Easterly Quasi-biennial Oscillation Research Articles

Impact of the quasi-biennial oscillation on predictability of the Madden–Julian oscillation

The Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) during boreal winter is observed to be stronger during the easterly phase of the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) than during the westerly phase, with the QBO zonal wind at 50 hPa leading enhanced MJO activity by about 1 month. Using 30 years of retrospective forecasts from the POAMA coupled model forecast system, we show that this strengthened MJO activity during the easterly QBO phase translates to improved prediction of the MJO and its convective anomalies across the tropical Indo-Pacific region by about 8 days lead time relative to that during westerly QBO phases. These improvements in forecast skill result not just from the fact that forecasts initialized with stronger MJO events, such as occurs during QBO easterly phases, have greater skill, but also from the more persistent behaviour of the MJO for a similar initial amplitude during QBO easterly phases as compared to QBO westerly phases. The QBO is thus an untapped source of subseasonal predictability that can provide a window of opportunity for improved prediction of global climate.

The tropical tropopause inversion layer: variability and modulation by equatorial waves

Abstract. The tropical tropopause layer (TTL) acts as a transition layer between the troposphere and the stratosphere over several kilometers, where air has both tropospheric and stratospheric properties. Within this region, a fine-scale feature is located: the tropopause inversion layer (TIL), which consists of a sharp temperature inversion at the tropopause and the corresponding high static stability values right above, which theoretically affect the dispersion relations of atmospheric waves like Rossby or inertia–gravity waves and hamper stratosphere–troposphere exchange (STE). Therefore, the TIL receives increasing attention from the scientific community, mainly in the extratropics so far. Our goal is to give a detailed picture of the properties, variability and forcings of the tropical TIL, with special emphasis on small-scale equatorial waves and the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO).We use high-resolution temperature profiles from the COSMIC satellite mission, i.e., ∼ 2000 measurements per day globally, between 2007 and 2013, to derive TIL properties and to study the fine-scale structures of static stability in the tropics. The situation at near tropopause level is described by the 100 hPa horizontal wind divergence fields, and the vertical structure of the QBO is provided by the equatorial winds at all levels, both from the ERA-Interim reanalysis.We describe a new feature of the equatorial static stability profile: a secondary stability maximum below the zero wind line within the easterly QBO wind regime at about 20–25 km altitude, which is forced by the descending westerly QBO phase and gives a double-TIL-like structure. In the lowermost stratosphere, the TIL is stronger with westerly winds. We provide the first evidence of a relationship between the tropical TIL strength and near-tropopause divergence, with stronger (weaker) TIL with near-tropopause divergent (convergent) flow, a relationship analogous to that of TIL strength with relative vorticity in the extratropics.To elucidate possible enhancing mechanisms of the tropical TIL, we quantify the signature of the different equatorial waves on the vertical structure of static stability in the tropics. All waves show, on average, maximum cold anomalies at the thermal tropopause, warm anomalies above and a net TIL enhancement close to the tropopause. The main drivers are Kelvin, inertia–gravity and Rossby waves. We suggest that a similar wave modulation will exist at mid- and polar latitudes from the extratropical wave modes.

Poleward transport variability in the Northern Hemisphere during final stratospheric warmings simulated by CESM(WACCM)

AbstractObservational studies of Arctic stratospheric final warmings have shown that tropical/subtropical air masses can be advected to high latitudes and remain confined within a long‐lived “frozen‐in” anticyclone (FrIAC) for several months. It was suggested that the frequency of FrIACs may have increased since 2000 and that their interannual variability may be modulated by (i) the occurrence of major stratospheric warmings (mSSWs) in the preceding winter and (ii) the phase of the quasi‐biennial oscillation (QBO). In this study, we tested these observational‐based hypotheses for the first time using a chemistry climate model. Three 145 year sensitivity experiments were performed with the National Center of Atmospheric Research's Community Earth System Model (CESM): one control experiment including only natural variability, one with an extreme greenhouse gas emission scenario, and one without the QBO in the tropical stratosphere. In comparison with reanalysis, the model simulates a realistic frequency and characteristics of FrIACs, which occur under an abrupt and early winter‐to‐summer stratospheric circulation transition, driven by enhanced planetary wave activity. Furthermore, the model results support the suggestion that the development of FrIACs is favored by an easterly QBO in the middle stratosphere and by the absence of mSSWs during the preceding winter. The lower stratospheric persistence of background dynamical state anomalies induced by deep mSSWs leads to less favorable conditions for planetary waves to enter the high‐latitude stratosphere in April, which in turn decreases the probability of FrIAC development. Our model results do not suggest that climate change conditions (RCP8.5 scenario) influence FrIAC occurrences.

