Embargo Research Articles

Analysis of the dynamics of production and foreign trade of fish products in Russia. Prospects for the development of the industry in the context of economic sanctions

Purpose: based on long-term data on the dynamics of fish catches and foreign trade in fish products, as well as international comparisons of world fishing powers, analyze the prospects for the development of the domestic fishing industry in the new economic conditions of sanctions confrontation with the countries of the collective West.Method: used such methods of general scientific knowledge as analysis and synthesis, as well as comparisons, tabular and graphical methods.Novelty: a detailed assessment of the factors affecting the growth of domestic fishing and fish farming, including the development of the domestic fishing fleet, was made. The prospects for expanding the sale of fish products on world markets, including on the basis of data on current and prospective consumption in different regions of the world, were considered.Results: the study analyzed a number of sources, including FAOSTAT and Rosstat commodity resource balances, in terms of production, consumption and cross-border trade in fish products. It has been established that after 2014 own consumption and imports are declining, while exports, on the contrary, are gradually increasing. Thus, the main driver of production growth in the industry is expansion to foreign markets. In the context of strengthening anti-Russian sanctions policy, it is necessary to diversify the sales markets for Russian fish products, however, an outdated production base is a significant limitation for the development of the industry.

Potential for the Development of International Transport Corridors in Current Market Conditions

This research is devoted to the prospects for the development of international transport corridors (ITC) through the prism of the dynamics of market forces in the transport industry and world trade. International logistics is currently undergoing a global transformation, and therefore the effective use by Russia of its transport potential is still the most urgent and practical task. In this regard, this research is focused on internal and external factors that influence the realization of this potential. The research presents the factors that contributed in retrospect for more than 10 years to the dynamic development of freight transportation through the ITC “East – West”. Additionally, the impact of exogenous factors such as epidemiological restrictions on a global scale and economic sanctions against Russia on the logistics of container transportation in recent years is considered in more detail. On the basis of a retrospective analysis of the development of cargo transportation through the ITC “East – West” generalized conditions are formulated that allow to assess the potential for the development of transport cargo fl ows on other key ITC. An analysis of the current dynamics and problems of the development of transportation along the corridors East – West, Northern Sea Route and North-South is carried out. Further prospects for their increase from the point of view of transport marketing is provided. Among the conclusions, the importance of developing and expanding the infrastructure of the ITC “East – West”, as well as proposals for the intensifi cation of cargo transportation through other ITC, is highlighted.

Sanctions compliance as a basis for non-performance of contractual obligations

Targeted financial sanctions are routinely used to combat financial crime. As they are endorsed by the United Nations and the Financial Action Task Force, the vast majority of jurisdictions have established regulatory frameworks that make provision for targeted financial sanctions. These frameworks translate into compliance obligations and expectations for so-called regulated entities, which includes banks. Although sanctions have been the subject of much discourse recently in the wake of the escalation of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the risk of non-performance of contractual obligations due to sanctions compliance has not been explored sufficiently. The objective of this contribution is to shed light on the distinction between compliance with domestic sanctions and compliance with foreign sanctions with specific reference to the risk of non-performance of contractual obligations. It focuses on the basis and legal implications of compliance in each case within the context of the bank-customer relationship. This is undertaken primarily from a South African perspective. The contribution finds that compliance with domestic sanctions may give rise to an interference with contractual performance that is rooted in law, while compliance with foreign sanctions may necessitate an interference that is based on either a contractual provision (force majeure clause) or business and reputational considerations. In both instances, clients of banks are less certain that their payment instructions will be processed and banks, in turn, run the risk of being sued. This tension between sanctions and international banking and finance requires serious reflection by the relevant authorities.

