Economic Adjustment Research Articles

Is there a way out of the crisis? Macroeconomic challenges for Greece after the Covid-19 pandemic

ABSTRACT In the past decade, Hellenic economic adjustment managed to restore macroeconomic balances and growth rates although to the detriment of debt sustainability and citizens’ welfare. Covid-19 hit in 2020 the growth drivers of the Greek economy leading, once again, to rise in unemployment and to depression of economic activity. The article presents the macroeconomic priorities for the Greek economy after Covid-19 pandemic. The analysis considers four issue areas that are closely linked with growth namely primary fiscal balance, debt sustainability, external competitiveness and unemployment-poverty. It is argued that under certain conditions positive evolution of the four variables can keep Greek economy and Greek productive networks on track, limiting negative repercussions for the Greek society.

Talking to the hand: Bargaining, strategic interaction, and economic sanctions

The dominant theoretical perspective guiding research on economic sanctions views sanctions as tools of bargaining. This implies that senders and targets are engaged in strategic interaction and that each is basing its decisions, in part, on its expectations regarding how its opponent will react. In this paper, we test a number of hypotheses derived from a game-theoretic model developed by Morgan and Miers (1999) that focus specifically on the bargaining processes in sanctions episodes. Our results provide no support for these hypotheses and seem to suggest that sanctions senders and targets are paying very little attention to each other, at least in a manner consistent with the theory. We conclude with a consideration of why this might be the case and with some speculation regarding what this means for future research into the processes of economic sanctions. In short, we believe our results indicate that a new theoretical paradigm, focusing on legal enforcement and economic adjustment at the micro level is in order.

Impact of macro-socioeconomic determinants on sustainable perinatal health care in Portugal: a qualitative study on the opinion of healthcare professionals and experts

BackgroundThe WHO identified the importance of macro-socioeconomic determinants and political context as interlinked key factors affecting healthcare quality and health equity. As a response to the recent economic and financial crisis, Portugal approved in 2011 the Economic Adjustment Programme (EAP) to obtain financial assistance from the Troika in order to reduce public debt. This study aims to analyse the impact of the economic crisis and the EAP on perinatal healthcare quality for very preterm (VPT) and/or very low birth weight (VLBW) infants, as perceived by healthcare professionals and experts, within the health administrative regions of the two major metropolitan areas in Portugal.MethodsA qualitative approach was applied to receive an in-depth understanding and accomplish perspective variability. A purposive sampling technique was used. Semi-structured interviews were conducted with twenty-one healthcare professionals and experts between October 2018–July 2019. Inductive thematic analysis was performed which encompassed a five-step categorization procedure. Data analysis was undertaken by utilizing Nvivo2011 software. Evolved themes were then associated with WHO’s Quality Standards on Maternal and New-born Care. A framework on the impact of macro-socioeconomic determinants on perinatal health care quality was developed.ResultsAlthough participants did not perceive the quality of perinatal care had deteriorated, the analysis of their accounts on work experience revealed that it was indeed adversely modified in all WHO Quality Standards. Health care provision was perceived as detrimental in five main areas: 1) Availability of human resources; 2) Functional referral systems; 3) Competent and motivated human resources; 4) Emotional support; and 5) Essential physical resources available. Policy reforms by the EAP resulted in reduced timeliness of care, increased waiting times, cuts in sequence and duration of consultations, and deficiencies in follow-up care for VPT/VLBW infants and their mothers. The EAP directly influenced working environment of healthcare professionals by causing stress, burnout, work absence, and brain drain.ConclusionAn interrelation between macro-socioeconomic determinants and perinatal health care quality was disclosed. The economic crisis and EAP have adversely modified equitable perinatal health care quality for VPT/VLBW infants and their mothers. Our findings underlined the negative impact of austerity policies on vulnerable populations.

Possibilities for economic adjustments educational process in the ЕurАsЕС countries

