Economic Volatility Research Articles

From pursuit of self-interest to pursuit of happiness: Complementary or contradictory readings of “wealth of nations” and “theory of moral sentiments”?

In the face of global economic volatility and widening socioeconomic disparities, there is a growing call to reevaluate prevailing economic models. Heterodox economists and management scholars increasingly emphasise the significance of happiness and subjective well-being, advocating for a well-being economy that prioritises human welfare over traditional growth-centric approaches. This article contributes to this discourse by critically examining Adam Smith's seminal works, particularly "The Wealth; of Nations" and "The Theory of Moral Sentiments." It argues for a nuanced; understanding of economic growth and progress, integrating subjective well-being and ethical considerations into contemporary management frameworks. Despite limited attention in management literature, Smith's ideas about the relationship between wealth and happiness offer valuable insights for modern management and the emerging field of well-being economics. This article explores how the relationship between wealth and happiness in Smith's works holds promise for contemporary debates.

Maximizing asset management and intellectual capital: the role of enterprise resource planning in ASEAN-5 construction firms

PurposeThe objective of this comparative quantitative study is to examine hypotheses regarding the impact of asset management and intellectual capital (IC) on the financial performance of the construction sector in the ASEAN-5 throughout 2019–2022 with enterprise resource planning (ERP) as a mediator variable.Design/methodology/approachA final sample of 65 construction industries listed on stock exchanges during 2019 and 2022 in ASEAN-5 (Indonesia, Philippines, Malaysia, Thailand and Singapore) was selected using the purposive sampling method. This research employs market-to-book value (MBV) as a measure of IC. The study also used path analysis, the Sobel test and analysis of variance test (ANOVA).FindingsThe findings demonstrate that asset management, intellectual capital and ERP have a significant and favorable impact on return on asset (ROA). Additionally, the asset management and IC of the ERP display weak and substantial outcomes. The implementation of ERP was also shown not to operate as a mediating factor. The ANOVA results on financial performance indicate significant differences for the year 2019. Furthermore, the use of various ERP software types demonstrates a comparable impact on enhancing financial performance.Originality/valueThis is the first study that utilizes ERP to mediate management asset and IC on financial performance. The ASEAN-5 construction sector is representative of developing nations' economic condition, offering the possibility to avoid the global economic collapse in 2023 and recover despite economic volatility.

Investment Opportunities in Uganda's Real Estate Market

Uganda's real estate market presents lucrative opportunities for investors driven by rapid urbanization, economic growth, and favorable government policies. Key urban centers like Kampala, Entebbe, and Mbarara are experiencing significant development, and increasing demand for residential, commercial, and industrial properties. This growth is bolstered by a steady rise in GDP, enhanced infrastructure, and increased foreign direct investment. However, investors must navigate challenges such as regulatory complexities, land ownership issues, economic volatility, and infrastructure deficiencies. Successful investment strategies include thorough market research, due diligence, strategic location choices, local partnerships, and sustainable practices. With careful planning, investors can capitalize on Uganda's dynamic real estate market and contribute to its ongoing development. Keywords: Urbanization, Economic Growth, Investment Opportunities, Real Estate Market, Infrastructure Development

Agricultural Policy Reforms and their Effects on Smallholder Farmers: A Comprehensive Review

Agricultural policy reforms are critical in influencing the economic, social, and environmental conditions of smallholder farmers, who represent a significant portion of the agricultural workforce in developing countries. These reforms, implemented through various strategies such as market liberalization, subsidy adjustments, and land tenure reforms, have far-reaching implications. This review article delves into the multifaceted effects of agricultural policy reforms on smallholder farmers, providing a comprehensive analysis of their historical context, economic impacts, social outcomes, and environmental consequences. By examining the evolution of these policies from the pre-structural adjustment era to the present, we aim to shed light on both the successes and challenges faced by smallholder farmers. The review also highlights case studies from different regions, illustrating the diverse experiences of smallholder farmers under varying policy frameworks. Ultimately, this article offers policy recommendations designed to enhance the resilience and productivity of smallholder farming communities, ensuring sustainable development and food security in the face of global challenges such as climate change and economic volatility.

