Economic Recovery Process Research Articles

Implications of COVID-19 Lockdown on South African Business Sector

The COVID-19 pandemic in South Africa spelt untold adversity on many businesses in the country. This is attributable to the precautionary measures implemented by the South African government to contain the ferocious disease spread across various levels in the society. This article examined the many implications of the pandemic on the business sector in South Africa through the period just before June 2020. The article adopted a qualitative approach to critically examine the implications of the COVID-19 pandemic on the business sector in South Africa. It utilised Statistics South Africa’s reports and contemporary literature on the effects of COVID-19 on the business sector which was used as a source of reference. The statistical evidence is based on experimental data for May 2020, as derived from over a thousand registered businesses operating within the formal sector from various industrial groupings in South Africa. The period under review is remarkable because the business's effect of the pandemic became visibly alarming while the lockdown phases were reduced from Level 5 to Level 4 within the period. The private sector of the economy, known for its huge economic sustenance of most of the country’s labour force, was already at the firing line as all ‘nonessential’ businesses succumb to government’s strict regulations on socioeconomic activities during the phased lockdowns. The hitherto struggling economy, barely sustained by this sector, eventually caved in with over half of its gross domestic product, shrinking attributable to the unparalleled adverse effects that attended the dreaded pandemic. Although government is still battling with the nation’s economic recovery process, many businesses counted their losses from the first few months of the lockdown, as portrayed by plentiful evidence from the national statistical body.

Resilience of Bruneian economy amidst Covid-19 based on the United Nations Disaster Risk Reduction (UNDRR) framework

The outbreak of Covid-19 is the second most devastating event over a century. The pandemic, alongside deep health crises, has ushered the largest economic shocks, which require governments’ attention to ameliorate to avoid an economic downturn. The aim of this study is to measure the economic impacts of Covid-19 in Brunei by estimating the exposure, vulnerability, and resilience of the economy. This study deployed the United Nations Disaster Risk Reduction framework to examine the economic impact empirically. The data related to variables of gross domestic product, oil prices, international merchandise trade, tourism, unemployment, consumer price index, money supply, and national accounts were collected from September 2019 to July 2020 and analyzed through the fixed effects panel regression technique. The findings show that the news of the Covid-19 outbreak has exposed the weaknesses in energy sectors by having a significant negative impact. Additionally, analysis discloses that the energy and tourism sectors are vulnerable to the shocks of Covid-19. During the peak of the pandemic outbreak, unemployment in Brunei has also escalated. Additionally, the energy and tourism sectors are less resilient to pandemic shocks. The findings indicated that the consumer price index has significantly escalated during the economic recovery process. The findings elucidate that the overall GDP growth rate, international merchandise trade, and the financial sector continue exhibiting better performance amid Covid-19. The findings of this study contribute to developing policy implications for the emerging economies concerned with the economic recovery process during the pandemic.

De la autonomía a la cooperación. El cambio de targeting del Banco Central de Chile en la década de 1930

This article aims at analysing the development of the Central Bank of Chile during the Great Depression and the economic recovery process in the 1930s. It primarily examines the Bank’s relationship with the governments and the evolution of its policies. We have identified two main phenomena: The Bank’s autonomy reduction and a change in its monetary policy strategy from the exchange rate to inflation. Throughout these years, the Bank went through different relationship schemes with the government. Due to the intensity of the Great Depression and the internal institutional disorder, the government subordinated the Bank during the most dramatic years of the crisis (1931-1932), in what is known as a fiscal dominance scenario. Once the constitu-tional order returned, a cooperative relationship scheme established between the Bank and the Ministry of Finance under the Alessandri’s administration (1932-1938). Such cooperation was made possible mainly by the personalities who led both institutions, Guillermo Subercaseaux, President of the Central Bank, and Gustavo Ross Santa Maria, Minister of Finance. We propose and show that the understanding between both au-thorities allowed an economic recovery in a relatively short period taking into account the impact of the crisis. This collaboration also gave the Bank an additional room for manoeuvre to recommend and implement a new monetary policy strategy focused on inflation and not on the exchange rate as was the norm under the gold standard system. From a methodological point of view, we have consulted the Bank’s Annual Reports, Monthly Bulletins and Board of Directors’ Minutes - the latter scarcely used by historiography. These primary sources allowed us to analyse the policies adopted at a level of detail not previously covered by other research, especially concerning the views of the Board members. Similarly, the documentary corpus has allowed us to elaborate monthly time-series to reconstruct the most relevant banking and monetary variables in real values.

