Economic Statistics Research Articles

Case Study in National Economic Statistics Work in China

With the establishment of China's socialist market economy system, the fundamental role of national economic statistics in the national economy has gradually become more prominent, as the national economy involves the interests of various aspects of the country and requires specific descriptions of China's economic development through national economic statistics. This article first analyzes the characteristics and value of national economic statistics work, then examines the relationship between national economic statistics and the operation of the national economy, and finally points out how national economic statistics affect the operation of the national economy.

Retracted: Cloud‐Based Android Intelligent Voice and Enterprise Economic Statistics System Design

Retracted: Cloud‐Based Android Intelligent Voice and Enterprise Economic Statistics System Design

СТРАТЕГИИ ТРАНСФОРМАЦИИ БИЗНЕС-МОДЕЛЕЙ ПРОИЗВОДИТЕЛЕЙ ДОРОЖНО-СТРОИТЕЛЬНОЙ ТЕХНИКИ В УСЛОВИЯХ КОНКУРЕНЦИИ С ИНОСТРАННЫМИ КОМПАНИЯМИ

The article examines the competition between Russian and foreign manufacturers of road construction equipment in Russia. The subject of the research is strategies for the transformation of business models of manufacturing enterprises in developing countries and emerging markets under the influence of multinational corporations. The methodological basis of the research includes theoretical provisions of strategic management, concepts of business models and economics of industry markets. The paper defines business model transformation strategies based on the application of the co-evolutionary concept of innovation in the business models of companies in developing countries by O. Michalache and H. Volberd, 166methods of economic statistics and one-factor analysis of variance. The authors put forward and test the hypothesis that international cooperation with foreign companies increases the competitiveness of Russian manufacturers of road construction equipment. Calculationsin the SPSS program show that companies outside international cooperation have low market share indicators. Average competitive positions in the road construction equipment market are typical for companies importing parts and components from leading foreign manufacturers. Companies that have established joint ventures with foreign partners or acquired licenses for the production of road construction equipment from foreign manufacturers have achieved the best indicators of competitiveness in the Russian market. The most successful Russian companieshave chosen a strategy for adapting the business models of foreign enterprises. This research is of practical importance for the formation of a business model and competitive strategy of Russian companies in conditions of sanctions isolation from the technologies of developed countries and the growth of imports from developing countries.

Resilience and Reconstruction: Unraveling the Economic Trajectory of Iraq Post-2003

This study seeks to explain Iraq's economic trajectory after 2003, focusing on its potential to recover and reconstruct. The challenge is understanding how Iraq's political and historical conditions after the 2003 US invasion have affected its economy. The report examines post-conflict reconstruction in Iraq and its economy. This study examined economic figures, government legislation, and scholarly works. We analyse economic statistics and current trends in Iraq to assess its economic recovery. The analysis found that Iraq's economy has been erratic since 2003. Oil production, infrastructure construction, and foreign investment have survived the conflict. Rehabilitation efforts were crucial to economic recovery. The findings prompted several recommendations. To maintain effective economic management, ongoing investment in physical infrastructure, diversification away from oil, promoting a business-friendly climate, and fortifying existing institutions are needed. This analysis illuminates Iraq's economic trajectory after 2003, showcasing its resilience and recovery efforts. Policymakers and anyone interested in Iraq's economic development and stability may benefit from the results and recommendations.

INTEGRATION OF THE UKRAINIAN ECONOMY INTO THE EURO-ATLANTIC COMMUNITY IN THE CONTEXT OF INTERNATIONALIZATION AND GLOBALIZATION PROCESSES: CONCEPT AND ASSESSMENT

The purpose of the article is to present the author's point of view on the conceptual apparatus that clarifies the definition of such economic categories as "internationalization", "economic integration", "inclusiveness", "globalization", etc. As a result, the essence of the processes of internationalization and integration of Ukraine into the democratized economic system of Euro-Atlantic countries is revealed. The object of the study is to analyze the complex processes of internationalization, globalization and integration of the Ukrainian economy into the competitive environment of Euro-Atlantic countries. The research methodology is based on general scientific and fundamental provisions of economic theory, international economics and statistics. The conceptual basis of the article is the world economic theories on the assessment of globalization processes in the development of the world economy. Processing and analysis of statistical data, modeling and forecasting of the identified trends were carried out using modern software. The most important theoretical and practical results that characterize the scientific novelty of the study and the personal contribution of the author are: identification of significant relationships and interdependencies between the processes of internationalization and international integration; meaningful analysis of the prerequisites for the emergence and deepening of the process of economic integration and the intensity of the influence of centripetal forces; the concept of inclusive growth, which is considered from the perspective of coherence of development goals of countries that form a globally integrated Euro-Atlantic community. Based on the main results of the study, the authors make several important conclusions and recommendations, including the following. Taxonomy of categories "internationalization", "economic integration", "inclusiveness", "globalization". Based on the analysis of the characteristic features of unions (international economic and full integration), it is proved that the latter require research, analysis and, as a result, the introduction of a common monetary, fiscal, credit policy, etc. One of the essential characteristics of the ability of any country to "fit" into the international system is the compliance of the development goals of such a country with the economic behavior of its government with international standards.

