Economic Growth In Ukraine Research Articles

Impact of public-private partnership assets on economic growth in Ukraine

Impact of public-private partnership assets on economic growth in Ukraine

Tax policy and activation of internal factors of economic growth: EU experience for Ukraine

The state policy of Ukraine aims to promote sustainable economic growth and improve its quality through economic activity, particularly through the optimization of the tax system, which is particularly relevant both during the period of martial law in Ukraine and the post-war recovery. The purpose of the study is to assess the formation and implementation of the state tax policy to activate the internal factors of economic growth in Ukraine under martial law. The study of tax policy in Ukraine and EU countries has shown that the EU countries are characterized by a consistent and transparent tax policy that stimulates investment, innovation, and entrepreneurship to activate internal factors of economic growth. The paper uses fiscal analysis based on the Cobb-Douglas production-institutional function; its main concept is the mutual location of the Laffer points of the first and second types and the actual level of the tax burden. The results show a noticeable adjustment of the real fiscal climate in Ukraine in line with changes in threshold fiscal standards. Considering martial law in Ukraine and the need for the state’s ability to post-war recovery, the study suggests changing the rates of specific taxes, after which it is necessary to make a transition from private fiscal instruments with inherent rate values to the aggregate fiscal burden.

THE IMPACT OF FOREIGN INVESTMENT ON UKRAINE'S COMPETITIVENESS AFTER THE WAR

The purpose of the paper is to critically analyse and understand how foreign investment can affect and potentially improve Ukraine's competitiveness in the global market after the war. Methodology. This study aims to analyse the various aspects and dimensions of foreign investment, in particular direct investment flows, and their impact on key sectors of the economy in Ukraine in the post-war period. In addition, it attempts to assess the challenges and opportunities that foreign investment creates in the context of rebuilding and modernising Ukraine's infrastructure, enhancing its technological and innovation potential, and strengthening its labour force and industrial base. The survey results showed that foreign investment has had a significant positive impact on Ukraine's economic growth in the post-war period, especially in the restoration of key industries and infrastructure. FDI plays an important role in attracting advanced technologies and expertise to Ukraine, thereby increasing its competitiveness. The document emphasises the need for policy reforms to create a more favourable investment climate, including improved legal protection for investors, anti-corruption measures and increased efficiency of the bureaucracy. The results of the study point to the existing challenges in attracting foreign investment, such as political instability, infrastructure deficit and unclear investment legislation. Finally, the publication forecasts the long-term impact of foreign investment on economic stability and growth trajectory in Ukraine, which leads to cautiously optimistic conclusions. Practical implications. The research aims to provide insights and recommendations on how Ukraine can effectively use foreign investment to rebuild its economy, increase its global competitiveness and ensure long-term sustainable development in the post-war period. The SWOT analysis in this article helps to identify strategic areas for improvement and capitalisation. It can help them formulate policies to improve the investment climate by focusing on strengthening strengths, mitigating weaknesses, seizing opportunities and protecting against threats. Value/Originality. The value and originality of the paper lies in its comprehensive and detailed study of how foreign investment can be a key factor in reforming and reviving Ukraine's economy after the war. The paper specifically examines the post-war economic landscape of Ukraine, a topic that has not been widely studied. It provides a fresh perspective on the challenges and opportunities for a country recovering from war.

Diversification of export activities: essence, purpose and state in Ukraine

Introduction. Export diversification is an essential tool for accelerating economic growth in developing countries. After all, these countries' exports are concentrated on raw materials and agricultural products, which are primarily sensitive to external shocks. By diversifying their exports, countries can reduce their vulnerability to fluctuations in foreign markets, including changes in demand, prices and terms of trade. This will stabilise the country's export earnings, ensure uninterrupted financing of imports and the development of various sectors of the national economy. In addition, diversifying export activities contributes to the structural transformation of the national economy and the country's innovative development. The purpose of the paper is to reveal the essence and functional purpose of export diversification in ensuring the country's economic development. The objective will be achieved by analysing the state of diversification of Ukraine's exports of goods and studying its relationship with the country's economic development. Results. Based on the analysis of changes in Ukraine's export commodity structure, the paper shows that in 2014-2023, there was a deepening of specialisation in Ukraine's exports of raw materials, food and agricultural products. At the same time, the share of medium and highly processed goods in Ukraine's export structure has decreased significantly. These trends are confirmed by the relatively high degree of specialisation of Ukrainian exports of goods over the period considered, as calculated by the normalised Herfindahl-Hirschman index. It is noted that the deepening concentration of Ukrainian exports of raw materials, food and agricultural products has been accompanied by slow growth or decline in GDP per capita. This confirms the hypothesis that there is a correlation between the diversification of export activities and a country's economic development level. Conclusions. According to the study's results, one strategy for Ukraine's economic growth under current conditions should be to diversify export activities and develop trade in goods with a medium and high degree of processing.