The paper attempts to analyze the problems of adjusting the educational process in the EurAsEC countries that have arisen in recent decades in case of unforeseen circumstances. At the end of the 20th century, the ideas of globalization of all areas of the world community's activity led in the field of higher education to a thirst for immediate changes. What prompted the concern of the leading universities in Europe, which train highly qualified for the real sectors of the economy? An analysis of the current situation showed that the realities existing at that time pushed people to action, since analysts of higher education have repeatedly noticed that in the field of many areas of fundamental research, Europe is significantly inferior to the United States. Also noteworthy is the identity of the Nobel laureates. Independent commentators, beyond any emotion, pointed out that the United States has always invested significant amounts of money in the development of science. These problems gave rise to the Bologna process of reforming higher education in Europe. In this regard, the problems are considered and the prospects for the creation and development of a single educational space on the territory of the member states of the Eurasian Economic Union, considered by the authors as an important component of economic integration in the post-Soviet space, are identified. From the standpoint of taking into account foreign experience, as well as existing elements of educational integration within the framework of such associations. as EurAsEC, SCO, CIS, the main directions of integration interaction in the field of education of the EAEU countries are highlighted. The authors made attempts to formulate ways out of the current situation in the Eurasian educational space, especially in cases of unforeseen environmental conditions, such as a pandemic. Although in the educational space under consideration, the state of affairs with the organization, and in particular with funding, research and science is worse, this should not lead to ignoring the interests of both the students themselves and educational organizations in general. Insufficient funding is aggravated by many other factors, which together lead to the conclusion that EurAsia needs innovations designed to “modernize” the structure of education.

The 2017 Primary Health Care (PHC) reform in Greece: Improving access despite economic and professional constraints?

Between 2010 and 2018 Greece was subject to a bailout programme by international creditors and three successive Economic Adjustment Programmes (EAP). These involved large-scale austerity measures and drastic reductions in public sector spending including healthcare. Within this context and in line with the international best practice guidelines for primary care, in August 2017 the left-wing SYRIZA government passed a law for the reform of the Primary Health Care (PHC) sector. The reform introduced the establishment of Local Health Units and the embedded notion of the ‘family doctor’ as the first pillar of healthcare provision. These reforms aimed to strengthen primary care and to improve access to publicly provided primary care services. Despite the promising claims, the reform was a subject of criticism and failed to engage key stakeholder groups and to be delivered within the original timeline. The aim of this paper is to present the chronicle of the reform, its current status at a national level and its implementation challenges. To address current implementation hindrances, the reform of the Greek PHC sector is expected to undergo systemic changes, including factoring in the scheme’s funding needs after 2021, with the successive government reconsidering its future form.

Marine economic industrial structure based on fuzzy entropy and least square regression model

China’s economy is in the critical period of transformation from a traditional land economy to a marine economy. China is rich in marine resources, facing important development opportunities and challenges. The adjustment of marine economic industrial structure is of great significance to promote the development of China’s marine economy. To intuitively analyze and clearly understand the effect of industrial structure adjustment of marine economy in recent years in China, using the data of China’s marine industry from 2008 to 2018, fuzzy entropy theory, and least square regression model, the influence of the scientificity and advancement of marine economic industrial structure adjustment on marine economic was analyzed. Results show that the fitting degree of the model is good and significant, with every 1% increase in the scientificity and height of marine economic industrial structure adjustment, the marine economy increases by 1.88% and 2.80%, respectively. The development of marine science and technology can promote the rise of the marine economy.

The USMCA and Mexico’s Prospects under the New North American Trade Regime

After 26 years of trading under the North American Free Trade agreement (NAFTA), Mexico and its North American partners enter a new phase with the entry into force of United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) on 1 July 2020. This note quantifies the potential impact of the agreement on Mexico and assesses its implications for Mexico’s economic development in the context of the evolving knowledge-based and data-driven economy, the restructuring of global supply chains in response to the risks that were highlighted by the pandemic-driven economic crisis, and the changes to global trade and investment patterns driven by the trade and technology friction between the United States and China. The USMCA provides a major overhaul of the NAFTA based largely on the text of the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP). It introduces some minor improvements to market access but its main effect for the industrial sectors of the economy is to intensify trade and investment diversion through more restrictive rules of origin, including onerous new requirements for labour value content in the automotive sector that impose significant adjustments on Mexico’s auto sector producers. The agreement builds on the institutional framework of the NAFTA, retaining the binational panel review mechanism for trade remedies – now Chapter 30 – intact, preserving the investor-state-dispute-settlement (ISDS) mechanism for Mexico-US investments only, improving state-to-state dispute settlement mechanism by addressing procedural weaknesses in the NAFTA version that had undermined its use, and introducing a new rapid-response mechanism for challenges to Mexico’s compliance with the labour market measures newly incorporated in the USMCA. The agreement, however, leaves open the use of US Section 232 “national security” tariffs and thus does not address the main new source of uncertainty concerning assured access to the US market for its North American partners. The analysis concludes that the net impact on Mexico is to reduce real gross domestic product (GDP) by about -0.8% compared to the NAFTA, once the economic adjustments are fully in place. Since Mexico had already signed onto disciplines on data localization and cross-border data flows under the CPTPP, the digital economy measures have little direct impact; however, how Mexico engages in the digital economy, both to tap the economic potential and to develop regulatory safeguards will be an important determinant of how well it fares under the new USMCA trade regime.

