Ecosystem Services Model Research Articles

Optimization of ecological network to improve water conservation services in the Nianchu River Basin

Against the backdrop of water resource depletion in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, water conservation services (WCS) have emerged as critical ecosystem services warranting attention. Adjusting the ecological network (EN) structure and optimizing topological relationships among landscape elements are instrumental in facilitating ecological processes, constituting an effective approach for enhancing WCS. We employed the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs model to simulate the WCS value in the Nianchu River Basin and used the Minimum Cumulative Resistance model in combination with the Linkage Mapper to construct an EN. Through topological analysis based on complex network theory, we examined the EN topology and identified ecological pinch points and barriers by applying circuit theory. According to the correlation between EN topology and WCS, and taking into account local vegetation restoration potential, we ultimately optimized the EN to enhance the WCS value. The results revealed a positive correlation between the WCS value and betweenness centrality (r = 0.86, p < 0.01) of forest patches, as well as with the clustering coefficient of grassland patches (r = 0.44, p < 0.05). Following the optimization of key areas with restoration potential, we enhanced the EN structure by adding six new patches, eliminating four redundant corridors, and establishing 11 new corridors. The optimized EN demonstrated enhanced stability in robustness tests, indicated by a reduced slope of edge recovery against malicious attacks (from −0.0224 to −0.0199) and an increase in the WCS value of 630,311.6 m³. This study highlights the importance of landscape spatial structure in enhancing ecosystem services, providing valuable insights for sustainable water resource management in the ecologically sensitive regions of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau.

Assessing the Interaction Impacts of Multi-Scenario Land Use and Landscape Pattern on Water Ecosystem Services in the Greater Bay Area by Multi-Model Coupling

Water ecosystem services (WESs) are intrinsically associated with the livelihood of urban residents and are frequently disrupted by human activities. Land use and landscape patterns are key driving factors of alterations in WESs. However, existing research primarily quantifies single-factor influences and often overlooks the interactions between these factors. This study addresses this gap by employing a multi-model coupling approach, integrating the Patch-generating Land Use Simulation (PLUS), Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Trade-offs (InVEST) model, and Geographical Detector (GD) models alongside various indicators to analyse the evolution of land use, landscape patterns and WESs in the Greater Bay Area from 2000 to 2020, and to simulate spatio-temporal change patterns in different scenarios from 2030 to 2050. Additionally, this study examines the multi-factorial interactions between land use, landscape patterns, and WESs. The results indicate that (1) urbanisation steadily increased, leading to intensified landscape fragmentation, and water yield (WY) and total phosphorus (TP) consistently increased, while total nitrogen (TN) in water gradually decreased; (2) urban areas exerted the most significant impact on WY in the Greater Bay Area while Patch density (PD) had a stronger influence on WY, and Shannon’s diversity index (SHDI) had the most pronounced effect on TN and TP; (3) the interaction between any two land-use types or landscape indices exerted a greater impact on WESs compared with the impact of individual factors alone. The interaction between urban areas and cropland substantially influenced WY (q¯ = 0.634) and most strongly affected TN and TP in water (q¯ = 0.74 and 0.73, respectively). SHDI and PD had the most significant impact on WY in the economic development scenario (q¯ = 0.19) and exhibited the greatest influence on the TN and TP levels in the ecological priority scenario (q¯ = 0.12 and 0.15, respectively). Our findings can provide theoretical and technical support for the integrated scientific planning of regional water ecosystems and the development of comprehensive land use policies in the future.

