National Economic Security Research Articles

American Economic Sovereignty: The Foundation of U.S. World Leadership

By the beginning of the 21st century, the US world leadership had reached such a scale and depth that it prompted researchers in both domestic and foreign literature to refer to globalization as "Americanization". Meanwhile, the increasing unevenness in global economic development has led to a new trend – regionalization and a “parade” of national economic sovereignties, the formation of a new economic order, and a multipolar world. However, the United States began to fight for its national economic sovereignty immediately after the adoption of its Constitution and the formation of its first government in 1789. Over the next two centuries, the American liberal economic model was established in international economic relations not only due to its growing competitiveness but also through the use of a wide variety of non-economic, non-market methods. That is why issues of economic sovereignty, as the basis of national economic security have been and remain on the agenda of any U.S. government, regardless of party affiliation. Moreover, American hegemony serves not only to reinforce economic sovereignty but also brings substantial benefits to citizens, businesses, and the state. To explore the topic within this article, we will focus on key issues such as a brief historical overview, internal factors, and external factors associated with modern geopolitical processes.

دمج أهداف التنمية المستدامة في إستراتيجيات الأمن الوطني: دراسة حالة اليابان

This study provides an analysis of the integrative relationship between sustainable development and national security, highlighting how sustainable development goals can be incorporated into national security strategies to ensure long-term stability for nations. The study examines the Japanese experience as a pioneering model in achieving a balanced approach between investing in human capital, environmental protection, social justice, and sound governance policies. Japan offers a practical example of how to address environmental and social challenges through innovation in education, healthcare, and sustainable development. The study explores the dimensions of sustainable development, focusing on environmental, economic, and social aspects, while also reviewing the dimensions of national security, including military, political, social, economic, and environmental security, clarifying the interactive relationships between these dimensions. The study concludes that sustainable development is not merely an economic objective but a fundamental pillar for enhancing national security. Investment in education, healthcare, and environmental protection contributes to achieving internal stability and addressing future challenges. The study emphasizes that national security relies on sustainable policies that encompass environmental and social dimensions, which Japan has successfully embodied through comprehensive strategies that serve as a model to be emulated.

CANADA AND ECONOMIC SECURITY: THE WAY AHEAD

In August-September 2024, Global Affairs Canada held public consultations on “Potential New Measures to Advance and Defend Canada’s Economic Security Interests.” The inputs provided will help the Government of Canada update or develop approaches and measures that would advance Canada’s economic security interests. The following analysis and recommendations were submitted by the author in response to the call for expert views on the subject. The author argues that, in addition to public consultations, Canada still needs a strategic framework to think about national security, prosperity and economic security in a comprehensive, whole-of-governmet fashion and makes five specific recommendations. Canada should: 1. Develop, promulgate and implement a whole-of-government National Economic Security Strategy; 2. Undertake an in-depth intelligence-based all-source threat assessment of foreign economic threats to Canada, including an unclassified version for Canadians, prior to deciding on the measures to be taken in the National Economic Security Strategy to secure Canada’s economic security and prosperity; 3. Undertake a full cost analysis of the gains and losses to the Canadian economy and individual economic security from the applications of all the measures delineated in the National Economic Security Strategy; 4. Undertake an in-depth analysis of how allies and other states would respond to the implementation of a new National Economic Security Strategy (taking into account the best, worst and most likely outcomes) and develop options, to be included in the Strategy, to mitigate the risk of harmful outcomes; and 5. Consider developing a National Industrial Strategy and an International Trade Strategy alongside or as key components of the National Economic Security Strategy. Received: 09-24-2024 Revised: 10-25-2024

New realities of economic cooperation between Russia and Mongolia

The article examines the development of the Mongolian vector of foreign economic policy, the strategy of Russia’s turn to the East, within which it seeks global multipolarity and a reduction in opportunities for U.S. domination. In Russia’s confrontation with the United States and its allies after the reunification of Crimea in 2014 and especially after the start of the Russian Special military operation in February 2022 of particular importance is the development of Russian-Mongolian economic and political cooperation in the Russia-Mongolia-China triangle and in regional associations (EAEU, SCO, ASEAN, etc.). The article shows that Mongolia, which sticks to political neutrality, is actively developing economic ties with both neighboring countries – Russia and China – and (within the framework of the “third neighbor” concept) with the United States, the EU, Japan, South Korea and other developed countries, in competition with which Russia now has to renew the economic partnership with Mongolia once lost after the collapse of the USSR. The result of the study is the conclusion that currently Russia’s foreign economic interests in Mongolia are mainly built on the economic and infrastructure projects of the Chinese Initiative “One Belt, One Road”, thereby strengthening the Chinese factor in the bilateral Russian-Mongolian economic partnership, which in the future may lead to new risks to national economic security.

