Economic Growth Trends Research Articles

The Role of Technology and Investment in the Business Sector in Driving Net Exports and Economic Growth

This study examines the role of technology and investment in the business sector in driving net exports and economic growth. This study uses secondary data from world banks to process regression using the moving average autoregression method. When the government focuses on directing the export-oriented Indonesian economy by increasing investment in the business sector and investment in the development of supporting technology for an export-oriented economy will result in integration between the business, technology and international trade sectors that will encourage net exports and export-based economic growth with a fluctuating economic growth trend following global economic conditions. However, despite this economic growth is positive.

Socioeconomic profile and quality of life In triângulo mineiro and alto Paranaíba region (Brazil)

The present work aims to present the results of the analysis regarding the Socioeconomic Profile of the municipalities that make up the Mesoregion of Triângulo Mineiro/Alto Paranaíba, Minas Gerais, Brazil. The survey and analysis of socioeconomic indicators, from the years 2004 and 2014, aimed to search for devices in order to develop a methodology for analyzing the quality of life of the municipalities that make up the mesoregion, taking into account the specificities of the urban network from the Cerrado Mineiro and the Brazilian urbanization process. It is understood that the quality of life does not depend only on a good offer of essential public services, but on an effective spatial distribution of advanced services regarding health, education, culture, leisure, etc., among the municipalities of the same region. In addition, it is extremely important to consider the population's financial capacity to access these services, a factor that demonstrates the real need to analyze their Socioeconomic Profile. For this analysis, we used the indicators made available by the João Pinheiro Foundation, through the Minas Gerais Social Responsibility Index (IMRS), using the 66 municipalities that make up the mesoregion of Triângulo Mineiro and Alto Paranaíba as the scale of analysis. The data were collected, tabulated and imported into the ArcGIS 10.1 software, in which cartograms were produced. The results presented provided the recognition of the positive evolution overview of the socioeconomic profile, following the Brazilian trend of economic growth experienced in the first decade of the 21st century. In the analyzed period, there was a significant increase in all the indicators assessed. However, it is worth noting the existence of disparities within the same region, with some municipalities showing a high rate of increase in income and employment, while others have reached medium and low growth peaks. It is worth mentioning that the improvement in quality, especially in terms of income and employment, ended up directly influencing the improvement of the population's quality of life.

Research on 5G related technologies under the new generation of information technology

At present, 5G refers to a vital direction for evolving and upgrading new generations of information technology, and the Industrial Internet critically supports the fourth industrial revolution. 5G has acted as a novel driving force to lead the innovation and stimulate the novel types of information. From a technical perspective, in the 5G field, ultra-low-loss high-reliability copper-clad laminate materials employed in 5G high-speed communications (56Gbps, 112Gbps), 5G metamaterials and low-loss high-performance RF technology, and 5G low-loss magnetoelectric functions. For materials and devices, multi-module integrated printed circuits for 5G communication base stations, manufacturing of 5G communication optoelectronic integrated cables, and multi-channel high linearity and large dynamic range RF optical transceiver integrated modules in terms of 5G mobile communication will show critical significance, as well as in smart agriculture application and demonstration. From an application perspective, China has made it clear that it will start 5G commercial use in 2020, and has issued 5G licenses ahead of this year, which is also leading in the world. 5G fully complies with the future trends of human progress, social development and economic growth. Inevitably, its large-scale applications will be achieved and will expand to a wide range of industries and fields, extended to all aspects of the economy and society, alter human consumption patterns, and transform human production, which can provide a powerful means for the high-quality development and governance of society.

Economic growth as an underlying probable systemic driver for childhood obesity in South Africa: A Joinpoint regression and ecological analysis over 10 years.