O Estado e o turismo no Brasil


 
 
 
 As pandemias marcam períodos de instabilidade, rupturas e mudanças complexas na sociedade. Hoje, o mundo enfrenta a pandemia da COVID-19, doença causada pelo novo coronavírus. Em todas as dimensões sociais, os impactos têm sido significativos, sobretudo, por causa do isolamento social, medida considerada eficiente para frear a disseminação da doença. No Brasil, o isolamento foi estabelecido pelo governo e culminou no fechamento temporário dos empreendimentos que prestam serviços não essenciais, no qual o turismo é contemplado. Logo, o objetivo deste artigo é discutir o papel do Estado na mitigação dos impactos da pandemia no setor turístico, analisando-se as políticas públicas adotadas e características como: esfera política, contexto, abrangência, conteúdo e critérios para efetivação. Trata-se de uma pesquisa exploratória e descritiva, cujo percurso metodológico consistiu na busca de palavras-chave em plataformas científicas e sites governamentais e de instituições setoriais de turismo, tanto no Brasil quanto no mundo. As informações obtidas foram organizadas, sistematizadas e analisadas empregando-se a técnica da Análise de Conteúdo. Os resultados mostram que as políticas públicas formuladas pelo governo são de caráter estrutural, com foco na manutenção de emprego e renda para empresários e trabalhadores de segmentos específicos da cadeia produtiva; conjuntural/emergencial, portanto, restritas ao período da pandemia; e regulatórias, normatizando protocolos de segurança e prevenção da COVID-19 durante o processo de retomada da economia. De modo geral, as políticas que mais beneficiam o setor não são oriundas de pastas importantes para a atividade, tal qual, o Ministério do Turismo, mas provenientes de outras esferas de atuação governamental.
 
 
 

Strengthening Wage Policies to Protect Incomes of the Informal and Migrant Workers in India

The Government of India is leveraging wage policy as a part of overall fiscal policy actions to protect the income of the informal and migrant workers affected by the COVID-19 pandemic and resultant lockdown measures. The statutory minimum wages through its redistributive mechanism and MGNREGS wages as an effective fiscal stimulus, could help alleviate the hardship faced by the informal workers and returnee migrants. However, for wage policies to act as an effective antidote, wage levels and their adequacy along with full implementation are of paramount importance. In this context, the paper argues that the level of both statutory minimum wages and MGNREGS wages are very low in India, and several implementation bottlenecks inhibit them from delivering results. It limits the very effectiveness of wage policies, unless prompt actions are taken to strengthen and revamp these policy tools. Under this backdrop, this paper provides an alternative framework for setting and revising minimum wages and MGNREGS wages at an adequate level. This is expected to significantly strengthen the current wage policies in addressing their stated objectives of reducing poverty and inequality while supporting a human-centred economic recovery process.

Economic Shocks of Covid-19: Can Big Data Analytics Help Connect the Dots

Since the beginning of the Covid-19 pandemic, big data analytics (BDA) remains a signatory medium in the battle against it. Governments and policymakers alike are yet to leverage on this scalable technology in an attempt to curb the economic effects of Covid-19. The primary objective of this study is to leverage on BDA to identify economic shocks, and propose a strategic solution for economic recovery in ASEAN member states (AMS). The findings of this study suggest that BDA techniques, frameworks, and architectures are effective tools in predicting and tracking economic shocks, as well as in designing and implementing an effective economic recovery plan. This study proposes a guideline to governments and policymakers scrambling for resources and considering different options to start an economic recovery process. Our findings draw a roadmap for complex AMS economies struggling to explore options for economic recovery in the response of Covid-19. This study has extended and confirmed the knowledge and perception about harnessing BDA as a tool as well as proposed a scientific approach to design economic policies. The findings outlined in this study contribute to the pipeline of BDA’s theoretical frameworks which is expected to strengthen its novelty in data science.