Экономика РФ в январе – апреле 2024 года

Based on the analysis of a number of macroeconomic and sectoral indicators, it is established that in January–April 2024, there was an economic decline compared to the corresponding period in 2023. Moreover, the extent of the decline is increasing month by month. It is noteworthy that the authorities, as in the past in the USSR, are turning a blind eye to the decline. The causes of the decline are determined by the combined impact of both cyclical factors (Western economic sanctions, overstrain from military expenditures) and long-term trends of a decline in fixed assets and a reduction in the workforce, as well as the qualifications of personnel at all levels. The future prospects of the Russian economy are determined, along with ensuring effective economic policy and building a functional state system, by the level of escalation of the conflict in Ukraine and the extent of economic sanctions. In the event of significant escalation of military actions, what will be required is a transition to a wartime economy with a high share of military expenditures in GDP, a reduction in consumer spending and non-productive investments, mobilization of labor resources in favor of the armed forces and the military-industrial complex, and the introduction of a rationing system for main food products, as well as the nationalization of several companies. The success of this structural maneuver is determined by the organization and qualifications of the state apparatus. In the case of moderate escalation of military actions and economic sanctions, the radical nature of structural and institutional changes will decrease.

Санкции – странный феномен

The history of international economic sanctions is simultaneously old and relatively young. The first sanctions recorded in written history were applied in ancient times, but the newly introduced punitive economic measures received legal status only after the First World War. At first, sanctions were not given much political significance and there were not many of them. The situation changed radically after the Second World War and especially after the collapse of the USSR. The rapid increase in sanction activity over the past two decades is a manifestation of the desire of the United States and its satellites to protect their position as a world hegemon. The punitive economic apparatus, the most powerful in the United States, is set up for sanction activity and generates restrictions and prohibitions as the main products of its activity. To paraphrase the philosopher Rene Descartes, the western sanctions government officer use to say: “I authorize, therefore I exist”. International economic sanctions are losing their original function as a means of preventing military conflicts and are turning into an economic weapon. But, paradoxically, attempts to interpret them as an instrument of economic policy are not valid, if only due to the fact that working with the categories of “efficiency”, widely used in economic science, is impossible in the case of sanctions. Instead of “efficiency”, the term “effectiveness” should be used, but measuring the latter, unlike “efficiency”, is impossible; therefore, the phenomenon of sanctions, as such, largely goes beyond the scope of economic science. The nature of modern sanctions is perverse. Their use not only entails economic degradation and destruction of the institutional structure of society in the target countries, but also causes damage to the sending countries. Most modern sanctions are illegitimate and have no moral justification. Sanctions and their systematic application are nothing more than a geopolitical weapon used to undermine the sovereignty of independent states. This article shows the historical evolution of the sanctions mechanism, its degeneration and transformation into a stable institutional entity.

Система публічного адміністрування nоргівлі валютними цінностями

The article is devoted to the definition of the system of public administration of trade in currency values, the problem of theoretical substantiation of its elements, the main types of manifestations of the administration of this sphere, the study of the subjects of the implementation of administration functions, the study of the current legislation regulating this sphere of public-legal relations. Particular attention is paid to the definition of the content of the category “trade in currency values”, the disclosure of the legal nature and features of the category “public administration”, the outline of the approaches to the definition of its content and constituent elements available in domestic science. The definition of the system of public administration of trade in currency values and its constituent elements was carried out within the framework of the instrumental theory in law. It was established that, taking into account the initial provisions of the instrumental theory, the instruments of public administration of currency trading in Ukraine should be considered the norms of the current legislation, which determine the procedure for carrying out, in particular, the licensing of this activity, its control, taxation, the application of other management measures, prohibitions in this sphere, activity and law-enforcement acts of public administration bodies that carry out such management activities are empowered to impose administrative and financial sanctions. A proper definition of the category “administration of trade in currency values in Ukraine” is proposed. It was determined that the administration of trade in foreign exchange values takes place on the basis of complexity, reasonableness, flexibility of implementation and adaptability to the conditions of application of control and other measures, the expediency of their application, and orientation towards the consistent solution of current and long-termtasks of the state’s currency policy. The peculiarities of the functioning of subjects of the administration of currency trade in Ukraine, including the National Bank of Ukraine, the Ministry of Economy of Ukraine, the National Commission for Securities and the Stock Market, the State Tax Service of Ukraine and the Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine in general, have been determined. It was found that the main subject of the administration of the outlined spheres of public legal relations is the National Bank of Ukraine. It is he who implements administrative, regulatory, control and other instruments in the field of currency relations. At the same time, other areas of implementation of the administration are disclosed, in particular, the activity of public administration bodies within the framework of taxation procedures of the researched activity is outlined.