Childhood obesity has become a global public health problem and is a known risk factor for type 2 diabetes, cardiovascular disease, hypertension, stroke, myocardial infarction and various cancers in later adulthood.Associations between adult obesity and economic growth, technological changes, socioeconomic status and economic inequities have been reported, but limited data are available for children and adolescents in countries that are undergoing an epidemiological health transition exhibiting both under- and overnutrition. To demonstrate childhood obesity trends and explore their associations with economic growth in South Africa (SA). This was a retrospective review and analysis of obesity and economic growth trends in SA. Data for obesity levels were obtained from national surveys conducted in SA youths in 2002, 2008 and 2012. Economic growth indicators (EGIs), namely gross domestic product (GDP) per capita, household final consumption expenditure and Gini coefficient, were obtained from the World Bank and IHS Global Insight databases. Obesity trends for 2002 - 2012 are presented by gender and ethnicity. Annual percentage changes (APCs) in obesity prevalence were computed to assess obesity trends using the linear Joinpoint regression. An overall increase in obesity prevalence over time from 3.8% to 6.0% was observed. Females had higher levels across all time points. APCs in both males (7.8%; 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.3 - 15.9; p=0.01) and females (3.1%; 95% CI -14.7 - 24.7; p=0.30) were observed. Among black Africans, coloureds and whites, females had higher obesity levels than males for the three time points. For males, the prevalence of obesity was highest in whites and Asians/Indians, whereas coloureds and blacks had lower levels across all time points. However, the black male population had the highest APC increase (9.4%; 95% CI -23.0 - 55.3; p=0.20). The prevalence of obesity was positively and inversely associated with GDP per capita and the Gini coefficient, respectively. An increase in childhood and adolescent obesity over time was observed, while trend associations between obesity and EGIs exist.

EXTERNAL ENVIRONMENT OF REALIZATION OF ENTREPRENEURIAL POTENTIAL OF ENTERPRISE

The article examines the external environment for the realization of the entrepreneurial potential of the enterprise. Factors influencing the external environment, which include relations with business partners, competition of entrepreneurs, relations with government agencies, relations with tax authorities, relations with the media, relations with financial authorities, investors, socio-demographic, cultural, political, scientific -technological, economic and legal factors. It is proposed to divide all the selected factors into two groups depending on the method of influencing the realization of entrepreneurial potential, in particular to identify factors of direct influence that directly affect the level and degree of effectiveness of entrepreneurial potential and factors of indirect influence – factors that mostly do not risk, but contribute to its change. The peculiarities of the influence of each selected factor substantiated. According to the level of influence on the stability of the production system, it is proposed to distinguish the following groups of environmental factors: external socio-political conditions (changes in the political system); geographical factors (remoteness of markets, increasing the gap between the loads on the management system and its capabilities); industry factors (strategic surprises, loss of control over the external environment of the enterprise, the influence of society and political forces on the market behavior of the enterprise, limited growth, limited resources); personnel factors (changes in human resources in the labor market, the emergence of new methods of justification and strategic decision-making). The most common driving forces influencing entrepreneurial potential proposed, which include changes in long-term trends in economic growth, changes in consumer composition and product use, product updates, technological changes, marketing innovations, changes in public policy and economic regulation, entry into industry or exit from it of large enterprises.

A spatial analysis of how growth and inequality affect poverty in Brazil

Abstract This research seeks to analyze the impacts of economic growth and income inequality on Brazilian states’ urban and rural poverty, considering the effects of the initial levels of development and inequality. The elasticities of income and inequality of poverty were calculated through a dynamic spatial panel, using an adaptation of the approach developed by Kalwij and Verschoor (2004), and data from 2004 to 2014. Incorporating the spatial factor allows us to capture the effects of the geographical location on local poverty. The results suggest that a poverty reduction occurs more intensely when associated with reductions in the inequality levels. Income elasticities were greater (in absolute terms) in rural areas, while the inequality elasticities were greater in the urban area estimates. The growing trend of the inequality elasticity and the decreasing trend of the income elasticity suggest a positive trend of economic growth and a negative trend of poverty. Likewise, if the reduction in inequality shows a negative trend, the absolute value of poverty will decrease. Thus, a public policy to combat poverty through economic growth or reducing inequalities applied to the urban or rural environment would obtain more efficient results if applied in the long term.

Constructing a Financial Conditions Index for Emerging and Developing Countries: A Static Panel Data Approach

This study employs the basic panel data framework to develop a financial conditions index for six emerging and developing countries and estimate its impact on both economic growth and inflationary trend. The countries are Brazil, Malaysia, Mexico, Nigeria, Pakistan and South Africa, while the selected financial variables are treasury bills rate, real effective interest rate, interest rate spread, credit to private sector ratio to nominal GDP and market capitalization ratio to nominal GDP. Using annual data from 2010 to 2010, our findings indicate that real effective exchange rate is the most significant variable in the constructed financial conditions index, followed by credit to private sector, while treasury bills rate, interest rate spread and market capitalization play an insignificant role in the index. Our evidence also indicates that the constructed financial conditions index has a highly significant explanatory power for economic growth, while it contains little information for future inflationary trend. We, therefore, argue that adopting policies that focuses more on exchange rate and financial deepening would accelerate economic growth process in emerging and developing countries.