РОЛЬ ТА ЗАВДАННЯ МАРКЕТИНГУ ІННОВАЦІЙ У ПРОМИСЛОВОСТІ УКРАЇНИ

To overcome the global and national challenges, that arose beyond Ukraine in view of the modern technologies level increase in the world as well as due to the activation of European integration processes in the country, the accelerated economic breakthrough is required and the innovation has a high profile in securing thereof. Creation of breakthrough innovations with further effective use and dissemination is rather relevant for the industry since the latter is a key element of the strategy for economic development of Ukraine. Therefore the domestic industrial enterprises need research of new ways for increasing the innovative activity. One of such ways is expansion of applying the new marketing principles and technologies which are laid in the basis of marketing of innovations concept. The purpose and task of the research is to specify the essence and the content of terms “innovation” and “marketing of innovations”, research and analyze the level of innovative activity of industrial enterprises of Ukraine as well as highlihting the problems for which the marketing of innovations may be a solution. To reach the goals determined in the article the system-structural analysis (for studying and generalization of approaches to determining the innovations and marketing of innovations), economic and mathematic statistics (for processing and analysing of output data, revealing the tendencies and consistent patterns of the effectiveness of studied indexes) are used. The modern approaches to innovations marketing interpretation are analysed in the article. It is established that the industry is the generator of scientific and technological progress and innovations. The condition of industrial enterprises innovative activity is researched. The important role of applying the innovations marketing in industry of Ukraine is proved. Analysis and systematization of approaches for determining the definition “marketing of innovations” conducted in the article provided the possibility to deepen the understanding of the essence and content thereof as well as to separate the complex of tasks resolving which may guarantee the way of innovative development for the industrial enterprises of Ukraine and correspondingly the increase of competitiveness, strengthening of market positions and securing the future.

An Intelligent Hybrid Model Using Artificial Neural Networks and Particle Swarm Optimization Technique For Financial Crisis Prediction

Financial crisis prediction is a critical issue in the economic phenomenon. Correct predictions can provide the knowledge for stakeholders to make policies to preserve and increase economic stability. Several approaches for predicting the financial crisis have been developed. However, the classification model's performance and prediction accuracy, as well as legal data, are insufficient for usage in real applications. So that, an efficient prediction model is required for higher performance results. This paper adopts a novel two-hybrid intelligent prediction model using an Artificial Neural Network (ANN) for prediction and Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) for optimization. At first, a PSO technique produces the hyperparameter value for ANN to fit the best architecture. They are weights and thresholds. Then, they are used to predict the performance of the given dataset. In the end, ANN-PSO generates predictions value of crisis conditions. The proposed ANN-PSO model is implemented on time series data of economic conditions in Indonesia. Dataset was obtained from International Monetary Fund and the Indonesian Economic and Financial Statistics. Independent variable data using 13 potential indicators, namely imports, exports, trade exchange rates, foreign exchange reserves, the composite stock price index, real exchange rates, real deposit rates, bank deposits, loan and deposit interest rates, the difference between the real BI rate and the real FED rate, the M1, M2 multiplier, and the ratio of M2 to foreign exchange reserves. Meanwhile, the dependent variable uses the perfect signal value based on the Financial Pressure Index. A detailed statistical analysis of the dataset is also given by threshold value to convey crisis conditions. Experimental analysis shows that the proposed model is reliable based on the different evaluation criteria. The case studies show that the result for predictive data is basically consistent with the actual situation, which has greatly helped the prediction of a financial crisis.

