Ecological Uncertainty Research Articles

ReShaping Worlds: Thinking with and through positionality for thriving futures

Art theory as taught in Australian higher education still predominantly focuses on Eurocentric artistic practices, methodologies and histories, with practices by First Nations artists and artists of colour often relegated to tokenistic one-off lectures. This approach to syllabus fails to reflect the depth and breadth of contemporary art and creates an inherently imbalanced perspective disconnected from the diverse experiences of students. Simultaneously, students are expressing their own expectations for an empowered and critically reflexive art education. Using the undergraduate art theory course, ReShaping Worlds, as a case study, this collaborative article discusses the importance of developing curriculum that provides students with an expanded perspective on artistic and curatorial practices by decentring hegemonic Eurocentric art narratives and reflecting on positionality. In doing so, we also highlight our roles as arts educators in facilitating and supporting reflexive and critical practice amid climates of political, social and ecological uncertainty.

Enhancing ecological uncertainty predictions in pollution control games through dynamic Bayesian updating

This study presents a dynamic Bayesian game model designed to improve predictions of ecological uncertainties leading to natural disasters. It incorporates historical signal data on ecological indicators. Participants, acting as decision-makers, receive signals about an unknown parameter-observations of a random variable’s realization values before a specific time, offering insights into ecological uncertainties. The essence of the model lies in its dynamic Bayesian updating, where beliefs about unknown parameters are refined with each new signal, enhancing predictive accuracy. The main focus of our paper is to theoretically validate this approach, by presenting a number of theorems that prove its precision and efficiency in improving uncertainty estimations. Simulation results validate the model’s effectiveness in various scenarios, highlighting its role in refining natural disaster forecasts.

Individual and ecological heterogeneity promote complex communication in social vertebrate group decisions.

To receive the benefits of social living, individuals must make effective group decisions that enable them to achieve behavioural coordination and maintain cohesion. However, heterogeneity in the physical and social environments surrounding group decision-making contexts can increase the level of difficulty social organisms face in making decisions. Groups that live in variable physical environments (high ecological heterogeneity) can experience barriers to information transfer and increased levels of ecological uncertainty. In addition, in groups with large phenotypic variation (high individual heterogeneity), individuals can have substantial conflicts of interest regarding the timing and nature of activities, making it difficult for them to coordinate their behaviours or reach a consensus. In such cases, active communication can increase individuals' abilities to achieve coordination, such as by facilitating the transfer and aggregation of information about the environment or individual behavioural preferences. Here, we review the role of communication in vertebrate group decision-making and its relationship to heterogeneity in the ecological and social environment surrounding group decision-making contexts. We propose that complex communication has evolved to facilitate decision-making in specific socio-ecological contexts, and we provide a framework for studying this topic and testing related hypotheses as part of future research in this area. This article is part of the theme issue 'The power of sound: unravelling how acoustic communication shapes group dynamics'.

The response of ostracod faunal assemblages to hydrology, lake level, and carbon cycling in a Jamaican marl lake: a palaeolimnological investigation

Abstract. Ostracod taxa from shallow freshwater lakes are sensitive to a range of limnological factors including temperature, hydrological habitat, lake level, and the distribution of aquatic plants. Ostracod assemblages preserved in Quaternary lake sediments can be used to reconstruct limnological change and are therefore potentially valuable palaeoenvironmental proxies. However, lack of autecological information about some taxa may limit the validity of such reconstructions. We use fossil ostracod assemblages recovered from radiocarbon-dated late Holocene sediments from Wallywash Great Pond, a small, shallow freshwater lake in southwestern Jamaica, to reconstruct limnological change over the past ∼ 1800 years. We circumvent ongoing taxonomic and ecological uncertainties associated with the identification of fossil ostracod taxa by drawing on observations of the ecology of ostracods found living in Jamaican water bodies. By combining this information with limnological data from the extant lake, and with sedimentological and isotopic data from the lake sediments, we show that a published interpretation of ostracod assemblages for the late Quaternary of Wallywash Great Pond is simplistic, at least for the late Holocene section of the sediment record. We conclude that changes in ostracod assemblages are linked to variations in the input of undersaturated groundwater to the northern part of the lake from which the core was recovered. These variations, which were driven by changes in the precipitation / evaporation ratio (effective moisture), also controlled sedimentation, with reduced effective moisture and a decline in undersaturated groundwater input favouring marl precipitation, whereas organic sediments are linked to increased effective moisture and enhanced groundwater input. Our findings suggest that the dramatic shifts in ostracod assemblages at this site are a complex response to changes in hydrology, sedimentology, and carbonate saturation rather than being a simple indicator of lake-level change. Combining ostracod assemblage data with the results of other palaeolimnological analyses also allows more detailed reconstructions to be made for this lake, and such a multiproxy approach is recommended for similar lakes elsewhere.