Cointegration Analysis of Tourism Sector, Inflation, Interest Rate and Economic Growth in a Special Autonomy Region of Aceh Province, Indonesia

This study is aimed at examining the cointegration relationship of tourism spending, inflation, interest rate, and economic growth. In addition, the correction measure is conducted to measure the tourism spending, inflation, interest rate, and economic growth trend are sustainable in Special Autonomy Province of Aceh, Indonesia between 1990 - 2019. Data from Indonesian Statistics Agency and Central Bank of Indonesia was used in this study. Johansen integration test figures out long run equilibrium of the analysed variables. Augmented Dickey Fuller test figures out that all variables are stationary at first difference. The result provides the evidence that there is one cointegrating relationship maintained. The result shows the long-term relationship of economic growth, tourism spending, inflation, and interest rate, where the null hypothesis is rejected with a statistical trace, and one vector equation co-integrates with the Max-Eigen statistical. This study recommends that policymakers should maintain low rate of inflation and constant level of interest rate.

Rural Economic Development Based on Shift-Share Analysis in a Developing Country: A Case Study in Heilongjiang Province, China

Identification of local priorities within each potential sector and implementation of a targeted development policy would definitely accelerate rural economic growth. In this sense, it is useful to examine each region’s industrial structural evolution compared to the whole economy and aggregate industries. Shift-share analysis has been confirmed as a useful method to measure regional economic differences and analyze the contribution of industrial structure. This paper selects five representative counties in Heilongjiang province and applies shift-share decomposition to analyze the change in rural economic development from 2000 to 2018. The change of economic growth in each selected county is decomposed into three components: national growth effect, industrial structure effect, and competitive effect, taking the national level as the reference. The results showed the following: (1) the trend of rural economic growth fluctuated greatly for nearly 20 years, distinguished by a mismatch of industrial structure with competitiveness for the selected counties; rural economies with an inappropriate industrial structure did not experience strong growth, despite high competitive potential. (2) The low-end agricultural structure and secondary industry structure led to the loss of each competitive effect; the tertiary industry structure based on economic structure servitization was rational, but the competitive effect did not work out. (3) Finally, this paper provided differentiated suggestions in accordance with local resources and priorities of the selected counties, so as to avoid excessive convergence and the lack of characteristics in industrial structure in rural transformation.

АНАЛИЗ СЕКТОРА РОЗНИЧНОГО КРЕДИТОВАНИЯ РОССИЙСКИХ БАНКОВ В ПЕРИОД ПАНДЕМИИ В 2020 ГОДУ

Lending to the population is an essential part of the country’s economic system, its development in the global financial market. Due to the steady downward trend in economic growth and real incomes of the population, the spread of the coronavirus pandemic in the Russian Federation in 2020, the issue of fulfillment by the borrowers their obligations to banks became relevant. Many consumers of credit services were unable to fulfill their obligations in full and in due time, which led commercial banks to the most significant risk – credit one. The study considers the main aspects of the functioning of the Russian consumer lending market in the context of the lockdown of the global economy, analyzes the factors, which determined both the growth and contraction of the market under the pandemic influence. The study assessed the dynamic changes in key indicators determining the state of this economic sector in 2020. The authors analyzed the dynamics of granting retail credits and the dynamics of overdue debt. The paper considered the level of the debt burden of the population and the indicators of personal credit rating of borrowers – the main factors influencing the favorable decision on loan granting. Based on the study results, the authors conclude that the pandemic period did not cause severe damage to the retail lending sector. As the main trends of the current year, the study highlights toughening of the requirements on the part of commercial banks to borrowers, an increase in interest rates on credit products, and the improvement of payment discipline in the regions.