Combined effects of urbanization and climate variability on water and carbon balances in a rice paddy-dominated basin in southern China

Abstract Urbanization is known to elevate storm runoff, but how it influences carbon cycle and ecosystem productivity through altering the evapotranspiration (ET) process is less clear. We examined the combined effects of urbanization including change in impervious surface area (ISA) and climate variability on the water and carbon balances of the Qinhuai River Basin (QRB) over 2001–2018. QRB represents a typical rice paddy-dominated region that experienced rapid urbanization in southern China. We improved a monthly scale water supply stress index ecosystem service model by integrating local eddy flux measurements and high-resolution remote sensing data. We found a significant downward trend in both ET (−4.6 mm yr−1, p &lt; 0.05) and gross primary productivity (GPP) (−10.4 gC m−2 yr−1, p &lt; 0.05) but a significant upward trend in water yield (Q) (+28.6 mm yr−1, p &lt; 0.05). These ecosystem function changes coincided with a 96% increase in urban areas, 1.9-fold increase in ISA, and a 37% reduction in rice paddy fields. The mean annual watershed GPP decreased from 1048 gC m−2 to 998 gC m−2 while the annual Q increased from 284 mm to 669 mm from 2001 to 2018. Scenario modeling experiments suggested that the negative impacts of loss of rice paddy fields and increase in ISA on ET and GPP overwhelmed the positive impacts of climate warming. The reduction in GPP and increase in Q were largely attributed to the increases in ISA, not necessarily due to changes in land use types (e.g. urban area). The expansion of urban area, increase in ISA and reduction in leaf area index, and increase in precipitation explained the increase in Q. Our research offers insight about the interactions of carbon and water cycles through the critical ET processes under a changing climate and land surface characteristics at a watershed level. Our modeling tool and analysis provides land managers and policy makers information for designing effective ‘Urban Nature-based Solutions’ to mitigate the negative environmental effects of urbanization on carbon and water resources.

Significant negative impact of human activities on carbon storage in the Yellow River Delta over the past three decades

With the increasing intensification of human activities, significant changes in land use and land cover (LULC) have posed a severe threat to the carbon storage capacity of wetland ecosystems. A deep understanding of this impact is crucial for protecting regional ecosystems and promoting sustainable development. This study utilized the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs (InVEST) model and the human activity intensity (HAI) index to conduct detailed grid analysis and global analysis of carbon storage through creating fishnet system and explored the complex relationship between carbon storage and HAI in the Yellow River Delta (YRD), China. The results indicated that over the past 30 years, natural wetlands such as meadow wetlands and salt marshes in the study area had undergone significant degradation due to escalating human activities, while artificial wetlands and non-wetland areas expanded. Concurrently, the total regional carbon storage had declined by 2.08 Tg, representing a significant drop of 8.22 % in the YRD from 1990 to 2020. Among them, dry land, as the primary land type, served as the most crucial carbon pool. Additionally, the human activity intensity of land surface (HAILS) increased significantly, with a growth rate of 37.27 %. HAI mapping revealed a continuous expansion of areas with high HAI. In contrast, the Yellow River Delta National Nature Reserve (YRDNNR) maintained relatively low HAI. Correlation analysis further showed the significant negative correlation (p < 0.01) between carbon storage and HAI, with r values of grid analysis ranging from −0.1395 to −0.0334, while that for global analysis was −0.9643, respectively. This reflected the spatial heterogeneity and agglomeration effects of data analysis across different scales. This study provides valuable insights for achieving the “dual carbon” goals and supporting the conservation and management of wetland ecosystems.

Integrated spatial prioritization of urban nature-based solutions for climate adaptation, mitigation, and justice

ABSTRACT In densely populated cities, people confront multiple impacts of climate change, including stormwater runoff, flooding, heat waves, and health issues. To address these impacts, nature-based solutions (NbS) have gained significant attention in recent years due to their potential to contribute to sustainability, resilience, and ecosystem services. Nevertheless, more research is required to understand the wider potential of NbS and to identify priority areas for their deployment. This study developed an analytical approach and implemented it in the Tehran Metropolitan Area (TMA) by considering factors related to NbS co-benefits. The approach included spatial prioritization, spatial correlation analysis, and suitability analysis. It combines a Geographic Information System, Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Trade-offs (InVEST) model, Zonation, Best-Worst Method, Bivariate Local Indicator of Spatial Autocorrelation analysis (BiLISA), a Fuzzy Inference System, and Boolean overlay analysis. The results include maps showing priority areas for different types of NbS and spatial co-benefits and mismatches. High-priority areas are located in disadvantaged areas. In total, 105.73 km2 (17% of the TMA) was designated as highly prioritized. We show that various NbS interventions are applicable, with green roofs and rainwater harvesting being the most feasible. This study can assist decision-makers in optimizing NbS to deliver maximum co-benefits.