An analysis of the changes in the seasonal patterns of tourist behavior during a process of economic recovery

This paper studies how the improvement of the economic situation influences the behavior patterns of national and foreign tourists in relation to the seasonal trends that define their trips. After analyzing the patterns developed by tourists arriving to Spanish destinations, it has been found that in the period 2013–2018, the seasonality levels of destinations associated with secondary trips has decreased, while the number of said trips and their length has increased. At the same time, the number of trips made to coastal destinations, associated with the main holiday trip, does not grow as much. Additionally, these trips are shorter and an increase in the seasonality level can be seen in some cases.

Post-earthquake economic resilience and recovery efficiency in the border areas of the Tibetan Plateau: A case study of areas affected by the Wenchuan Ms 8.0 Earthquake in Sichuan, China in 2008

The border areas of the Tibetan Plateau and the neighboring mountainous areas have a high incidence of earthquakes with a magnitude greater than Ms 5.0, as well as having a dense distribution of geological disasters such as collapses, landslides, and debris flows. Revealing the post-disaster economic development and recovery process is very important for enhancing disaster prevention and response capacity in order to formulate control policies and recovery methods for post-disaster economic reconstruction based on economic resilience. Using long-term socioeconomic data and the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model, this paper calculated the economic resilience index of the areas most severely affected by the Wenchuan Earthquake of 2008 and adopted the improved variable returns to scale (VRS) date envelopment analysis (DEA) model and the Malmquist productivity index to analyze the efficiency and effect of annual post-disaster recovery. The results show that: (1) the economic resilience index of the areas most severely affected by the Wenchuan Earthquake was 0.877. The earthquake resulted in a short-term economic recession in the affected areas, but the economy returned to pre-quake levels within two years. In addition, the industrial economy was less resilient than agriculture and the service industry. (2) The comprehensive economic recovery efficiency of the disaster-stricken area in the year following the disaster was 0.603. The comprehensive efficiency, the pure technical efficiency, and the scale efficiency of the plain and hilly areas were significantly greater than those of the plateau and mountain areas. (3) The annual fluctuation in total factor productivity (TFP) following the disaster was considerable, and the economic recovery efficiency decreased significantly, resulting in a short-term economic recession. The TFP index returned to steady state following decreases of 33.7% and 15.2%, respectively, in the two years following the disaster. (4) The significant decrease in the post-disaster recovery efficiency was caused mainly by technological changes, and the renewal of the production system was the leading factor in determining the economic resilience following the disaster. With the decline in the scale of economic recovery following the earthquake, long-term economic recovery in the disaster-stricken areas depended mainly on pure technical efficiency, and the improvement in the latter was the driving force for maintaining the long-term growth of the post-disaster economy. Therefore, according to the local characteristics of natural environment and economic system, the disaster-stricken areas need to actively change and readjust their economic structures. At the same time, attention should be paid to updating the production system to enhance the level of technological progress and give full play to the scale effects of large-scale capital, new facilities, human resources, and other investment factors following the disaster so as to enhance the impact of economic resilience and recovery efficiency in response to the disaster.

The Economic Cost of COVID Lockdowns: An Out-of-Equilibrium Analysis.

This paper estimates the cost of the lockdown of some sectors of the world economy in the wake of COVID-19. We develop a multi sector disequilibrium model with buyer-seller relations between agents located in different countries. The production network model allows us to study not only the direct cost of the lockdown but also indirect costs which emerge from the reductions in the availability of intermediate inputs. Agents determine the quantity of output and the proportions in which to combine inputs using prices that emerge from local interactions. The model is calibrated to the world economy using input-output data on 56 industries in 44 countries including all major economies. Within our model, the lockdowns are implemented as partial reductions in the output of some sectors using data on sectoral decomposition of capacity reductions. We use computational experiments to replicate the temporal sequence of the lockdowns implemented in different countries. World output falls by 7% at the early stage of the crisis when only China is under lockdown and by 23% at the peak of the crisis when many countries are under a lockdown. These direct impacts are amplified as the shock propagates through the world economy because of the buyer-seller relations. Supply-chain spillovers are capable of amplifying the direct impact by more than two folds. Naturally, the substitutability between intermediate inputs is a major determinant of the amplification. We also study the process of economic recovery following the end of the lockdowns. Price flexibility and minor technological adaptations help in reducing the time it takes for the economy to recover. The world economy takes about one quarter to move towards the new equilibrium in the optimistic and unlikely scenario of the end of all lockdowns. Recovery time is likely to be significantly greater if partial lockdowns persist.