Sustainability of the real sector of the Russian economy: Economic security and sanctions realities

Aim. To investigate the essence of the real sector of the Russian economy and identify the features of its impact on achieving economic security under sanctions.Objectives. To determine the essence of the real sector of the economy and assess its contribution to the stability of the national economy under sanctions; to identify the stages of development of the real sector of the Russian economy; to form an approach to regulating the real sector in the context of achieving economic security.Methodology. The research uses methods of comparative, structural, functional, and historical (retrospective) analysis, as well as tools of systemic and institutional approaches.Results. The real sector of the economy includes the production of goods and services, its functioning is associated with the creation of new value. This distinguishes it from the virtual and financial sectors where real, tangible goods are not created and where, in fact, the product formed in the real sector is redistributed. In crisis conditions, the developed real sector serves as the basis for the functioning of the economy and the satisfaction of basic economic needs, its stability determines national economic security.Conclusions. In modern conditions, characterized by sanctions pressure on Russia from unfriendly countries, the real sector of the economy plays an important role in ensuring the stability of the country’s economy as a whole. Its dynamics largely determines protection against traditional and new (sanctions-related) threats and risks to economic security. At the same time, there is a need for government support and regulation of the development of the real sector, which is associated with many different difficulties. To increase the effectiveness of this regulation, a permanent search for a balance between the use of planned and market instruments is required, the development of a mixed system of economic regulation that combines the tools of market and planned approaches. This will make it possible for the state to flexibly and adaptively manage the process of ensuring national economic security.

Customs Intelligence Strategy Encountering Smuggling Threats in a Changing World

This research analyzes the intelligence strategies employed by the Directorate General of Customs and Excise (DGCE) in Indonesia to combat the evolving landscape of smuggling in the era of Industry 4.0. The study aims to identify and analyze current intelligence practices and subsequently formulate effective strategies for early detection, prevention, and suppression of smuggling activities. Employing a qualitative research methodology, the study utilizes NVivo 14 software to analyze data gathered from relevant sources. The findings reveal a significant increase in the complexity of smuggling operations, characterized by the involvement of transnational organized crime syndicates, sophisticated trade-based money laundering schemes, and the exploitation of electronic commerce (e-commerce) platforms. Despite these challenges, the research indicates that customs intelligence has not been fully maximized as a tool for economic security. Therefore, this study proposes the adoption of a dynamic and adaptive customs intelligence strategy. This strategy encompasses crucial aspects such as strengthening legal frameworks, optimizing organizational structure, enhancing human resource capabilities, and modernizing intelligence facilities and infrastructure. With implementing these recommendations, the DGCE can optimize the role of customs intelligence in safeguarding national economic security and effectively enforcing customs and excise laws in the face of increasingly sophisticated smuggling threats.

ANALYSIS AND PROSPECTS OF ENSURING NATIONAL ECONOMIC SECURITY IN THE CONTEXT OF THE MODERN PARADIGM OF ECONOMIC SANCTIONS

The article considers and substantiates a set of measures to ensure economic security in modern, sanctioned economic conditions, which can include: the results of the impact of a package of sanctions from unfriendly foreign states in the period from 2022-2024 with a forecast until 2026. The necessity of ensuring economic security in the prevailing conditions is proved. The authors, based on the analysis of economic processes, substantiate the need to ensure economic security as a tool to counteract the impact of sanctions, and propose directions for finding reserves in conditions of severe economic sanctions. Objective. Development of recommendations on measures to ensure national economic security, taking into account its current level and the state of the external environment. Method and methodology of the work. To achieve the goal set in the article, the authors used methods of comparative, logical and statistical analysis. The analysis of the main economic indicators was applied, the dynamics of economic development indicators was compared. Results. The directions of ensuring economic security have been developed, including: 1. maximum localization of production of critical products; 2. support for manufacturers providing parallel imports of industrial and technical products to Russia; 3. the level of investment support. 4. using the development of the military-industrial complex as a driver of growth in the future (taking into account its comprehensive modernization); 5. supporting the country's financial system using stabilization tools and sound economic policy. Practical implications. The results obtained can be used as a basis for ensuring economic security, taking into account modern conditions formed under the influence of sanctions.