Effect of geomagnetic activity on the northern annular mode: QBO dependence and the Holton-Tan relationship

Mutually conflicting results have been presented in earlier studies on the long-term relation of geomagnetic activity (GA) and the winter northern annular mode (NAM) and its modulation by quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO). Some studies have found a stronger positive relation in the easterly phase of the QBO, while in other studies a stronger positive relation was found in the westerly phase of the QBO. Using QBO reconstruction from the beginning of the twentieth century we find that the QBO modulation of the GA-NAM relation is temporally variable, which explains the earlier, seemingly differing results. Positive relation is found to be valid in the easterly QBO phase at 30 hPa for the whole twentieth century. We also find that the QBO at 30 hPa better represents the Holton-Tan relation for the surface circulation and that the Holton-Tan relation is only observed during early/mid winter, while an anti-Holton-Tan relation is found in the late winter for strong geomagnetic activity. These results emphasize the systematic response of NAM to particle precipitation during the entire twentieth century and underline the importance of considering the preconditioning of the atmosphere when studying the solar-related effects upon climate.

Southern Hemisphere Summer Mesopause Responses to El Niño–Southern Oscillation

Abstract In the Southern Hemisphere (SH) polar region, satellite observations reveal a significant upper-mesosphere cooling and a lower-thermosphere warming during warm ENSO events in December. An opposite pattern is observed in the tropical mesopause region. The observed upper-mesosphere cooling agrees with a climate model simulation. Analysis of the simulation suggests that enhanced planetary wave (PW) dissipation in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) high-latitude stratosphere during El Niño strengthens the Brewer–Dobson circulation and cools the equatorial stratosphere. This increases the magnitude of the SH stratosphere meridional temperature gradient and thus causes the anomalous stratospheric easterly zonal wind and early breakdown of the SH stratospheric polar vortex. The resulting perturbation to gravity wave (GW) filtering causes anomalous SH mesospheric eastward GW forcing and polar upwelling and cooling. In addition, constructive inference of ENSO and quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) could lead to stronger stratospheric easterly zonal wind anomalies at the SH high latitudes in November and December and early breakdown of the SH stratospheric polar vortex during warm ENSO events in the easterly QBO phase (defined by the equatorial zonal wind at ~25 hPa). This would in turn cause much more SH mesospheric eastward GW forcing and much colder polar temperatures, and hence it would induce an early onset time of SH summer polar mesospheric clouds (PMCs). The opposite mechanism occurs during cold ENSO events in the westerly QBO phase. This implies that ENSO together with QBO could significantly modulate the breakdown time of SH stratospheric polar vortex and the onset time of SH PMC.

Stratospheric Aerosols from Major Volcanic Eruptions: A Composition-Climate Model Study of the Aerosol Cloud Dispersal and e-folding Time