COVID-19 Pandemic, Government Response and Corporate Investment

We investigate the impact of the US government response to the COVID-19 pandemic, including stringent social measures and economics support packages, on corporate investment. The empirical results show that the government response have a positive effect on corporate investment. The government response to the pandemic is not only influencing long-term investments, but also exhibits a positively significant impact on the short-term investments of the US firms. The interesting finding is that the effect of the government response on corporate investment varies cross-sectionally and is more pronounced on firms with a lower level of political risk. Further, corporate investment of firms with higher investment irreversibility react less positively to government’s policies during COVID-19. Our analyses provide fresh insights into the firms’ reaction to the government’s response to the pandemic and suggest that both social measures and economic support are vital to restoring corporate investment as well as economic recovery process.

EU Cohesion Policy post-2020, European Green Deal and Territorial Agenda 2030. The future of the place-based approach in the new EU policy framework in the context of COVID-19

The European Union’s strategic priorities for the post-2020 period – focused on areas such as globalization, demography, migration, climate change, security and defense, employment and digitalization of the economy and society – pose relevant challenges as to the feasibility of its territorialization conditions and how to ensure operationalization at regional and local levels. As the EU prepares to implement the Cohesion Policy 2021-2027 and draw up the Territorial Agenda 2030, it also seeks to relaunch the EU policy framework in areas such as sustainable development, artificial intelligence and reindustrialization, examples of which are: European Green Deal, EU Circular Economy Action Plan and EU Digital Strategy. The current context of the COVID-19 pandemic has, however, forced a refocusing of the intervention priorities, at least in the short term, in the need to respond to the urgent economic, social and public health challenges caused by the pandemic. This article seeks to analyse, on the one hand, how the European policy cycle has adapted to respond to the pandemic, and on the other, the extent to which the place-based approach, one of the central operating rationales of the 2014-2020 financial perspective, may see its role strengthened and its performance extended as a consequence of the changes introduced in the current phase of the policy cycle due to the COVID-19 pandemic. The analysis carried out led to concluding that the current context of COVID-19 is implying the redesign of many of the Union’s public policy instruments and reordering some of the current strategic priorities. It is also changing the conditions of resilience and competitiveness of territories, whereby the place-based approach seems to be a public policy instrument especially suited to the process of economic and social recovery at the local and regional level.

The Economic Cost of Covid Lockdowns: An Out-of-Equilibrium Analysis

This paper estimates the cost of the lockdown of some sectors of the world economy in the wake of COVID-19. We develop a multi sector disequilibrium model with buyer- seller relations between agents located in different countries. The production network model allows us to study not only the direct cost of the lockdown but also indirect costs which emerge from the reductions in the availability of intermediate inputs. Agents determine the quantity of output and the proportions in which to combine inputs using prices that emerge from local interactions. The model is calibrated to the world economy using input-output data on 56 industries in 44 countries including all major economies. Within our model, the lockdowns are implemented as partial reductions in the output of some sectors using data on sectoral decomposition of capacity reductions. We use computational experiments to replicate the temporal sequence of the lockdowns implemented in different countries. World output falls by 7% at the early stage of the crisis when only China is under lockdown and by 23% at the peak of the crisis when many countries are under a lockdown. These direct impacts are amplified as the shock propagates through the world economy because of the buyer-seller relations. Supply- chain spillovers are capable of amplifying the direct impact by more than two folds. Naturally, the substitutability between intermediate inputs is a major determinant of the amplification. We also study the process of economic recovery following the end of the lockdowns. Price flexibility and minor technological adaptations help in reducing the time it takes for the economy to recover. The world economy takes about one quarter to move towards the new equilibrium in the optimistic and unlikely scenario of the end of all lockdowns. Recovery time is likely to be significantly greater if partial lockdowns persist.