International Remittances, Human Resources Outflow & Economic Growth: Dynamic Regression Models

The article presents an econometric analysis of the impact and elasticity of human resources outflow and remittance with economic growth in Ukraine. It is proved that remittance (1) has a direct relationship with economic activity rate, (2) a cyclical and multiplicative relationship with the inflationary process, and (3) an indirect effect on capital investment. It has been established that migration favorably affects the financial well-being of households and is an effective measure for accumulating investment capital and savings. The trigger for economic growth in the vector of ‘migration – remittance’ is the development of the migration capital market by increasing the investment capacity of remittance’, ensuring the target remittance orientation to the small and medium-sized business sector, guaranteeing market stability (security of remittance) and developing financial inclusion.

Social destruction of the most vulnerable categories of citizens in Ukraine

The research was aimed at determining how the rights of minors and individuals caring for children under the age of three are protected by the state.
 The type of guaranteed state allowance known as childbirth assistance will be thoroughly examined in detail.
 Due to the fact that assistance for childcare until the child reaches the age of three was excluded according to the Law of Ukraine “On Prevention of Financial Catastrophe and Creation of Preconditions for Economic Growth in Ukraine” adopted in 2014, it was replaced by childbirth assistance.
 This Law was approved and signed by 253 individuals and 29 committees of the Supreme Council of Ukraine. The law was recognized as constitutional according to the decision of the Constitutional Court of Ukraine, which was agreed by 15 judges. In connection with this, the Constitution of Ukraine and Article 442, Part 1 of the Criminal Code of Ukraine regarding genocide were violated. It involves intentional actions aimed at the complete or partial destruction of any national, ethnic, racial, or religious group by creating living conditions for the group designed for its complete or partial physical destruction, reducing childbirth, or preventing it within such a group. In the explanatory note to this Law, the Minister of Finance of Ukraine noted that the establishment of a single amount of the childbirth allowance and the cancellation of the childcare allowance for children up to 3 years old will save about 3.5 billion hryvnias, which will be directed towards social protection of the most vulnerable categories of citizens.
 But after adoption of this law, aid payments are no longer regulated by the minimum subsistence level, which increases every year. Inflation and annual increases in prices for food and utilities are ignored. Payments become fixed. Part 3 of Article 46 of the Constitution of Ukraine is violated, which states that types of social benefits and assistance, which are the main source of existence, should ensure a standard of living not lower than the subsistence minimum established by law. The adoption of this law creates the conditions for social destruction of the nation as a whole, the genocide of the population.
 Therefore, this study will thoroughly analyze who exactly signed this law and what consequences it has already brought to society.

Analysis and assessment of the quality of economic growth in Ukraine based on international ratings.

To confront the multidimensional challenges and crises of the 21st Century and to bring about transformative changes in the economy, policymakers need a tool that assesses the quality of economic growth in terms of both factors affecting productivity and consequences for people’s livelihoods and the environment. It is recognized that GDP alone is not sufficient to measure progress towards socially and economically inclusive, equitable and sustainable development. On behalf of the UN Secretary General, studies “beyond GDP” are carried out, aimed at updating and supplementing the UN System of National Accounts – 2008. There is also an update of the international organizations approaches to conduct rating studies of the countries based on balanced systems of indicators of well-being and progress, inclusive and sustainable development. The analysis of the results of such studies made it possible to conclude that in the conditions of worsening systemic risks, the assessment of the quality of economic growth in the country requires a comprehensive multidimensional system of indicators. It should cover, in addition to the volume of GDP per capita and the productivity factors, indicators of the quality of human capital, environmental sustainability, the quality of the management system, in particular, the regulatory and legal framework that forms the long-term development trajectory, the business environment and infrastructure, thereby influencing innovativeness, inclusiveness and resilience of society to shocks and threats. To assess the quality of economic growth in Ukraine, an analysis of the country’s position based on indicators of the economic policy impact on innovativeness, inclusiveness, stability and sustainability was carried out using the materials of the Future of Growth Report 2024 and the Sustainable Competitiveness Report 2023. Drivers and obstacles for the balanced development of Ukraine’s economy are identified, especially the low management capacity for changes towards inclusiveness, stability and sustainability. Proposals have been made to expand the range of indicators for evaluating the innovativeness and sustainability of economic growth in Ukraine, in particular for evaluating the results of the implementation of the Strategy for the Development of Innovation Activity for the period until 2030.