BRICS and G7: Global Competition

The goals and policies of the BRICS contradict the policy of the unipolar world, which perpetuates the dependence of developing countries on highly developed countries. This fact makes the BRICS and G7 international associations direct competitors with mutually opposite goals and interests. In such a formulation of the issue, strengthening and increasing the competitiveness of one integration association should lead to weakening and reducing the competitiveness of another integration association. Recently, the size of countries and the size of their populations have not been considered key factors in their competitiveness. However, if we talk about the BRICS member countries, they use these two advantages as a basis for economic growth. The area of the territory of the BRICS countries was 1.85 times the area of the G7, and the population was more than 4 times as of the end of 2022. The current trend towards the entry of new member countries into the BRICS should lead to an even greater advantage in these indicators. The economic growth of the BRICS countries is based on the use of resources and investments, while the economic growth of the G7 countries is based on accumulated wealth, military and political influence in the world. A comparison of the two integration associations in terms of real GDP growth PPP shows that the annual GDP growth of the BRICS countries exceeds the GDP growth of the G7 countries. In addition, the real GDP growth of the BRICS countries is outpacing the growth of global GDP. Key indicators characterizing the size and pace of economic growth indicate the potential for further development of the BRICS and strengthening its competition with the G7 integration bloc. The BRICS countries have shown good economic growth rates even despite the external and internal challenges associated with the crisis in the global economy and numerous economic sanctions. At the same time, the economic development of the BRICS countries is not only quantitative, but also qualitative. Unlike the G7, it is based on the formation and expansion of a free trade system within the integration bloc and the formation of economic institutions that allow overcoming trade barriers between the countries of the association, as well as increasing investment through the New Development Bank created within the BRICS. The success of development and interaction of countries within BRICS attracts new member countries. In 2024, four more countries joined the BRICS bloc, such as Iran, the United Arab Emirates, Egypt and Ethiopia, and currently many more countries are taking the initiative and wish to become members of the integration association. However, competition in the Challenger-Leader format, in addition to incentives for economic growth on the basis of fair competition, simultaneously creates incentives for mutual economic, political and military blocking of the development of countries of the competing bloc, which creates great risks of slowing down global economic development in the future.

War and Economic Growth: What Can Modern RUSSIA Learn From the 20th Century?

After February 2022, the growth of military expenditures and trade sanctions of unfriendly countries were the main factors determining the economic development of the Russian Federation. These factors are nothing new in the world and Russian history. They are typical economic manifestations of military conflicts. The accumulated historical experience, if properly used and correctly interpreted, can help to evaluate the current state of the Russian economy and predict its future. In this context, this article considers the two largest world conflicts (the First and Second World Wars) as well as five major military conflicts of the 20th century in which our country took part. The analyzed experience has identified six major factors. The presence or absence of these factors determines the potential economic growth of a belligerent state. With regard to the presence of these factors, the current economic situation in Russia has been analyzed. The authors have come to the conclusion that there are no prospects for economic growth in modern Russia. Besides, they have justified the need for a structural reorientation of GDP towards increased military and investment spending at the expense of reduced consumption by the population.