Retooling the regulation of net-zero subsidies: lessons from the US Inflation Reduction Act

Abstract The US Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) has heralded the advent of a new era of industrial policy within and beyond the USA. As the net-zero economy transition unfolds and national economic security paradigms entrench, industrial policy is here to stay. Net-zero subsidies are employed as multipurpose policy tools to promote domestic manufacturing, de-risk from China, and boost the net-zero transition. This new scenario prompts a fresh look at old questions surrounding environmental subsidies and their justification, actionability, and countervailability. This article makes three contributions. First, it articulates a conceptual framework to assess questions surrounding the justification of net-zero subsidies. It advocates a direct focus on their environmental effectiveness, drawing a distinction between justifiable trade-distorting effects and unjustifiable protective or discriminatory application associated with the pursuit of reshoring or geopolitical goals. Second, it employs a careful analysis of different IRA tax credits to operationalize the article’s framework and test its robustness. Third, it draws on legal and economic insights to shed some light on the environmental effects of different groups of net-zero subsidies. On these grounds, it advances a streamlined three-fold categorization and demarcates the boundaries within which different subsidies should be justifiable, non-actionable and non-countervailable.

The development of strategic industrial sectors of Ukraine in the context of national economic security: theoretical foundations

The article demonstrates the need to identify strategic sectors of industry for the social and economic development of the state, which allows focusing the attention and limited resources of the state on supporting the development of those sectors that ensure national economic security. Within the epistemological contextualism, the concept of "strategic sector" is defined. To classify an industry sector as strategic, proposed criteria are outlined based on objective, sustainable circumstances in the country's economy, and within the context of national economic security. The definition of "national economic security" is provided. The criteria for recognizing the strategic nature of an industrial sector within the context of national economic security are determined by operationalizing constructs derived from the proposed definition of a "strategic industrial sector". Quantitative indicators are proposed to quantitatively describe the degree (intensity) of the criterion for recognizing the strategic nature of an industrial sector within the context of national economic security. The development of the strategic sector of the industry in the context of national economic security is ensured by critical enterprises in the industry. To recognize enterprises in strategic industrial sectors as critical for the industry's development in the context of national economic security, a number of criteria have been proposed. The development of critical enterprises in the industry should be security-oriented in nature. Support and regulation of security-oriented development of enterprises in the strategic industrial complex of Ukraine, which are to include recognized strategically important industries based on proposed criteria for national economic security, should be carried out using a comprehensive mechanism of state regulation of the country's strategic industrial complex. An important element of the comprehensive mechanism of state regulation of the country's strategic industrial complex is the mechanism of state support, which is implemented through various tools distributed among the components of the mechanism.

Підходи до формування економічної безпеки машинобудівного комплексу україни та зарубіжних країнах в аспекті міжнародної економічної діяльності

The article explores approaches to forming the economic security of Ukraine’s machine-building complex, drawing on international experience and global economic activity. In the context of globalization and increasing competition, Ukrainian enterprises need to enhance productivity, which is currently 40% lower than in EU countries. In 2023, the capital assets per worker amounted to approximately 1.5 million UAH, almost half of that in Poland and the Czech Republic. The machine-building sector requires 5–7 billion UAH investments annually over the next five years to reach European productivity standards. Analysis shows that a 10% increase in automation could boost productivity by 8% and reduce costs by 5%, allowing export volumes to rise to 20 billion UAH annually, up from the current 14 billion UAH, contributing up to 1 billion USD in annual foreign currency inflows to the economy. Applying technology gap and economic security theories in practice supports the development of state policy strategies to bridge technological gaps, strengthen national economic security in the machine-building sector, and maintain global competitiveness. An adapted formula for assessing the technology gap in the machine-building sector between Ukraine (country U) and a developed country (country D) demonstrates this need. For example, the technology index for Ukraine’s aquaculture sector stands at 40, compared to 90 in Norway, with a 55.6% gap indicating significant technological lag in the aquaculture industry. This suggests a need for modernization, increased automation, and investments in eco-friendly technologies to improve efficiency and competitiveness internationally. The study’s findings underline that applying technology gap theory can help define strategic approaches to narrowing the gap with more developed countries and creating a modern technological foundation essential for enhancing the competitiveness of the country’s machine-building sector. Keywords: machine-building complex, industry, economic security, investment, international economic activity, competitiveness, state policy, regulation, world market, foreign countries.