Evaluation and Optimization Model of Green Space Ecosystem Services in Urbanization Process

Evaluation and Optimization Model of Green Space Ecosystem Services in Urbanization Process

Quantifying the Effect of Land Use and Land Cover Changes on Spatial-Temporal Dynamics of Water in Hanjiang River Basin

As a vital part of the geo-environment and water cycle, ecosystem health and human development are dependent on water resources. Water supply and demand are influenced significantly by land use and cover change (LUCC) which shapes the surface ecosystems by altering their structure and function. Under future climate change scenarios, LUCC may greatly impact regional water balance, yet the impact is still not well understood. Therefore, examining the spatial relationship between LUCC and water yield services is crucial for optimizing land resources and informing sustainable development policies. In this study, we focused on the Hanjiang River Basin and used the patch-generating land use simulation (PLUS) model, coupled with the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs (InVEST) model, to assess water yield services under three Shared Socioeconomic Pathway and Representative Concentration Pathway (SSP-RCP) scenarios. For the first time, we considered the impact of future changes in socio-economic and water use indicators on water demand using correction factors and ARIMA projections. The relationship between water supply and demand was explored using this approach, and LUCC’s effects on this balance are also discussed. Results indicate that: (1) The patterns of LUCC are similar for the three scenarios from 2030 to 2050, with varying levels of decrease for cropland and significant growth of built-up areas, with increases of 6.77% to 19.65% (SSP119), 7.66% to 22.65% (SSP245), and 15.88% to 46.69% (SSP585), respectively, in the three scenarios relative to 2020; (2) The future supply and demand trends for the three scenarios of produced water services are similar, and the overall supply and demand risks are all on a downward trend. Water demand continues to decline, and by 2050, the water demand of the 3 scenarios will decrease by 96.275×108t, 81.210×108t, and 84.13×108t relative to 2020, respectively; while supply decreases from 2030 to 2040 and rises from 2040 to 2050; (3) Both water supply and demand distributions exhibit spatial correlation, and the distribution of hotspots is similar. The water supply and demand are well-matched, with an overall supply-demand ratio greater than 1.5; (4) LUCC can either increase or decrease water yield. Built-up land provides more water supply compared to other land types, while forest land has the lowest average water supply. Limiting land use type conversions can enhance the water supply.

Mapping Biodiversity Conservation Priorities for Protected Areas for Spatial Optimization: A Case Study in the Songnen Plain, China.

The decline in biodiversity poses a serious threat to natural ecosystems and has become one of the most pressing global environmental issues. Establishing conservation priorities for protected areas (PAs) is one of the most direct and effective biodiversity conservation measures. However, conservation gaps arise as a result of existing problems in spatial layout of PAs, including overlapping protection scopes, artificial fragmentation of natural ecological regions, as well as "over-protection" and "over-exploitation." To optimize the spatial layout of PAs and improve the efficiency of biodiversity conservation, we employed the Habitat Quality module of the Integrated Assessment of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs (InVEST) model and the Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) model to assess the PAs in the Songnen Plain, China. The combined model (MaxEnt-InVEST) revealed that the conservation priorities for PAs in the Songnen Plain occupied a total area of 14,764.14 km2 (10.24% of the total area of the Songnen Plain). The conservation priorities outside PAs occupied a total area of 7858.45 km2 (5.45% of the total area of the Songnen Plain) and were primarily distributed in the northeastern, central, and southwestern regions of the Songnen Plain. This indicated that existing PAs did not offer adequate protection for local biodiversity. The consistency of our combined modeling framework was 72.11%, which enabled a more accurate assessment of biodiversity hotspots and respects the land uses of the Songnen Plain. In addition, the modeling framework successfully created maps of conservation gaps of biodiversity hotspots based on actual species distribution data and considers current land uses. Our study was aimed at optimizing the spatial conservation efficiency of the Songnen Plain by assessing the conservation gaps in the Songnen Plain. It could provide a reference for the future development of a PA system centering on national parks.