江苏沿海滩涂围垦与社会经济发展的耦合关系

沿海滩涂湿地是脆弱的生态敏感区，滩涂围垦是沿海国家和地区拓展土地资源的重要方式之一。近年，沿海地区快速城市化下的滩涂围垦导致了沿海湿地生态系统退化等一系列环境问题。基于环境库兹涅茨曲线（Environmental Kuznets Curve，EKC）模型，以江苏北部沿海湿地为研究区，结合遥感影像和社会经济数据，刻画滩涂围垦过程、强度及社会经济发展过程，揭示近40年江苏沿海滩涂围垦主要类型、阶段性变化特征，阐述滩涂围垦与社会经济发展的耦合关系。研究结果显示，养殖水体扩张是近40年江苏滩涂围垦利用的主要方式；相比养殖水体聚集发展的盐城市，以启东为典型代表的南通市经历了相对较完整的养殖水体的滩涂围垦过程，其养殖水体面积与区域渔业产值存在指数关系，即当人均地区产值达到约9.55万元时，区域渔业产值的增长不再以通过围垦增加养殖水体面积为主要途径；从江苏沿海滩涂围垦来看，滩涂围垦与社会经济发展之间存在典型倒U型曲线关系。苏北滩涂围垦可分为3个阶段，初期阶段（1980-2005年），滩涂围垦随着经济发展而急剧增加；中期（2005-2014年），当人均GDP约为3.64×10⁴元时滩涂围垦速度达最大；后期（2014-2018年），滩涂围垦随着经济发展呈现下降趋势。3个阶段中，单位滩涂围垦面积与人均GDP增长关系由4.11元/km²，17.08元/km²增加至60.77元/km²，呈显著增加的趋势。经济发展，农业和农村经济改革以及国家和地方各级政策均对滩涂围垦具有重要影响。严格的国家环境保护政策将是有效控制滩涂围垦、保护生态环境的重要手段。;Tidal flat wetland is one of the most sensitive and fragile ecosystems in the world, and tidal flat reclamation plays an essential role for coastal countries or regions to expand land. In recent years, with rapid urbanization, tidal flat reclamation in coastal areas has led to a series of environmental problems such as wetland ecosystem degradation. Taking coastal wetlands in northern Jiangsu as a research area, based on the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) model, this study attempted to characterize the process of tidal flat reclamation and socio-economic development, and reveal the phase of reclamation over the past 40 years, and explain the coupling relationship between tidal flat reclamation and social economic development. The results showed that the expansion of aquaculture water has been the main characteristics of reclamation in Jiangsu tidal flats in the past 40 years. Compared with Yancheng City, where aquaculture water bodies are clustered developing, Nantong City, which is represented by Qidong, has experienced a relatively complete tidal flat reclamation process for aquaculture water bodies. An exponential relationship was observed between the area of aquaculture water bodies and the regional fishery output value in Qidong, that is, when the per capita regional output value reached approximately 95,500 Yuan, the increase of regional fishery output value no longer depended on increasing the aquaculture water area through reclamation. There was a typical inverted U curve relationship between tidal flat reclamation and economic development in north Jiangsu coastal area in the past 40 years. The process of reclamation in north Jiangsu coastal area can be divided into three phases. In the early phase (1980-2005), the reclamation increased sharply with economic growth. In the middle phase (2005-2014), the increasing trends of reclamation and economic growth continued, with a turning point appeared, when the per capita GDP was about 3.64×10⁴ Yuan, and the maximum reclamation appeared with the speed up to 146.34 km²/a. In the late phase (2014-2018), tidal flat reclamation showed a downward trend while the economy still increasing. In the three stages, the relationship between reclamation and per capita GDP growth increased from 4.11 Yuan/km² and 17.08 Yuan/km² to 60.77 Yuan/km², showing a significant growing trend. Economic development, agricultural and rural economic reforms, and national and local policies make important impacts on tidal flat reclamation. The strictly national environmental protection policies would be of great significance to effectively control tidal flat reclamation and protect the coastal ecological environment.

Examining the Impact of Sustainable Energy on the Economy: Panel Evidence from ASEAN

Among the fast-developing economies in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), a significant trend can be observed towards sustainable energy objectives. Although there is a strong trend of social and economic growth in the ASEAN region, the theoretical and empirical significance of sustainable energy is yet to be explored. This study aims to analyse the impact of sustainable energy on the economies of three countries – Indonesia, Malaysia, and Thailand – using yearly observations from the years 2000 to 2019. Several dynamics of sustainable energy are investigated as explanatory variables, while economic trends are explored through GDP growth, financial development, and patent applications. For the purposes of data analysis, descriptive statistics, correlation matrices and fixed and random effect panel models are applied. The study findings of the correlational matrix indicate that there is no higher correlation among the study variables. The results of the panel models provide evidence that carbon emissions have an adverse impact on GDP growth, while the proportion of renewable energy out of total energy positively impacts the growth dynamic. Additionally, carbon emissions adversely impact financial development in all three ASEAN economies. Lastly, electricity prices and carbon emissions are observed to have an adverse effect on patent applications. However, this study has three major limitations, as it fails to apply advanced panel regression models like GMM, only considers three economies out of the total sample of the ASEAN region, and lacks comparative analyses between countries. Future studies are highly recommended to address these limitations.

