East-west Sea Surface Temperature Research Articles

Contrasting Rainfall Anomaly Patterns Over South America Related to Central and Eastern Atlantic Niño Modes

ABSTRACTThe present study examines the effects of the central Atlantic Niño (CAN) and eastern Atlantic Niño (EAN) events on the seasonal precipitation in South America (SA) during the 1951–2020 period. For the CAN during the summer and autumn, an interhemispheric sea surface temperature (SST) dipole mode induces an anomalous thermally direct circulation in the 10° N–10° S band and is the main factor causing precipitation anomaly patterns with a dipole structure between northern (negative) and northeastern (positive) SA. For winter and spring, the SST pattern featuring a South Atlantic dipole induces meridional and zonal anomalous circulations, which are the mechanisms causing positive precipitation anomalies in tropical SA to the north of 20° S. In contrast, for the EAN, the precipitation anomaly patterns show large areas with anomalous dryness, particularly during summer, autumn, and spring. For summer and autumn, the east–west SST anomaly gradient in the equatorial Atlantic and the associated sea level pressure (SLP) anomalies induce equatorial westerlies and a regional Walker cell with descending motions in most tropical SA, where large areas with anomalous dryness are noted. During spring, a northward SST gradient in the tropical Atlantic induces a meridional cell with descending motions in the 0°–10° S band; meanwhile, the westward SST gradient in the equatorial Atlantic and tropical South Atlantic induces a zonal circulation with descending motions over northeastern and eastern Brazil. These descending motions extend the anomalous dryness over a large area. For the EAN events, the east–west SST gradient and the associated east–west circulation in the South American/Atlantic region are crucial elements to modulate precipitation variability in SA. Therefore, the CAN and EAN events induce distinct precipitation anomaly patterns in SA due to distinct associated regional circulation patterns. The results presented here have not been discussed before and might have relevant implications for climate monitoring and modelling studies.

Assessment of thermocline depth bias in the Seychelles-Chagos Thermocline Ridge of the Southwestern Indian Ocean simulated by the CMIP6 models

The Seychelles-Chagos Thermocline Ridge (SCTR, 5°S-10°S, 50°E-80°E) is a unique open-ocean upwelling region in the southwestern Indian Ocean. Due to the negative wind stress curl between the equatorial westerlies and southeasterly trade winds, SCTR is known as a strong upwelling region with high biological productivity, providing a primary fishing zone for the surrounding countries. Given its importance in shaping the variability of the Indian Ocean climate by understanding the sea-air interaction and its dynamics, the simulation of SCTR is evaluated using outputs from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase Sixth (CMIP6). Compared to observations, 23 out of 27 CMIP6 models tend to simulate considerably deeper SCTR thermocline depth (defined as the 20°C isotherm depth (D20))– a common bias in climate models. The deep bias is related to the easterly wind bias in the equatorial to southern Indian Ocean, which is prominent in boreal summer and fall. This easterly wind bias produces a weak annual mean Ekman pumping, especially in the boreal fall. Throughout the year, the observed Ekman pumping is positive and is driven by two components: the curl term, is associated with the wind stress curl, leads to upwelling during boreal summer to fall; the beta term, is linked to planetary beta and zonal wind stress, contributes to downwelling during boreal spring to fall. However, the easterly wind bias in the CMIP6 increases both the positive curl and negative beta terms. The beta term bias offsets the curl term bias and reduces the upwelling velocity. Furthermore, the easterly wind bias is likely caused by the reduced east-west sea surface temperature (SST) difference associated with a pronounced warm bias in the western equatorial Indian Ocean, accompanied by the east-west mean sea level pressure gradient over the Indian Ocean. Furthermore, this study finds local wind-induced Ekman pumping to be a more dominant factor in thermocline depth bias than Rossby waves, despite CMIP6 models replicating Rossby wave propagation. This study highlights the importance of the beta term in the Ekman pumping simulation. Thus, reducing the boreal summer-to-fall easterly wind bias over the Indian Ocean region may improve the thermocline depth simulation over the SCTR region.