From Cuba to the World: The Ripple Effect of US Sanctions

This paper explores the complex and enduring application of U.S. economic sanctions on Cuba, the longest-standing sanctions regime in modern history. Economic sanctions, a prominent tool of international diplomacy, are designed to influence or penalize states to achieve specific political objectives. The study offers a comprehensive historical overview of the sanctions imposed on Cuba since the Cuban Revolution of 1959. It examines the key phases of the embargo, including its escalation under various U.S. administrations and its multifaceted impacts on Cuban domestic affairs and international trade. Through a detailed analysis, this paper reveals that, while the sanctions aimed to induce regime change, their effectiveness has been ambiguous. Domestically, U.S. political dynamics, particularly the influence of Cuban-American voters and shifting political agendas, have significantly shaped the persistence and intensity of the sanctions. Furthermore, the study highlights how the sanctions have impacted global trade dynamics, illustrating that the U.S. has maintained a quasi-monopolistic advantage in the Cuban market while ostensibly addressing humanitarian concerns. The findings indicate that the sanctions on Cuba, rather than being a straightforward case of failure, have provided strategic benefits to the U.S. despite their limited success in achieving their primary political goals. This nuanced perspective sheds light on the broader implications of economic sanctions and their role in international relations.

TOPICAL ISSUES OF DOCTRINE AND COURT PRACTICE ON THE INTERNATIONAL RESPONSIBILITY OF THE STATE FOR THE ACTIVITIES OF FOREIGN NON-STATE ARMED GROUPS

The article examines the topical issues of doctrine and international judicial practice regarding the determination of the State's responsibility for international wrongful acts, in particular, those related to the activities of foreign non-State armed groups. The authors analyse the international legal framework of State responsibility for international wrongful acts, as well as individual criminal liability of individuals. The paper substantiates a set of economic and legal instruments for the implementation of international responsibility (reparations, satisfaction, restitution, economic sanctions) as a mechanism for ensuring compliance with international law by States. The study identifies the legal positions of the International Court of Justice, the International Criminal Court, the International Criminal Tribunal for the former Yugoslavia, the European Court of Human Rights and other international judicial institutions on the application of the concepts of "effective control" and "overall control" in judicial practice, as well as problematic issues of law enforcement.

Measuring financial stability in the presence of energy shocks

The Russia–Ukraine conflict highlighted how important energy is for the surveillance of economies worldwide. Both war and economic sanctions inevitably affected energy-related commodity prices. Although shocks in energy commodities are known to have an effect on financial stability, this information is not included in existing financial stability indicators. In this paper, we first provide empirical evidence on the existing relationship between energy-related commodities and financial stability in the EU, UK and US, as well as their importance in the forecast of economic downturns. Based on this evidence, we propose a new composite indicator of financial stability which incorporates relevant information from the energy markets. The suitability of the new composite indicator is assessed by its ability to track financial, economic, and energy crises.

Economic sanctions and energy efficiency: Evidence from Iranian industrial sub-sectors

Improving energy efficiency is vital for reducing energy consumption and can have substantial impacts on reducing carbon emissions. This study investigates the impact of sanctions on Iran's energy efficiency across different industrial sub-sectors from 2015 to 2019. We compute a sanction intensity index for each industrial sub-sector using principal component analysis. This index measures how much each sub-sector has been affected by sanctions. Additionally, energy efficiency is measured using the directional distance function method, considering the emission impacts as undesirable outputs. We use fixed effects regression analysis, adjusting for various manifestations of cross-sectional (spatial) and temporal dependence and controlling for other sectoral drivers of energy efficiency. We find a significant negative effect of sanction intensity on energy efficiency at the industrial sub-sector level in Iran. The negative effect of sanctions on energy efficiency is significantly larger for industrial units with higher import dependency.

