Economic Desgrowth Research Articles

The Application of the COVID-19 Global Economic Impact Simulator in China

This paper establishes conceptual foundations for analyzing the economic dimensions of regional or global emerging and endemic infectious disease events, such as the case of Covid-19. The Covid-19 Global Economic Impact Simulator attempts to identify the Covid-19 transmission parameters and forecast its trajectories. The model introduces seven basic indicators - (i) the Covid-19 contagious spread intensity rate (S.I.), (ii) the treatment level for Covid-19 infected cases rate (T); (iii) the number of Covid-19 causalities rate (-C); (iv) the economic wear from the Covid-19 epidemic rate (-Π); (v) the Covid-19 contagious cases multiplier rate (M); (vi) the total economic leaking from the Covid-19 epidemic rate (-Ltotal); and (vii) the economic desgrowth from the Covid-19 epidemic rate (-δ2019-nCoV). Findings show that Covid-19 exhibits parallel spatial and temporal conditions with the related R.N.A. virus family but carries distinct infection signatures and magnitude of virus replication. Covid-19 ferocity can trigger a severe public health emergency in China with significant impacts on the domestic and world economies.

How the Russo-Ukrainian War is Generating Economic Desgrowth Chains (-δchains) Worldwide?

How the Russo-Ukrainian War is Generating Economic Desgrowth Chains (-δchains) Worldwide?

The Application of the 2019-nCoV Global Economic Impact Simulator (the 2019-nCoV-GEI-Simulator) in China

This paper intends to establish conceptual foundations of analyzing the economic dimensions of regional or global emerging and endemic infectious disease events such as the case of 2019-nCoV. The 2019-nCoV Global Economic Impact Simulator (the 2019-nCoV-GEI-Simulator) attempts to identify the 2019-nCoV transmission parameters and forecast its trajectories. The model introduces seven basic indicators - (i) the 2019-nCoV contagious spread intensity rate (SI), (ii) the treatment level for 2019-nCoV infected cases rate (T); (iii) the number of 2019-nCoV causalities rate (-C); (iv) the economic wear from the 2019-nCoV epidemic rate (-Π); (v) the 2019-nCoV contagious cases multiplier rate (M); (vi) the total economic leaking from the 2019-nCoV epidemic rate (-Ltotal); and (vii) the economic desgrowth from the 2019-nCoV epidemic rate (-δ2019-nCoV). This specific simulator investigates the 2019-nCoV epidemic final impact on the Chinese economy domestically and internationally.

A Multidimensional Graphical Representation of Poverty: The Octahedron of Poverty

This research paper presents a multidimensional graphical modeling to study the behavior of the poverty of any country from a multidimensional perspective. This multidimensional graphical modeling is called “the octahedron of poverty.” The octahedron of poverty is not intended to use a forecasting model in any case. However, its application is not limited to the study of a special group of countries. It is not constrained by issues about the region or countries that are interested in applying the octahedron of poverty. There are four basic phases in the implementation of octahedron of poverty. The first phase is the design of the data-input-table. The second phase is the measurement of each negative factors that can generate poverty (Xi) (or independent variables), which includes the calculation of the inflation growth rate (X1), the unemployment growth rate (X2), the economic desgrowth growth rate (X3) and the government budget deficit (X4). At the same time, the calculation of two dependent variables such as the poverty growth rate (Y1) and the inequality growth rate (Y2) respectively. The third phase is the construction of the octahedron of poverty. Finally, the octahedron of poverty was applied to five countries such as U.S., Japan, China, Chile, and Guatemala.

India-Pakistan War: How Painful and How Costly?

This paper intends to establish conceptual foundations of analyzing the economic dimensions of warfare. The main objective of this research paper is to evaluate the final impact of a war between India and Pakistan under the application of the Post-War Final Economic Damage Simulator (PFEDS). The PFEDS attempts to estimate the heterogeneous macroeconomic effects of a potential military conflict. The simulator suggests nine different indicators: (i) the territorial dispute tension, ∆T; (ii) the territorial dispute strategy, Sn; (iii) warfare dimension, Ak; (iv) warfare losses, -π, (v) warfare economic leaking, -Ψ, (vi) warfare economic desgrowth, -δw; (vii) the post-war economic damage, -Π; (viii) the post-war reconstruction plan, Rt; (ix) and the Mega-Disk Networks Analysis. The simulator investigates the territorial dispute between India and Pakistan (1946-2019) about Kashmir.