ПЕРСПЕКТИВИ ЕКОНОМІЧНОГО РОЗВИТКУ УКРАЇНИ У ПОЛІТЕКОНОМІЧНОМУ АСПЕКТІ

The problem of the lack of economic growth in Ukraine which is considered through the effect on the economy of the political-economic law on the adequacy of production relations to the level and nature of productive forces is identified. In the course of the analysis of the state of productive forces and industrial relations, it was concluded that the industrial relations of Ukraine contain a rudiment of the economic system of the Middle Ages, which consists in a deep introduction of the institution of oligarchs into the economy. The author outlines the reasons for the emergence of oligarchic capitalism in Ukraine, in which oligarchs have the opportunity to shape public opinion and, thus, influence the composition of the legislative power, which adopts state laws beneficial to them. It is emphasized that industrial relations in Ukraine are currently lagging behind in their development, which, in turn, slows down the development of productive forces and society as a whole. The author has clearly defined that only with the change of outdated industrial relations is it possible to enter a new path of economic development. On the other hand, the productive forces of Ukraine, embodied in the labor force, fully correspond to the current level of development of the world's productive forces. This is the industrial relations lagging in the country from the character of productive forces. The contradiction between them inevitably leads to the reform of industrial relations. However, this should happen not in a revolutionary way, but in an evolutionary way in the form of a political struggle. It is quite difficult to carry out such an evolution, since the institution of oligarchs has informally appropriated all political and economic power. In addition to the role of oligarchs in the economic life of the country, the author considered a number of other elements of industrial relations that oppose the economic development of Ukraine. But in terms of their influence, they can be classified as the second level after the effect of the political-economic law. The article outlines ways of forming industrial relations adequate to the productive forces of modern Ukraine and their impact on economic development. It is noted that within the framework of existing industrial relations, the growth of public production volumes is possible, but its pace will be several times lower than potentially possible.

Prospects of e-business income growth in Ukraine in conditions of instability

The article examines the theoretical and practical aspects of electronic business evolution in the system of selling products, goods, and services. It is proved in the article that e-business is a prerequisite for economic growth in Ukraine in the context of ongoing military operations despite the reduction in consumption of some goods and services. It is shown that due to the adaptation of sales mechanisms a number of advantages in ebusiness are formed in comparison with traditional methods of organizing trade and services. It is proved that the formation of new mechanisms for selling goods and rendering services provides alternative sources of economic growth. The article demonstrates that Ukraine underwent a military economic correction, during which business was initially disoriented, but within two years it began to recover to a level that would ensure a basic level of business activity for all operating enterprises. The resumption of business activity calls for the use of modern and special forms and methods of organizing e-business, which will serve to meet the growing demand of enterprises for the supply of components, as well as for various information, marketing, financial, educational and other services. Business also needs new methods of protecting and ensuring stable operations by both government agencies and IT companies, which themselves are a form of e-business. The article proves that one of the factors of enterprise revenue growth is the intensification of e-business, in particular by expanding to other places for distributing goods and services. In modern conditions, the demand from the public and enterprises for goods and services, which are often inaccessible due to infrastructure facilities, is growing again. The e-business forecast shows that this segment will develop rapidly and meet the growing demand for goods and services that are often inaccessible due to the destruction of infrastructure. In the face of threats to e-business, the potential for its development is growing significantly due to the specifics of using infrastructure, payment systems, and marketing systems. Economic growth in the postwar period is closely related to the development of e-business.

