied 2.82% or 24,965.92 hectares of the maleo habitat area. Changes to maleo habitat areas in Gorontalo are significant, with agricultural land conversion, settlement development, and plantations being the main threats. Effective conservation efforts should focus on habitat restoration, law enforcement, community education, and the development of environmentally friendly economic alternatives.

How much information is there in arthropod data about the landscape around sampling sites? Exploring a theory based on site-specificity of organisms

The importance of local versus landscape drivers of biodiversity is presently intensely discussed, which raises the question what information ecological sampling can provide about the relative importance of these factors and how the amount of information is distributed over different spatial scales. Here, we have tried to assess the amount of the information in sets of arthropod samples on four landscape characteristics, i.e., the percentage arable land, semi-natural area, urban area, and edge density, at spatial scales varying from 100 m to 3000 m around sample sites. A large, existing dataset of different studies from all over Europe was used for that. Random Forests were used for predicting the characteristic classes of the surrounding area. The accuracy of the predictions, calculated as the reversed Normalized Brier score, was used as measure of the amount of information. The results showed that, at least in Europe, the amount of information is different between edge density on the one hand, and arable land, semi-natural area, and urban area on the other hand. In case of edge density, the information decreased from 100 m to 250 m around the sample site, then increased to get a hump-shape between 250 and 3000 m, with the maximum amount at 1750 m. In case of the other three landscape characteristics, the information decreased from 100 m to 1000 m, and then stayed equal or slightly increased. These results could be explained by assuming that organisms present at a sample site are either site-specific, or non-site-specific. Site-specific organisms are thought to enable predictions of characteristics at the small scales, while non-site-specific organisms are thought to indicate characteristics of larger scales. The results implied that, for study designs, it is important to be aware of the type of processes that result in the presence of species at sample sites. For effective conservation measures for arthropods, the results showed that landscapes at a spatial scale of at least 9.6 km2 should be taken in consideration in Europe.

Assessing habitat suitability and conservation priorities for flagship crane species across critical wetlands in northeast China

Protected areas are considered to be essential shelters for wildlife species and their habitats. At present, approximately 17 % of the world's land areas are under protection, but large conservation gaps still exist. Moreover, to fulfil the global commitment of protecting 30 % of land areas by 2030, identifying potential habitats and conservation priorities for threatened species are urgently required. Therefore, this study aims to assess the habitat suitability of five species of cranes, which are internationally recognized flagship species across critical wetlands in northeast China, and to identify gaps in the current PAs network using a combination of field-based investigation and a species distribution modelling approach. Line transects were repeatedly conducted at monthly intervals to cover the entire migratory and breeding seasons, with a total length of 4622 km. Information on crane occurrences and habitat conditions were recorded during the fieldwork. Results showed that distance from lakes predominantly determined the distribution of the cranes. Winter precipitation affected stopover determination of migratory cranes, and temperature affected the distribution of breeding cranes. The analysis showed that the current PA network could not cover the entire suitable habitat for all crane species, with >50 % of suitable migratory crane habitat and approximately 20 % of suitable breeding crane habitat remaining outside of the PAs. Correspondingly, two conservation priority areas were identified that require effective conservation measures. This study provides critical information on the habitat requirements of five crane species and identifies conservation priorities so that flagship species and critical wetlands can be effectively protected.

Establishing a protected area network in Xinlong with other effective area-based conservation measures.

Protected areas (PAs) are pivotal to biodiversity conservation, yet their efficacy is compromised by insufficient funding and management. So-called other effective area-based conservation measures (OECMs) present a paradigm shift and address PA limitations. Such measures can expand conservation areas, enhance connectivity, and improve the existing system. To assess the conservation status of biodiversity in Tibetan cultural areas in China, we investigated the spatial distribution of wildlife vulnerable to human disturbance (large- and medium-sized mammals and terrestrial birds) in Xinlong, a traditional Tibetan cultural area. In particular, we compared a PA (Xionglongxi Nature Reserve) and OECMs targeting species conservation. We also investigated the relationship of wildlife with human temporal and spatial activities. The OECMs complemented areas not covered by PA, especially in rich understory biodiversity regions. More species in OECMs tolerated human presence than species in the PA. Existing biodiversity reserves failed to cover areas of high conservation value in Tibet and offered limited protection capacity. Expanding PAs and identifying OECMs improved Xinlong's system by covering most biodiversity hotspots. Building on the tradition of wildlife conservation in Tibet, harnessing OECMs may be an effective means of augmenting biodiversity conservation capacity. We recommend further evaluation of OECMs effectiveness and coverage in Tibetan area as a way to enhance the current PA system.