Disney Business Logic Analysis

This paper analyses the development of the Disney Company since its founding in 1923, discusses the evolution of its main business, the risks, and opportunities it faces, and looks forward to the future development direction of Disney. As a giant in the global entertainment industry, Disney has successfully grown from a single animation studio to a global enterprise with diversified businesses including media networks, theme parks and resorts, consumer products business, and film and television entertainment services. The article provides a detailed analysis of how Disney has maintained its business growth and market competitiveness by adapting to digital transformation and globalization challenges while continuously expanding its IP library and strengthening its industry leadership through M&A strategies. It also explores Disney's risk management strategies in the face of global economic volatility, digital transformation challenges and intellectual property protection, as well as new opportunities arising from global expansion, technological innovation, and cross-border cooperation. Through a comprehensive analysis of Disney, this paper aims to provide a case study on how innovation and strategy can achieve sustainable business development in the era of globalization and digitalization.

Understanding Credit Rating Agencies in India: A Comparative Perspective

This paper provides a descriptive analysis of the credit rating processes employed by major credit rating agencies in India, including CRISIL, ICRA, and CARE. The Indian economy's volatility poses challenges for investors, making the role of credit rating agencies crucial in assessing the creditworthiness of financial instruments. These agencies employ unique methodologies, rating instruments from AAA to D, based on various parameters, reflecting their risk assessments. While these ratings aid investors in making informed investment decisions, they also raise awareness about the associated risks, promoting cautious investment behaviour. The study highlights the similarities and differences in the methodologies used by these agencies, offering insights into their ratings' reliability and effectiveness. Key words: Credit Rating Agencies, Indian Economy, Investment Decision, Creditworthiness, Risk Assessment.

Jobless recoveries and time variation in labor markets

We study the nature of changes in the relationship between the labor market and output by using a broader set of labor market variables and a flexible time-varying-parameter vector autoregression model with stochastic volatility (TVP-SV). Overall, the TVP-SV model fits the labor market data well and has good predictive performance. We find heterogeneity both in the timing and the type of changes in the relationship between labor market variables and output. We find evidence that the relationship between output and employment growth, hours, vacancies, and wages has changed over time, with employment, wages, and vacancies being less responsive over time. In contrast, the responses of hours and part-time employment to output have become stronger over time, indicating a shift towards utilization of the intensive margin and towards utilizing more flexible labor inputs.

Navigating APEC Countries: TVP-VAR Insights into Developed and Emerging Stock Markets

The interdependence of stock markets provides important discernment into the behavior of the larger international financial markets. This study investigates magnitude and directional volatility spillover patterns among developed and emerging countries within the APEC bloc, utilizing the TVP-VAR model. The findings indicate that Russia (15.06%), Vietnam11.64%), and Thailand (11.57%) are identified as major transmitters, and Malaysia (-28.95%), Philippines (-9.28%), China (-9.53%) are major receptor of the volatility spillovers in APEC emerging countries. In APEC-developed countries, the United States (56.85%) and Canada (42.6%) are major transmitters, and Japan (-34.02%) and Australia (-53.54%) are identified as a major receptor of the spillover. Moreover, COVID-19 was the most significant crisis, with the highest volatility spillover identified in the APEC bloc's developed and emerging economies. The discoveries have substantial ramifications, offering valuable insights into optimal investment strategies by identifying patterns, magnitudes, and directions of economic volatility shocks.

The political economy of connectivity in the Somali Horn of Africa

Abstract This article focuses on the political economy of connectivity in the Somali Horn of Africa (HoA). On the one hand, it charts the emergence of firms in Somalia and Somaliland at the intersection of telecommunication and finance, eventually controlling logistics through digital platforms that enable the circulation of people, goods and value across the region. On the other, it examines the historical and political elements that have shaped a peculiar instance of digital capitalism against a backdrop of protracted insecurity and state fragility. It uses the specific case-study of digital platforms in the Somali HoA to provide insights into the multiple shapes that digital capitalism can take. To advance the authors' analysis, the article links the notions of digital infrastructural power and ‘extrastatecraft’. Empirically, it delves into the case of digital platforms in the Somali HoA to illustrate how the unique digital landscape of the region has evolved over fifty years of political instability and economic volatility. Theoretically, the article navigates the implications of the state's heavy reliance on privately owned and managed platforms amid the backdrop of variegated digital capitalism narratives, which have predominantly centred on the global North.