Evaluating the Effects of Wetland Restoration on Ecosystem Services Using InVEST and Geostatistics: A Case Study of Dongting Lake in China

Ecological restoration projects aim to recover ecosystems that have been degraded, damaged, or destroyed. The effective assessment of these projects is crucial for ensuring that restoration goals are met and for guiding future efforts. The Poplar Ecological Restoration Project (PERP), focused on removing floodplain poplar plantations, is a key environmental initiative in China to preserve the ecological functions and services of the Dongting Lake freshwater wetland complex. Understanding the dynamic changes in ecosystem services and their trade-offs/synergies before and after the project is crucial for ensuring that ecosystem services are maintained and enhanced. This study selected three key ecosystem services, water conservation, carbon storage, and habitat quality, as indicators to assess the PERP. Using the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Trade-offs (InVEST) model and geostatistical methods, including the Spearman correlation analysis and spatial autocorrelation analysis, we explored the ecological outcomes of the project. The results indicated that since its implementation in 2014, the PERP has significantly altered the land use and land cover (LULC) in the lake. Most of the former plantations have been converted into reedbeds (17,404 ha), followed by sedgelands (3841 ha), mudflats (443 ha), shallow waters (382 ha), and deep waters (301 ha). During this period, water conservation and habitat quality initially decreased and then increased, while carbon storage continuously declined. Overall, all assessed services showed an increasing trend except for carbon storage, resulting in a slight decrease in the integrated ecosystem services. Moreover, there were strong bivariate associations among the three investigated ecosystem services, and the synergies were strengthened during the project. Importantly, these synergies became positive after the PERP, meaning that the improvement of one service enhanced others, potentially leading to a more sustainable and resilient ecosystem.

Humans versus models: a comparative assessment of ecosystem services models and stakeholders’ perceptions

Mapping the production of Ecosystem Services (ES) is imperative for sustainable ecosystem management. Likewise, incorporating expert knowledge enhances ES research. Here, we calculate eight multi-temporal ES indicators for mainland Portugal using a spatial modelling approach. These indicators are then integrated into the novel ASEBIO index—Assessment of Ecosystem Services and Biodiversity—which depicts a combined ES potential based on CORINE Land Cover, using a multi-criteria evaluation method with weights defined by stakeholders through an Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP). Outputs from the modelling show how ES have changed in Portugal in relation to land use changes, including trade-offs between 1990 and 2018. The composed ASEBIO index is compared against the stakeholders’ valuation of ES potential for the year 2018. The results reveal a significant mismatch between the ES potential perceived by stakeholders and the models, with stakeholder estimates being 32.8% higher on average. All the selected ES were overestimated by the stakeholders. Drought regulation and erosion prevention have the highest contrasts, while water purification, food production and recreation are the most closely aligned among both approaches. Providing the first national overview about the status of multiple ES over a 28 year-period, our findings highlight potential disparities between data-driven and stakeholder-based evaluations. Therefore, we suggest the need for integrative strategies that consider scientific models with expert knowledge for more effective ES assessments and land-use planning. This approach could help bridge the gap between data-driven models and human perspectives, resulting in more balanced and inclusive decision-making.

How to Achieve the Ecological Sustainability Goal of Ecologically Fragile Areas on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau: A Multi-Scenario Simulation of Lanzhou-Xining Urban Agglomerations