Measuring the impact of insurance on urban earthquake recovery using nightlights

AbstractWe measure the longer-term effect of a major earthquake on the local economy, using night-time light intensity, and focus on the role of insurance payments for damaged residential property in the recovery process. The destructive Canterbury Earthquake Sequence (2010–2011) in New Zealand is our case study. Uniquely, for this event, >95% of residential housing units were covered by insurance and almost all incurred some damage. However, insurance payments were staggered over 5 years, enabling us to identify their local impact on recovery. We find that night-time luminosity can capture the process of recovery; and that insurance payments contributed significantly to the process of local economic recovery after the earthquake. Cash settlement of claims was no more effective than insurance-managed repairs in generating local recovery. Notably, delayed payments were less affective in assisting recovery; this suggests an important role for the regulator in making sure insurance payments are made promptly after disaster events.

PRODUCTIVITY FOR ECONOMIC RECOVERY AND SUSTAINABLE GROWTH

This paper presents the major productivity challenges facing Nigeria as a nation which contributed to delays in her economic recovery process. Some industrial visits were made to ascertain the effective levels of productivity, while administering structured questionnaire for data gathering. Comparative analysis was done between countries which were also categorised according to their developmental levels and strategies. Nigeria was included in the analysis, with a view to knowing where we belong and how best to fashion a way out of recession to achieve economic recovery. Results showed that corruption has eaten deep into the fabrics of our economic development. Manufacturing industries were found to be shutting down, due to unfavorable international competitiveness. One major way out of our recession was the development of human resources and creation of a stable macroeconomic environment. Also, Nigeria has to develop further its research and development activities through the allocation of more Research and Development expenditure as percentage of GNP particularly industrial research, in order to become competitive in the international market.

Seeing ghosts: crisis, ruin, and the creative industries

ABSTRACTThe article analyzes the process of economic recovery and spatial regeneration following the 2007–2008 financial crisis in the Republic of Ireland. Focusing in particular on the place of the creative and media industries within these top-down logics of planning, zoning, and property development, the article points to the strategic mobilization of ‘culture’ since the crisis for various forms of continuous financial and spatial exploitation. Using the popular visualization of the ‘ghost estate’ phenomenon as a starting point, differing logics and affects of ruin emerge within the fore- and en-closed futures of crisis within the built environment. Governing bodies like NAMA continue to manage the ‘recovery’ in a state of continuous exception, ensuring that the processes of foreign direct investment and urban regeneration continue unchecked as the country careens deeper into a housing shortage. The article proposes using the same materials put forth by the corporations and planning bodies of the ‘creative city’ to analyze a point of violence and contention where public goods and culture become mobilized strictly for private profit.

The GIIPS crisis in the context of the European Monetary Union: a political economy approach

<p>The GIIPS crisis (Greece, Italy, Ireland, Portugal, and Spain) has been deep and resistant. To date there have not been clear signs of consistent recovery from these economies, with the only exception being Ireland, that has experimented with a longer lasting economic recovery process in recent times. The aim of this paper is to discuss the GIIPS crisis in light of the European integration project. It is argued that this crisis has resulted from two simultaneous processes: on the one hand, it has resulted from the growing internal imbalances that occurred over the economic expansion period; on the other hand, it has resulted from the rigidities imposed by the institutional arrangement of the European Monetary Union. It has been concluded that the consistent economic recovery of these economies requires an aggregate demand stimulus for them, a condition that in turn requires the implementation of countercyclical economic policies.</p>