Regional differences in mainland China after the 1970s economic reform

Relevance. In recent years, China’s GDP has continued to grow, however, the regional gap in socio-economic development is still huge. It is, therefore, crucial to investigate the reasons behind regional disparities and the possible solutions to this problem. Research objective. This paper aims to examine the patterns of regional differences in mainland China after the economic reform of the 1970s. Data and methods. The study relies on the methods of comparative analysis and the data from the National Bureau of Statistics of the People’s Republic of China and the Statistical Yearbook Sharing Platform as well as the information from the national media portal - Xinhua News Agency. Results. The Chinese government’s application of differentiated measures, strategies and policies to different regions exacerbated the existing disparities. This paper elaborates on the future regional economic adjustments and plans and thus can be of interest to investors and business activists in China and other countries.

The greening of the revolution: Changing state views on nature and development in Cuba’s transforming socialism

In the early 1990s, in the midst of the deepest economic crisis in its recent history, President Fidel Castro proclaimed sustainable development as the new guiding principle for Cuba. This would prove to be a wise move in the context of crisis management.This article explores the shift in Cuba’s state visions of nature and development, which occurred in the wake of the deep crisis unfolding after the breakdown of the Eastern Bloc, on which Cuba heavily depended. This vital threat to the country’s socialist system necessitated far-reaching economic and social policy adjustments, resulting in painful consequences for its citizens. The measures taken in the so-called Special Period demanded a new development vision for their legitimation. The Castro government developed a reformed socialist development model, shifting away from the ideal of Soviet model catch-up modernisation and its instrumental view on nature, towards the paradigm of sustainable development. Based on the analysis of 55 speeches made by Fidel Castro between 1959 and 1996, this radical change in views on nature and development is analysed. This paradigm shift served several political purposes and helped the Cuban leadership navigate through the crisis of the 1990s.

The Role of Intergenerational Relationships: Applying the Family Stress Model to Grandfamilies

The Family Stress Model (FSM) of Economic Hardship (Conger, Rueter, & Conger, 2000) was developed to explain the impact of financial stress on families through links between economic difficulties, parental emotional distress, marital conflict, disrupted parenting behaviors, and child maladjustment. The FSM has been cross validated in samples of custodial grandparents (i.e., grandparents who provide substantial care for their grandchildren; Smith et al., 2017). The current study modified the FSM by replacing inter-parent relationship difficulties with inter-generational relationship problems between the custodial grandparents and their children to ultimately examine the adjustment of the grandchildren. This change to the model is supported by prior research conducted on intergenerational stress impacting the parenting and subsequent development of children in grandfamilies (Barnett, Mills-Koonce, Gustafsson, & Cox, 2012). Using a nationwide sample of 317 custodial grandparents aged 40 and older (M = 61 yr) the fit of the modified model was tested using AMOS 26. Latent variables in the model included Economic Pressure, Caregiver Distress, Disrupted Parenting, Intergenerational Relationship, and Child Adjustment. Moderate fit was achieved (χ2(308) = 574.88; CFI = .896; RMSEA = .052). All pathways were significant with the exception of Disrupted Parenting to Child Adjustment. These results indicate that intergenerational relationships are an important predictor of child adjustment, and an applicable substitute for inter-partner relationships when modeling family stress in custodial grandfamilies. Details and clinical implications will be discussed.

Economics and Epicycles

I aver that standard economics as a model of human behavior is as incorrect in 2017 (after Thaler) as geocentrism was as a model of celestial behavior in 1617 (after Galileo). Behavioral economic studies that have exposed the paradoxes and anomalies in standard economics are akin to epicycles on geocentrism. Just as no amount of epicycles could salvage geocentrism as a model of celestial behavior because it was fundamentally incorrect, no amount of behavioral economic adjustments could salvage standard economics as a model of human behavior because it is fundamentally incorrect. Many of the cognitive biases exhibited by humans are shared by other species, so not only are human actors Humans (as opposed to Econs), but nonhuman animals as phylogenetically distant from humans as ants and locusts are also Humans. Evolutionary biology as a model of human behavior can explain many of the hitherto unexplained cognitive biases and provide a unifying model of human behavior currently lacking in behavioral economics.