The Action Plan of the Ministry of Energy as a tool to conduct structural modernization and ensure Russia's technological sovereignty. Part 1

Subject. The article addresses problems of official data systematization in the energy sector, rule-making activities of ministries and departments of the Russian Federation. Objectives. The purpose of the study is to assess the situation in the energy sector, determine the relevance of the current Action Plan of the Ministry of Energy of the Russian Federation for 2019–2024 in view of the new economic sanctions. Methods. The study employs methods of comparative analysis. Results. The paper established that the Action Plan of the Ministry of Energy of the Russian Federation for 2019–2024 cannot be considered as an effective tool to carry out structural modernization of the fuel and energy complex and secure the technological sovereignty of the country. Conclusions. To change the current situation, it is necessary to rethink the principles of building the entire system of strategic planning.

Financial risks and economic costs of trade sanctions

This paper selects the panel data of 31 provinces, autonomous regions, and municipalities in China from 2012 to 2022 as a sample. It empirically analyzes the relationship between financial risk and economic costs in the context of trade sanctions and the mediating effect of technological innovation. It is found that the financial risk of trade sanctions significantly increases economic costs and also indirectly exacerbates these costs by affecting technological innovation. This study reveals the far-reaching effects of financial risks of trade sanctions on the economy, emphasizes the critical role of technological innovation in mitigating sanctions shocks, and provides new perspectives and references for policymakers.

Daniel McDowell: Bucking the Buck: US Financial Sanctions and the International Backlash against the Dollar

Daniel McDowell: Bucking the Buck: US Financial Sanctions and the International Backlash against the Dollar

The Sanctions Principles-Based Regulation: A Blueprint for a New Approach for the EU Sanctions Policy (Part I)

192 Despite the tremendous number of studies devoted to the effectiveness of economic sanctions, the unprecedented number of sanctions applied and the recent European Union (EU) reforms on sanctions, sanctions effectiveness should be still a matter of debate. More than a year after Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, but G7-led sanctions have not materially hindered Russia’s war effort. This study intends to address this problem by focusing on how to make the use and application of EU sanctions against Russia more effective. In doing so, I argue that the main impediments to EU sanctions effectiveness are systemic in nature and inherent to the EU sanctions policy framework. The piecemeal changes of the EU sanctions regulatory framework undertaken so far have not solved these systemic flaws that undermine the effectiveness of EU sanctions. A fundamental revision of the entire system of the EU sanctions policy framework is needed. This study proposes implementing a comprehensive principles-based framework for EU sanctions policy, where harmonisation and the risk-based approach are its foundations, to make sanctions more effective. The proposed sanctions principles-based framework is broader in its scope than is currently the case; it covers a broader set of principles. The proposed frame includes all the stages of the sanctions process, is addressed to a broader number of actors and its foundations are developed. I recommend that this sanctions principles-based framework should be mandatory for use. This is the first part of a two-part article. Part I of the article discusses the need for the revision of the regulatory approach to the EU sanctions policy to increase the effectiveness of sanctions. It includes the analysis of the EU sanctions as a foreign policy instrument and a comprehensive overview of the EU regulatory framework on sanctions as well as the analysis of imposition of the EU sanctions against Russia. Part I also discusses policy proposals for the effectiveness of the EU sanctions, such as harmonisation of the EU sanction policy and the application of a sanctions risk-based approach.

On the effectiveness of the civil regime's penalty-setting framework against insider dealing in the UK

This paper carries out a first-of-its-kind evaluation of the effectiveness of insider dealing policy in the UK focusing on the civil regime's penalty-setting framework against individuals. Under the assumption that there is a risk of underestimating illegal benefits from insider dealing for the purposes of a penalty determination, and due to the ambiguous punitive nature of disgorgement, the paper puts forward a novel two-step algorithm for inferring a deterrent effect from a civil financial sanction. It is found that in around half of the included cases deterrence is undermined. Hence the implementation of the policy may have been ineffective.