Promotion of green economic growth in post-Soviet countries: Role of foreign direct and portfolio investments

Green economic growth ensures the country’s wealth and population well-being with decreasing ecological damages. This strategy requires effective government policy to push economic agents to environmentally friendly behavior and significant financial resources to invest in technological modernization. The study aims to assess whether promotion of green economic growth in post-Soviet countries depends on direct and portfolio investment. The paper develops the index of green economic growth performance considering traditional economic growth, social, and environmental indicators. To determine the contribution of direct and portfolio investments in the promotion of green economic growth performance, regression equations (for the panel of countries as a whole and each country in particular) are developed. All models are supplemented with traditional economic growth control variables (GDP growth, inflation, gross fixed capital formation, trade). The information base is public data from the World Bank for the sample of 13 post-Soviet countries for 2000–2021. It was revealed that Estonia and Latvia have the highest level of green economic growth performance, while Ukraine, Uzbekistan, and Kazakhstan have the lowest. The most effective country (Latvia) uses its green economic growth potential only for 62.33%. Modeling results do not confirm the significance of foreign and portfolio investment contributions in promoting green economic growth in most post-Soviet countries (portfolio investments boost green economic growth in Estonia and Moldova, while foreign direct investments contribute to green economic growth in Ukraine). These results might be explained by a lack of institutional capacity and government efficiency to ensure effective absorption of investments.

Впливи пандемії COVID-19 на стан світової та національних економік

The article analyses the peculiarities of the global pandemic COVID-19 impact and related quarantine restrictions imposed on the economic growth of Ukraine and other countries of the world. The purpose of the study is to determine the negative consequences of such an impact due to the global pandemic COVID-19, as well as to outline the effectiveness of implemented (planned) measures of governments to neutralize the effects of this impact on the economy. Particular attention is paid to: the study of changes in GDP dynamics, the volume of foreign trade, and the level of public debt in different countries of the world in three phases of the pandemic: I-phase (2019–2020), II-phase (2021-2022) and III-phase (second half of 2022, first half of 2023); determining the effectiveness of anti-crisis measures of governments during the global crisis of 2019–2022. The scientific paper notes that the negative factor influencing the quality to the economic growth of the country’s world (during the pandemic) is non-diversification of economies with emerging markets and their dependence on global foreign trade flows. It has been determined that the increase in social spending and the level of debt in developing countries is a threat to their financial security in the future, since the maximum level of public and guaranteed debt in relation to GDP in some countries exceeded the limit of 60% according to the Maastricht criteria.

Цифрова індустріалізація як чинник економічної динаміки

The article shows the impact of digital industrialization on nationally rooted development. Generalized forecast estimates of international organizations regarding economic growth in Ukraine. Attention is focused on the impact of the war with Russia on Ukraine’s economy and possible consequences of this impact. Based on a by-industry analysis of export dynamics, the author shows the growing leading role of the IT sector in promoting this country’s budget revenue. The main indicators of activity, factors promoting and inhibiting the development of the IT sector, and its activities in ensuring the digitalization of the country's economy are comprehensively analyzed. The potential risks of digital industrialization for nationally rooted development are highlighted. The role of the government in promoting digital industrialization is substantiated. Emphasis is placed on the advantages of creating digital innovation hubs for solving complex problems of digital transformation of regions. The author highlights foreign experience of the digital transformation of the economy and examples of its use in Ukraine.

SIMULATION OF THE INFLUENCE OF INVESTMENT AND INNOVATION ACTIVITIES ON ENSURING THE INTERNATIONAL COMPETITIVENESS OF COUNTRIES

The purpose of this work is to study the quality of the innovation-investment component of the international competitiveness of EU countries and Ukraine, to reveal the potential of innovation-investment activity in ensuring the effectiveness of the national economy, as well as to substantiate the priority vectors of leveling external shocks and promoting economic growth in Ukraine. The work evaluates the quality of the innovation and investment component of the international competitiveness of Ukraine and its close neighbors - the countries of the Visegrad Group (Poland, the Czech Republic, Hungary and Slovakia) using econometric analysis; a multifactor economic-mathematical model was built, which determines the strength of the connection between indicators of innovation and investment activity in Ukraine and the main macroeconomic indicator - GDP; the European practice of developing strategic programs to increase the competitiveness of the country's economy was studied; strategic innovation and investment initiatives of Ukraine are substantiated. In addition, the article made a significant theoretical and practical contribution to solving the outlined problems. The results of the study revealed the main problems of the innovation-investment component of Ukraine's international competitiveness, as well as highlighted the potential prospects for its improvement, taking into account advanced European practices.

