Risk management for the functionality component of an agricultural enterprise's decision-making support information system

Abstract

Ensuring food security and economic and social stability is a national issue for every state. The research examines the functional component of the information system model for supporting decision-making in the agrarian sphere in environmental uncertainty. This component includes those mathematical models and methods that ensure the functioning of the information system for supporting decision-making in the agricultural sphere in ecological uncertainty. The main assumptions of the study are that no activity can be avoided entirely, and there are no risks that cannot be managed. Risk management is considered in more detail as a process of taking measures aimed at ensuring an acceptable risk. A mathematical model of agricultural enterprise management is formalized, in which unclear input parameters, namely environmental and economic circumstances, are risk factors. Four stages of risk management are considered: identification, analysis, development of management measures, and operational risk management. The primary external and internal sources of risk in the activity of an agricultural enterprise have been identified. An algorithm for risk analysis is proposed, which consists of seven steps. A quantitative method implementing the risk analysis algorithm has also been developed. A fuzzy profit function of an agricultural enterprise is constructed. It is proposed to calculate the risk as a root mean square deviation. The method of risk management consists in minimizing risks.