Pleistocene Sunda Shelf submersion-exposure cycles initiate vegetation Walker Circulation feedback

Abstract Recent research has found that the subsiding Sunda Shelf (Southeast Asia) was permanently exposed prior to ca. 400 ka with initial submersion-exposure cyclicity, associated with interglacial-glacial sea-level cycles, beginning between 400 and 240 ka. We analyzed the impact submersion-exposure cycles on regional environment and climate through a 640 k.y. leaf-wax carbon isotope (δ13Cwax) reconstruction at Andaman Sea Site U1448, representing relative changes in C3/C4 plant abundances. Prior to ca. 250 ka, the Sunda region was inhabited by a stable C3 (forest) biome, after which submersion-exposure cycles initiated with the deglacial sea-level rise at ca. 250 ka. During subsequent glacial-age sea-level drops, the newly exposed shelf was rapidly colonized by C4 grasses, followed by slow transitions back to C3 forests, representing a tenfold increase in the variability of C3/C4 vegetation in the Sunda region. The C3/C4 regime shift since 250 ka is coherent across the Southeast (SE) Asia peninsula and Sunda Shelf and is coincident with a shift in the east-west sea-surface temperature gradient in the equatorial Pacific Ocean. We hypothesize that the expansion of C4 grasslands promoted and sustained drier glacial-age climates over SE Asia via a feedback mechanism that contributed to weakening the ascending branch of the east-west atmospheric circulation in the equatorial Pacific region known as the Walker Circulation. Our results indicate that the Sunda Shelf region has a larger influence on Walker Circulation than is seen in current paleoclimate simulations.

Weakening of decadal variation of Northern Hemisphere land monsoon rainfall under global warming

Over the past century, Northern Hemisphere (NH) land monsoon rainfall (NHLMR) experienced significant decadal to multidecadal variations, mainly driven by an east–west sea surface temperature (SST) contrast over the Pacific (EWPC) and an interhemispheric North Atlantic–South Indian Ocean SST dipole (NAID). However, how the NHLMR’s decadal variation would vary and whether the oceanic forcing could continue to drive it in a warming world remain unexplored. Here, by analyzing 24 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) models’ historical simulations and future projections, we show that the leading mode of decadal NHLMR will retain its nearly-uniform spatial pattern and representation of the NHLMR’s intensity. In the future, the significant periodicities of decadal NHLMR are shortened as emissions levels increase. The intensity of decadal NHLMR variation will experience a comprehensive decline under various emission scenarios, which may link to the weakened intensity of NAID and EWPC. Although the relationship between EWPC and decadal NHLMR is slightly weakened in the future, EWPC will remain a primary driver while NAID is no longer. The significant historical correlation between NAID and NHLMR is mainly attributed to the influence of increased anthropogenic aerosols emission. However, the NAID-NHLMR linkage would no longer exist owing to the decline of anthropogenic aerosol emission in the future.

The effect of the Pliocene temperature pattern on silicate weathering and Pliocene–Pleistocene cooling

Abstract. The warmer early Pliocene climate featured changes to global sea surface temperature (SST) patterns, namely a reduction in the Equator–pole gradient and the east–west SST gradient in the tropical Pacific, the so-called “permanent El Niño”. Here we investigate the consequences of the SST changes to silicate weathering and thus to atmospheric CO2 on geological timescales. Different SST patterns than today imply regional modifications of the hydrological cycle that directly affect continental silicate weathering in particular over tropical “hotspots” of weathering, such as the Maritime Continent, thus leading to a “weatherability pattern effect”. We explore the impact of Pliocene-like SST changes on weathering using climate model and silicate weathering model simulations, and we deduce CO2 and temperature at carbon cycle equilibrium between solid Earth degassing and silicate weathering. In general, we find large regional increases and decreases in weathering fluxes, and the net effect depends on the extent to which they cancel. Permanent El Niño conditions lead to a small amplification of warming relative to the present day by 0.4 ∘C, suggesting that the demise of the permanent El Niño could have had a small amplifying effect on cooling from the early Pliocene into the Pleistocene. For the reduced Equator–pole gradient, the weathering increases and decreases largely cancel, leading to no detectable difference in global temperature at carbon cycle equilibrium. A robust SST reconstruction of the Pliocene is needed for a quantitative evaluation of the weatherability pattern effect.