A simulation-based optimization model for balancing economic profitability and working capital efficiency using system dynamics and genetic algorithms

Economic uncertainty has been increasing, as evidenced by recent fluctuations in global markets and unpredictable economic indicators such as volatile demand, stock market fluctuations, and unpredictable interest rates. Economic profitability and working capital efficiency are pivotal indicators of a business’s financial health, both of which are adversely impacted by economic uncertainty. However, these metrics may diverge as distinct objectives drive them. There exists a gap in the literature regarding effective strategies for managing the trade-off between these metrics under economic uncertainty. This study addresses this gap by introducing a simulation-based optimization model that integrates system dynamics simulation and genetic algorithms. The proposed model aims to balance economic profitability and working capital efficiency within inventory management under partial trade credit. A recent real case study demonstrates the model’s applicability and reveals its superiority over conventional system dynamics simulation modeling. With its capacity to inform strategic and tactical decision-making, this model emerges as a valuable tool for supply chain and financial managers seeking to ensure financial stability amidst economic volatility.

THE INTERPLAY BETWEEN CREDIT RISK AND FINANCIAL PERFORMANCE OF LICENSED SPECIALIZED BANKS: EVIDENCE FROM A DEVELOPING COUNTRY

This paper investigates the influence of credit risk on the financial performance of licensed specialized banks in Sri Lanka from 2006 to 2020, a period marked by economic volatility that added layers of complexity and risk, especially for banks engaged in development lending. Using secondary data from annual reports, the study employs regression analysis to examine this relationship, with the non-performing loan (NPL) ratio as the dependent variable representing credit risk and return on equity (ROE) and return on assets (ROA) as independent variables indicating financial performance. The findings reveal that credit risk significantly impacts the financial performance of these banks, demonstrating a notable negative relationship between ROE and the NPL ratio, as credit risk increases, profitability decreases. These insights are crucial for policymakers to set realistic performance targets and for bank management to allocate capital efficiently and develop strategies to mitigate risk, thereby enhancing financial stability and performance amidst economic uncertainties.

The Impact of Tourism on the Labor Market of Local Service Industries in Barcelona

This study examines the impact of tourism on the labor market of local service industries in Barcelona, focusing on employment trends, job quality, and economic implications. Utilizing quantitative data from the Spanish National Institute of Statistics and the Barcelona Tourism Board, the research reveals that tourism has significantly driven job creation in sectors such as hospitality, retail, and transportation, with employment growth rates outpacing the city’s overall average. However, the predominance of part-time and temporary positions, coupled with lower wage levels, raises concerns about job stability and quality. Seasonal employment variations and spatial distribution analysis highlight the dependence of certain districts on tourism, leading to economic volatility and socio-economic challenges such as rising housing prices and cost of living. The study underscores the need for balanced policy approaches that enhance job security, improve labor conditions, and address housing affordability to ensure sustainable and inclusive economic growth. Recommendations include promoting year-round tourism, diversifying tourism offerings, and implementing regulatory measures to protect local residents’ quality of life.

FISCAL POLICY FRAMEWORK IN A DECARBONIZED FUTURE FOR RESOURCE-RICH COUNTRIES

In a world transitioning towards decarbonization, resource-rich countries (RRCs) face unique challenges in shaping their fiscal policy frameworks, necessitating significant adjustments. This paper analyzes the effects of decarbonization on the fiscal policies of RRCs, focusing on the intersection of fiscal sustainability and sustainable development goals. The key findings reveal that effective fiscal discipline is crucial for maintaining fiscal sustainability amid fluctuating resource revenues. Implementing medium-term budget frameworks helps RRCs manage economic volatility and plan for long-term fiscal health. The adoption of green fiscal policies can support RRCs in navigating the challenges of decarbonization, contributing to both fiscal sustainability and sustainable development goals. Additionally, decarbonization affects various economic aspects, including budget revenues, expenditures, and the overall fiscal sustainability landscape, necessitating tailored fiscal policies. This comprehensive analysis provides valuable insights into designing and implementing fiscal policies suited to the needs of resource-rich countries during the global energy transition. The study highlights how green fiscal policies can assist RRCs in managing decarbonization challenges while achieving sustainable development goals.