The future of the ecologically fragile areas on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (QTP) is a matter of concern. With the implementation of the Western Development Strategy, the Lanzhou-Xining Urban Agglomeration (LXUA) has encountered conflicts and compromises between urban expansion, ecological protection, and farmland protection policies in the rapid development of the past 2 decades. These deeply affect the land use layout, making the ecological sustainable development of the ecologically fragile areas of the QTP a complex and urgent issue. Exploring the impact of different policy-led land use patterns on regional ecosystem services is of great significance for the sustainable development of ecologically fragile areas and the formulation of relevant policies. Following the logical main line of “history-present-future”, the Patch-level Land Use Simulation (PLUS) model, which explores potential factors of historical land use, and the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Trade-offs (InVEST) model were used to construct three future scenarios for the modernization stage in 2031 dominated by different land use policies in this study. These scenarios include the Business-as-Usual Scenario (BS), the Cropland Protection Scenario (CP), and the Ecological Protection Scenario (EP). The study analyzed and predicted land use changes in the LXUA from 2001 to 2031 and assessed carbon storage, habitat quality at different time points, and water yield in 2021. The results indicated that land use changes from 2001 to 2021 reflect the impacts and conflicts among the Western Development Strategy, ecological protection policies, and cropland preservation policies. In 2031, construction land continues to increase under all three scenarios, expanding northwards around Lanzhou, consistent with the actual “northward expansion” trend of Lanzhou City. Changes in other land uses are in line with the directions guided by land use policy. By 2031, carbon storage and habitat quality decline under all scenarios, with the highest values observed in the EP scenario, the lowest carbon storage in the BS scenario, and the lowest habitat quality in the CP scenario. Regarding water yield, the LXUA primarily relies on alpine snowmelt, with construction land overlapping high evapotranspiration areas. Based on the assessment of ecosystem services, urban expansion, delineation of ecological red lines, and improvement of cropland quality in the LXUA were proposed. These findings and recommendations can provide a scientific basis for policy makers and planning managers in the future.

Understanding future water-carbon-land coupled systems in the era of COP 27: The case of the Hanjiang river Basin, China

The 27th Conference of the Parties (COP 27) emphasized addressing this century's interconnected challenges of food, water, and energy. This study proposes a coupled ecosystem service and multi-scenario land-use change simulation model designed to investigate the future dynamics of water-carbon-land coupled systems in the Hanjiang River Basin (HJRB), the primary objective is to provide valuable insights that can inform strategic spatial management decisions, aligning with the ambitious objectives outlined in COP 27. Specifically, this study utilized the PLUS model, InVEST model, and redundancy analysis to comprehensively analyze the interplay between ecosystem services and land-use changes, with a specific focus on water, carbon, and land dynamics. The results showed that regardless of the simulated scenarios, there was a consistent pattern observed in the changes of land use types within the HJRB, with a decrease in farmland and an increase in forest. However, the water area showed an increasing trend in all scenarios, especially in the ecological land protection (ELP) and sustainable development scenarios. Furthermore, the ELP scenario effectively suppressed the expansion of building land and the erosion of ecological land. Ecosystem services under different scenarios showed similar spatial distribution patterns but presented varying degrees of change related to the impact of future land use and urban development on ecosystem services. The water yield (WY), carbon storage, and soil conservation in the upstream areas increased to varying degrees, while those in the downstream areas decreased. In conclusion, precipitation, land use/land cover change, DEM (Digital Elevation Model), and NDVI (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index) were the main driving factors affecting ecosystem services, with precipitation having the most significant and enduring impact on WY. This study supports the adoption of targeted spatial management measures to promote sustainable development and enhance human well-being.

Quantifying Ecosystem Services to Maximize Co-Benefits under Market-Based Conservation Solutions in the Edisto River Basin, South Carolina

As climate change intensifies, the need to conserve ecosystem services and our natural resources increases. Nature-based solutions projects that focus on sequestering carbon can also have significant impacts on the ecosystem services in the project area. Herein, we describe a method to quantify ecosystem services via the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs (Version 3.14) model. We use those quantitative methods to show where carbon projects and other restoration projects could increase certain ecosystem services through best practices. Using the Edisto River Basin in South Carolina as a study site, we developed a spatial additionality model that shows where water retention, carbon, and sediment retention can be improved. InVEST modeling showed high levels of sediment export and water yield, with 0.12 tons/acre of sediment exported and 256.3 cm/acre of water yielded downstream on average. The model indicates that over 70,000 acres comprised of parcels greater than 20 contiguous acres could implement management to increase ecosystem service provisioning. This model output shows spatially where best management practices can be implemented to achieve positive outcomes and where carbon projects could be implemented to derive additional co-benefits. Furthermore, it can be used as a tool for measurement and verification as data is updated.

