Rural Economic Development Based on Shift-Share Analysis in a Developing Country: A Case Study in Heilongjiang Province, China

Donghui Lv,Huiying Gao,Yu Zhang

doi:10.3390/su13041969

Donghui Lv, Huiying Gao + Show 1 more

Open Access

https://doi.org/10.3390/su13041969

Copy DOI

Abstract

Identification of local priorities within each potential sector and implementation of a targeted development policy would definitely accelerate rural economic growth. In this sense, it is useful to examine each region’s industrial structural evolution compared to the whole economy and aggregate industries. Shift-share analysis has been confirmed as a useful method to measure regional economic differences and analyze the contribution of industrial structure. This paper selects five representative counties in Heilongjiang province and applies shift-share decomposition to analyze the change in rural economic development from 2000 to 2018. The change of economic growth in each selected county is decomposed into three components: national growth effect, industrial structure effect, and competitive effect, taking the national level as the reference. The results showed the following: (1) the trend of rural economic growth fluctuated greatly for nearly 20 years, distinguished by a mismatch of industrial structure with competitiveness for the selected counties; rural economies with an inappropriate industrial structure did not experience strong growth, despite high competitive potential. (2) The low-end agricultural structure and secondary industry structure led to the loss of each competitive effect; the tertiary industry structure based on economic structure servitization was rational, but the competitive effect did not work out. (3) Finally, this paper provided differentiated suggestions in accordance with local resources and priorities of the selected counties, so as to avoid excessive convergence and the lack of characteristics in industrial structure in rural transformation.

Highlights

In the 21st century, China is facing the pressure of sustainable agricultural development, changes in consumer demand, and the challenges of globalization [1,2]
A 2017 Chinese government report proposed a strategy of rural revitalization, emphasizing the priority given to the development of agriculture and rural areas
Considering its clarity and simplicity of the shift-share method especially its analysis advantages of regional economic differences, this paper examines the characteristics of industrial change at county-level in Heilongjiang province from 2000 to 2018, tries to find out the competitive or weak sectors compared to the national level, and provides suggestions for differentiated rural policy-making

Summary

Introduction

In the 21st century, China is facing the pressure of sustainable agricultural development, changes in consumer demand, and the challenges of globalization [1,2]. China’s grain production has been stable at more than 600 million tons since 2013, despite being subject to the constraints of decreasing high-quality farmland, lack of agricultural water, and a shortage of working-age population. These constraints have been exacerbated by smallholder operation mode, aging production facilities, climate change, and multiple disasters [4]. In this context, a 2017 Chinese government report proposed a strategy of rural revitalization, emphasizing the priority given to the development of agriculture and rural areas.

Methods

Results

Conclusion