Green Ammonia Production in Stochastic Power Markets

Real assets in the energy market are subject to ecological uncertainty due to the penetration of renewables. We illustrate this point by analyzing electrolyzers, a class of assets that recently became the subject of large interest, as they lead to the production of the desirable green hydrogen and green ammonia. The latter has the advantage of being easily stored and has huge potential in decarbonizing both the fertilizer and shipping industries. We consider the optimization of green ammonia production with different types of electricity procurement in the context of stochastic power and ammonia markets, a necessary assumption to translate the features of renewable, hence intermittent, electricity. We emphasize the importance of using stochastic prices to model the volatile nature of the price dynamics effectively, illustrating the project risks that hedging activities can mitigate. This study shows the pivotal role of flexibility when dealing with fluctuating renewable production and volatile electricity prices to maximize profits and better manage risks.

Economic viability of a large vessel mesopelagic fishery under ecological uncertainty

Motivated by the global rise in demand for marine products, there is increased interest in exploitation of the mesopelagic zone. However, the feasibility of this potential fishery remains uncertain, partly due to limited biological data and knowledge on sustainability of exploitation, and due to questions related to its economic viability. Consequently, there is a demand for better insights into these factors before any commencement of a fishery. Here we use the DISPLACE individual-vessel based bio-economic model to evaluate economic and biological trade-offs of a fishery on Maurolicus muelleri and Benthosema glaciale, the main potential target fish species in the mesopelagic zone of the Northeast Atlantic. We found that a fish price between 1.6-5.0 €/kg is necessary for mesopelagic resources to assure a profitable mesopelagic fishery, which is twice that expected for species with similar fat content. These high fish prices are necessary to cover the high fuel consumption costs due to the distant fishing grounds. Furthermore, the distance of the fishing grounds makes the fuel tank capacity a limiting factor for the fishery. A first evaluation of preliminary harvest control strategies indicated that a low fishing mortality of F = 0.2 year-1 resulted in the highest potential profitability of the fishery. Restriction of gear mesh sizes did not significantly affect the profitability of the fishery. We show that the current ecological uncertainties, especially regarding the life-history, species-specific and spatio-temporal abundance and distribution estimates have a significant impact on the estimates of potential viability of the fishery. It is therefore of the utmost importance to gain more insights in those factors before investments are made into the development of such fishery.

The Navigate framework: How the ecosystem services and resilience concepts can help us navigate in the current crises

In the last decades, humanity has considerably altered the functioning of Earth, resulting in global and inter-related social, economic, and environmental crises. To address these crises, the concepts of ES and resilience look promising to understand the complexity of the social-ecological system (SES) and its dynamics. However, operational frameworks that bring together these two concepts are still lacking. We therefore propose the Navigate framework to guide the researchers and the managers in finding sustainable solutions, in other words safe and just strategies.This framework was built from a literature review, interviews with leading experts, and feedback from its implementation in a case study.The conceptual part of the Navigate framework illustrates the multiple interactions between nature and society, depicted by the ES, occurring at various scales. Following disturbances, the SES responds by either persisting, adapting or even transforming (i.e. three forms of resilience). The operational part of Navigate suggests six steps to follow in an iterative process: (1) define the system, (2) define the problem, the stakes and goals, (3) define the pathways, (4) assess the ES, (5) assess the resilience, and (6) design the action plan.The implementation of this framework to a case study demonstrated that together ES and resilience with a participatory process gave a comprehensive picture of the SES, essential to making sound sustainable decisions. Indeed, the integrated assessment of ES combining various complementary methods highlights the stakeholders’ needs and perspectives, the various forms of knowledge, the scales, and the interactions. Resilience broadened the analysis by understanding how the important drivers impacted the SES and its ES.In conclusion, the Navigate framework shows the way (i.e. which ES the stakeholders have requested) while considering the dynamic properties of the SES, amidst increasing social and ecological uncertainties, to navigate together toward sustainability.