ANALYSIS OF THE POSSIBILITY OF BANKRUPTCY IN MEDIUM-SIZED AGRIBUSINESS COMPANIES IN AP VOJVODINA

In the context of a volatile economy marked by diverse global crises, it becomes imperative to proactively assess the potential insolvency among economic entities. This study focuses on medium-sized companies involved in agricultural and food production within the AP Vojvodina, spanning the time frame from 2018 to 2022. The primary objective is to assess the likelihood of bankruptcy within the observed companies, applying Altman’s modified Z score (Z’), Kralicek Quick test and the Springate model. The data utilized for this research are sourced from the financial reports of the observed companies. Based on the performed analysis, it can be concluded that the modified Altman’s Z’ score and the Springate model in most cases gave identical results on the occurrence of bankruptcy. Using the Kralicek Quick test, the solvency ratings are quite divergent. In the observed period, the possibility of bankruptcy was higher for agricultural companies compared to ones from the food industry.

Emergency medical services impact evaluation approaches in low and middle-income countries

There is a strong need to critically consider the neocolonial context when discussing the impact evaluation of Eemergency Medical Services (EMS) systems in many low to middle-income countries. Many of these countries have faced exploitation and settler colonialism, and in today’s world the aftermath of these political–economic unequal power dynamics persists through neocolonialism. “Solutions” to prehospital care and related donor-driven development sector aid programs are typically orchestrated by high-income countries in the Global North, many of whom directly benefited from centuries of colonizing the Global South. This perpetuates the financial and technocratic dependency of many low to middle-income countries.Traditional Global North–led impact assessment typically revolves around mortality outcomes. This is problematic because singularly tracking mortality can obscure the influence of important factors at play beyond the emergency response incident itself, such as morbidity and socioeconomic privilege. This is why process indicators such as response times and economic impacts on first responders and communities are crucial. Hence, instead of trying to develop a one-size-fits-all impact assessment criteria for all the diverse prehospital care system contexts across the world, it is important to focus on enabling bottom-up, community-led, and participatory approaches to finding context-tailored solutions. A key element of this should be the co-creation of the measures of success themselves with the community stakeholders.Such a decolonial holistic approach may then help put the spotlight on often neglected important measures, such as the inclusion of underprivileged minorities in emergency response and the level of protection against catastrophic health care expenditure built into EMS systems. In doing so, it can encourage a monitoring and evaluation shift from short-term mortality to long-term wellbeing, taking into account cultural contexts about what “wellbeing” entails. Furthermore, it is important to challenge the taken-for-granted notion that in low to middle-income countries, EMS systems are solely for trauma and medical emergencies. It is also important to consider (with the dialogue led by the local stakeholders) what sustainability would look like, and how resources accordingly should be allocated, in those regions in low to middle-income countries where there is political and economic volatility as a consequence of continuing neocolonial hegemony.