Evaluation and Trade-Offs/Synergies of Ecosystem Services in an Ecologically Fragile Region: A Case Study of Western Jilin Province

Ecosystem services (ES) are the foundation for the survival and development of human society. It is of great significance to clarify the trade-off and synergy between different types of ES in promoting regional sustainable development. This paper selects the western Jilin Province as a case, focusing on exploring the trade-offs and synergies of ES in ecologically fragile areas, enriching the geographical types of research on the relationships between ecosystem services. Utilizing the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Trade-offs (InVEST) model, this study focused on quantifying four pivotal services—carbon storage, water yield, soil conservation, and habitat quality index—over a two-decade span encompassing the years 2000, 2010, and 2020, and analyzed the trade-offs/synergies between the four ecosystem service functions. The results show that from 2000 to 2020, among the four ecosystem services, water yield and soil conservation increased by 13.57 × 109 m3 and 220.61 × 106 t, respectively, while carbon storage and habitat quality decreased by 5.09 × 106 milligrams and 0.01 units, respectively. At the regional scale, there were only synergistic relationships between carbon storage and soil conservation, and carbon storage and habitat quality. This study provides scientific references to promote sustainable development in the western Jilin Province and offers new insights into the trade-off and synergy of ecosystem services in ecologically fragile areas.

Habitat quality outweighs the human footprint in driving spatial patterns of Cetartiodactyla in the Kunlun-Pamir Plateau

The Human Footprint (HFP) and Habitat Quality (HQ) are critical factors influencing the species' distribution, yet their relation to biodiversity, particularly in mountainous regions, still remains inadequately understood. This study aims to identify the primary factor that affects the biodiversity by comparing the impact of the HFP and HQ on the species’ richness of Cetartiodactyla in the Kunlun-Pamir Plateau and four protected areas: The Pamir Plateau Wetland Nature Reserve, Taxkorgan Wildlife Nature Reserve, Middle Kunlun Nature Reserve and Arjinshan Nature Reserve through multi-source satellite remote sensing product data. By integrating satellite data with the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Trade-offs (InVEST)HQ model and utilizing residual and linear regression analysis, we found that: (1) The Wildness Area (WA) predominantly underwent a transition to a Highly Modified Area (HMA) and Intact Area (IA), with a notable 12.02% rise in stable regions, while 58.51% rather experienced a negligible decrease. (2) From 1985 to 2020, the Kunlun-Pamir Plateau has seen increases in the forestland, water, cropland and shrubland, alongside declines in bare land and grassland, denoting considerable land cover changes. (3) The HQ degradation was significant, with 79.81% of the area showing degradation compared to a 10.65% improvement, varying across the nature reserves. (4) The species richness of Cetartiodactyla was better explained by HQ than by HFP on the Kunlun-Pamir Plateau (52.99% vs. 47.01%), as well as in the Arjinshan Nature Reserve (81.57%) and Middle Kunlun Nature Reserve (56.41%). In contrast, HFP was more explanatory in the Pamir Plateau Wetland Nature Reserve (88.89%) and the Taxkorgan Wildlife Nature Reserve (54.55%). Prioritizing the restoration of degraded habitats areas of the Kunlun Pamir Plateau could enhance Cetartiodactyla species richness. These findings provide valuable insights for the biodiversity management and conservation strategies in the mountainous regions.