Large explosive volcanic eruptions are capable of injecting considerable amounts of particles and sulfur gases above the tropopause, causing large increases in stratospheric aerosols. Five major volcanic eruptions after 1960 (i.e., Agung, St. Helens, El Chichón, Nevado del Ruiz and Pinatubo) have been considered in a numerical study conducted with a composition-climate coupled model including an aerosol microphysics code for aerosol formation and growth. Model results are compared between an ensemble of numerical simulations including volcanic aerosols and their radiative effects (VE) and a reference simulations ensemble (REF) with no radiative impact of the volcanic aerosols. Differences of VE-REF show enhanced diabatic heating rates; increased stratospheric temperatures and mean zonal westerly winds; increased planetary wave amplitude; and tropical upwelling. The impact on stratospheric upwelling is found to be larger when the volcanically perturbed stratospheric aerosol is confined to the tropics, as tends to be the case for eruptions which were followed by several months with easterly shear of the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO), e.g., the Pinatubo case. Compared to an eruption followed by a period of westerly QBO, such easterly QBO eruptions are quite different, with meridional transport to mid- and high-latitudes occurring later, and at higher altitude, with a consequent decrease in cross-tropopause removal from the stratosphere, and therefore longer decay timescale. Comparing the model-calculated e-folding time of the volcanic aerosol mass during the first year after the eruptions, an increase is found from 8.1 and 10.3 months for El Chichón and Agung (QBO westerly shear), to 14.6 and 30.7 months for Pinatubo and Ruiz (QBO easterly shear). The corresponding e-folding time of the global-mean radiative flux changes goes from 9.1 and 8.0 months for El Chichón and Agung, to 28.7 and 24.5 months for Pinatubo and Ruiz.

Tropospheric QBO–ENSO Interactions and Differences between the Atlantic and Pacific

Abstract This study investigates the interaction of the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) and the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in the troposphere separately for the North Pacific and North Atlantic region. Three 145-yr model simulations with NCAR’s Community Earth System Model Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (CESM-WACCM) are analyzed where only natural (no anthropogenic) forcings are considered. These long simulations allow the authors to obtain statistically reliable results from an exceptional large number of cases for each combination of the QBO (westerly and easterly) and ENSO phases (El Niño and La Niña). Two different analysis methods were applied to investigate where nonlinearity might play a role in QBO–ENSO interactions. The analyses reveal that the stratospheric equatorial QBO anomalies extend down to the troposphere over the North Pacific during Northern Hemisphere winter only during La Niña and not during El Niño events. The Aleutian low is deepened during QBO westerly (QBOW) as compared to QBO easterly (QBOE) conditions, and the North Pacific subtropical jet is shifted northward during La Niña. In the North Atlantic, the interaction of QBOW with La Niña conditions (QBOE with El Niño) results in a positive (negative) North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) pattern. For both regions, nonlinear interactions between the QBO and ENSO might play a role. The results provide the potential to enhance the skill of tropospheric seasonal predictions in the North Atlantic and North Pacific region.

Interannual and intraseasonal variability of stratospheric dynamics and stratosphere–troposphere coupling during northern winter

The UK Met Office reanalysis data have been used to investigate the interannual and intraseasonal variability of the stratospheric dynamics and thermal structure. The results obtained show that the maximum of interannual variability of the mean zonal flow associated with the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) is observed at the altitude of about 30km. It is shown that there is a statistically significant influence of the QBO phase on the extratropical stratosphere, the so-called, Holton–Tan effect. The results of data analysis show that the conditions under the easterly QBO phase are more favorable for the development of the sudden stratospheric warmings (SSW). The statistical analysis of 15 major SSW observed during two last decades has been performed. The obtained results demonstrate that in recent years internal processes associated with nonlinear interactions of stationary planetary waves (SPW) with the mean flow played a dominant role. It is shown that the first enhancement of the SPW1 in the upper stratosphere takes place because of an amplification of nonlinear interactions between this wave and the mean flow. This enhancement is accompanied by a subsequent increase in the wave activity flux from the stratosphere into the troposphere with further redistribution of wave activity in the horizontal plane. Then, an increase of the upward flux from the troposphere into the stratosphere in another region occurs. The secondary enhancement of the planetary wave activity in the stratosphere is accompanied by the heating of the polar region and the weakening, or even reversal of the stratospheric jet. Additionally to the well-known result that meridional refraction of SPW to the polar region in stratosphere is one of the preconditions of development SSW, the nonlinear wave–wave and wave–mean flow interactions can play an important role before and during SSW. It is shown that the upper stratosphere can be considered as the region where SPW2 is generated during SSW.