Hails in Ny Alesund, Svalbard-atmospheric vertical structure and dependence on circulation

Hails observed at Ny Alesund, Svalbard in the Arctic during December–February 2018–19 is examined along with the atmospheric circulation patterns. When hail was noticed, surface warming and southwesterly—westerly winds were noticed. Atmospheric circulation pattern was characterised by high pressure anomaly over northwestern Europe. High clouds as well as excess liquid water were present when the high pressure systems were active over northwestern Europe. This is because winds blowing over ocean collect more moisture as well as transport nucleating particles to Svalbard. Also, hourly winds from ERA 5 reanalysis indicated vertical shear required for hail formation. When hails were observed, mixed precipitation types were recorded with the maximum intensities arising from the hails. The West Spitzbergen Current (WSC) induces a strong east west sea surface temperature (SST) gradient in the ocean west of Svalbard. A corresponding gradient in the atmospheric temperature is also maintained by the WSC in the west to east direction in the lower atmosphere. Moisture laden westerlies cross the SST gradient and induce strong frontal activity in the lower atmosphere resulting intense precipitation and hail. The upward vertical velocity noted in the lower troposphere supports the frontal activity. Human activities in the Arctic as elsewhere are bound to increase. Hence, there is a need to study the intense precipitation in the Arctic as well as its reasons as it can impact the Arctic environment and human activity. This calls for more continuous observations to clearly identify mechanisms and frequency of intense precipitation in the Arctic.

Persistent Discrepancies between Observed and Modeled Trends in the Tropical Pacific Ocean

Abstract The trends over recent decades in tropical Pacific sea surface and upper ocean temperature are examined in observations-based products, an ocean reanalysis and the latest models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase six and the Multimodel Large Ensembles Archive. Comparison is made using three metrics of sea surface temperature (SST) trend—the east–west and north–south SST gradients and a pattern correlation for the equatorial region—as well as change in thermocline depth. It is shown that the latest generation of models persist in not reproducing the observations-based SST trends as a response to radiative forcing and that the latter are at the far edge or beyond the range of modeled internal variability. The observed combination of thermocline shoaling and lack of warming in the equatorial cold tongue upwelling region is similarly at the extreme limit of modeled behavior. The persistence over the last century and a half of the observed trend toward an enhanced east–west SST gradient and, in four of five observed gridded datasets, to an enhanced equatorial north–south SST gradient, is also at the limit of model behavior. It is concluded that it is extremely unlikely that the observed trends are consistent with modeled internal variability. Instead, the results support the argument that the observed trends are a response to radiative forcing in which an enhanced east–west SST gradient and thermocline shoaling are key and that the latest generation of climate models continue to be unable to simulate this aspect of climate change.

Mechanisms responsible for interdecadal variation of the thermodynamic component of East Asian summer monsoon moisture transport

AbstractIn this study, the East Asian summer (June–July–August) monsoon (EASM) atmospheric moisture transport variability under global warming are examined using ERA‐Interim reanalysis data from 1979 to 2019. The total EASM atmospheric moisture transport is decomposed into the thermodynamic (δTH) and dynamic (δMCD) components, which are related to specific humidity and wind velocity, respectively. Based on empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis, both the second and the fourth modes of δTH are linked to δMCD, indicating that δMCD can impact the moisture distribution and consequently influence δTH indirectly. Both the first (δTH_EOF1) and the third (δTH_EOF3) modes of δTH show considerable interdecadal changes. It is noted that their principal components exhibit significant increasing trends in recent decades. The response of EASM moisture transport to global warming is probably reflected in these two modes. δTH_EOF1 is associated with negative phases of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO)/Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). This causes the western North Pacific subtropical high (WNPSH) to extend westward and the strengthening of Pacific trade winds. As a result, positive precipitable water anomalies dominate East Asia and δTH_EOF1 is characterized by anomalous southwesterly moisture transport along the East China Sea to southern Japan. δTH_EOF3 corresponds to anomalous moisture transport over the Indochina Peninsula and Japan. The precipitable water associated with δTH_EOF3 in general represents a meridional dipole. Anomalous southward wind induced by the eastward extension of the WNPSH is the main reason for positive (negative) precipitable water anomalies in southern (northern) East Asian. The anomalous circulation associated with the anomalous east–west sea surface temperature gradient over the Indian Ocean affects atmospheric moisture in southern East Asian and can dramatically impact δTH_EOF3.