Microhabitat conditions drive uncertainty of risk and shape neophobic responses in Trinidadian guppies, Poecilia reticulata.

In response to uncertain risks, prey may rely on neophobic phenotypes to reduce the costs associated with the lack of information regarding local conditions. Neophobia has been shown to be driven by information reliability, ambient risk and predator diversity, all of which shape uncertainty of risk. We similarly expect environmental conditions to shape uncertainty by interfering with information availability. In order to test how environmental variables might shape neophobic responses in Trinidadian guppies (Poecilia reticulata), we conducted an in situ field experiment of two high-predation risk guppy populations designed to determine how the 'average' and 'variance' of several environmental factors might influence the neophobic response to novel predator models and/or novel foraging patches. Our results suggest neophobia is shaped by water velocity, microhabitat complexity, pool width and depth, as well as substrate diversity and heterogeneity. Moreover, we found differential effects of the 'average' and 'variance' environmental variables on food- and predator-related neophobia. Our study highlights that assessment of neophobic drivers should consider predation risk, various microhabitat conditions and neophobia being tested. Neophobic phenotypes are expected to increase the probability of prey survival and reproductive success (i.e. fitness), and are therefore likely linked to population health and species survival. Understanding the drivers and consequences of uncertainty of risk is an increasingly pressing issue, as ecological uncertainty increases with the combined effects of climate change, anthropogenic disturbances and invasive species.

Coming-of-Age as Ecocitizens in Young Adult Climate Fiction: Saci Lloyd’s The Carbon Diaries 2015 and 2017

This article considers the threat of environmental destruction in YA dystopian imagination by providing a close reading of Saci Lloyd’s The Carbon Diaries 2015 (2008) and The Carbon Diaries 2017 (2010) that particularly considers whether these texts espouse radical social change and whether they offer hope or despair. First, the article demonstrates that Lloyd’s novels do not merely portray climate change as a backdrop for human drama, but rather attempt to disentangle the environmental crisis from the post-political sphere (Swyngedouw 2010) where humanity as a whole is under threat. While its protagonists learn to cope with ecological uncertainty and the multidimensional challenges of climate change, indeed, they also come to terms with the social and political dimensions of climate change. Second, the article claims that one of the most important features of these two novels is their attempt to explore the challenges faced by the younger generations when dealing with the contemporary climate challenge. Young people in fact bear a disproportionate burden of the environmental crises the world faces today and are subject to climate anxiety. Moreover, they are not only disproportionately impacted by climate change, but their agency and visions of the future are often placed under erasure discursively. Lloyd’s novels, instead, provide a young adult perspective on the uneven universality of climate change. Finally, the article suggests that the presence of utopian hope at the conclusion of the novels does not provide a consoling and comforting happy ending but helps readers to come to terms with an imperfect world. The article’s close reading of The Carbon Diaries 2015 and 2017, therefore, attempts to underscore the novels’ projection of a possible future where a radical systemic change is envisaged.

Embedding communication concepts in forecasting training increases students' understanding of ecological uncertainty

AbstractCommunicating and interpreting uncertainty in ecological model predictions is notoriously challenging, motivating the need for new educational tools, which introduce ecology students to core concepts in uncertainty communication. Ecological forecasting, an emerging approach to estimate future states of ecological systems with uncertainty, provides a relevant and engaging framework for introducing uncertainty communication to undergraduate students, as forecasts can be used as decision support tools for addressing real‐world ecological problems and are inherently uncertain. To provide critical training on uncertainty communication and introduce undergraduate students to the use of ecological forecasts for guiding decision‐making, we developed a hands‐on teaching module within the Macrosystems Environmental Data‐Driven Inquiry and Exploration (EDDIE; MacrosystemsEDDIE.org) educational program. Our module used an active learning approach by embedding forecasting activities in an R Shiny application to engage ecology students in introductory data science, ecological modeling, and forecasting concepts without needing advanced computational or programming skills. Pre‐ and post‐module assessment data from more than 250 undergraduate students enrolled in ecology, freshwater ecology, and zoology courses indicate that the module significantly increased students' ability to interpret forecast visualizations with uncertainty, identify different ways to communicate forecast uncertainty for diverse users, and correctly define ecological forecasting terms. Specifically, students were more likely to describe visual, numeric, and probabilistic methods of uncertainty communication following module completion. Students were also able to identify more benefits of ecological forecasting following module completion, with the key benefits of using forecasts for prediction and decision‐making most commonly described. These results show promise for introducing ecological model uncertainty, data visualizations, and forecasting into undergraduate ecology curricula via software‐based learning, which can increase students' ability to engage and understand complex ecological concepts.