The role of industrial parks in ensuring sustainable development of the region

Sustainable development of regions is a priority direction of state policy. The creation and development of industrial infrastructure within the region becomes one of the recent trends aimed at obtaining the highest results in indicators of sustainable development. The formation of industrial parks as drivers of economic growth contributes to the formation of an integral production system within the region aimed both at ensuring the economic security of the region and at accelerating its development. In order to assess the role of industrial parks in achieving sustainable development goals (SDG) at the regional level, the authors correlated the SDG and the contribution of industrial parks to their achievement. The authors proposed indicators of the impact of industrial parks on the sustainable development of the region based on a theory review of regional sustainable development and indicators of its assessment. Evaluation of development indicators of industrial parks in the Russian Federation made it possible to determine the trends of economic growth in the region with an increase in investment in industrial parks.

Ways of intensification of economic growth and activation of investment activities in order to ensure the economic security of the Russian Federation

Macroeconomic dynamics is in the focus of attention of the scientific community due to the fact that it characterizes the key trends in the development of the national economy. The basic indicator in the system of national accounts is the gross domestic product (GDP), which in general form is the aggregate value of all goods and services produced within the national economy. GDP is widely used in the analysis of economic growth trends. Economic growth, creating conditions for it – the most important goal of economic development, both within the framework of ensuring the economic security of the entire national economy and at the level of an individual enterprise. Nowadays, economic development is characterized by an accelerated rate of scientific and technological progress: new technologies and approaches are being created that have higher efficiency. From a microeconomic point of view, the main factors of production are labor, capital and information. Fixed capital investments (buildings, structures, machinery and equipment) are a key instrument for renewing fixed assets. Investment activity is the process of renewing the capital of an enterprise as a result of modernizing its technical and technological base, which ensures its economic security. Investments, along with government spending, are key drivers of economic growth. As a result, we can confidently assert the high importance of investment activities, both throughout the country and at the level of individual economic entities, as well as their economic independence. The paper shows the ways to intensify economic growth and intensify investment activities in order to ensure the economic security of the Russian Federation.

Trusted land: land deals, climate vulnerability and adaptation in Northern Mozambique

ABSTRACT The surge of private land concessions in Sub-Saharan Africa carries the potential to push local populations to marginal areas, aggravating their climate vulnerability. This paper analyses the effects of resettlement on the vulnerability of relocated rural communities in Mozambique, from the perspective of environmental justice. The research seeks to understand how land concessions interfere with autonomous processes of adaptation that are not recognised within land distribution policies. The findings draw on a qualitative field research in two locations, in the provinces of Nampula and Cabo Delgado, where levels of poverty have persisted despite national trends of economic growth. The paper highlights how climate events inflluence perceptions of fairness amongst resettled populations, and how resettlements constrain their adaptative capabilities. The findings raise concern that misrecognition of adaptation practices can exacerbate the vulnerability of households to environmental change and to food insecurity, thereby hindering the fulfilment of the Sustainable Development Goals, especially SDG1 (No Poverty), SDG10 (Reduced Inequalities) and SDG13 (Climate Action). The author argues for the centrality of recognition within environmental justice, while contributing recommendations to ensure that land deals fulfil principles of distributional and procedural justice, which take into consideration the compound pressures of land use changes and climate vulnerability.

Review of Effects of Internal and External Factors on Selection of Financing Strategies by New Technology Ventures

New technology ventures currently play a key role in the economic performance of countries. Financing methods are among strategic issues facing entrepreneurs for launching a business, which must be reviewed by researchers and policymakers of finance and investment; thereby new technology ventures are of importance in the economic growth trend and sustainable development. This study is aimed at reviewing the effects of internal and external factors on the selection of financing strategies by new technology ventures. Statistical society of the present research includes start-up companies. Data collection method includes library research and field research. Descriptive-practical research method and data analysis tools, Delphi techniques and experts' panel, and regression analysis. Firstly, upon designing the preliminary questionnaire and distribution thereof among academic experts and new technology ventures, totaling 29, main and secondary elements were extracted based on the information received from the experts. Then, at the next stage, for the explanation of the designed model, the final questionnaire of research, incl. general and specialized questions are prepared and drawn up, and upon distribution of the final questionnaire among the statistical sample, comprising start-up companies, the stated questionnaire was distributed among 384 companies. Research results indicate a positive and significant effect of internal variables of companies concerning the role of intermediary variables on traditional and new financing methods. Notably, external variables of companies have a significant effect on traditional and new financing methods through intermediary variables. These results indicate the importance of internal and external factors of companies on the determination of financing strategy of start-up companies in Iran.