The issue of school privatisation in Côte d'Ivoire

The Ivorian state has been involved in the construction of public schools given their importance for development. Since the 1980s, there has been a reduction in funding linked to the economic crisis and structural adjustment programmes. Thus, by a convention the State will concede the public service of education to the private sector.
 The results of this research on the conditions of access to private schools in the Abidjan district were analysed through a cross-sectional study with descriptive and analytical aims. This has led to disparities in costs between municipalities. 40,000 FCFA for minima and 1, 922,000 FCFA for maxima, a multiplication order of 48. In secondary school, the minimum is 43,000 FCFA and the maximum is 2, 706,000 FCFA, a multiplication order of 63. In higher education there are less disparities.
 In total, there are many differences in the costs of schooling from one school to another. While the public-private partnership has encouraged more children to attend school, it has also created a challenge to access because of the expensive costs of attending school.

The indebtedness of households up until the economic adjustment programme for Portugal: an empirical assessment

Ever since the 2008 financial crisis, authorities have been particularly aware of the necessity to be provided with early warning indicators regarding financial stability. Indeed, the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision suggests conducting an analysis of the difference between the private sector credit-to-GDP ratio and its own long-term trend, even though this ratio has been criticised for its poor suitability to countries that have experienced a rapid build-up of credit. For the past two decades, Portugal has witnessed a dramatic increase in the indebtedness of households and the objective of this paper is precisely to examine the relationship between private credit and GDP from 1961 to 2011. Based on the methodology employed in Kelly, McQuinn and Stuart (2011) for the Portuguese case, our main conclusions are the non-suitability of Basel Committee on Banking Supervision approach for Portugal and the rupture of the link between deposits and credit from 1992 onwards.

The distributional impact of recurrent immovable property taxation in Greece

During the last decade, Greece faced one of the most severe debt crises among developed countries, leading to Economic Adjustment Programs in order to avoid a disorderly default. Public expenditure was cut, tax rates were increased and new taxes were introduced aiming at restoring public finances. Prominent among the latter were recurrent property taxes that were playing a very minor role before the crisis. These taxes helped boosting public revenues but were hugely unpopular. The paper examines in detail their distributional impact and finds that they led to increases in inequality and (relative) poverty. The result is stronger in the case of inequality indices that are relatively more sensitive to changes close to the bottom of the distribution and poverty indices that are sensitive to the distribution of income among the poor.

Regional economic resilience in the European Union: a numerical general equilibrium analysis

ABSTRACT Using a spatial general equilibrium model, this paper investigates the resilience of European Union regions under three alternative recessionary shocks, each activating different economic adjustments and mechanisms. We measure the vulnerability, resistance and recoverability of regions and identify key regional features affecting the ability of regions to withstand and recover from unexpected external shocks. The analysis reveals that the responses of regions vary according to the nature of the external disturbance and to the pre-shock regional characteristics. Finally, it seems that resilience also depends on factor mobility. The analysis, although designed before the onset of the Covid-19 pandemic, offers interesting insights into how to use a general equilibrium framework to study resilience in such a context.

The Predictive Power of Psychological Needs and Self-efficacy for the Level of Marital Happiness

This study aimed at identifying the most common psychological needs among wives, identifying the degree of self-efficacy and the level of martial happiness among the study sample individuals as well as identifying the extent to which these psychological needs contribute to predicting the level of marital happiness. The study consisted of (150) married female lawyers. To succeed the study objectives, the scale of psychological needs was developed; it consisted of (20) items that measure four basic dimensions: psychological security, the need to achievement, the need to affiliation, and need to respect. The scale of self-efficacy (Schwarzer & Jerusalem, 1995) was used, and the scale of marital happiness was developed; it consisted of (40) items that measure five main dimensions: emotional adjustment, intellectual adjustment, family adjustment, social adjustment, and economic adjustment.
 
 The study results directed that the most common psychological need among wives is the need to achievement. The results revealed that the level of self-efficacy among the study sample individuals was medium. The results showed that the level of marital happiness among the married Jordanian female lawyers was medium for the total degree and each of the following dimensions (emotional adjustment, economic adjustment, intellectual adjustment, social adjustment), while the dimension of family cohesion was of a high degree. The results revealed that there is a predictive power for the psychological needs and self-efficacy concerning the level of marital happiness.
 
 In the light of the results, the study recommended the necessity of conducting further experimental researches in the domain of self-efficacy and marital happiness by developing counseling programs to improve these variables among spouses.