Comparative analysis of bank lending to non-financial corporations under the conditions of inflation targeting

The influence of the interest policy of the National Bank of Ukraine on the dynamics of lending to non-financial corporations during the period of using the monetary regime of fixed exchange rate and inflation targeting is considered. It has been proven, that the use of the symmetric corridor of the interest policy of the National Bank of Ukraine has a negative effect on the volume of lending to non-financial corporations, since high rates on deposit certificates of the National Bank of Ukraine create a risk-free and highly profitable instrument for the placement of bank assets, which discourages lending to the real sector of the economy. The absence of a connection between the interest rate policy and the dynamics of the consumer price index and the money supply during the period of inflation targeting is substantiated, which made it possible to prove the low level of effectiveness of the chosen monetary regime.
 The aim of the article is to study the problems of bank lending to non-financial corporations of Ukraine in the conditions of inflation targeting and to develop proposals for its stimulation, taking into account foreign experience.
 Methods. The methodological basis of the work is the dialectical method of cognition, the position of the theory of monetary policy and credit. The work uses methods of economic and mathematical statistics and methods of correlation analysis to analyze the features of lending to non-financial corporations and the impact of inflation targeting on the dynamics of bank lending; generalization methods for formulating research conclusions.
 Results. The monetary regime of inflation targeting is quite often recommended by the International Monetary Fund for implementation in countries with emerging markets as a basic set of central bank tools for regulating inflation and ensuring price stability. However, in conditions of import dependence of the national economies of countries with emerging markets, in addition to changes in the money supply and credit activity of banks, the dynamics of export-import operations and the volume of official reserve assets, which determine the level of the exchange rate, have a decisive influence on the dynamics of the consumer price index, and it, in turn, determines the level of prices for imported goods and services. Neglecting the non-monetary factors of supply inflation during the implementation of the interest policy leads to the limitation of bank lending to non-financial corporations, which in turn reduces the ability of enterprises to increase capital investments at the expense of bank loans, as well as to develop domestic production with high added value and to implement the policy of import substitution. Therefore, for this purpose, it is necessary to use the asymmetric corridor of the central bank's interest policy and stimulate targeted bank lending to non-financial corporations.

Analysis of Conventional and Islamic Monetary Policy Transmission on Inflation and Economic Growth

This empirical study aims to analyze the transmission of conventional and sharia monetary policies to inflation (CPI) and economic growth (GDP) using the instruments of SBI, PUAB, SBIS, and PUAS for the period 2002 to 2020. The data in this study are secondary data obtained from the Indonesian National Agency for Finance. Center for Statistics (BPS) and Indonesian Economic and Financial Statistics (SEKI) BI. The analytical tool used is the VAR/VECM approach. Based on the analysis that has been carried out, several findings were obtained: first, in the short term, CPI is influenced by SBI, PUAB, and SBIS, while GDP is influenced by SBI, PUAB, SBIS, and PUAS. Second, in the long term, CPI is significantly influenced by SBI, PUAB, SBIS, and PUAS, while GDP is only influenced by SBI and PUAS variables. Third, in the IRF analysis, the variables of SBI, PUAB, and SBIS were responded negatively by the CPI, while PUAS was responded to positively by the CPI. The variables PUAB, SBIS, and PUAS responded positively by GDP, while GDP responded negatively to SBI. Fourth, from the results of the FEVD analysis, the conventional channel variable has a greater contribution to influencing inflation (CPI) than the sharia channel variable. Meanwhile, the sharia channel variable has a greater contribution to economic growth (GDP) compared to the conventional channel variable.

Institutional constraints and opportunities for public-private partnership development in telemedicine

Subject. The article considers problems of attracting investments into telemedicine in Russia. Objectives. The purpose is to analyze prospects for remote delivery of health care services, assess the legal framework for public-private partnership development in health care. Methods. The study employs methods of institutional analysis and economic statistics. Results. One of the most attractive options for the development of digital health services and telemedicine in Russia in conditions of its economic blockade and limited access to advanced global technologies is the use of public-private partnership mechanisms. There are many major players in the Russian telemedicine market, the software is being improved. Conclusions. To develop telemedicine in Russia, attract investment, including through the mechanisms of PPP, it is required to improve the methodological and regulatory framework in this area, accelerate processes of import substitution of high-tech equipment, implement mechanisms to ensure project payback, consistently solve problems of institutional and market constraints.

A JACKKNIFE LAGRANGE MULTIPLIER TEST WITH MANY WEAK INSTRUMENTS

This paper proposes a jackknife Lagrange multiplier (JLM) test for instrumental variable regression models, which is robust to (i) many instruments, where the number of instruments may increase proportionally with the sample size, (ii) arbitrarily weak instruments, and (iii) heteroskedastic errors. In contrast to Crudu, Mellace, and Sándor (2021, Econometric Theory 37, 281–310) and Mikusheva and Sun (2021, Review of Economic Studies 89, 2663–2686), who proposed jackknife Anderson–Rubin tests that are also robust to (i)–(iii), we modify a score statistic by jackknifing and construct its heteroskedasticity robust variance estimator. Compared to the Lagrange multiplier tests by Kleibergen (2002, Econometrica 70, 1781–1803) and Moreira (2001, Tests with Correct Size when Instruments Can Be Arbitrarily Weak, Working paper) and their modification for many instruments by Hansen, Hausman, and Newey (2008, Journal of Business & Economic Statistics 26, 398–422), our JLM test is robust to heteroskedastic errors and may circumvent a possible decrease in the power function. Simulation results illustrate the desirable size and power properties of the proposed method.