ENSURING RUSSIA'S TECHNOLOGICAL SECURITY: GOALS, PROBLEMS, WAYS TO ACHIEVE

The purpose of the study: to analyze the possibilities of achieving technological security by the Russian economy, as well as to consider the system of effective mechanisms and measures applied by the state. It is noted that technological security in the context of sanctions pressure from the West has become an integral part of national economic security. It is aimed, first of all, at ensuring the safety of all technical and technological processes. Priority attention in the study is given to Industry 4.0 technologies, the development of which is necessary to achieve the country's competitiveness in world markets and achieve technological security. The approaches to defining technological security and technological sovereignty are analyzed, the main goals, conditions and problems of achieving it, as well as the economic mechanisms used by the state are determined. The theoretical basis of the scientific work was the use of general scientific methods of cognition to the processes and phenomena under study. The use of a logical approach made it possible to interpret the results obtained during the study, as well as draw conclusions and formulate proposals for the use of various mechanisms, tools and models to achieve the country's technological security.

The political economy of import substitution and Russian practice

The article analyzes the processes of import substitution in the high–tech segment of the economy of the Russian Federation - in the IT sphere. The purpose of the article is to explore the modern features of the Russian IT market of new trends. It is shown that import substitution can play an important role in stabilizing and balancing the market, which is confirmed by research by serious authors, including domestic ones, and the existing practice in the world – both developed and developing countries. The article shows that one of the directions of sanctions imposed by Western "partners" against the Russian Federation was the desire to undermine the domestic IT sector. For this purpose, in 2014–2023, almost all significant foreign actors left our country. However, the domestic IT market has shown growth 2 times higher than the global figure. This was facilitated by the general economic growth in the Russian Federation, the growth of state support for the industry, significant investments by domestic enterprises in the IT sector, as well as the need to ensure national technological sovereignty and general economic security. The author comes to the conclusion that the IT market in Russia has not only been preserved, but has also been further developed both in quantitative and qualitative parameters, which confirms, firstly, its resilience, and secondly, the presence in our country of technical, financial, qualification, scientific, innovative as well as infrastructural opportunities for its development. The policy and practice of import substitution played a crucial role in this.

Can hybrid model improve the forecasting performance of stock price index amid COVID-19? Contextual evidence from the MEEMD-LSTM-MLP approach

The sudden eruption of COVID-19 has inflicted tremendous damage to the worldwide economy, and stock markets have become violently volatile due to its negative impact. Therefore, accurate forecasting of stock price index has been playing an essential role in maintaining national economic security and formulating related policies. In this paper, a novel decomposition-ensemble model is proposed to predict the highly fluctuating stock price index. To begin with, the modified ensemble empirical mode decomposition (MEEMD) method is adopted to decompose the original stock price index into subsequences with different frequencies. Then, the last high-frequency subsequence and other subsequences are predicted through multilayer perceptron (MLP) and long short-term memory (LSTM), respectively. Finally, the prediction outcomes of different model subsequences are reconstructed into the ultimate prediction results by utilizing the integration method. Compared with the contrast models, the MEEMD-LSTM-MLP model proposed in our paper not only demonstrates significant advantages in multi-step forecasting for both emerging and developed markets, but also achieves excellent prediction performance amidst the severe market fluctuations triggered by COVID-19. Furthermore, the application of the MEEMD-LSTM-MLP model is extended to financial time series with different data characteristics and market types, which further proves its high applicability and reliability. Therefore, the conducted hybrid MEEMD-LSTM-MLP model is an effective and stable multi-step forecasting tool to provide valuable intelligent technical support for governments and enterprises in complex economic conditions.

A study on national economic security diplomacy strategy and support measures for marine and fisheries sector in Korea - Focus on RCEP, CPTPP, and IPEF -

A study on national economic security diplomacy strategy and support measures for marine and fisheries sector in Korea - Focus on RCEP, CPTPP, and IPEF -

Research on time-series financial data prediction and analysis based on deep recurrent neural network

Time series data is widely available in a variety of industries. By forecasting time series, decision-makers can better grasp future trends and make more effective decisions. Financial time series data exhibit non-stationarity and high volatility. High-frequency fluctuations in financial products such as exchange rates, bonds and equities may reflect external shocks and risks in global financial markets, which are potentially dangerous and may threaten national economic security or even trigger financial crises. For financial time series data, a deep recurrent neural network first progressively processes each data point in the time series through its recurrent unit. Each recurring unit can adjust its own weights to better predict or analyze future values. Over time, these recurrent units continuously update their internal state, resulting in a comprehensive understanding of the characteristics of the entire data sequence. In addition, we add a gating mechanism to further improve the network's ability to control the flow of information, so that the model is more effective when retaining long-term dependencies, so as to improve the accuracy of prediction and the stability of the model. Experimental results show that our recurrent neural network model shows higher prediction accuracy and stability than other baseline models on financial time series datasets.