Pliocene decoupling of equatorial Pacific temperature and pH gradients.

Ocean dynamics in the equatorial Pacific drive tropical climate patterns that affect marine and terrestrial ecosystems worldwide. How this region will respond to global warming has profound implications for global climate, economic stability and ecosystem health. As a result, numerous studies have investigated equatorial Pacific dynamics during the Pliocene (5.3-2.6 million years ago) and late Miocene (around6 million years ago) as an analogue for thefuture behaviour of the region under global warming1-12. Palaeoceanographic records from this time present an apparent paradox with proxy evidence of a reduced east-west sea surface temperature gradient along the equatorial Pacific1,3,7,8-indicative of reduced wind-driven upwelling-conflicting with evidence of enhanced biological productivity in the east Pacific13-15 that typically results from stronger upwelling. Here we reconcile these observations by providing new evidence for a radically different-from-modern circulation regime in the early Pliocene/late Miocene16 that results in older, more acidic and more nutrient-rich water reaching the equatorial Pacific. These results provide a mechanism for enhanced productivity in the early Pliocene/late Miocene east Pacific even in the presence of weaker wind-driven upwelling. Our findings shed new light on equatorial Pacific dynamics and help toconstrainthe potential changes they will undergo in the near future, given that the Earth is expected to reach Pliocene-like levels of warming in the next century.

Sea Surface Temperature Variability over the Tropical Indian Ocean during the ENSO and IOD Events in 2016 and 2017

2016 and 2017 were marked by strong El Niño and weak La Niña events, respectively, in the tropical East Pacific Ocean. The strong El Niño and weak La Niña events in the Pacific significantly impacted the sea surface temperature (SST) in the tropical Indian Ocean (TIO) and were followed by extreme negative and weak positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) phases in 2016 and 2017, which triggered floods in the Indian subcontinent and drought conditions in East Africa. The IOD is an irregular and periodic oscillation in the Indian Ocean, which has attracted much attention in the last two decades due to its impact on the climate in surrounding landmasses. Much work has been done in the past to investigate global climate change and its impact on the evolution of IOD. The dynamic behind it, however, is still not well understood. The present study, using various satellite datasets, examined and analyzed the dynamics behind these events and their impacts on SST variability in the TIO. For this study, the monthly mean SST data was provided by NOAA Optimum Interpolation Sea Surface Temperature (OISST). SST anomalies were measured on the basis of 30-year mean daily climatology (1981–2010). It was determined that the eastern and western poles of the TIO play quite different roles during the sequence of negative and positive IOD phases. The analysis of air-sea interactions and the relationship between wind and SST suggested that SST is primarily controlled by wind force in the West pole. On the other hand, the high SST that occurred during the negative IOD phase induced local convection and westerly wind anomalies via the Bjerknes feedback mechanism. The strong convection, which was confined to the (warm) eastern equatorial Indian Ocean was accompanied by east–west SST anomalies that drove a series of downwelling Kelvin waves that deepened the thermocline in the east. Another notable feature of this study was its observation of weak upwelling along the Omani–Arabian coast, which warmed the SST by 1 °C in the summer of 2017 (as compared to 2016). This warming led to increased precipitation in the Bay of Bengal (BoB) region during the summer of 2017. The results of the present work will be important for the study of monsoons and may be useful in predicting both droughts and floods in landmasses in the vicinity of the Indian Ocean, especially in the Indian subcontinent and East African regions.

The role of internal variability in multi-decadal trends of summer rainfall over East Asia–Northwest Pacific

The impacts of internal variability on East Asia–Northwest Pacific (EA–NWP) summer rainfall trends on the multidecadal time scale are invested based on three large ensemble simulations, which have ensemble member of 30, 40 and 100. In all the three simulations, the summer rainfall trends during 1970–2005 are remarkably diverse across the individual ensemble members over the EA–NWP, and the signal-to-noise ratio is lower than 1 over the EA–NWP, suggesting a strong impact of internal variability on EA–NWP summer rainfall trends at this interval. Moreover, we found that the diversity of EA–NWP summer rainfall trends across individual members has a similar leading spatial pattern in all the three ensembles, featuring reverse trends between in Mei-yu region and in the tropical NWP. The leading pattern is likely caused by a gradient between the sea surface temperature (SST) trends in the North Indian Ocean (NIO) and in the tropical western Pacific (WP). When there is a warming trend in the NIO and a cooling trend in the tropical WP, a low-level anomalous anticyclone strengthens over the subtropical NWP, causing a dipole rainfall trend over the EA–NWP. The impact of the east–west SST gradient pattern is confirmed by numerical experiments. Our findings highlight that the internally-generated gradient of NIO–WP SST trends is an important source of the uncertainty in EA–NWP summer rainfall decadal changes in simulations.