Impairing Globalization: The Russo-Ukrainian War, Western Economic Sanctions and Asset Seizures

The potency of economic sanctions imposed on nations depends on demand and supply adjustment possibilities. Adverse GDP impacts will be maximal when import, export, production, distribution and finance are inflexible (universal non-substitution). This paper elaborates on these conditions and quantifies the maximum GDP loss that Western sanctions could have inflicted on Russia in 2022–2023. It reports the World Bank’s predictions, contrasts them with the results and draws inferences about the efficiency of Russia’s workably competitive markets. This paper shows that Russia’s economic system exhibits moderate universal substitutability and is less vulnerable to punitive discipline than Western policymakers suppose. The likelihood that economic sanctions will compel the Kremlin to restore Ukraine’s territorial integrity ceteris paribus is correspondingly low, even though war reduces Russia’s quality of existence. Western economic sanctions serve narrow geostrategic ends that are reconcilable with Pareto-efficient free trade and globalization, if precision-targeted, but as the Russo-Ukrainian war intensifies, an expanded array of novel and dubiously legal sanctions is degrading free trade, and spurring de-globalization and anti-Western coalitions. If this armed combat is prolonged, the goals of free trade and globalization could be set back for decades.

Mental Resilience in Crisis: Examining the Mental Health and Well‐Being of Iranian Athletes During the COVID‐19 Pandemic

ABSTRACTThe pervasive impact of COVID‐19 and economic sanctions has significantly influenced the well‐being of Iranian athletes, leaving lasting imprints on both their physical and mental health. During this challenging time, this comprehensive study delves into the nuanced disparities among various cohorts of Iranian athletes across multiple dimensions, including insomnia severity, psychological distress, anxiety, depression, intrusive thoughts, life satisfaction, and hope. Stratifying the participants based on their professionalism level, age, education, sports activity engagement, and COVID‐19 infection status, our survey‐based findings from a cohort of 280 athletes reveal compelling insights: Male athletes exhibit higher levels of distress, anxiety, and depression compared to their female counterparts. Professional athletes manifest elevated psychological distress, anxiety, and depression in contrast to semi‐professional and amateur athletes. Insomnia severity is more prevalent among professional athletes, concurrently accompanied by higher levels of hope within this group. Young athletes and those with higher educational attainment report increased intrusive thoughts. Local and national athletes demonstrate higher levels of life satisfaction and hope compared to their international counterparts. Athletes not infected with Coronavirus experience heightened psychological distress compared to their COVID‐19‐infected counterparts. This nuanced exploration underscores the intricate interplay between various factors and their profound implications for the mental well‐being of Iranian athletes in the face of global health challenges and economic constraints. By recognizing the vulnerabilities exposed during the pandemic and sanctions, policymakers can work toward a more resilient and robust sports sector, ensuring that the mental health and psychosocial well‐being of athletes remain at the forefront of policy considerations.

The attractiveness of the BRICS and G7 countries in the global hydrocarbon market

The increasing international political tensions and the growing use of economic sanctions in world markets have made it more important to compare the prospects for the development of major players in the global economy. The aim of this study is to evaluate the potential of the BRICS and G7 countries based on the attractiveness of their industries for other countries, including those from the Global South and East, which are still undecided about joining either group. To achieve this goal, the following objectives were set and achieved: to obtain statistically significant data on the capabilities of associations, taking into account the political and economic orientation of supranational organizations; to form and compare the financial and economic profiles of industry participants from BRICS, G7, and non-aligned countries; to assess the attractiveness and development potential of players in the BRICS and G7 markets. The methodology used has been based on regression analysis, comparative analysis, multidimensional analysis, and nonparametric testing of corporate financial statements from public companies in 2019 and 2020. The analysis of the images of the industry residents of BRICS, G7, and “neutral” countries has allowed to identify a trend toward increased polarization and growing differences between the BRICS and G7 members. The criteria for this trend are indicators of business margins, sales volumes, capital, and the volume of non-current assets. According to three out of four criteria, the overall image of an industry resident from BRICS is more attractive than that of from G7 due to multiple exceedances of the values of these criteria indicators. This serves as a clear example of the potential for undecided countries from the Global South and East to join this association and strengthens BRICS’ authority and development.