ASSESSMENT OF THE IMPACT OF TRADE WITH POLAND ON UKRAINE'S ECONOMIC GROWTH

The purpose of the study is to assess the impact of Ukrainian-Polish trade in goods on the economic growth of Ukraine. The tasks of the study include an analysis of the dynamics and structural changes in Ukraine's trade in goods with Poland, an assessment of the impact of the main indicators of the volume of trade with Poland on Ukraine's economic growth, and a study of the relationship between the indicators of Ukraine's economic growth and changes in the volume of exports and imports of the main groups of goods in trade with Poland. In the course of the research, the method of regression analysis was used to determine the influence of the total volume of exports and imports and the product structure of bilateral trade on the economic growth of Ukraine. As a result of the regression analysis, the dependence of Ukraine's economic growth on imports of goods from Poland was revealed, and the impact of changes in the volume of Ukraine's exports of goods on Ukraine's economic growth was statistically insignificant. The study confirmed the dependence of Ukraine's economic growth on changes in the volume of iron ore exports to Poland and imports of cosmetic industry products from Poland. A statistically insignificant influence of exports and imports of other main groups of goods in trade with Poland on Ukraine's economic growth was found. In the period of post-war reconstruction, the deepening of Ukrainian-Polish cooperation in the implementation of joint infrastructure and industrial projects, which provide for the establishment of production of necessary products using materials and components imported from Poland, can become an important component of the economic growth of Ukraine.

The Impact of Open Data on Economic Growth and Development in Ukraine

"Over time, information and knowledge industries are becoming increasingly important for the country’s effective economic development. Therefore, to ensure the quality functioning of most internal processes in countries moving towards a post-industrial economic model, it is essential to increase data openness. Thus, the purpose of this research is to evaluate the impact of information accessibility on the development and economic growth of Ukraine. The main research methods used in the study were analysis, comparison, deduction, induction. The study provides a general overview of the development of open data in Ukraine. It was demonstrated that although the country has a legal framework, it is still not sufficient to ensure the sustainable development of this component. In addition, the general benefits that can be obtained by the state and its economic relations in the event of a further increase in data openness were considered. Thus, the main sectors and their opportunities for using open data in their activities were described. In addition, a positive impact has been demonstrated regarding the components of activities for which the state is responsible, such as healthcare, public transport, education. In addition, the author mentions the role of artificial intelligence in the further development of Ukraine and the possibility of using it to analyse open data. This study provides new knowledge for analysing the impact of public data on economic growth and allows for a better assessment of some of the specifics of Ukraine’s development in general."