Impact of stratospheric major warmings and the quasi‐biennial oscillation on the variability of stratospheric water vapor

AbstractBased on simulations with the Chemical Lagrangian Model of the Stratosphere for the 1979–2013 period, driven by the European Centre for Medium‐Range Weather Forecasts ERA‐Interim reanalysis, we analyze the impact of the quasi‐biennial oscillation (QBO) and of Major Stratospheric Warmings (MWs) on the amount of water vapor entering the stratosphere during boreal winter. The amplitude of H2O variation related to the QBO amounts to 0.5 ppmv. The additional effect of MWs reaches its maximum about 2–4 weeks after the central date of the MW and strongly depends on the QBO phase. Whereas during the easterly QBO phase there is a pronounced drying of about 0.3 ppmv about 3 weeks after the MW, the impact of the MW during the westerly QBO phase is smaller (about 0.2 ppmv) and more diffusely spread over time. We suggest that the MW‐associated enhanced dehydration combined with a higher frequency of MWs after the year 2000 may have contributed to the lower stratospheric water vapor after 2000.

Generation of a Quasi-Biennial Oscillation in an NWP Model Using a Stochastic Gravity Wave Drag Parameterization

Abstract Many operational numerical weather prediction (NWP) systems now extend into the stratosphere and are beginning to be used to generate forecasts beyond conventional 5–10-day periods out to seasonal time scales. Past observational and modeling studies have shown that the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) in equatorial stratospheric winds can play an important role in stratosphere–troposphere dynamical coupling over these longer time scales. Consequently, stratosphere-resolving NWP models used to generate seasonal forecasts should contain the necessary physics to generate and maintain the QBO. This study describes several key modifications that were necessary to produce a QBO in a high-altitude NWP model, which include an increase in model vertical resolution, implementation of a computationally efficient stochastic gravity wave drag parameterization, and reductions in the amount of horizontal and vertical diffusion in the stratosphere. Results from a 10-yr free-running model simulation with these modifications show that the westerly QBO phase produces lower temperatures and stronger westerly flow in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) winter polar stratosphere compared to the easterly QBO phase. Ensembles of 120-day simulations over the December–March period show that these modifications replace persistent easterly flow in the equatorial lower stratosphere with a more realistic transition from easterly to westerly flow. The resulting changes in planetary wave propagation produce a statistically significant response in the dynamics of the NH extratropical stratosphere consistent with the Holton–Tan relationship. The westerly shift in equatorial winds also produces a significant response in the NH extratropical troposphere, where the sea level pressure differences in winter resemble the positive phase of the northern annular mode.

Quasi-biennial oscillation of the tropical stratospheric aerosol layer

Abstract. This study describes how aerosol in an aerosol-coupled climate model of the middle atmosphere is influenced by the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) during times when the stratosphere is largely unperturbed by volcanic material. In accordance with satellite observations, the vertical extent of the stratospheric aerosol layer in the tropics is modulated by the QBO by up to 6 km, or ~ 35% of its mean vertical extent between 100–7 hPa (about 16–33 km). Its largest vertical extent lags behind the occurrence of strongest QBO westerlies. The largest reduction lags behind maximum QBO easterlies. Strongest QBO signals in the aerosol surface area (30 %) and number densities (up to 100% e.g. in the Aitken mode) are found in regions where aerosol evaporates, that is above the 10 hPa pressure level (~ 31 km). Positive modulations are found in the QBO easterly shear, negative modulations in the westerly shear. Below 10 hPa, in regions where the aerosol mixing ratio is largest (50–20 hPa, or ~ 20–26 km), in most of the analysed parameters only moderate statistically significant QBO signatures (< 10%) have been found. QBO signatures in the model prognostic aerosol mixing ratio are significant at the 95% confidence level throughout the tropical stratosphere where modelled mixing ratios exceed 0.1 ppbm. In some regions of the tropical lower stratosphere the QBO signatures in other analysed parameters are partly not statistically significant. Peak-to-peak amplitudes of the QBO signature in the prognostic mixing ratios are up to twice as large as seasonal variations in the region where aerosols evaporate and between 70–30 hPa. Between the tropical tropopause and 70 hPa the QBO signature is relatively weak and seasonal variations dominate the variability of the simulated Junge layer. QBO effects on the upper lid of the tropical aerosol layer turn the quasi-static balance between processes maintaining the layer's vertical extent into a cyclic balance when considering this dominant mode of atmospheric variability. Global aerosol-interactive models without a QBO are only able to simulate the quasi-static balance state. To assess the global impact of stratospheric aerosols on climate processes, those partly nonlinear relationships between the QBO and stratospheric aerosols have to be taken into account.