Distinct atmosphere-ocean coupling processes on the onset phase of Indian summer monsoon during 2017 and 2018 as revealed through SCATSAT-1 and its comparison with CFSv2

ABSTRACT Distinct atmosphere-ocean coupled processes determine the inter-annual variability in the onset processes of Indian Summer Monsoon. In this work, we have analysed the distinct characteristics of onset process during 2017 (MOK17) and 2018 (MOK18) using SCATSAT-1 observations. Two years of dedicated SCATSAT-1 analysed winds and other flux datasets are used to understand distinct-coupled processes and further compared with coupled model forecasts from National Centres for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Climate Forecast System version 2 (CFSv2). Air-sea coupled mechanism during 2017 and 2018 suggests that there is a delayed response (about one pentad) of atmosphere-ocean coupling over North Indian Ocean on the monsoon onset and its propagation during 2018. It is found that the influence of cyclone Mekunu formed over Western Arabian Sea disturbed the onset vortex formed over Eastern Arabian Sea during MOK18. The presence of cyclone Mekunu results in a sudden spike of East-west Sea Surface Temperature gradient, Latent Heat Flux and wind stress over Arabian Sea during one pentad before monsoon onset over Kerala. This created an onset like situation in the next pentad, and later the conditions are not favoured for the further progress of the monsoon. It leads to a weak onset followed by a sluggish and halted northward progression of monsoon during 2018. In the absence of a cyclonic system during the onset phase of MOK17, conventional onset and its further progress took place during 2017. Further comparison of SCATSAT-1 and other analysed data sets with the CFSv2 model show that the CFSv2 model is able to capture the atmosphere-ocean coupled processes during the onset phase up to four pentads in advance during MOK17. However, due to the presence of Mekunu cyclone before the monsoon onset limited the forecast skill of CFSv2 only up to two pentads in advance during MOK18. We found that the presence of strong convective instability due to strong synoptic-scale system can influence the skill of coupled model forecast in the extended range. The new SCATSAT-1 observations provide high-quality observations that can be used to quantify the errors and identify common biases in the coupled models.

Anchoring of atmospheric teleconnection patterns by Arctic Sea ice loss and its link to winter cold anomalies in East Asia

AbstractIn this paper, the physical processes underlying recent winter cold anomalies over East Asia (EA) are examined via statistical analysis. It is found that the EA cold anomaly depends on the warming in the North Atlantic, sea ice loss in the Barents–Kara Sea (BKS), and atmospheric teleconnection patterns. Specifically, the sea ice loss in the BKS can anchor teleconnection patterns originating from different North Atlantic sea surface temperature (SST) patterns. Different patterns of North Atlantic warming can affect the position of the cold anomaly region through altering the atmospheric circulations. In addition, whether the relevant teleconnection pattern leads to enhanced cold anomaly over EA crucially depends on the sea ice loss in the BKS, because it can anchor the blocking anticyclone embedded in the teleconnection pattern over the Ural region and make it more persistent and quasi‐stationary. Furthermore, it is found that the role of SST modes in the EA cold anomaly depends on their time scales. Although the strong basin‐scale warming (north–south SST tripolar mode) in the North Atlantic mid‐ to high‐latitudes plays a major role in decadal (interannual) cold anomaly over EA, it appears that the Atlantic east–west SST dipole structure dominates winter temperature variations over EA in recent decades on both the interannual and decadal time scales.

What is the El Niño–Southern Oscillation?

