Simulation of the impact of foreign direct investment on the Ukraine’s economy in the conditions of post-war reconstruction

Abstract

The article examines the dynamics of accumulated foreign direct investment in the economy of Ukraine in 2010–2021 and analyzes the reasons for the significant decrease in FDI inflows to the economy of Ukraine, the withdrawal of significant amounts of capital by foreign investors in periods of deepening economic crisis. The structural changes of foreign direct investment in the Ukrainian economy by types of economic activity and by industry for the period 2015–2021 are analyzed. With the help of regression analysis, modeling of the dependence of economic growth of Ukraine on changes in the volume of foreign direct investments was carried out under the condition that the war ends in 2023. To build a linear regression model, data on the GDP of Ukraine, GDP per capita, the volume of accumulated FDI in the economy and their annual revenues, the volume of FDI in the main sectors of the economy in 2010–2021 and the forecast values of these indicators in 2023–2025. The results of the study confirmed the importance of increasing both the total volume of FDI and the volume of investment involved in high-tech industries industry, to restore the economy of Ukraine after the end of the war. Regression analysis made it possible to reveal a direct connection between the economic growth of Ukraine and the volume of accumulated FDI in the economy and their annual inflow. Based on the model of linear dependence of Ukraine's economic growth on foreign direct investments, forecast scenarios of changes in Ukraine's GDP in actual prices and GDP per capita in 2023 were developed, provided that the volume of accumulated FDI in the economy increases. As a result of the study, no statistically significant dependence of the economic growth of Ukraine on the volume of accumulated FDI in the metallurgical industry and in the in the field of information and telecommunications sector was found. The regression analysis confirmed the significant direct dependence of Ukraine's economic growth on the volume of FDI involved in the machine-building industry, which proves their important role in the implementation of post-war economic recovery projects of Ukraine.