Is terrorism, poverty, and refugees the dark side of globalization?

We present a new model on the impact of terrorism on the Deglobalization process. The channels are faster poverty expansion, largest flows of refugees, expansion of trade protectionism, and last but not least, the dramatic expansion of economic desgrowth. This new model is entitled “The Deglobalization Global Evaluation Model (DGE-Model)”. The objective of the DGE-Model is to offer policy-makers and researchers a new analytical tool to study the impact of terrorism on the Deglobalization process of Muslim countries. The applicability of the DGE-Model is not limited to a specific group of Muslim countries or regions, nor is it constrained by the development stage. In short, the DGE-Model is a simple, flexible and versatile tool to study the link between terrorism and Deglobalization. Finally, we apply the DGE-Model to three Muslim countries, namely Syria, Iraq, and Afghanistan. Our sample period is 1999–2018, a period which witnessed acceleration of Deglobalization and expansion of terrorism in those three countries.

Is Terrorism, Poverty, and Refugees the Dark Side of Globalization?

We present a new model on the impact of terrorism on the Deglobalization process. The channels are faster poverty expansion, largest flows of refugees, expansion of trade protectionism, and last but not least, the dramatic expansion of economic desgrowth. This new model is entitled “The Deglobalization Global Evaluation Model (DGE-Model)”. The objective of the DGE-Model is to offer policy-makers and researchers a new analytical tool to study the impact of terrorism on the Deglobalization process of Muslim countries. The applicability of the DGE-Model is not limited to a specific group of Muslim countries or regions, nor is it constrained by the development stage. In short, the DGE-Model is a simple, flexible and versatile tool to study the link between terrorism and Deglobalization. Finally, we apply the DGE-Model to three Muslim countries, namely Syria, Iraq, and Afghanistan. Our sample period is 1999 to 2018, a period which witnessed acceleration of Deglobalization and expansion of terrorism in those three countries.

Deglobalization and Terrorism: The Case of the Muslim Countries (Afghanistan, Iraq, and Syria)

This research will present a new model on the study the impact of terrorism on the Deglobalization process through the evaluation of the faster poverty expansion, largest flows of refugees, expansion of trade closeness (several reductions of exports and imports simultaneously), and last but not least, the dramatic expansion of the economic desgrowth. This new model is entitled Deglobalization Global Evaluation Model (DGE-Model). The objective of the DGE-Model is to offer policy-makers and researchers a new analytical tool to study the impact of terrorism on the Deglobalization process of any Muslim country. The DGE-Model application is not limited to the study of a special group of Muslim countries or regions. It is not constrained by issues about the region or the development stages of any Muslim country. DGE-Model, in effect, is a simple and flexible scheme. Finally, this research shows the results obtained in the application of DGE-Model in different Muslim countries such as Syria, Iraq, and Afghanistan. The period of study is from 1999 to 2018 and the reason to select this short period is to observe the accelerated Deglobalization process in these three Muslim countries respectively.

The impact of terrorism on economic performance: The case of Turkey

We apply the terrorist attack vulnerability evaluation model (TAVE-Model) to evaluate the effect of terrorism on the economic performance of Turkey. We examine both the short run and long-run economic impact of terrorist attacks in Turkey. The TAVE-Model deploys a number of indicators to evaluate the economic impact. The indicators are economic desgrowth (-δ), intensity of terrorist activities (αi), terrorist attack losses (-π), economic wear (Π), level of terrorist attack tension (ζ), level of terrorist attacks monitoring (η), and total economic leaking (Ωt) under a terrorist attack. The basic underlying idea of TAVE-Model is that the economic impact of a terrorist attack depends on a country’s vulnerability to attacks from domestic and international terrorist groups. The application of a model to Turkey is highly topical in light of the spate of terrorist attacks the country suffered in recent years. The results of TAVE-Model confirm that economic leaking, economic desgrowth, and economic wear has increased between 1990 and 2016. The issue of terrorism in Turkey is multidimensional, and tackling it requires an effective social assistance program as well as a stronger and impartial justice system. These reforms will render poorer Turks less vulnerable and increase the opportunity cost of terrorism.

