Метод потоков в диагностике угроз национальной экономической безопасности России

Abstract

The work identifies the problem of discrepancy between the rapidly growing importance of national economic security (NES) of Russia and the degree of its scientific elaboration according to such criteria as clarity in defining the subject of NES, methodology for studying NES, mechanisms for connecting scientific research with education and practice of NES. The article is devoted to the study of the dynamics of teacher and scientist staff. The research is carried out using a new method developed by the author – the Flow Method. The novelty of the Flow Method begins with a change in the idea of the object of study. In traditional approaches, an object is fixed, and is studied from different sides in different periods of time; the Flow Method focuses the researcher’s attention on the movement of resource flows in the economic environment. In such a movement of resources, the following are distinguished: inflows, outflows, accumulations. Normally, the movement of resources is balanced. It is appropriate to consider sanctions as the most important component of a hybrid war, aimed at unbalancing the resources of the national economy by blocking flows. The study showed that the representation of the movement of resources by the Flow Method differs from traditional representations in statistics and accounting. Approbation of the Method in diagnosing the state of personnel in scientific and educational institutions showed strategic threats to the national security of the Russian Federation. Since 2015, the number of scientists and teachers with an academic degree has been continuously decreasing. The flow method allows us to dispel the myth that if scientists leave region A, they will simply work in another region. This study refutes such a hypothesis. Scientists, in particular, can change their specialty, leave the country, etc. The noted situation is similar for all 16 cities with a population of over a million in Russia, including Moscow and St. Petersburg and 18 constituent entities of the Russian Federation. The influx of young scientists is decreasing while the workforce continues to age. If we ignore the results obtained, then in 5–10 years, for example, the Omsk region will begin to lose the ability to train specialists with higher education, not to mention candidates and doctors of science. A similar situation awaits other regions.