Cross-Border M&A and Currency Returns

We uncover a novel source of currency return predictability stemming from cross-border merger and acquisition (M&A) activity: abnormally large M&A inflows lead exchange rate appreciations, while depreciations follow unusually large M&A outflows. We show that a simple cross-sectional currency strategy exploiting this predictability generates a Sharpe ratio of over 0.70 and is orthogonal to existing currency strategies. The portfolio weights are found to coincide with local extremes in macroeconomic fundamentals: countries experiencing the largest abnormal M&A outflows are growing most above their economic growth trend - a pattern that reverses following portfolio formation - while the opposite reversal in macroeconomic fundamentals is observed in countries experiencing unusually large M&A inflows.

ІМПЕРАТИВИ СТАЛОГО РОЗВИТКУ ПРОМИСЛОВИХ ПІДПРИЄМСТВ ЗАЛІЗНИЧНОГО ТРАНСПОРТУ ЯК ОСНОВА ІНТЕНСИФІКАЦІЇ УПРАВЛІННЯ ЇХ ЕКОНОМІЧНОЮ ПОВЕДІНКОЮ В УМОВАХ НЕОІНДУСТРІАЛЬНОЇ МОДЕРНІЗАЦІЇ

The research findings have revealed that in modern realia, most of industrial enterprises of railway transport are facing a phase of stagnation through a range of factors, the most essential of them are: low investment level, lack of sustainable economic growth trends as well as ineffective resource allocation. It is argued that to address the above issues and boost scientific, technological and socioeconomic growth, there is a critical need to build a methodological framework for assessing factors and possibilities of overcoming stagnation and transitioning to sustainable development by implementing intensification of economic behavior management in the context of neoindustrial modernization. The imperative for sustainable scientific, technological and socioeconomic development of industrial enterprises of railway transport offers new challenges and triggers a design of a new conceptual framework to select strategic development trajectories and identify critical factors for long-term crisis recovery – all that supports the relevance of the research. To attain the goals set, the study has identified measures to address the issues of sustainable scientific, technological and socioeconomic development of industrial enterprises of railway transport along with considering the stages in the process of achieving the research agenda. The findings also explore the stages of the sustainable development concept for railway transport enterprises and present economic models of sustainable development of industrial enterprises of railway transport to intensify enterprise economic behavior management in the context of neoindustrial modernization.

Beyond continuationism: climate change, economic growth, and the future of world (dis)order

An apocalyptic zeitgeist infuses global life, yet this is only minimally reflected in International Relations (IR) debates about the future of world order and implications of climate change. Instead, most approaches within these literatures follow what I call a “continuationist” bias, which assumes that past trends of economic growth and inter-capitalist competition will continue indefinitely into the future. I identify three key reasons for this assumption: 1) a lack of engagement with evidence that meeting the Paris Agreement targets is incompatible with continuous economic growth; 2) an underestimation of the possibility that failure to meet these targets will unleash irreversible tipping points in the earth system, and 3) limited consideration of the ways climate change will converge with economic stagnation, financial instability, and food system vulnerabilities to intensify systemic risks to the global economy in the near-term and especially later this century. I argue that IR scholars should therefore explore the potential for ‘post-growth’ world orders to stabilize the climate system, consider how world order may adapt to a three or four degree world if Paris Agreement targets are exceeded, and investigate the possible dynamics of global ‘collapse’ in case runaway climate change overwhelms collective adaptation capacities during this century.

Economic growth and population transition in China and India 1990–2018

This paper analyses the trend in economic growth and population transition in China and India during 1990–2018 through a comparative perspective. The analysis follows a decomposition framework which argues that economic growth has a pure demographic component and a pure economic component and it is the latter which actually contributes to improving the standard of living. The analysis reveals that most of the economic growth in China during 1990–2018 has contributed to improving the standard of living but a substantial proportion of economic growth in India has been the result of the demographic factors that contributed little to improve the quality of life of the people. China needs to explore possibilities of productive utilisation of the old people to sustain economic growth whereas India requires reinvigorating the economic system and accelerating population transition to improve the quality of life of its people. The paper concludes that in the context of human well-being, economic growth in India has been less spectacular than that in China.