The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a large-scale climatic phenomenon that originates in the tropical Pacific but affects global climate patterns. The warm phase is known as El Niño, and the cold phase, La Niña. El Niño occurs irregularly every 2 to 7 years and generally peaks during Northern Hemisphere winter. In a normal year, when ENSO is inactive, the equatorial Pacific trade winds blow from east to west. The winds push the warmer surface water towards the west, and colder water rises up from deeper in the ocean to replace it. This creates an east–west difference in sea-surface temperature (SST) and hence an east–west difference in sea level air pressure that maintains the trade winds and so drives a positive feedback loop (Figure 1(a)). During an El Niño year, the east–west SST difference weakens, the air pressure difference weakens, and the trade winds and their effects on the ocean weaken, so the eastern Pacific warms (Figure 1(b)). During a La Niña year, the opposite ­happens: the east–west difference in temperature strengthens, the pressure difference strengthens, and the trade winds and their effects on the ocean strengthen, so the east Pacific cools further (Figure 1(c)). Such changes in sea-surface temperature affect the atmosphere over vast areas, with both local and global repercussions. Locally, during the El Niño phase, the associated atmospheric circulation changes drive increased atmospheric convection and precipitation over the central and eastern Pacific, while rainfall is reduced over the western Pacific. These changes have remote impacts throughout the tropics but also at higher latitudes via large-scale motion of the atmosphere, especially when ENSO is at its strongest in winter. A network of ocean buoys measure sea surface temperature, ocean currents and the wind. Satellites also provide surface temperature and ocean current data, providing the ability to monitor ENSO in real time. El Niño months can be predicted in advance by measuring the heat content of the upper ocean, one of the precursors for the onset of El Niño, and then using climate models to predict its evolution. Although various criteria exist, an El Niño event is normally said to be underway when the sea surface temperature in the equatorial Pacific (officially called the ‘Niño 3.4’ region) rises by +0.5 degC above the historical average for at least three months in a row. The strongest impacts are experienced by those countries near the tropical Pacific origin of ENSO. Changes in surface temperature, wind and moisture affect rainfall intensity and patterns, which can lead to extreme events such as flooding and drought. During an El Niño event, Peru, Ecuador and southeastern parts of South America receive heavy rainfall. In northern Brazil, drier conditions or even drought may result. Indonesia, South Asia and parts of Australia are also more likely to experience drought during the El Niño phase. The change in weather patterns associated with El Niño can greatly impact the economy, in particular agriculture, water resources, fisheries and public health. ENSO also has a strong influence on the occurrence and intensity of tropical cyclones, and Atlantic hurricane activity weakens during El Niño but strengthens during La Niña. In the UK we experience the socio-economic impacts of an El Niño event, partly through increased food prices, and there are effects on the jet stream and European weather, especially in late winter, when El Niño increases the chances of cold snaps and La Niña increases the chances of wet and stormy conditions. El Niño releases heat to the atmosphere and increases subsequent global temperatures. For example, global average temperatures for 2016 were around 1.1 degC above pre-industrial values, and the strong El Niño episode of 2015/2016 partly contributed to this rise. However, researchers have concluded that the warming from this El Niño accounted for only about 0.2 degC of this overall figure. Because of the large event-to-event variability of El Niño, we don't have enough past years of observations to show how climate change may impact it. There is now some evidence that rainfall may increase during El Niño events in the future and that we may even see more very strong ENSO events, but these remain active research questions. Real-time observational monitoring of the tropical ocean and El Niño are available from NOAA at: https://www.pmel.noaa.gov/tao/drupal/disdel/ Met Office Hadley Centre forecasts of El Niño and global temperature can be found here: https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/seasonal-to-decadal/gpc-outlooks/el-nino-la-nina Forecasts from other prediction models provided by the International Research Institute for Climate and Society are available here: https://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/enso/current/

The phase differences of the interdecadal variabilities of tropical cyclone activity in the peak and late seasons over the western North Pacific

This study compares the interdecadal variations in tropical cyclone (TC) activities over the western North Pacific (WNP) basin during the peak season (July–September) and late season (October–December) of 1955–2014 and explores the possible physical mechanisms behind the variations. Both the peak- and late-season tropical storm (TS) days show distinct interdecadal variations, while the late-season TS days lead the peak-season TS days by approximately 4 years on an interdecadal time scale. The late-season TC activity is related to the east-west sea surface temperature (SST) gradient across the equatorial Pacific. The westerly winds induced by the SST gradient can reduce the vertical wind shear and increase the low-level vorticity, which favors TC genesis over the TC genesis region. The peak-season TC activity appears to relate to the SST gradient between the Indian Ocean and the Central Pacific. The westerly wind induced by the SST gradient can reduce the vertical wind shear and increase the mid-level relative humidity, thereby enhancing the TC activity. The full picture of the interdecadal variation in the WNP TC activity during the peak and late seasons revealed in this study provides a new perspective on the seasonal TC forecasts and future projections.