State actions in the post-conflict society

The return of the state to sociological discourse can be based on the study of the role of state measures in societies that overcome the consequences of violence. The purpose of the article – is to outline the problems and some ways of overcoming them facing the state in the post-conflict reconstruction of society and can be successfully addressed by state authorities with varying degrees of success.Given that the state in a post-conflict society, as a rule, has a low level of public confidence and limited resources to resolve the conflict, the practice of peacekeeping operations and other organizational arrangements for building peace is widespread.In addition to the organizational component, the assistance of the Western world is in promoting and sometimes imposing in the transitional societies the legal norms and political institutions of the "old world", which often complicated the peace process and did not take into account the local context of peace-building. In addition, the speed at which international donors wanted to obtain a result from international intervention could contradict the long-term process of psychosocial and economic recovery of victims of the conflict.Modern theories of "transitional justice" try to overcome the contradiction between the limited support of international actors on the one hand and the fragility of the state and the weakness of civil society on the other.The researchers are proposing a model where the state interacts with civil society on the path to peace in the long run and reconciliation.A decentralized transitional justice model emerged in Northern Ireland, where local conciliation initia- tives combined community efforts and government and non-governmental interventions. Particular emphasis on overcoming the effects of violence is on reparations. However, there is no unambiguous universal form of payment to victims of the conflict to meet all economic needs. Reparations can take different forms – from money to symbolic ones. In addition, the decision to pay reparations is implemented by the state on the basis of agreements at the level of institutes of transitional justice, first of all, the truth-establishing commissions.In order to overcome the consequences of violence and the post-conflict reconstruction of a society, the state must take into account the whole range of social problems – political, socio-psychological, and economic. The solution to political problems is through the provision of broad political rights and ensuring the inclusiveness of social groups in society. Socio-psychological problems are solved in particular through the transformation of the group identity of the oppositional conflicts of social groups in the context of the exchange of social experience. Economic issues of post-conflict reconstruction concern the development of an effective reparation system at the individual, group and national levels.

PERBANDINGAN KINERJA DAN KARAKTERISTIK KEUANGAN PERUSAHAAN PUBLIK DI PASAR MODAL INDONESIA DAN FILIPINA

Recovery process from crisis 1997 in all over ASEAN country had show a progress in 1999, where the economic condition is become batter than before. The report from World Economic Forum 2002 about economic growth in 80 countrys including ASEAN country have progress in their economic growth in 2001 and 2002 except Philippines and Indonesia. Report from World Investment report 2003 in their fact sheet, show that in all ASEAN countrys including Philippines have increase in transaction volume in their capital market, except Indonesia capital market. The fact that change in economic condition and recovery process from crisis doesn’t effect much to investor to invest their capital in philippines public company make some question, “is the public company in philippines have financial performance more batter than indonesia public company that also had decline in their economic condition?”. This research try ti find out the answer by compare financial performance (proxy by ratio) between public compani in philippines and indonesia. financial ratio use in this research is representation from liquidity ratio, solvency ratio, profitability ratio, and all that ratio compare by Independent Sample T-test in each observation time (2001 and 2002). The result from the test shows almost all ratio use (except ROA) indicate that financial performance in philippines public company is more batter then indonesia public company.

PERBANDINGAN KINERJA DAN KARAKTERISTIK KEUANGAN PERUSAHAAN PUBLIK DI PASAR MODAL INDONESIA DAN FILIPINA

Recovery process from crisis 1997 in all over ASEAN country had show a progress in 1999, where the economic condition is become batter than before. The report from World Economic Forum 2002 about economic growth in 80 countrys including ASEAN country have progress in their economic growth in 2001 and 2002 except Philippines and Indonesia. Report from World Investment report 2003 in their fact sheet, show that in all ASEAN countrys including Philippines have increase in transaction volume in their capital market, except Indonesia capital market.The fact that change in economic condition and recovery process from crisis doesn’t effect much to investor to invest their capital in philippines public company make some question, “is the public company in philippines have financial performance more batter than indonesia public company that also had decline in their economic condition?”. This research try ti find out the answer by compare financial performance (proxy by ratio) between public compani in philippines and indonesia. financial ratio use in this research is representation from liquidity ratio, solvency ratio, profitability ratio, and all that ratio compare by Independent Sample T-test in each observation time (2001 and 2002). The result from the test shows almost all ratio use (except ROA) indicate that financial performance in philippines public company is more batter then indonesia public company.

Os limites da recuperação econômica da Zona do Euro (2008-2016)

Since the outbreak of the global crisis in 2008, the countries of the periphery of the euro zone have faced great difficulties to enable the recovery of product, income and employment levels. The paper discusses this process and it argues that the exhaustion of conventional policies, along with the "genetic faults" of the single currency institutionality, contributes to impose sharp limits to the economic recovery process in many countries of the region.