How e-commerce can boost China’s high-quality agricultural exports

IntroductionExport quality improvement is a crucial path for a country or region to climb up the advanced division of labor in the global value chain. For developing countries that have long been at the lower end of the global value chain division of labor, the dominance of agricultural trade is often controlled by international retailers, leading to higher costs of agricultural trade and hindering the upgrading of the quality of agricultural exports. As a traditional agricultural exporting country, China still needs a competitive advantage despite the large scale of its agricultural exports. Currently, e-commerce can provide buyers and sellers with comprehensive transaction information and technical support, allowing them to realize rational allocation of resources and export upgrading. Therefore, studying how e-commerce can promote the quality upgrade of agricultural exports is crucial for China to build a trade power.MethodsThis paper clarifies the mechanism of e-commerce’s theoretical impact on the quality of agricultural exports and then empirically tests it using a high-dimensional fixed-effects model with Chinese customs data from 2000 to 2020 as a sample.ResultsThe results show that e-commerce significantly promotes the quality of agricultural exports in all regions of China, and this conclusion still holds after various robustness tests; the heterogeneity test shows that e-commerce fosters the quality of agricultural exports in eastern China, densely populated regions, and economically underdeveloped regions, especially in the case of heterogeneous products; the mechanism analysis confirms that e-commerce promotes the quality of agricultural exports mainly through the optimization of the agricultural industry chain and supply chain, and the enhancement of the level of servicing. Mechanism analysis confirms that e-commerce improves agricultural export quality mainly through optimizing the agricultural industry chain and supply chain, improving the level of servitization, and docking the demand information of the consumer market, etc. Expanded analysis shows that constructing cross-border e-commerce platforms also significantly improves the quality of micro enterprises’ agricultural exports. This paper enriches the research on e-commerce and agricultural trade.DiscussionThis paper provides an essential reference for constructing a robust agricultural trade country and developing high-quality agriculture. Despite encompassing data up to 2020, in the context of today’s global economic volatility directly affecting agricultural trade, future investigations will broaden the scope to delve deeper into how e-commerce can help countries cope with global economic uncertainty.

Sources, management, and challenges of funding Nigeria’s Universities in a volatile economy and the implications for sustainable development

No abstract

An Investigation into the Level of Financial Literacy among Women in Rural and Urban Areas of Erode District

The present study focuses the financial literacy of rural and urban areas women in Erode district. In the volatile economy, financial literacy is very important role in every individuals life especially women. The low level of financial literacy cannot be able to know about the financial services provided by bank. This study reveals that with sample size of 40, rural and urban area women are how they financially strong and discriminated rural and urban women who mostly aware in traditional financial products. In this survey used primary and secondary data. The statistical tools used like percentage analysis, descriptive analysis and ANOVA.

Monetary Policy Strategies to Foster Price Stability and a Strong Labor Market

I assess monetary policy strategies to foster price stability and labor market strength. The assessment incorporates a range of challenges, including uncertainty regarding the equilibrium real interest rate, mismeasurement of economic potential, and balancing the costs and benefits associated with employment shortfalls and labor market strength. I find that the ELB remains a significant constraint, hindering achievement of the inflation objective and worsening employment shortfalls. Symmetric policy reaction functions mitigate the most adverse effects of employment shortfalls by contributing to economic stability. Make-up strategies address ELB risks. These strategies call for policy to accommodate some period of inflation above its long-run objective following an ELB episode. I also consider an asymmetric shortfalls approach to policy. This approach provides accommodation in response to weak activity while foregoing tightening in response to strong activity. While the approach can, in principle, address ELB risks by raising inflation, it performs poorly. The shortfalls approach exacerbates economic volatility, worsens employment shortfalls, and creates excess inflationary pressures. Mismeasurement is not sufficient to limit the importance of strong responses to measured slack. Overall, monetary policy can promote price stability and labor market strength by focusing on economic stability, with a strategy targeted to address ELB risks.

Exploring the moderating effect of regulatory quality on the relationship between financial development and economic growth/economic volatility for developed and developing countries

This study examines the moderating effect of regulatory quality on the relationship between financial development and economic growth/economic volatility. We employ the Panel Corrected Standard Error estimation method, supplemented by a robustness check using the Generalized Method of Moments. Our findings offer interesting insights into the relationship between financial development and outcomes for the economy. In developed countries, regulatory quality positively moderates the relationship between banking-based financial development and economic growth. Hence, policymakers should prioritize the maintenance of a high-quality institutional and regulatory environment conducive to both banking-based and market-based growth. Continual efforts to enhance regulatory quality and adopt robust approaches are imperative. Conversely, this study does not detect a significant moderating effect of regulatory quality on the relationship between financial development and economic growth in developing countries. Policymakers in these contexts must accelerate efforts to bolster institutional and regulatory frameworks, emphasizing the enhancement of regulatory quality. Care should be taken to avoid overly stringent regulations, particularly at lower levels of financialization, to prevent potential counter-productivity. Instead, a gradual approach to improving regulatory quality is advisable. Furthermore, policymakers should recognize that regulatory quality mitigates the contribution of banking-based financial development to economic volatility, a phenomenon observed in both developed and developing countries.