Northern Hemisphere mid‐winter vortex‐displacement and vortex‐split stratospheric sudden warmings: Influence of the Madden‐Julian Oscillation and Quasi‐Biennial Oscillation

AbstractWe investigate the connection between the equatorial Madden‐Julian Oscillation (MJO) and different types of the Northern Hemisphere mid‐winter major stratospheric sudden warmings (SSWs), i.e., vortex‐displacement and vortex‐split SSWs. The MJO‐SSW relationship for vortex‐split SSWs is stronger than that for vortex‐displacement SSWs, as a result of the stronger and more coherent eastward propagating MJOs before vortex‐split SSWs than those before vortex‐displacement SSWs. Composite analysis indicates that both the intensity and propagation features of MJO may influence the MJO‐related circulation pattern at high latitudes and the type of SSWs. A pronounced Quasi‐Biennial Oscillation (QBO) dependence is found for vortex‐displacement and vortex‐split SSWs, with vortex‐displacement (‐split) SSWs occurring preferentially in easterly (westerly) QBO phases. The lagged composites suggest that the MJO‐related anomalies in the Arctic are very likely initiated when the MJO‐related convection is active over the equatorial Indian Ocean (around the MJO phase 3). Further analysis suggests that the QBO may modulate the MJO‐related wave disturbances via its influence on the upper tropospheric subtropical jet. As a result, the MJO‐related circulation pattern in the Arctic tends to be wave number‐one/wave number‐two ~25–30 days following phase 3 (i.e., approximately phases 7–8, when the MJO‐related convection is active over the western Pacific) during easterly/westerly QBO phases, which resembles the circulation pattern associated with vortex‐displacement/vortex‐split SSWs.

Examining the stratospheric response to the solar cycle in a coupled WACCM simulation with an internally generated QBO

Abstract. The response of the stratosphere to the combined interaction of the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) and the solar cycle in ultraviolet (UV) radiation, and the influence of the solar cycle on the QBO, are investigated using the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM). Transient simulations were performed beginning in 1850 that included fully interactive ocean and chemistry model components, observed greenhouse gas concentrations, volcanic eruptions, and an internally generated QBO. Over the full length of the simulations we do not find a solar cycle modulation of either the QBO period or amplitude. We also do not find a persistent wintertime UV response in polar stratospheric geopotential heights when stratifying by the QBO phase. Over individual ~40 year periods of the simulation, a statistically significant correlation is sometimes found between the northern polar geopotential heights in February and UV irradiance during the QBO's westerly phase. However, the sign of the correlation varies over the simulation, and is never significant during the QBO's easterly phase. Complementing this is the analysis of four simulations using a QBO prescribed to match observations over the period 1953–2005. Again, no consistent correlation is evident. In contrast, over the same period, meteorological reanalysis shows a strong positive correlation during the QBO westerly phase, although it weakens as the period is extended. The results raise the possibility that the observed polar solar–QBO correlation may have occurred because of the relatively short data record and the presence of additional external forcings rather than a direct solar–QBO interaction.