Predicting suitable habitat for the endangered tree Ormosia microphylla in China

Climate change has significantly influenced the growth and distribution of plant species, particularly those with a narrow ecological niche. Understanding climate change impacts on the distribution and spatial pattern of endangered species can improve conservation strategies. The MaxEnt model is widely applied to predict species distribution and environmental tolerance based on occurrence data. This study investigated the suitable habitats of the endangered Ormosia microphylla in China and evaluated the importance of bioclimatic factors in shaping its distribution. Occurrence data and environmental variables were gleaned to construct the MaxEnt model, and the resulting suitable habitat maps were evaluated for accuracy. The results showed that the MaxEnt model had an excellent simulation quality (AUC = 0.962). The major environmental factors predicting the current distribution of O. microphylla were the mean diurnal range (bio2) and precipitation of the driest month (bio14). The current core potential distribution areas were concentrated in Guangxi, Fujian, Guizhou, Guangdong, and Hunan provinces in south China, demonstrating significant differences in their distribution areas. Our findings contribute to developing effective conservation and management measures for O. microphylla, addressing the critical need for reliable prediction of unfavorable impacts on the potential suitable habitats of the endangered species.

Seagrass mapping across the coast of Tanzania

Seagrasses are marine flowering plants found in both temperate and tropical coastal environments, that offer vital ecosystem services and adaptations. However, due to their proximity to the shore, they are heavily impacted by human activities and climate change, endangering seagrasses and their services. To manage seagrass meadows effectively and sustainably, detailed monitoring and data on distribution and extent are essential. Unfortunately, past under-prioritization of reliable baseline data impedes understanding of ecosystem dynamics and rapid response to declines. This study employs satellite imagery, coupled with ground truthing, to comprehensively report seagrass coverage along Tanzania's mainland coast and Zanzibar islands. By utilizing machine-learning technologies, the study achieves 84.2% accuracy, and found that Tanzania has 2817 km2 of seagrass coverage, which is five times higher than previously reported. In addition, the results also provide coverage of additional benthic habitats, such as corals, rocks/rubble, and sand. This study provides the first comprehensive overview of seagrass coverage in Tanzania and will function as a valuable tool and baseline for understanding and managing these habitats. The findings suggest that seagrasses in Tanzania are still relatively abundant, but due to a number of threats, including pollution, coastal development, and climate change, these habitats require improvement in management strategies including regular monitoring to understand their status and trends in their area coverage. The study highlights the significance of remote sensing and machine learning in mapping and monitoring coastal habitats across extensive geographical areas. We aspire for the presented results to be utilized among stakeholders and researchers to develop more effective conservation measures for seagrasses in Tanzania and the Western Indian Ocean.

Clarifying ‘long-term’ for protected areas and other effective area-based conservation measures (OECMs): why only 25 years of ‘intent’ does not qualify

The concept of ‘long-term’ is a key part of the definitions of both protected areas and other effective area-based conservation measures (OECMs). Draft principles for OECMs in Australia developed by the Australian Government propose a minimum period for OECMs of 25 years, where a landholder is not able to commit to in-perpetuity conservation. The proposal suggests this is consistent with IUCN Guidelines for Privately Protected Areas. As authors of the Guidelines for Privately Protected Areas we contend however that Australia’s proposed OECM guideline suggesting 25 years of “intention” to deliver biodiversity outcomes is ‘long-term’ is not supported by IUCN guidelines. Furthermore for protected areas, Australia has a long-established definition of ‘long-term’ – specifically a minimum timeframe of 99 years is required if permanent protection is not possible – embedded in both national policy and legal agreements. As national governments rapidly seek to define OECMs in response to the raised ambitions of the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework, there will be increasing interest in what counts towards Target 3. Ultimately, more land managed for conservation is good and all forms of area-based conservation should be encouraged. However, not all forms of area-based conservation qualify for inclusion in Target 3. Long-term intent and outcomes are fundamental, as outlined in the definitions of protected areas and OECMs.

Developing Statements of Compliance for UK protected areas and 'other effective area-based conservation measures'

The Protected Areas Working Group of the IUCN National Committee for the UK assessed 23 types of designation of land and sea for biodiversity conservation against IUCN definitions of 'protected area' and 'other effective area-based conservation measures'. This assessment supersedes Statements of Compliance published in 2014, reassigns several categories on the basis of new information and understanding, and provides guidance to UK and devolved governments, and their agencies, on which types of sites should be incorporated within the Global Biodiversity Framework Target 3 total. There is a need for urgent investment in improving the management effectiveness of all sites considered to ensure they can all effectively contribute to the achievement of UK's 30x30 target.