Relative roles of differential SST warming, uniform SST warming and land surface warming in determining the Walker circulation changes under global warming

Most of CMIP5 models projected a weakened Walker circulation in tropical Pacific, but what causes such change is still an open question. By conducting idealized numerical simulations separating the effects of the spatially uniform sea surface temperature (SST) warming, extra land surface warming and differential SST warming, we demonstrate that the weakening of the Walker circulation is attributed to the western North Pacific (WNP) monsoon and South America land effects. The effect of the uniform SST warming is through so-called “richest-get-richer” mechanism. In response to a uniform surface warming, the WNP monsoon is enhanced by competing moisture with other large-scale convective branches. The strengthened WNP monsoon further induces surface westerlies in the equatorial western-central Pacific, weakening the Walker circulation. The increase of the greenhouse gases leads to a larger land surface warming than ocean surface. As a result, a greater thermal contrast occurs between American Continent and equatorial Pacific. The so-induced zonal pressure gradient anomaly forces low-level westerly anomalies over the equatorial eastern Pacific and weakens the Walker circulation. The differential SST warming also plays a role in driving low-level westerly anomalies over tropical Pacific. But such an effect involves a positive air-sea feedback that amplifies the weakening of both east–west SST gradient and Pacific trade winds.

Reply to comment by Karnauskas et al. on “Equatorial Pacific coral geochemical records show recent weakening of the Walker circulation”

In our paper describing a new coral record from Butaritari, we hypothesized that comparing the temporal trends in our records to coral records from farther east in the equatorial Pacific may support the evidence for a weakening of a Walker circulation, documented elsewhere in the literature [Power and Smith, 2007; Tokinaga et al., 2012]. Weakening of the Walker circulation is expected under global warming due to an imbalance in the rate of change in different aspects of the hydrological cycle [Vecchi and Soden, 2007]. We thank Karnauskas et al. [2015] for recognizing the value of our Butaritari coral climate reconstruction, and we appreciate their critique of our study. The Karnauskas et al. [2015] analyses strengthen our argument regarding the utility of interisland coral-proxy derived sea surface temperature (SST) gradients as a Walker circulation metric, but we disagree with their interpretation of decadal variability in our records. Here we provide additional analyses, which confirm that our reconstruction [Carilli et al., 2014] shows a long-term weakening of the Walker circulation over 1972-1998. We also document that significant decadal variations in Walker circulation strength, and for particular choices of start and end years over which trends are calculated, are able to show slight Walker strengthening. Overall, we conclude that Walker circulation variations are more nuanced than either our original publication [Carilli et al., 2014] or the subsequent Karnauskas et al. [2015] comment would suggest. Karnauskas et al. [2015] also provide a detailed analysis of Equatorial Undercurrent (EUC) activity near the Gilbert Islands and argue that the EUC does not strongly affect Butaritari. Our original publication did not claim to find significant EUC/Butaritari linkages, and we appreciate the diligence of Karnauskas et al. [2015] for ruling this out as a possibility.

Possible roles of regional SST anomalies in long-term changes in the relationship between the Indian and Australian summer monsoon rainfall