STRATEGIC SCENARIOS FOR SUSTAINABLE INDUSTRIAL DEVELOPMENT OF UKRAINE IN THE POST-WAR PERIOD

The purpose of the paper is to develop the most probable scenarios and to determine the strategic directions and effective tools for the Ukrainian industrial recovery, which will ensure the resistance of the economy in the conditions of military challenges. The method of strategic scenarios allows to find out how the industrial development in Ukraine will develop in the course of war and post-war recovery. Methodology. The methods of system analysis and logical modeling were used to describe the transition of the Ukrainian production from the current situation of military crisis to the target one; structural analysis was used to determine the system of indicators characterizing the resistance of the industry. For this purpose, national (State Statistics of Ukraine) and international (World Bank, Eurostat official website) databases characterizing the level and structure of industrial development in the last 5 years were used. The method of calculation takes into account the criteria of changes in indicators: direction (growth/decline occurred); rate of changes based on the cumulative annual growth rate for the period of 5 years. The study was carried out using analytical methods of the influence of trends in the formation of strategic scenarios in unpredictable situations (conditions of wartime uncertainty), to assess changes in the probability of occurrence due to the actual occurrence of one of them, which made it possible to identify trends, justify scenarios and take them into account when analyzing the prospects for industrial development to strengthen the defense capabilities and economic growth of Ukraine. The results of the survey showed that the strategic scenarios for the industrial development of Ukraine will be adjusted as necessary for the post-war industrial recovery in case of a long-term external military threat to preserve the state sovereignty. The achievement of the set strategic goals depends on the driving forces determining the industrial development in Ukraine. As the main indicators characterizing the tendencies of industrial development in Ukraine, the indicators reflecting the efficiency of the use of productive forces have been chosen: indicators of industrial production efficiency; labor productivity; indicators characterizing innovative development; performance indicators of foreign economic activity and investment development. Taking into account the influence of each of the driving forces of industrial development in the conditions of wartime uncertainty, three scenarios of industrial development were developed: a conditionally positive scenario, in which the economic system will gradually stabilize due to the cessation of hostilities and the recovery of production capacities; a conditionally negative scenario, which will be characterized by the disintegration of the economic system, the destruction of energy infrastructure facilities, where negative trends will dominate; a conditionally neutral (basic) scenario, in which the disintegration of the economic system will not reach extreme levels, and industrial production will develop in areas not covered by hostilities. Practical implications. The key problem of restoring economic stability in Ukraine is to create conditions for favorable development of industrial business, which depends on balanced strategic policy decisions. The transformation of industry into an effective force for the revival of the Ukrainian economy in the conditions of the war and post-war period requires a balanced strategic management of the future development, because it is crucial to meet the unprecedented demands of the war on the available resources of the country and to prevent a social, humanitarian, economic, financial, environmental, military crisis. At the same time, traditional methods of indicative planning cannot take into account all factors of wartime uncertainty, therefore, the rationale of future development vectors based on scenario planning makes it possible to create conditions for minimizing threats and realizing potential opportunities. Value/originality. Strategic scenarios provide for better economic recovery planning with long-term national priorities, development strategies of related industries and sectors for ensuring the Ukrainian manufacturing resistance.

Ministry of Defence expenditures impact on economic growth of Ukraine

B a c k g r o u n d . With the start of the second stage of the Russian-Ukrainian war, the Government of Ukraine and its military command faced an objective examination of the results of years of efforts to develop Ukraine's national security and defence sector. At the same time as defence capability was being enhanced, economic performance was on the rise. This led us to test the hypothesis of whether the increased defence capability caused this growth. This study aims to clarify the relationship between military expenditures and economic growth in Ukraine. The object of the study is a consistent and long-term process of economic growth of the state along with an increase in the level of defence capability as a result of military expenditures in the context of financial support from the Ministry of Defence of Ukraine. Methods. Theoretical methods: analysis, synthesis, abstraction, generalisation, induction, deduction, explanation, classification. Empirical methods: hypothesis, observation, experiment, description. Results. This paper defines "military capabilities" and their relationship with military potential. It has been established that the ability to use military potential (military power/strength) is a military capability. Military expenditures are used to develop capabilities in the Ministry of Defence of Ukraine's system. Thus, allocating and redistributing expenditures for the army's needs is financial support. The armed forces' financial support drives the country's economic growth. To establish this fact, the leading indicators of military expenditures in the Ministry of Defence of Ukraine (from now on – MoD) were analysed and the indicator of economic growth – gross domestic product (from now – GDP) from 2012 to 2021. This period is crucial for Ukraine's national security, defence, and economic growth, as the basic principles of state defence policy were established during this time. This motivated us to analyse financial and defence indicators to determine their interrelationship. C o n c l u s i o n s . Two variables were defined as military expenditures and the GDP, where the first variable is independent and the second is dependent. A high correlation between military spending and economic growth in Ukraine was found by constructing a scatter plot, performing the relevant calculations, obtaining the data in an ANOVA table, setting up a regression line, and conducting null hypothesis tests.