(Un)making the manual scavenger

AbstractIn contemporary Indian cities, sewage infrastructures hold out the promise of liberal modernity. But they have also become sites for the reinvention of “manual scavenging,” a legally abolished caste practice that degrades and kills ostracized communities by exposing them to human excreta. Amid official underreporting, activists estimate that hundreds of workers, overwhelmingly Dalit (ex‐untouchable) and hired on a contractual basis, die every year while clearing Indian sewers. Yet not a single person has been convicted of abetting manual scavenging. Cases of sewage deaths in Bengaluru, touted as India's Silicon Valley, reveal that abettors often escape prosecution, framing manual scavenging as an accidental effect of unruly sewage flows. The transformation of overburdened urban sewerage into an alibi for caste violence demonstrates how caste and contractual liberalism share a necropolitical interest in displacing ecological uncertainty onto Dalit bodies.

Variability in billfish vertical distribution and fishing interactions driven by environmental conditions in the Eastern Tropical Pacific Ocean

Abstract Blue marlin (Makaira nigricans) and sailfish (Istiophorus platypterus) are ecologically important predators and valuable species throughout the world’s recreational, commercial, and subsistence fisheries. Comparing multi-species vertical habitat use can inform ecological uncertainties such as inter-species competition, as well as relative vulnerabilities to fishing activities. In this study, we identified key differences in both depth use and which environmental variables drive these selections, which highlights the variability in the catchability both as target species in recreational fisheries and bycatch in commercial fisheries. To understand these two species’ vertical habitat use, we examined depth profiles from 26 sailfish and 48 blue marlin tagged with pop-up satellite archival tags deployed in the Eastern Tropical Pacific Ocean. While both species are surface-oriented, we found evidence of vertical niche partitioning where sailfish spend more time at deeper depths than blue marlin. Blue marlin recorded an average mean depth of 18.5 m (±10.8 m) during daytime and 5.2 m (±5.5 m) at nighttime (Figure 31a), while sailfish recorded an average mean depth of 23.6 m (±11.1 m) during daytime and 6.45 m (±4.64 m) at nighttime. Generalized additive mixed models fitted to predict mean and max depth revealed sea level anomaly (SLA), oxygen, sea surface temperature, and mixed layer depth as significant predictors of vertical habitat use for both species. We also examined catch logs from three recreational fishing lodges in Central America to understand the influence of environmental conditions on billfish sightings per unit effort. For blue marlin and sailfish, SLA was a significant predictor in each of the four depth models (mean day, mean night, max day, max night). SLA was the variable with highest percent deviance explained for all four sailfish depth models and three of the four blue marlin depth models and had a positive relationship with all response variables for all four blue marlin depth models and three sailfish depth models (mean daytime, max daytime, max nighttime), where higher positive SLA values were associated with deeper depth responses.

Optimal management decisions are robust to unknown dynamics in an amphibian metapopulation plagued by disease

AbstractIdentifying conservation actions to recover threatened species can be challenging due to many ecological uncertainties. For example, major threats to a species' conservation are commonly known or suspected, but the specific impacts on population or metapopulation dynamics can be uncertain. This is frequently the case with emerging infectious diseases, including chytridiomycosis, a global driver of amphibian population declines caused by the fungal pathogens Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd) and Batrachochytrium salamandrivorans. While these diseases are known to cause amphibian declines and extirpations, the mechanisms of their landscape‐scale spread are still largely unknown. Such uncertainty can lead to inaction which may jeopardize timely recovery of a species. Decision analysis is a pragmatic approach to making transparent and defensible decisions while dealing with uncertainties. We investigated whether optimal actions aimed at recovering boreal toad (Anaxyrus boreas boreas) metapopulations in the southern Rocky Mountains are robust to the unknown dynamics of Bd spread using value of information and regret analyses. Value of information is a decision‐analytic tool for calculating the value of new information in terms of performance on management objectives, while regret measures the cost of acting under incorrect information. We further conducted a stochastic sensitivity analysis to identify the relative effects of metapopulation parameters on system dynamics. We found optimal actions were robust to the unknown dynamics of Bd spread. While boreal toad breeding occurrence is highly sensitive to Bd distribution, the optimal decision is not. Resolving the unknown dynamics of Bd spread would lead to a minimal gain of less than one breeding toad subpopulation at the end of 50 years, given the currently available management actions. Applying a decision‐analytic framework coupled with value of information and regret analyses can help frame how uncertainties affect decisions in a way that empowers decision makers.