Economic Dynamics of Territorial Military Conflicts: The Case of Kashmir

This paper intends to establish conceptual foundations of analyzing the economic dimensions of warfare. The Post-War Final Economic Damage Simulator (PFEDS) attempts to estimate the heterogeneous macroeconomic effects of a potential military conflict. The model suggests nine different indicators: (i) the territorial dispute tension, ∆T; (ii) the territorial dispute strategy, Sn; (iii) warfare dimension, Ak; (iv) warfare losses, -π, (v) warfare economic leaking, -Ψ, (vi) warfare economic desgrowth, -δw; (vii) the post-war economic damage, -Π; (viii) the post-war reconstruction plan, Rt; (ix) and the Mega-Disk Networks Analysis. The model investigates the territorial dispute between India and Pakistan (1946-2016) about Kashmir.

The Impact of Terrorism on Turkey's Economic Performance from 1990 to 2016

This research work applies the terrorist attack vulnerability evaluation model (TAVEModel) to evaluate the effect of terrorism on the economic performance of Turkey. We examine both the short run and long-run economic impact of terrorist attacks in Turkey. The TAVE-Model applies a number of indicators to evaluate the economic impact. The indicators are economic desgrowth (-δ), intensity of terrorist activities (αi), terrorist attack losses (-π), economic wear (Π), level of terrorist attack tension (ζ), level of terrorist attacks monitoring (η), and total economic leaking (Ωt) under a terrorist attack. The idea of TAVE-Model is that the economic impact of a terrorist attack depends on a country’s vulnerability to attacks from domestic and international terrorist groups. The application of a model to Turkey is highly topical in light of the spate of terrorist attacks the country suffered recently. The results of TAVE-Model confirms that economic leaking, economic desgrowth, and economic wear has increased from the 1990s to 2016. The issue of terrorism in Turkey is multidimensional, which requires an effective social assistance program as well as a stronger and impartial justice system, that will render poorer Turks and will increase the opportunity cost of terrorism.

The economic cost of the Islamic State on the Syrian and Iraqi economies

In this paper, we evaluate the economic cost of the Islamic State on the Syrian and Iraqi economies from 2010 to 2016. To do so, we use the Post-Terrorism Final Economic Damage Simulator—PTFED-Simulator. The PTFED-Simulator assesses the economic damage of terrorism based on ten different indicators: (1) total regional terrorism tension (∆Tt); (2) harmonized anti-terrorist strategy (AT+); (3) war losses from terrorism (−πt); (4) total economic leakage from terrorism (−Ψt); (5) economic desgrowth from terrorism (−δt); (6) military dimension of terrorism (MDt); (7) post-terrorism economic damage (−Πt); (8) post terrorism economic damage evaluation; (9) post-terrorism reconstruction plan (PTRt); and (10) terrorism effect on mega-disk networks mapping. Overall, we seek to evaluate the impact of terrorism on economic performance from a multi-dimensional perspective in both the short run and long run.

Hydrological hazard assessment: THE 2014–15 Malaysia floods

This paper intends to establish conceptual foundations on the identification of standards and metrics for assessing the impact of hydrological hazards. The economic evaluation of flood damage cost model (EFDC-Model) attempts to estimate the impact of water occurrence, movement, and distribution on GNP growth. The model is based on seven basic indicators: (i) the national precipitation growth rate (∆Pi); (ii) the main factors which generate large precipitation (∆Li); (iii) the sinking magnitudes levels rate (ST); (iv) the national floods recurrence rate (FT); (v) the floods devastation rate (Dk); (vi) the economic desgrowth from floods devastation rate (-δf); and (vii) the floods damage surface. The model investigates the recent floods in the Malaysian states of Kelantan and Terengganu for the period 2014–2015.

The evaluation of a possible future Sino-Japanese armed conflict through the application of the ACEI-model

There is relatively little formal modeling of the economic effects of armed conflicts even though they have substantial economic effects. We set forth a new model, namely the armed conflict economic impact model – ACEI-Model. The model looks at the economic effects of war in three different stages: (i) pre-conflict stage; (ii) armed conflict stage; and (iii) post-conflict stage. The model is based on economic desgrowth (-δ) and other new conceptual indicators. We evaluate an imaginary armed conflict between China and Japan by applying the ACEI-Model.

Terrorist attack assessment: Paris November 2015 and Brussels March 2016

This paper intends to establish conceptual foundations of analyzing the economic dimensions of terrorism. The economic impact of terrorist attack model (EITA-Model) attempts to estimate the optimum number of potential terrorist incidents that can influence the regional economic performance. The model suggests a three-phase of terrorist operations: (i) the terrorist group attack setting; (ii) the terrorist group attack behavior; and (iii) the post-effect of the terrorist group attack. The model introduces five alternative risk indicators for the estimation of terrorist attacks: (i) the maximum level of terrorist group attack targets (φ′); (ii) terrorist group attack destruction (−π); (iii) economic terrorist wear (W); (iv) economic desgrowth (−δ); and (v) the multidimensional graphical sub-strategic national security sector analysis. The model investigates the recent terrorist attacks in Paris November 2015 and in Brussels March 2016.