Clarifying 'long-term' for protected areas and other effective area-based conservation measures (OECMs): why only 25 years of 'intent' does not qualify

The concept of 'long-term' is a key part of the definitions of both protected areas and other effective area-based conservation measures (OECMs). Draft principles for OECMs in Australia developed by the Australian Government propose a minimum period for OECMs of 25 years, where a landholder is not able to commit to in-perpetuity conservation. The proposal suggests this is consistent with IUCN Guidelines for Privately Protected Areas. As authors of the Guidelines for Privately Protected Areas we contend however that Australia's proposed OECM guideline suggesting 25 years of "intention" to deliver biodiversity outcomes is 'long-term' is not supported by IUCN guidelines. Furthermore for protected areas, Australia has a long-established definition of 'long-term' - specifically a minimum timeframe of 99 years is required if permanent protection is not possible - embedded in both national policy and legal agreements. As national governments rapidly seek to define OECMs in response to the raised ambitions of the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework, there will be increasing interest in what counts towards Target 3. Ultimately, more land managed for conservation is good and all forms of area-based conservation should be encouraged. However, not all forms of area-based conservation qualify for inclusion in Target 3. Long-term intent and outcomes are fundamental, as outlined in the definitions of protected areas and OECMs.

A cost-effective approach to identify conservation priority for 30 × 30 biodiversity target on the premise of food security

There is a growing consensus on expanding protected and conserved areas for biodiversity conservation. Nevertheless, it remains uncertain where to expand conserved areas as well as what appropriate management modalities to choose. Moreover, conserved areas expansion should be balanced with crop-related food security challenges. We developed a framework to identify cost-effective areas for expanding protected areas and other effective area-based conservation measures (OECMs), and applied it to China. By combining templates for biodiversity conservation priorities at global scale and the priority conservation areas based on 2413 vertebrates' extinction risk in China, we identified areas with high biodiversity conservation value. We then categorized the priority areas according to human impact, indicating the potential cost of management. As a result of combining the two aspects above, we identified the most cost-effective areas for expanding protected areas and OECMs while excluding both the current and predicted croplands that can be used for food security. The results show that China could expand its protected areas to 22.81 % of the country's land area and establish OECMs in areas accounting for 9.82 % and 17.37 % of the country's land area in a cost-effective approach in two scenarios. In the ambitious scenario, protected and conserved areas would account for a maximum of 40.18 % of terrestrial area, with an average 62.67 % coverage of the 2413 species' suitable habitat. To achieve the goals of protected and conserved areas in Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework, countries could apply this framework to identify their protected areas and OECM expansion priorities.

Improving the knowledge base of Vulnerable Marine Ecosystems’ distribution in the Amendolara Bank (Ionian Sea)

The Amendolara Bank was recently designated as a Site of Community Importance; however, information on its ecosystems remains limited, with a particular dearth of knowledge regarding the deeper zone (>100 m). Previous studies have discovered the existence of Vulnerable Marine Ecosystems (VMEs) within the bank, underscoring the necessity for more comprehensive data and its significance in terms of conservation in the Ionian Sea. This study aims to investigate various aspects of the bank using Remotely Operated Vehicles (ROVs) to shed light on the possible presence of VME indicator species, their relationship with environmental variables, their connection with the observed fish, and to assess anthropogenic impact via the identification of fishing gear within the study area. This present research provides new information on the biodiversity of the Amendolara Bank, revealing the presence of four VME indicator species including the first sightings of black coral Antipathella subpinnata and the precious red coral Corallium rubrum. Moreover, it provides evidence on the interaction between fish fauna and VME indicator species as well as signs of anthropogenic impact from abandoned, lost, or otherwise discarded fishing gear (ALDFG). These findings highlight the urgent need for additional research to improve the knowledge base on the biodiversity of this unique spot in the Ionian Sea which would in turn ensure the development and implementation of more effective conservation and management measures.

Using the dead to infer about the living: Amphibian roadkill spatiotemporal dynamics suggest local populations' reduction