Conversations with GC Harcourt on Social Justice in the Face of Economic and Ecological Uncertainty

AbstractIn this article, I share insights from the conversations I have enjoyed with my father GC Harcourt on gender, social justice, and economic policy in the last years of his long and fruitful life. Our conversations reflected our overlapping but at times divergent responses to the disruptions caused by environmental, climate, health, economic, and political crises. The article reflects on our conversations around population, alternatives, the pervasiveness of racism in Australia, and the recurring questions of how to bring about change and how to continue despite political disappointments. The article teases out in a gentle way how my perspective, as a feminist political ecologist, diverged from GC Harcourt’s views, and what our conversations together suggest as important challenges to overcome as we confront the current crises of modern capitalism.

Lateness, Asymmetricity, and Ecological Uncertainty in W.G. Sebald’s The Rings of Saturn

This paper analyzes W.G. Sebald’s novel The Rings of Saturn as a literary exploration of ecology and post-historicity. By examining Sebald’s narrative through Timothy Morton’s revision of Hegelian art history as “Asymmetricity,” a prolonged period of post-human Romanticism, Sebald’s vision of history is positioned after the end of a sense of historical progress, a period of ruin and decline where nature begins to reclaim the landscape and history itself. This condition, I argue, is one instance in an ever-repeating cycle of historical and ecological “ends,” whose foil is the concept of ecological melancholy. Ultimately this analysis is a case study in how literature of the Anthropocene so preoccupied with the notion of the “end” encourages narrative estrangement from the world, an estrangement I seek to suture – though not entirely heal – through the recognition of a new historical teleology of engagement with the ecological melancholy’s potential for rebuilding.

Behavioural and Welfare Analysis of an Intermediary in Biodiversity Offset Markets

This paper provides a behavioural and welfare analysis of an intermediary in biodiversity offset markets. These markets are characterised by high information requirements and transaction costs, threatening economic efficiency and even biodiversity outcomes. Specialised intermediaries facilitate trading by providing information and brokering services. By buying, holding and selling offset credits from storage, the intermediary can decrease both financial and ecological risks in the market. As a drawback, the intermediary may exploit market power upstream or downstream due to ecological features of the offset market. Intermediaries decrease the trading parties’ transaction costs by offering specialised information, reduce uncertainty, and decrease the costs of offsetting by increasing liquidity in the market and offering certain offset credits. When the intermediary has market power, selling and buying prices deviate from the competitive equilibrium. This welfare loss may be lower than the loss from transaction costs and trade ratios in decentralised trade, even in the case of the intermediary having both monopoly and monopsony power. The intermediary is the most useful when trade ratios are high and when the intermediary stores mature credits, which eliminates ecological uncertainty and thereby offers cost savings for developers, and may result in a higher level of biodiversity.

Risk management for the functionality component of an agricultural enterprise's decision-making support information system

Ensuring food security and economic and social stability is a national issue for every state. The research examines the functional component of the information system model for supporting decision-making in the agrarian sphere in environmental uncertainty. This component includes those mathematical models and methods that ensure the functioning of the information system for supporting decision-making in the agricultural sphere in ecological uncertainty. The main assumptions of the study are that no activity can be avoided entirely, and there are no risks that cannot be managed. Risk management is considered in more detail as a process of taking measures aimed at ensuring an acceptable risk. A mathematical model of agricultural enterprise management is formalized, in which unclear input parameters, namely environmental and economic circumstances, are risk factors. Four stages of risk management are considered: identification, analysis, development of management measures, and operational risk management. The primary external and internal sources of risk in the activity of an agricultural enterprise have been identified. An algorithm for risk analysis is proposed, which consists of seven steps. A quantitative method implementing the risk analysis algorithm has also been developed. A fuzzy profit function of an agricultural enterprise is constructed. It is proposed to calculate the risk as a root mean square deviation. The method of risk management consists in minimizing risks.