An Economic Model of the Wartime Economy: An Application to a Possible Sino-Japanese Conflict

This paper introduces a new economic model of a wartime economy, the war economic capability model—WEC-Model. The WEC-Model assesses the economic impact of an armed conflict in three different stages: (1) initial armed conflict and diplomatic negotiations; (2) military armed conflict; and (3) winners and losers in the post-armed conflict stage. The analysis makes use of new indicators such as economic desgrowth (−δ), armed conflict intensity (αi), armed conflict losses (−π), economic wear (Π), level of armed conflict tension (ζ), level of diplomatic negotiations (η), and total economic leaking (Ωt). To illustrate the model, we apply it to evaluate an imaginary armed conflict between the People’s Republic of China and Japan.

The economic impact of terrorism: A new model and its application to Pakistan

This paper introduces a new economic model to analyze the effects of a possible terrorist attack, namely the terrorist attack vulnerability evaluation model (TAVE-Model). The model analyzes three different phases of terrorism: (i) origins of a terrorist attack; (ii) terrorist attack itself; and (iii) post-attack effects. In addition, the TAVE-Model identifies economic desgrowth (−δ), intensity of terrorist activities (αi), terrorist attack losses (−π), economic wear (Π), level of terrorist attack tension (ζ), level of terrorist attacks monitoring (η), and total economic leaking (Ωt) under a terrorist attack. Finally, we apply the TAVE-Model to Pakistan, a country where terrorism poses a significant socio-economic risk. More specifically, we use the model to assess the relationship between terrorism and the economic performance of Pakistan.

Terrorism and India: an economic perspective

This study seeks to evaluate the terrorism and economic performance of the economy of India from the year 2004 to the year 2013. The analysis of the study is based on the model of Economics of Terrorism Monitoring Model (ETM-Model) introduced by Khan et al. (Qual Quant, 2015). The main objective of this research study is to scrutinize the terrorism situation in the economy of India. The effects of terrorism on the economic performance is measured by economic desgrowth. The economic desgrowth generated from economic growth rate due to terrorism in the year 2004 for the Indian economy is −0.91 %, while the economic desgrowth for the year 2013 of the same economy is −2.05 %. The study concludes that terrorism is one of the main issue of the Indian economy from the economic perspective. Indian government may work with Pakistan to resolve the issue of Jammu and Kashmir to overcome the terrorism issue. It is also needed for the Indian economy to make harmony between Muslims and Hindu with in the territory of India.

The effects of terrorism on economic performance: the case of Islamic State in Iraq and Syria (ISIS)

This study evaluates the impact of terrorism on economic performance in Islamic States of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) from the year 2004 to 2013. Study applied the economics of crime monitoring model by Ruiz Estrada and Ndoma (J Policy Model 36:867–882, 2014) for analysis. The application of the model for ISIS has five phases (a) the total terrorism frequency rate (β) (b) the national terrorism vulnerability rate (µT) (c) the terrorism devastation magnitude rate (λ) (d) the economic desgrowth rate (δ) (e) the terrorism vulnerability surface. The results of study conclude that terrorism has badly affected the economic performance of ISIS during the study period. Instead of direct fighting against the terrorist group in ISIS, the developed world especially the Europe and United States of America may review the terrorism policy about these economies and may eradicates the terrorism by reducing poverty, religious discrimination and inequality to increase the opportunity cost of terrorism.

Applying the natural disasters vulnerability evaluation model to the March 2011 north-east Japan earthquake and tsunami.

Natural hazards have a potentially large impact on economic growth, but measuring their economic impact is subject to a great deal of uncertainty. The central objective of this paper is to demonstrate a model--the natural disasters vulnerability evaluation (NDVE) model--that can be used to evaluate the impact of natural hazards on gross national product growth. The model is based on five basic indicators-natural hazards growth rates (αi), the national natural hazards vulnerability rate (ΩT), the natural disaster devastation magnitude rate (Π), the economic desgrowth rate (i.e. shrinkage of the economy) (δ), and the NHV surface. In addition, we apply the NDVE model to the north-east Japan earthquake and tsunami of March 2011 to evaluate its impact on the Japanese economy.