Research on Trade Risk and Preventive Measures of Domestic Anti-wear Hydraulic Oil Products

With the acceleration of global economic integration, the international trade activities of domestic anti-wear hydraulic oil products continue to increase, and the trade risks of chemical products such as anti-wear hydraulic oil products brought by export are also highlighted. In order to prevent the trade risk of domestic anti-wear hydraulic oil products, this paper puts forward some strategies, such as strengthening market research, implementing diversified market strategy, strengthening communication with international partners and establishing trade risk early warning mechanism, to solve the problems of unstable market demand, price fluctuation, trade barriers and policy risk faced by the trade of domestic anti-wear hydraulic oil products. In order to provide a useful reference for ensuring the stability and sustainable development of China's anti-wear hydraulic oil industry and further enhancing national economic security.

Balance of the national economy and economic security

Balance of the national economy and economic security

Legal Basis for Ensuring Economic Security in the People’s Republic of China

This study is aimed at analyzing the economic security management system in the People’s Republic of China (PRC). The purpose of the publication is to determine the evolution of the legal framework for the formation of China’s economic security system, as well as scientific efforts in this area. The author reveals the key approaches of Chinese scholars to understanding economic security, and reflects the disclosure of various aspects of national and economic security in the Constitution of the People’s Republic of China and numerous legal acts. The methodology of the article is based on the use of the methods of analysis and synthesis, retrospective analysis, modeling, legal analysis, induction and deduction. The scientific novelty of the article is to substantiate the criteria for studying the paradigm shift in ensuring economic security as part of China’s national security and, on this basis, to identify four stages of development of the institutional framework for ensuring economic security in the Chinese State. The paper analyzes in detail the concepts and ideas of achieving economic security that have developed in the scientific community of China. The author examines the trends in changes in state policy on national security and the development of social relations in the context of the growing importance of economic security. The authors also study the overall system of economic security, analyze its components and mechanisms of interaction between them. The authors emphasize the transition from the traditional concept of national security, which is mainly based on the military sphere, to a new paradigm with an emphasis on ensuring the economic stability of the country. The author presents the system of Chinese legal acts regulating activities related to national economic security. Particular attention is paid to the possibility of comparing the results of this study with other similar studies in order to develop clearer guidelines for theoretical research and practical activities in the field of national economic security. From the methodological point of view, the article uses a dialectical approach that combines theoretical research methods from various sciences (history, legal analysis) to ensure the depth and breadth of the analysis. The study concludes that strengthening administrative and legal support for economic security will help strengthen China’s position both domestically and internationally. For Ukraine, the approach adopted by the Chinese government will help clarify some theoretical concepts and aspects of economic security practices, providing guidance for the public administration in addressing common problems related to national security.

Метод потоков в диагностике угроз национальной экономической безопасности России

The work identifies the problem of discrepancy between the rapidly growing importance of national economic security (NES) of Russia and the degree of its scientific elaboration according to such criteria as clarity in defining the subject of NES, methodology for studying NES, mechanisms for connecting scientific research with education and practice of NES. The article is devoted to the study of the dynamics of teacher and scientist staff. The research is carried out using a new method developed by the author – the Flow Method. The novelty of the Flow Method begins with a change in the idea of the object of study. In traditional approaches, an object is fixed, and is studied from different sides in different periods of time; the Flow Method focuses the researcher’s attention on the movement of resource flows in the economic environment. In such a movement of resources, the following are distinguished: inflows, outflows, accumulations. Normally, the movement of resources is balanced. It is appropriate to consider sanctions as the most important component of a hybrid war, aimed at unbalancing the resources of the national economy by blocking flows. The study showed that the representation of the movement of resources by the Flow Method differs from traditional representations in statistics and accounting. Approbation of the Method in diagnosing the state of personnel in scientific and educational institutions showed strategic threats to the national security of the Russian Federation. Since 2015, the number of scientists and teachers with an academic degree has been continuously decreasing. The flow method allows us to dispel the myth that if scientists leave region A, they will simply work in another region. This study refutes such a hypothesis. Scientists, in particular, can change their specialty, leave the country, etc. The noted situation is similar for all 16 cities with a population of over a million in Russia, including Moscow and St. Petersburg and 18 constituent entities of the Russian Federation. The influx of young scientists is decreasing while the workforce continues to age. If we ignore the results obtained, then in 5–10 years, for example, the Omsk region will begin to lose the ability to train specialists with higher education, not to mention candidates and doctors of science. A similar situation awaits other regions.

The role of energy security – selected issues

Energy security is related to the political situation of individual countries and affects both national security and economic security. The article addresses both legal and economic issues. It discusses the importance of legal regulations and the country’s economic situation. It also addresses the context of the war between Russia and Ukraine and its impact on this security and energy transformation.