Declínio da distribuição potencial das espécies de Samambaias sob cenários de mudanças climáticas

Abstract

Purpose: The potential impact of climate change can lead to a reduction of up to 46% in the distribution of ferns within suitable habitats. In this study, we employed predictive models for species distribution to gain insights into the effects of climate change and edapotopographic factors on ferns, anticipating declines in forested environments particularly vulnerable. Material and methods: The research focused on the Neotropical region, from Mexico to Patagonia, including the Caribbean islands, with an emphasis on four fern species. Nineteen climatic and nine edapotopographic variables were used to develop models for both current and future scenarios under different climate conditions. This highlighted the importance of identifying areas at risk to implement effective conservation measures. Results and conclusion: The results illustrate the present distribution of species in the region, while projections for 2070 indicate substantial reductions in suitable habitats under various climate scenarios. The study validates the hypothesis of a decline in forested areas, emphasizing the susceptibility of ferns. Furthermore, it highlights a notable loss of suitability for specific species, such as Lygodium venustum, underscoring the significance of ferns in ecosystems. The uncertainty analysis points out the robustness of the findings, emphasizing the imperative for mitigating carbon emissions and implementing conservation strategies to address forthcoming challenges in biodiversity preservation amid environmental changes.