Abstract
Habitat loss and fragmentation are among the biggest threats to amphibian populations and anthropogenic climate change may exacerbate these. The response of Iran's amphibians to climate change is uncertain and yet making an accurate prediction of how the species will respond is critical for conservation. We assessed how expected future climate scenarios before the years 2050 and 2070 might influence the geographic distribution and habitat connectivity of the Lorestan Mountain Newt (Neurergus kaiseri). We examined presence data (2010–2018) of the species according to environmental and anthropogenic factors, and created an ensemble model of habitat suitability based on eight species distribution models (SDMs). Then, we used the concept of circuit theory to estimate potential linkages between the habitat patches. We applied the ensemble calibrated models and quantified spatial connectivity to assess the influence of climate change on the species range for the years 2050 and 2070 under four representative concentration pathways (RCPs) of three general circulation models (GCMs). Models using current climate predicted that 6.8% of the 267,609 km2 study area has suitable conditions for the species, but only about 7% of these climatically suitable landscapes are covered by conservation areas. Temperature and precipitation-related climatic variables made the largest contribution to the distribution model. Under projected climate conditions, we found a decline of 56–98% of the suitable habitat and predicted a potential for distributional shifts towards higher elevations by 2050 and 2070. Although there is relatively good connectivity between many habitat patches today, models predict that suitable areas available to the newt will become increasingly fragmented under projected climate change scenarios. Our findings support the hypothesis that projected climatic shifts will negatively influence suitable habitats of amphibians and likely cause upward shifts in elevation in range of some species. Identifying potentially suitable habitats and important linkages between habitat patches under different climate scenarios are crucial steps in conservation planning for the Lorestan Mountain Newt.
Highlights
Climate and landscape characteristics strongly affect species distributions as well as connectivity among populations (Velo-Anton et al, 2013; Early and Sax, 2014; Kusza et al, 2019; Archis et al, 2018)
Because the aim of the study was to figure out the consequences of climate variable selection on distribution forecasts, we changed only the climate data when projecting to various time periods, while keeping the values of all other variables constant over time
The occurrence of N. kaiseri has been confirmed from Lorestan and Khuzestan provinces and, not surprisingly, our models predicted that the southern areas of Lorestan province and northern and northwestern areas of Khuzestan province contain the majority of suitable habitat for the species
Summary
Climate and landscape characteristics strongly affect species distributions as well as connectivity among populations (Velo-Anton et al, 2013; Early and Sax, 2014; Kusza et al, 2019; Archis et al, 2018). Seasonal and annual patterns of temperature and precipitation, as the two most important factors in the climate, will influence vital processes of amphibian populations (Dervo et al, 2016), as well as performance of individuals (Clusella-Trullas et al, 2011; Archis et al, 2018). Habitat specialists, those with sensitivity to environmental changes and lower dispersal ability, are vulnerable to the synergistic effects of climate and landscape change (e.g., fragmentation, urbanization) (Mestre, 2017). Forecasting how a species will respond to predicted climate changes requires an understanding of species-specific vulnerabilities, such as the ecological constraints on dispersal (Velo-Anton et al, 2013)
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