Simulation of the impact of foreign direct investment on the Ukraine’s economy in the conditions of post-war reconstruction

The article examines the dynamics of accumulated foreign direct investment in the economy of Ukraine in 2010–2021 and analyzes the reasons for the significant decrease in FDI inflows to the economy of Ukraine, the withdrawal of significant amounts of capital by foreign investors in periods of deepening economic crisis. The structural changes of foreign direct investment in the Ukrainian economy by types of economic activity and by industry for the period 2015–2021 are analyzed. With the help of regression analysis, modeling of the dependence of economic growth of Ukraine on changes in the volume of foreign direct investments was carried out under the condition that the war ends in 2023. To build a linear regression model, data on the GDP of Ukraine, GDP per capita, the volume of accumulated FDI in the economy and their annual revenues, the volume of FDI in the main sectors of the economy in 2010–2021 and the forecast values of these indicators in 2023–2025. The results of the study confirmed the importance of increasing both the total volume of FDI and the volume of investment involved in high-tech industries industry, to restore the economy of Ukraine after the end of the war. Regression analysis made it possible to reveal a direct connection between the economic growth of Ukraine and the volume of accumulated FDI in the economy and their annual inflow. Based on the model of linear dependence of Ukraine's economic growth on foreign direct investments, forecast scenarios of changes in Ukraine's GDP in actual prices and GDP per capita in 2023 were developed, provided that the volume of accumulated FDI in the economy increases. As a result of the study, no statistically significant dependence of the economic growth of Ukraine on the volume of accumulated FDI in the metallurgical industry and in the in the field of information and telecommunications sector was found. The regression analysis confirmed the significant direct dependence of Ukraine's economic growth on the volume of FDI involved in the machine-building industry, which proves their important role in the implementation of post-war economic recovery projects of Ukraine.

КОНЦЕПТУАЛЬНІ ОСНОВИ РОЗВИТКУПОТЕНЦІАЛУ ПІДПРИЄМСТВ ОБОРОННО-ПРОМИСЛОВОГО КОМПЛЕКСУ В ЕКОНОМІЧНОМУ ЗРОСТАННІУКРАЇНИ

As for objectives, it was taken into consideration the fact that due to the military state of Ukraine caused by wide-broaden war actions and aggression of Russian federation, economy of the country is characterized by reduction of production volumes, GDP and profitability. Accordingly, it was underlined the importance of industrial increase of national producers, and the right way to solve this problem is to activate production growth of defense industrial complex. In this case, it is significant not only for economy, but military forces of Ukraine supply. Results. On the basis of analysis of production activities of defense industrial enterprises through recent years, especially since 2014 when the Crimea territory was annexed by Russia and Donbas region military actions started, it was defined the level of its production and economic potential that deals with high, normal and low points. It allowed understanding if Ukraine’s defense industrial complex has possibilities to fulfill economic growth and military forces supply in particular. Further, it was presented analysis of international place of Ukraine’s defense industrial complex and its tendency through the years since 2014. It was set up that most of all Ukrainians enterprises characterized by high and normal production and economic potential that also deals with positive demand on international market of weapons and ammunition. In order to describe if there were started the necessary strategies, programs, plans and actions on state, regional and administrative levels, it was systematized the list of actual and important documents. In the end, it was made the scheme of conceptual basis of production potential development of defense industrial enterprises in the economic growth of Ukraine. The core elements were proposed as government defense order programs, innovations, foreign investments, system of monitoring and guarantees for partners and national producers, activation of accompanying supporting branches of Ukraine’s economy. Conclusions. In order to get out of recession, increase GDP and achieve the appropriate level of economic growth, it is significant to activate both quality and capacitive volumes of defense industrial complex production that can become as catalyst for development of all spheres of national reproduction in Ukraine. As for export volumes, during the entire duration of war actions, military state and restoration of safety positions, it is advisable to limit it, and to extend only those foreign trade contracts that are long-term and strategically valuable for integration of Ukraine into European Union.

Trading Partners and Output Growth in Ukraine

This study aimed to empirically estimate the long-term and short-term relations between the output of trading partners and economic growth in Ukraine. With the use of quarterly data over the 2004-2019 period, it was found that an increase of output in the euro area resulted in the most substantial stimulating long-term effect on the level of GDP in Ukraine, followed by spillovers from output growth in Poland. There was no long-term effect of output in other major trading partners, such as other Central and Eastern European countries (Czechia, Hungary, Slovakia) and the former Soviet Union countries (Belarus, Kazakhstan, Russia). In the short run, the stimulating effect of foreign output was confirmed only for spillovers from the euro area. Among other results, there was a longterm contractionary effect of both exchange rate depreciation and liberalisation of the economic environment, as indicated by the Index of Economic Freedom from the Washington-based Heritage Foundation (both factors are neutral with respect to Ukraine’s output in the short run).