Research on Sustainability of Financing Mode and Demand of PPP Project—Based on Chinese PPP and Local Financing Platform Alternative Perspective

This paper studies the sustainability of the financing model in China’s urbanization and the demand of local governments for PPP projects. Based on the integrated panel data of PPP, local investment and financing platforms, urban investment bonds, and local economic statistics, the fixed effect model and dynamic panel regression model are used to study whether local financing platforms promote economic growth. The results show that in general, the development model of financing platform is not conducive to sustainable economic development. Before the 2008 economic crisis, local governments were pushing up house prices through financing platforms which boosted economic growth, but after the 2008 economic crisis, this mechanism did not work. Therefore, the sample selection model is used to predict the demand of local PPP projects and verify the substitution relationship between local financing platforms and PPP. The study found that financing platforms hinder local government demand for PPP projects and the attraction to private investment. After adjusting the relevant variables to zero, the demand for PPP projects in a representative city is 3.46.

Peran Penting Statistika dalam Pendidikan dan Perekonomian Islam Modern

This research is a literature study with a descriptive qualitative approach to the type of literature that seeks to explain the important role of statistics in modern Islamic education and economics. In this literature study, researchers used various written sources such as books, articles, journals and other supporting documents relevant to the study. This study focuses on the discourse of statistical science and its role in the field of Islamic education and economics in the modern era. The results of the study show that statistics have been widely used by the public on various field such as politics, education, government, economics, and business. In education, statistics help students and learners or education practitioners in understanding data, measurement instruments, data analysis techniques, and drawing conclusions, both as evaluations and continuing education research. While in business, statistics can be applied to business calculations in the form of trend index numbers, dividend calculations, probability of profit in investments and stocks. Specifically, statistics have an important role in the banking sector, stock sector, capital market sector, insurance sector, multifinance and micro sector. Statistics present a lot of detailed and systematic information or data. Not only that, statistical science is highly recommended in Islamic economic and educational activities, and Allah likes people who carry out economic andeducational activities carried out with itqan, namely focused, clear, accurate, and compleKeywords: statistics, education, and modern islamic economy

An Intelligent Algorithm to Predict GDP Rate and Find a Relationship Between COVID-19 Outbreak and Economic Downturn.

With the spread of COVID-19, economic damages are challenging for governments and people’s livelihood besides its dangerous and negative impact on humanity's health, which can be led to death. Various health guidelines have been proposed to tackle the virus outbreak including quarantine, restriction rules to imports, exports, migrations, and tourist arrival that were affected by economic depression. Providing an approach to predict the economic situation has a highlighted role in managing crisis when a country faces a problem such as a disease epidemic. We propose an intelligent algorithm to predict the economic situation that utilizes neural networks (NNs) to satisfy the aim. Our work estimates correlation coefficient based on the spearman method between gross domestic product rate (GDPR) and other economic statistics to find effective parameters on growing up and falling GDPR and also determined the NNs’ inputs. We study the reported economic and disease statistics in Germany, India, Australia, and Thailand countries to evaluate the algorithm’s efficiency in predicting economic situation. The experimental results demonstrate the prediction accuracy of approximately 96% and 89% for one and more months ahead, respectively. Our method can help governments to present efficient policies for preventing economic damages.

The Dynamics of Regional Economic Growth and the Priorities of US Regional Economic Policy

Stimulation of the pace and formation of the structure of regional economic growth is invariably one of the fundamental goals of the regional economic policy pursued by the subjects of the federal state. In the context of the cyclical development of regional economic systems and the beginning of the regionalization of the economy of the world leader – the United States of America - the problem of spatial and temporal differentiation of the choice of priorities to stimulate regional economic growth is becoming more urgent. Using the methods of regression modeling and economic statistics, an analysis was made of the influence of the main instruments of regional economic policy on the dynamics of regional economic growth over a long period of time 1961–2020 and forecast up to 2030. The obtained results revealed spatial asymmetries in the combination of the use of fiscal instruments and structural investment measures to regulate economic growth, associated with the level of development of subregions and individual states of the country. The transfer of the investment burden to stimulate regional economic growth in times of crisis to the end consumer is noted. The article substantiates the increasing role of such an instrument of regional policy as the selective regulation of aggregate regional export in the long term, indicating the transition from globalization to regionalization of the development of the economic systems of the states and largest municipalities of the United States to maintain the pace of regional economic growth while changing its structure.