Roads represent one of the main sources of wildlife mortality, population decline, and isolation, especially for low-vagility animal groups. It is still not clearly understood how wildlife populations respond to these negative effects over space and time. Most studies on wildlife road mortality do not consider the spatial and temporal components simultaneously, or the imperfect roadkill detection, both of which could lead to inaccurate assumptions and unreliable mitigation actions. In this study, we applied a multi-season occupancy model to a 14-year amphibian mortality dataset collected along 120 km of roads, combined with freely available landscape and remote sensing metrics, to identify the spatiotemporal patterns of amphibian roadkill in a Mediterranean landscape in Southern Portugal. Our models showed an explicit general decrease in amphibian roadkill. The Iberian painted frog (Discoglossus galganoi) experienced roadkill declines over time of ∼70 %, while the spiny common toad (Bufo spinosus) and the fire salamander (Salamandra salamandra) had a loss of nearly 50 %, and the Southern marbled newt (Triturus pygmaeus) had 40 %. Despite the decreasing trend in roadkill, spatial patterns seem to be rather stable from year to year.Multi-season occupancy models, when combined with relevant landscape and remote sensing predictors, as well as long-term monitoring data, can describe dynamic changes in roadkill over space and time. These patterns are valuable tools for understanding roadkill patterns and drivers in Mediterranean landscapes, enabling the differentiation of road sections with varying roadkill over time. Ultimately, this information may contribute to the development of effective conservation measures.

Alcon Blues: recent shifts in limiting habitat factors challenge the persistence of an endangered butterfly

AbstractInsect habitat specialists have declined more than generalists over the last decades. Understanding how habitat requirements and increased climate variability interact to explain persistence of populations is needed to enable effective conservation measures. Habitat specialists with a complex life cycle, such as myrmecophilous butterflies, are likely to be most vulnerable. Here, we explored to what extent the habitat factors explaining population persistence of the Alcon blue (Phengaris alcon), changed over a 25-year period in the Netherlands, contrasting the recent years 2018–2022 with extreme droughts with the preceding period 1998–2017 characterized by occasional climatic extremes. Population persistence of P. alcon over 1998–2017 as explained by historical habitat conditions was significantly higher in large heathland areas with large patches of its host plant Gentiana pneumonanthe. On the basis of current conditions, population persistence until 2017 was best explained by a combination of host plant area and quality. In contrast, persistence over the recent drought years was most closely associated with increasing occupancy of the optimal host ant Myrmica ruginodis and lower occupancy of competitive and predatory Lasius ants.Implications for insect conservation We conclude that critical habitat conditions change under increasing climatic extremes and that the availability of sufficient optimal host ants has become more critical than that of host plants. The results emphasise that both large-scale hydrological restoration and small-scale management for heterogeneity are necessary to preserve P. alcon and its habitat in the Netherlands. This is also likely to apply to other habitat specialists with complex life cycles from threatened habitats.

Other Effective Area-Based Conservation Measures (OECMs) in Australia: Key Considerations for Assessment and Implementation

Other effective area-based conservation measures (OECMs) have been a feature of global biodiversity targets since 2010 (Aichi Targets, Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework), although the concept has only relatively recently been formally defined. Although uptake has been limited to date, there is much interest in identifying OECMs to contribute to the target of protecting at least 30% of terrestrial, freshwater and ocean areas by 2030, in conjunction with protected areas. Australia has a long history of protected area development across public, private and Indigenous lands, but consideration of OECMs in policy has recently begun in that country. We review principles proposed by the Australian Government for OECMs in Australia and highlight where these deviate from global guidance or established Australian area-based policy. We examined various land use categories and conservation mechanisms to determine the likelihood of these categories/mechanisms meeting the OECM definition, with a particular focus on longevity of the mechanism to sustain biodiversity. We identified that the number of categories/mechanisms that would meet the OECM definition is relatively small. A number of potentially perverse outcomes in classifying an area as an OECM are highlighted in order to guide proactive policy and program design to prevent such outcomes occurring.

Declínio da distribuição potencial das espécies de Samambaias sob cenários de mudanças climáticas

Purpose: The potential impact of climate change can lead to a reduction of up to 46% in the distribution of ferns within suitable habitats. In this study, we employed predictive models for species distribution to gain insights into the effects of climate change and edapotopographic factors on ferns, anticipating declines in forested environments particularly vulnerable. Material and methods: The research focused on the Neotropical region, from Mexico to Patagonia, including the Caribbean islands, with an emphasis on four fern species. Nineteen climatic and nine edapotopographic variables were used to develop models for both current and future scenarios under different climate conditions. This highlighted the importance of identifying areas at risk to implement effective conservation measures. Results and conclusion: The results illustrate the present distribution of species in the region, while projections for 2070 indicate substantial reductions in suitable habitats under various climate scenarios. The study validates the hypothesis of a decline in forested areas, emphasizing the susceptibility of ferns. Furthermore, it highlights a notable loss of suitability for specific species, such as Lygodium venustum, underscoring the significance of ferns in ecosystems. The uncertainty analysis points out the robustness of the findings, emphasizing the imperative for mitigating carbon emissions and implementing conservation strategies to address forthcoming challenges in biodiversity preservation amid environmental changes.