The present study investigates long-term changes in the relationship between interannual variations of the Indian monsoon rainfall (IMR) and the Australian monsoon rainfall (AMR) during the period 1900–2010. It is found that the relationship between austral summer AMR and the following boreal summer IMR (denoted as the AMR-IMR relationship) is negative during 1900–1930 and 1960–1990, but weak positive during 1930–1960. This long-term change in the AMR-IMR relationship is more prominent than the change in the relationship between boreal summer IMR and the succeeding austral summer AMR (denoted as the IMR-AMR relationship). The impact of regional sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies north of Australia on the IMR to AMR transition has experienced obvious changes during the analysis period. The long-term change in the IMR-AMR relationship is attributed to the change in impacts of regional SST anomalies north of Australia and their coherence with equatorial Pacific and tropical Indian Ocean SST anomalies. It is found that the east-west SST anomaly gradient in the North Indian Ocean is an important factor in the IMR variations. The impact of the North Indian Ocean zonal SST anomaly gradient on the AMR to IMR transition has changed largely during the analysis period. This appears to be a major reason for the long-term change in the AMR-IMR relationship. The changes in the impacts of regional SST anomaly or SST anomaly gradient are associated with changes in the amplitude of regional SST anomalies that are likely due to the change in the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-related SST anomaly pattern.

Andean elevation control on tropical Pacific climate and ENSO

Late Cenozoic marine proxy data record a long-term transition in the tropical Pacific from El Nino-like conditions with reduced zonal sea surface temperature (SST) gradient, deepened thermocline, and reduced upwelling in the eastern equatorial Pacific (EEP) to conditions similar to modern. This transition coincides with kilometer-scale uplift of the central Andes. To understand whether the rise of the Andes contributed to tropical Pacific climate evolution, we performed experiments with the National Center for Atmospheric Research's Community Climate System Model version 4 to quantify changes in tropical Pacific climate and El Nino–Southern Oscillation as a function of Andean elevations. Our results demonstrate that uplift increases the equatorial east-west SST gradient and Walker circulation. The rise of the Andes from 1 to 3 km increases the SST gradient by 0.8°C and Walker circulation by 60% due to strengthened radiative cooling by enhanced low-cloud formation in the EEP. This cooling effect is largest in the southeastern tropical Pacific and accounts for about one half of the reconstructed SST cooling along the Peru coast. The uplift also strengthens upwelling north of the EEP, consistent with documented increases in biological productivity in this region, and decreases the frequency of El Nino–Southern Oscillation and the number of strong El Nino events. Simulated responses to Andean uplift are generally consistent with the late Cenozoic proxy records, but too small in magnitude. Taken together, our results indicate that Andean uplift was likely one of the multiple factors that contributed to the long-term evolution of both the mean climate state and the interannual variability in the tropical Pacific.

State of the tropical Pacific Ocean and its enhanced impact on precipitation over East Asia during marine isotopic stage 13

Multiple terrestrial records suggest that marine isotopic stage 13 (MIS-13), an interglacial period approximately 0.5 million years ago, had the strongest East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) of the last one million years. This is unexpected given that, compared to other interglacials, MIS-13 was globally cooler with a lower CO2 concentration. We use two coupled atmosphere–ocean general circulation models, the Hadley Centre Coupled Model, version 3 (HadCM3) and Community Climate System Model, version 3.0 (CCSM3), to simulate the climate of MIS-13 forced with different insolation and greenhouse gas concentrations relative to the pre-industrial (PrI) situation. Both models confirm a stronger EASM during MIS-13 compared to PrI. Here we specially focus on analyzing the impact of the tropical Pacific Ocean on the EASM. Our simulations suggest that the mean climatic state in the tropical Pacific during MIS-13 was La Nina-like and thatassociated teleconnections with the extra-tropics favored increased precipitation over the EASM. As compared to PrI, it is found that the summer (June–July–August) sea surface temperature (SST) is warmer in the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean and colder to the west. In concert with previous studies, we show that colder summer SSTs in the central tropical Pacific during MIS-13 promotes an upperlevel teleconnection between the tropical Pacific Ocean and EASM. It also contributes to the strengthening of the northern Pacific subtropical high and, therefore, the transport of more moisture into the EASM. We suggest that the reduced east–west SST difference in the tropical Pacific in summer helps to maintain the teleconnection between the tropical Pacific and EASM. The correlation between tropical Pacific SSTs and the EASM was higher in our MIS-13 simulations, further supporting the enhancement of their relationship. It is found that the pure impact of El Nino Southern Oscillation on EASM precipitation increases by up to 30 % in MIS-13 for HadCM3 while it is minor for CCSM3. Better constraining the spatio-temporal variability of tropical Pacific SST during the interglacials may thus help explain the anomalously strong EASM during MIS-13 which has been observed from geological records.