Understanding scale effects and differentiation mechanisms of ecosystem services tradeoffs and synergies relationship: A case study of the Lishui River Basin, China

Understanding the scale effect of relationships among ecosystem services (ESs) and the factors influencing these relationships, is vital for sustainable management of ESs. Previous research has focused less on multiple scale units, and the driving mechanisms behind ESs interactions remain unclear. Therefore, in this study, we assessed the spatial distribution of water yield (WY), water purification (WP), and soil conservation (SC) across four spatial scales (3 km × 3 km grid, 5 km × 5 km grid, sub-watershed, and county scales) in the Lishui River Basin of China during 2020. Using the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Trade-offs (InVEST) model, geographical weighted regression, and Pearson correlation analysis, we examined tradeoffs and synergies among these ESs at various scales. Additionally, we employed a geographic detector to analyze the reactions and scale effects among these tradeoffs/synergies and social-ecological factors. Our findings revealed the following: (1) Significant spatial heterogeneity in ESs was observed in the basin. The WY decreased from west (2511.65 mm) to east (890.06 mm), with high WP values concentrated in the eastern part, and high SC values (8.30 × 105 t/hm2) found in densely forested and grassland areas surrounding water bodies. Forested and cultivated lands were key contributors to ESs in the basin. (2) Across the four investigated scales, tradeoffs or synergies between the same ESs becoming more pronounced as the scale increased. Notably, most ES relationships displayed their strongest synergies at the county scale, with certain spatial areas demonstrating change in interaction directions. (3) The explanatory power of single- or double-factor interactions increased with scale. ESs interactions were found to be closely linked to climatic factors, as well as topographic features (including slope gradient and elevation), with precipitation exhibiting relatively high explanatory power. The interaction of natural and social factors significantly outweighed the combined interaction of dual social factors. This indicated that socio-ecological factors, especially climate and topography, jointly influenced the intensity and direction of ES tradeoffs/synergies. Scale effects arose from the “peak cutting and valley filling” phenomenon during scale transitions. These insights hold significant value for guiding hierarchical management strategies for regional ESs and informing decisions regarding resource allocation.

Spatiotemporal Variation and Prediction of Carbon Storage in Terrestrial Ecosystems at Multiple Development Stages in Beijing City Based on the Plus and Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs Models

Terrestrial ecosystems play a critical role in the global carbon cycle, and their carbon sequestration capacity is vital for mitigating the impacts of climate change. Changes in land use and land cover (LULC) dynamics significantly alter this capacity. This study scrutinizes the LULC evolution within the Beijing metropolitan region from 1992 to 2022, evaluating its implications for ecosystem carbon storage. It also employs the Patch-Generating Land Use Simulation (PLUS) model to simulate LULC patterns under four scenarios for 2035: an Uncontrolled Scenario (UCS), a Natural Evolution Scenario (NES), a Strict Control Scenario (SCS), and a Reforestation and Wetland Expansion Scenario (RWES). The InVEST model is concurrently used to assess and forecast ecosystem carbon storage under each scenario. Key insights from the study are as follows: (1) from 1992 to 2022, Beijing’s LULC exhibited a phased developmental trajectory, marked by an expansion of urban and forested areas at the expense of agricultural land; (2) concurrently, the region’s ecosystem carbon storage displayed a fluctuating trend, peaking initially before declining, with higher storage in the northwest and lower in the central urban zones; (3) by 2035, ecosystem carbon storage is projected to decrease by 1.41 Megatons under the UCS, decrease by 0.097 Megatons under the NES, increase by 1.70 Megatons under the SCS, and increase by 11.97 Megatons under the RWES; and (4) the study underscores the efficacy of policies curtailing construction land expansion in Beijing, advocating for sustained urban growth constraints and intensified afforestation initiatives. This research reveals significant changes in urban land use types and the mechanisms propelling these shifts, offering a scientific basis for comprehending LULC transformations in Beijing and their ramifications for ecosystem carbon storage. It further provides policymakers with substantial insights for the development of strategic environmental and urban planning initiatives.