Right connection, right insight engaging private estate managers on woodland expansion issues in times of uncertainty

Woodland expansion and related targets are central to the Scottish Forestry Strategy (2019–2029). However, planting rates over the last decade have mostly fallen short of targets and, with the majority of Scottish land in private ownership, estates could play an influential role in achieving these targets. The current political (e.g. Brexit) and ecological (e.g. climate and biodiversity emergencies) uncertainty impacting the UK presents both opportunities and potential threats to the forestry sector and environmental policies. This research used walking interviews with estate managers to gain insights into perceptions of forestry and woodland culture on private sporting estates. Co-planning of new planting areas involved discussions with a mixture of estate owners, factors and land managers from neighbouring estates, along with the researcher. The co-planning process provided scope to navigate the uncertainty between estate priorities, woodland expansion targets and wider management issues by exploring the local culture and land capability from the perspective of individual land managers. A range of constraints and opportunities were identified including the influence of deeply embedded perceptions of past and current woodland creation schemes that continue to impact the estates, market instability, and the desire to design and create beneficial integrated deer and amenity areas. These are counterbalanced with a clear passion for trees among some managers, but a relatively low interest in extensive woodland management, which was underpinned by a widespread lack of in-house forestry knowledge. The woodland planning exercise resulted in managers identifying explicit areas for potential woodland expansion on every estate, favouring mixed native woodlands with limited productive objectives. Woodfuel production was viewed as an output from early woodland thinnings with the potential to increase short-term profitability and offset management costs. This paper highlights that strengthening personal connections between land managers and woodland management, through knowledge building and contact with up-to-date forestry knowledge from a trusted provider, could further opportunities for expanding and enhancing woodland culture, and become a more significant part of the rationale that drives decision-making. Facilitating local knowledge of the estate and local community involvement in woodland design and planning, even on a small-scale, offers potential to support the expansion and integration of woodland on some private estates that have lost or reduced woodland culture.

Sustainable Management of a Renewable Fishery Resource with Depensation Dynamics from a Control Systems Perspective

Human societies are exploiting natural renewable sources such as fisheries, forests, groundwater basins, rivers, and soil at an increasing intensity. Around the world, these resources are being managed by various institutions or governments. One of the challenges faced by institutions is to develop strategies and policies to effectively manage these renewable resources under social and ecological uncertainties, disturbances, policy implementation difficulties, and measurement errors. In this paper, a fishery is considered as an example and the problem of managing a fishery is approached from a control systems perspective. The justification behind this approach is due to the observation that the problem of managing a renewable resource can be posed as a control systems problem and that the discipline of control systems possesses tools and methods to deal with model uncertainties, external disturbances, measurement errors and implementation issues. For the fishery, a depensation type population dynamics model is considered. Depensatory models are used in social/ecological systems in order to model dynamics of certain species of fish populations. An optimal control strategy based on Pontryagin’s Maximum Principle is derived and its sustainability and robustness properties with respect to parametric uncertainties, measurement errors and disturbances are examined. Finally, a sub-optimal but more robust control strategy is proposed and its robustness properties are provided. The main objective of the paper is to show that a control systems engineering approach can be applied to a social-ecological problem and it can provide easy to implement management strategies, insight, and guidance into the management of renewable resources.

Assessing effects of predator density and diversity on neophobia in Trinidadian guppies

Neophobic predator avoidance, where prey actively avoid novel stimuli, is thought to allow prey to cope with the inability to predict predation risk (i.e. uncertainty) while reducing the costs associated with learning. Recent studies suggest that neophobia is elicited as a response to unpredictable and elevated mean predation risk, and is linked to experience with diverse novel cues. However, no research has disentangled the effects of predator density and diversity on neophobia. We conditioned Trinidadian guppies (Poecilia reticulata) to high- or low-diversity predator model treatments paired with high, intermediate, or low concentrations of conspecific alarm cues as a proxy for predator density. We tested behavioural responses to a novel stimulus vs. a water control to determine differences in neophobia among treatments. We found that neophobic shoaling behaviour was shaped by mean risk (predator density). However both density and diversity shaped neophobic freezing, and to a weaker extent, neophobic area use. Our research suggests that predator diversity might elicit neophobic responses in guppies, but only when mean risk is high enough. The relationship between neophobia and components of predation risk is becoming increasingly relevant as ecological uncertainty becomes more prevalent with increasing climate change, anthropogenic impacts, and invasive species.