Abstract
This study is conducting a System Dynamics analysis for the long-term economic growth outlook for the ultra-regional area of Busan, Ulsan, and Gyeongsangnam-do. The three regional governments have been preparing to launch special local governments in January 2023 toward a global mega-city, and plan to invest about 23 trillion won in public and private sectors with 100 projects in 16 fields by 2027. The development plan presents a vision such as GRDP of about 491 trillion won, population of 10 million, and the establishment of an one-hour living area in the ultra-wide area by 2040. This study analyzes whether or not this vision is achieved. A simple System Dynamics model is considered based on the macroeconomic theory of endogenous growth, and economic growth forecasts until 2040 were derived through quantitative simulations based on various regional economic statistics. As a result, it is suggested that if the above investment plan is continuously and gradually increased, the goal of achieving GRDP in the ultra-regional area is visible, but additional review is needed on the target of population growth.
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