Dynamic land cover and ecosystem service changes in global coastal deltas under future climate scenarios

Coastal deltas, housing 4.5% of the global population, face profound shifts due to climate change and intensified human activities. This study utilizes the Patch-generating Land Use Simulation (PLUS) for detailed land cover dynamics and the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Trade-Offs (InVEST) models for ecosystem services assessment, focusing on 46 global coastal deltas under future scenarios (SSP126, SSP245, SSP585). Our findings reveal a 145% increase in urban areas from 1995 to 2015, with expected continuations in urban sprawl. Grassland and barren areas are projected to diminish by up to 15% and 5%, respectively, with urban areas potentially expanding by up to 39% across scenarios. Significant decreases in surface water yield under SSP245 and SSP585 could challenge water sustainability. Moreover, a universal decline in carbon storage necessitates enhanced carbon sequestration strategies. Soil retention is anticipated to decline, leading to increased erosion risks, while habitat quality varies, improving in 29 deltas under SSP126 but worsening in 33 under SSP245 and SSP585. These insights underscore the urgency of strategic, adaptive land use planning to bolster ecosystem services, directly supporting the United Nations' Decade of Ocean Science for Sustainable Development and advancing global sustainable delta management.

Assessing sediment dynamics and retention services in the vulnerable mountain ecosystem of the Indian Himalayas.

Sediment loss and export pose significant global environmental issues, profoundly affecting water quality, soil fertility, and ecosystem stability, particularly in vulnerable mountain ecosystems like the Indian Himalayas. The present study used remote sensing data and the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Trade-offs (InVEST) sediment delivery ratio (SDR) model to analyze spatial-temporal variations in soil loss (SL), sediment export (SE), and sediment retention (SR) capabilities in the South Shimla watershed, Himachal Pradesh, India, from 1993 to 2023. The findings showed significant changes in land use and land cover (LULC): evergreen forest and scrub land decreased sharply by 11.53% and 36.43%, respectively, while agricultural areas and built-up areas increased notably by 71.16% and 215.76%, respectively. Despite a decline of 19.18% in SL and 24.43% in SE, sediment loss and export varied across the study area, highlighting the heterogeneous nature of sediment dynamics. The overall retention capacity increased by 2.59%, with scrub forests playing a critical role in SR, while built-up areas showed the lowest retention. Northern and central sub-watersheds (SWs) experienced a significant decrease in retention capacity (from - 1.92 to - 11.6%), whereas those in the southern and eastern regions saw an increase in SR (from 3.69 to 28.24%). These results underscore the complex interactions between LULC changes, sediment dynamics, and retention services, highlighting the importance of preserving natural ecosystems and informing policy for landscape-based conservation and development planning in the vulnerable Himalayan region.

Evolution and Analysis of Water Yield under the Change of Land Use and Climate Change Based on the PLUS-InVEST Model: A Case Study of the Yellow River Basin in Henan Province

Understanding the interrelationships between land use, climate change, and regional water yield is critical for effective water resource management and ecosystem protection. However, comprehensive insights into how water yield evolves under different land use scenarios and climate change remain elusive. This study employs the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Trade-offs (InVEST) models, Patch-generating Land Use Simulation (PLUS) model, and Geodetector within a unified framework to evaluate the dynamics of land use, water yield, and their relationships with various factors (meteorological, social, economic, etc.). To forecast the land use/cover change (LUCC) pattern of the Yellow River Basin by 2030, three scenarios were considered: economic development priority (Scenario 1), ecological development priority (Scenario 2), and cropland development priority (Scenario 3). Climate change scenarios were constructed using CMIP6 data, representing low-stress (SSP119), medium-stress (SSP245), and high-stress (SSP585) conditions. The results show the following: (1) from 2000 to 2020, cropland was predominant in the Yellow River Basin, Henan Province, with significant land conversion to impervious land (construction land) and forest land; (2) water yield changes during this period were primarily influenced by meteorological factors, with land use changes having negligible impact; (3) by 2030, the water yield of Scenario 1 is highest among different land use scenarios, marginally surpassing Scenario 2 by 1.60 × 108 m3; (4) climate scenarios reveal significant disparities, with SSP126 yielding 54.95 × 108 m3 higher water yield than SSP245, driven predominantly by precipitation; (5) Geodetector analysis identifies precipitation as the most influential single factor, with significant interactions among meteorological and socio-economic factors. These findings offer valuable insights for policymakers and researchers in formulating land use and water resource management strategies.