Phillips Curve: The Greek Case

One of the most important problems facing Greece is the long-term and high-level unemployment rate. The Economic Adjustment Programmes (EAPs) focused on the supply side of the economy, aiming at the adjustment of prices and wages, draw on the classical economic model, as it is widely accepted that internal devaluation policies keep inflation low. This article attempts to examine whether the Keynesian theory and the Phillips Curve, which shows the relationship between unemployment and inflation, apply in the case of the Greek economy. We use descriptive statistics, ordinary least squares (OLS) and VAR Analysis to examine the relationship between the variables. According to the results, there is a negative correlation between unemployment and inflation in Greece, thus confirming the Phillips Curve hypothesis. Finally, results show that unemployment is less dependent on inflation compared with the past, and there are numerous other decisive factors affecting unemployment.

Economic Adjustment during the Great Recession: The Role of Managerial Quality

This study investigates empirically how managerial practices have affected macroeconomic adjustment during the Great Recession after the 2008 economic crisis. We start by constructing a country*industry balanced panel data over the 2007-2015 period for eighteen industries in ten OECD countries, and complementing it by two indicators: an indicator of management quality at the country level based on the managerial practices categorical scores at firm level from Bloom et al. (2012); and an indicator at the industry level for the shocks stemming from the 2008 economic crisis. We then rely on the local projection method pioneered by Jorda (2005) to estimate the direct impacts of country management quality indicators and industry economic shocks as well as their joint impacts, on five variables of interest: value-added, employment, labor productivity, wage per employee and labor share during the Great Recession. We find that, in countries where management quality is higher, production and employment are more resilient during the Great Recession, with less production losses and employment damages, no effects on productivity, wage moderation and a slight increase in the labor shares. It appears, moreover, that this resilience is increasing with the size of industry shocks. Institutional subscribers to the NBER working paper series, and residents of developing countries may download this paper without additional charge at www.nber.org.

Spatial Pattern and Influencing Factors of Regional Ecological Civilisation Construction in China

Ecological civilisation construction is a strategy for regional sustainable development based on a regional system of human-land relations. The comprehensive measurement and regional differentiation in construction levels are the key issues of ecological civilisation construction. This study aims to build 35 index systems that coalesce on four aspects: ecological economic adjustment and operation, ecological and social development and progress, ecological resources and environmental security, and ecological institutional and cultural awareness. We measured and evaluated the level of ecological civilisation construction of 329 cities (prefecture-level cities, autonomous prefectures and leagues) in 2018 using a comprehensive evaluation system and a spatial autocorrelation method to assess spatial differences in the level of ecological civilisation construction across China. This approach takes ‘the humanities-economic geography’ comprehensive perspective and uses a GWR (geographically weighted regression) model to analyse 10 influencing factors. Results show that: 1) the level of ecological construction can be divided into five types: higher, high, medium, low, and lower levels, according to the evaluation score. The five types are spindle-shaped in quantity and there is a significant imbalance in their spatial distribution, mainly trending from the southeast coast to the northwest. The land is decreasing, and the southern region is higher in level than the northern region. 2) The results of the spatial autocorrelation method show obvious spatial differences in ecological civilisation construction across China and that the level of ecological civilisation construction is positively autocorrelated. From east to west, the hot zone gradually transitions to a cold zone. A high-high type is mainly distributed in eastern coastal cities of China, and the number of high-low and low-high types are small. The low-low type is mainly distributed in the northwestern and northeastern regions. 3) The effect of influencing factors is heterogeneous in their spatial distribution, and the abundance of ecological resources is the most influential factor. According to the main influencing factors, each region should adhere to the principle of differentiation according to local conditions when choosing its ecological civilisation construction path and establishing an assessment mechanism. This study provides a scientific basis for enriching the regional level measurement of ecological civilisation construction, clarifying the current level of ecological civilisation construction in China, and implementing the regional differentiation path of ecological civilisation construction.

Study on the Distribution of Marine Industry around Bohai Sea under the Background of Ocean Economic Adjustment and Optimization

Ye, C., 2020. Study on the distribution of marine industry around Bohai Sea under the background of ocean economic adjustment and optimization. In: Bai, X. and Zhou, H. (eds.), Advances in Water Resources, Environmental Protection, and Sustainable Development. Journal of Coastal Research, Special Issue No. 115, pp. 163-165. Coconut Creek (Florida), ISSN 0749-0208.With the overall development of economy and society, economic globalization has become a new development trend, followed by the arrival of the post-financial crisis era. In the face of such an economic development environment, the economic management innovation of enterprises is very necessary. At the present stage, only by improving and innovating economic management can enterprises achieve leapfrog development and adapt to the development requirements of the post-financial crisis era. Only in this way can we further integrate human and material resources, grasp the close market relations and enable ourselves to occupy absolute advantages in the enterprise market. This paper is to discuss the research around the empirical study of the interaction between finance and marine economy in China, hoping to provide a feasible method for enterprises in economic management.