Mechanisms for the Holton-Tan relationship and its decadal variation

This study provides a mechanistic explanation of why the Holton-Tan (HT) effect, a phenomenon in which the strength of northern stratospheric winter polar vortex synchronizes with the equatorial quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO), was disrupted in the middle to late winters of 1978–1997. In line with recent reassessments of the HT effect, we find that an easterly QBO in the lower stratosphere leads to the formation of a midlatitude wave guide that enhances both the upward propagating planetary waves from the troposphere into the lower stratosphere (~35–50°N, 30–200 hPa) and the northward wave propagation in the upper to middle stratosphere (~35–60°N, 20–5 hPa). This enhanced poleward refraction of planetary waves results in a more disturbed polar vortex, causing the HT effect. The weakening of the HT effect in 1978–1997 was associated with a broader and strengthened polar vortex in November to January. The divergence of wave activity generated by eddies growing within the vortex provided the momentum source and allowed wave activity to propagate meridionally away from the vortex; this interfered with the QBO modulation of planetary wave propagation and led to a weakening of the HT effect during this period. The stronger than average polar vortex in 1978–1997 was associated with a vertically coherent cooling signature over northeastern Asia in the stratosphere. We suggest that a change of stratospheric circulation and/or a change of the stratosphere-troposphere coupling were the main causes for the disrupted HT effect in 1978–1997.

Dynamic Seasonal Transition from Winter to Summer in the Northern Hemisphere Stratosphere

This study applied the modified spatial similarity coefficient method to define the seasonal transition(ST) from winter to summer in the extratropical stratosphere of the Northern Hemisphere.The features of the ST were examined using European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts(ECMWF) Interim reanalysis data;and the results showed that the time and duration of the ST,which is affected by the activity of planetary waves(PW) in the stratosphere,largely depended on the geophysical locations.This study also investigated the interannual variability of the ST and its relationship with stratospheric sudden warming(SSW) and the quasi-biennial oscillation(QBO).It was shown that the late-onset SSW events(after 22 January) are close to the start of the ST.An easterly(westerly) QBO hastens(delays) the onset of the ST in high and low latitudes,whereas it delays(hastens) the ST in midlatitudes.The duration of the ST is significantly affected by the QBO.The influence of SSW and the QBO have different significance in different latitudes,so they are both important and irreplaceable factors.

ENSO influence on QBO modulations of the tropical tropopause

AbstractWe examine the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) influence on the quasi‐biennial oscillation (QBO) modulation of the cold‐point tropopause (CPT) temperatures. An analysis of approximately five decades (in most cases 1950s to near‐present) of radiosonde data from 10 near‐equatorial stations, distributed along the Equator, shows that the ENSO influence on the QBO is quite zonally symmetric. At all stations analyzed, the QBO has larger amplitude and longer period during La Niña conditions than during El Niño over this total period. We also show that as a consequence of the ENSO influences on QBO periods and amplitudes, the differences between the warmer CPT temperatures during QBO westerly shear conditions and colder temperatures during QBO easterly shear conditions are larger during La Niña than during El Niño for all stations for the entire period considered here. This strengthens earlier findings that the greatest dehydration of air entering the stratosphere from the troposphere occurs during the winter under La Niña and easterly QBO conditions. In addition, stratosphere/troposphere wind and temperature profiles are derived to establish the degree of QBO downward penetration necessary to influence zonal winds and temperatures in the upper troposphere.

QBO‐dependent relation between electron precipitation and wintertime surface temperature

Recent research has shown that energetic particle precipitation into the upper atmosphere can change ion and neutral chemistry, e.g., by enhancing NOxconcentration in the mesosphere, which, in turn, can affect stratospheric ozone balance under appropriate conditions. It has been suggested that this may affect the surface temperatures at high latitudes by modulating tropospheric circulation. Motivated by such results, we compare here the wintertime energetic electron precipitation (EEP) with North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and surface air temperature (SAT) in the Northern Hemisphere. We use the recently recalibrated energetic electron data from the Medium Energy Proton and Electron Detector instrument of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)/Polar Orbiting Environment Satellites in two energy ranges (30–100 keV and 100–300 keV), the NAO index from NOAA, and the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies surface temperature analysis for years 1980–2010. We find a statistically significant correlation between EEP and the NAO index and also between EEP and SAT in certain geographic regions. The strongest negative correlation is found in Northeast Canada/Greenland, while the strongest positive correlation is found in North Siberia/Barents Sea, in agreement with similar studies using global geomagnetic activity as a proxy for particle precipitation. We find higher correlation when the two winters (1984/1985 and 2003/2004) of unprecedentedly strong sudden stratospheric warmings are excluded. We also find that the different phases of quasi‐biennial oscillation (QBO; observed at 30 hPa) lead to dramatically different correlation patterns, with easterly QBO producing considerably stronger and spatially wider correlation and larger temperature response than westerly QBO.