ОСОБЕННОСТИ РАЗВИТИЯ СЕВЕРНЫХ ТЕРРИТОРИЙ СЗФО И ПРОБЛЕМЫ ОБЕСПЕЧЕНИЯ ИНТЕГРАЦИИ ПРОСТРАНСТВА МАКРОРЕГИОНА

One of the key features of the development of the economic space of Russia at the present stage is the coexistence of integration and disintegration processes in it. This is especially acute at the level of such large territorial entities as federal districts. In particular, as part of the North-Western Federal District (NWFD), one can single out its northern and southern zones, on the balanced and mutually agreed development of which the stability of the entire macro-region depends. At the same time, the market transformations of the last decades have had a particularly negative impact on the development of the northern territories. In this regard, the purpose of the work is to study the features and problems of the development of the northern territories of the Northwestern Federal District in the context of ensuring the integration of the space of the macroregion. Based on the analysis of scientific literature, as well as using the tools of economic statistics (σ- and β-convergence), the prerequisites and direction of the development of integration / disintegration processes in the space of the macroregion in 2000–2020 were identified. The conceptual directions for improving the federal and regional socio-economic policy aimed at consolidating the potential of the subjects of the Northwestern Federal District in order to ensure sustainability and integration of the macroregion space are substantiated.

Digital Economy Meets Artificial Intelligence: Forecasting Economic Conditions Based on Big Data Analytics

Big data economy meets artificial intelligence, making the traditional statistical economy gradually evolve into an intelligent economy. Limited by human consciousness, traditional economic models have low prediction accuracy. In traditional statistical methods, the limited sample data also makes it impossible to effectively control and comprehensively forecast macroeconomic and development trends. Data economy has fundamentally transformed the traditional means of economic analysis. This is because the digital economy enables economic connectivity and precise data sharing, which can be used for precise economic statistics and mathematical analysis. Meanwhile, in terms of statistical methods, artificial intelligence methods no longer rely on human consciousness, but more objectively pay attention to economic cause and effect and are more accurate and comprehensive. This paper proposes an economic forecasting method based on artificial intelligence methods combined with big data analytics. In our model, we consider the economic statistics, equilibrium, and future prediction with the big data. Through the artificial intelligence method based on deep learning, the possible political factors, human activity factors, and social environmental factors in actual economic activities are effectively combined to form the main analysis subject affecting the economy. The results show that our model can be used as a basic model for economic statistics, economic analysis, economic decision-making, economic self-regulation, and other functions under the current development trend of the data economy.

Big Data and Official Statistics†

AbstractThe infrastructure and methods for developed countries' economic statistics, largely established in the mid‐20th century, rest almost entirely on survey and administrative data. The increasing difficulty of obtaining survey responses threatens the sustainability of this model. Meanwhile, users of economic data are demanding ever more timely and granular information. “Big data” originally created for other purposes offer the promise of new approaches to the compilation of economic data. Drawing primarily on the U.S. experience, the paper considers the challenges to incorporating big data into the ongoing production of official economic statistics and provides examples of progress towards that goal to date. Beyond their value for the routine production of a standard set of official statistics, new sources of data create opportunities to respond more nimbly to emerging needs for information. The concluding section of the paper argues that national statistical offices should expand their mission to seize these opportunities.

Nietzsche, Trump, and the Social Practices of Valuing Truth

Nietzsche, Trump, and the Social Practices of Valuing Truth

부·울·경 메가시티의 경제성장 효과에 관한 시스템다이내믹스 분석

This study is conducting a System Dynamics analysis for the long-term economic growth outlook for the ultra-regional area of Busan, Ulsan, and Gyeongsangnam-do. The three regional governments have been preparing to launch special local governments in January 2023 toward a global mega-city, and plan to invest about 23 trillion won in public and private sectors with 100 projects in 16 fields by 2027. The development plan presents a vision such as GRDP of about 491 trillion won, population of 10 million, and the establishment of an one-hour living area in the ultra-wide area by 2040. This study analyzes whether or not this vision is achieved. A simple System Dynamics model is considered based on the macroeconomic theory of endogenous growth, and economic growth forecasts until 2040 were derived through quantitative simulations based on various regional economic statistics. As a result, it is suggested that if the above investment plan is continuously and gradually increased, the goal of achieving GRDP in the ultra-regional area is visible, but additional review is needed on the target of population growth.