Seasonal forecasts of northern hemisphere winter 2009/10

Northern hemisphere winter 2009/10 was exceptional for atmospheric circulation: the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index was the lowest on record for over a century. This contributed to cold conditions over large areas of Eurasia and North America. Here we use two versions of the Met Office GloSea4 seasonal forecast system to investigate the predictability of this exceptional winter. The first is the then operational version of GloSea4, which uses a low top model and successfully predicted a negative NAO in forecasts produced in September, October and November 2009. The second uses a new high top model, which better simulates sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs). This is particularly relevant for 2009/10 due to its unusual combination of a strong El Niño and an easterly quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) phase, favouring SSW development. SSWs are shown to play an influential role in surface conditions, producing a stronger sea level pressure signal and improving predictions of the 2009/10 winter.

Does the Holton–Tan Mechanism Explain How the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation Modulates the Arctic Polar Vortex?

Abstract Idealized experiments with the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM) are used to explore the mechanism(s) whereby the stratospheric quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) modulates the Northern Hemisphere wintertime stratospheric polar vortex. Overall, the effect of the critical line emphasized in the Holton–Tan mechanism is less important than the effect of the mean meridional circulation associated with QBO winds for the polar response to the QBO. More specifically, the introduction of easterly winds at the equator near 50 hPa 1) causes enhanced synoptic-scale Eliassen–Palm flux (EPF) convergence in the subtropics from 150 to 50 hPa, which leads to the subtropical critical line moving poleward in the lower stratosphere, and 2) creates a barrier to planetary wave propagation from subpolar latitudes to midlatitudes in the middle and upper stratosphere (e.g., less equatorward EPF near 50°N), which leads to enhanced planetary wave convergence in the polar vortex region. These two effects are mechanistically distinct; while the former is related to the subtropical critical line, the latter is due to the mean meridional circulation of the QBO. All of these effects are consistent with linear theory, although the evolution of the entire wind distribution is only quasi-linear because induced zonal wind changes cause the wave driving to shift and thereby positively feed back on the zonal wind changes. Finally, downward propagation of the QBO in the equatorial stratosphere, upper stratospheric equatorial zonal wind, and changes in the tropospheric circulation appear to be less important than lower stratospheric easterlies for the polar stratospheric response. Overall, an easterly QBO wind anomaly in the lower stratosphere leads to a weakened stratospheric polar vortex, in agreement with previous studies, although not because of changes in the subtropical critical line.

On the relationship between QBO and distribution of tropical deep convection

There have been several observational and modeling analyses that have indicated that the stratospheric quasi‐biennial oscillation (QBO) significantly affects the tropical troposphere. This article aims to identify the QBO signal in tropical deep convection. Some difficulties in previous studies were ambiguities in the identification of tropical deep convection in observations, and also in separating the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and other tropospheric signals from QBO influences. We use a recent cluster analysis of 21.5 years of International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project tropical weather states to identify tropical deep convection and cirrus clouds, as well as 32.25 years of precipitation data as proxies for deep convection. Correlations between the QBO, ENSO, and other tropospheric patterns such as the tropospheric biennial oscillation and Pacific decadal oscillation are taken into account to isolate the influence of the QBO. Whereas tropical deep convection is mostly related to ENSO and the annual cycle, the QBO westerly phase, independent of the annual cycle as well as linear and nonlinear impacts of ENSO, leads to an eastward shift in the strength of meridional overturning contributions to the Hadley circulation over the Pacific and thus also affects the subtropical circulation. For deep convective clouds, relative differences in convective cloud cover between the QBO easterly and QBO westerly phases can be as large as 51% ± 7% of the annual average over isolated regions in the tropical west Pacific and 103% ± 35% over the east Pacific, where the absolute values are lower and where notable deviations occur during the QBO westerly phase.